While we may pass the time guessing about what he wants, what really matters is what he can get. What he wants would only matter if one expected to close this war through negotiations. Negotiations mean both sides give up something. Ukraine simply cannot yield an inch because that would mean Russia just regroups and comes back while Ukraine is that much weaker. And I doubt anyone believes whatever guarantee Russia can offer that they will not. They signed five different treaties wherein they promised to leave Ukraine alone.