Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

A tale of two US's.

1) U.S. says Russia's progress in Donbas has been "minimal at best"



2) Look at (Vladimir) Putin, what he did going into Ukraine. I think it’s backfired on him. I think (Russia’s) going to have a lot of problems because of this. But he would not have done that if he didn’t think Biden was a pushover
-- DeSantis, blaming Biden for Ukraine

Incidentally, DeSantis, considering that Russia is losing way more than they expected and can afford to...if Russia did invade because of Biden, didn't Biden just win? The damage to Russia's military, economy, infrastructure and standing have been decimated and no US troop fired a shot.

"a risk and casualty aversion"

What...? Russians? Is the man serious?

[zealo]

Bolded: yet. But they're less likely to throw a huge hissy fit over that because Finland has 0 intention of coming their way and Finland isn't the 'cradle of the Rus'.

(Ukraine also has 0 intentions to go to Russia, but Russia manufactured a territorial dispute.)

Even if Russia wanted to, Finland would be a hard nut to crack for the Russian military, especially with how depleted it is getting over it's operations in Ukraine.

Finland is big enough to have a lot of defensive depth in relatively rough terrain, alongside a highly modernized army with a wartime strength of some 280k.

[Vladier]

"a risk and casualty aversion"

What...? Russians? Is the man serious?

Once bitten, twice shy?

That said, it's probably too late for that change in strategy to achieve anything. The initial underestimation of Ukraine's capabilities cost Putin too much already. He would most likely need to declare this conflict a war in order to recoup the losses in manpower, and that would be a gamble that is simply not in his favour.

[Gorsameth]

To an extent that's true. NATO has been involved before in conflicts they weren't defending anything over.

That being said, NATO isn't the cause anyway. Anyone that thinks that is ignorant. Lavrov was spouting off in 2005 about how Ukraine was free to join NATO if it wanted. When other countries, the Baltic states for instance, joined up, Russia sorta just shrugged. (These countries directly border it). Finland is about to join and it's not moving to stop that from happening.

For all this talk of "NATO's eastward expansion made us do this" few are pointing out the most recent countries to join it were west of existing members.

Lets be real, if Russia wasn't busy throwing away its military might they might do more to stop Finland from joining. I feel like Russia doing nothing is more to do with Russia not being able to do anything then not wanting to do something.

[Endus]

And it's also a fact that any cease-fire where Russia holds on to parts of those regions will be seen as unstable; as Russia might continue their previous attacks at any time, similarly as they started this in 2014 and continued in 2022 - obviously it will take time for the Russian bear (who seems to be a drunk circus-bear) to heal its bloodied paws, and at the same time Ukraine would want to re-take the entire regions, when Russia falls further into chaos.

Let's also recall there was an outstanding agreement between Ukraine and post-Soviet Russia, an official treaty, which stated that Ukraine would disarm it's then-massive nuclear weapons stock in exchange for Russia never violating its borders or sovereignty.

An agreement that, obviously, was directly and unjustifiably violated in 2014 and 2022, both.

Ukraine can't take Russia's word for anything in any new agreement; Russia's already demonstrated they don't consider their word to be binding.

This likely isn't gonna end until the West obliges Russia to, at a minimum, tear down Putin's administration and hand Putin and his worst cronies over to The Hague for prosecution for war crimes and atrocities.

And yet, most of their bases tend to be on the east of the countries they are in. Again, do not forget the paranoid neighbor.

Those bases were largely established during the Cold War, when the USSR was an actual and constant threat.

So this is more like the paranoid neighbour throwing Molotovs at my house because I put a concrete wall between us, because his dad used to just straight shoot at us with a high-powered rifle.

And you're taking the violent nutcases' side in this, for some goddamned reason.

[Breccia]

What...? Russians? Is the man serious?

I believe he's referring to more recent events, since the restructure of the offensive offensive, and yes. Putin's willingness to throw his people's lives away for no reason is well-known, but the 9th is in six days. His ability to fool grieving widows, parents, and children grow weaker and weaker the more of them there are. You've seen it yourself, Russia isn't pushing as hard recently as they have overall.

But yes, I stopped at that line, too.

Also, while I resisted the temptation to publish the earlier rumors, increasingly valid sources are supporting the idea that Putin will put the war on autopilot while he takes a break for cancer surgery.

For the record, I'm not sure I believe this -- yes, we've all seen the videos of him pale and shaking and afraid to be near people -- but it does bring up a good question. Let's say Putin, for whatever reason, dies. Based on what we know about Russian oligarchy and the state of affairs, then what?

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Lets be real, if Russia wasn't busy throwing away its military might they might do more to stop Finland from joining. I feel like Russia doing nothing is more to do with Russia not being able to do anything then not wanting to do something.

Well hold on, they're not doing nothing. They're angrily shaking their fist!

Let's be honest, Russia was never really going to fuck with Finland. One, Finland is populated by 95% badasses and 5% escaping Swedes. Two, Finland is in such good graces of the rest of EUrope and the USA that actually attacking them was never an option. The world is apparently ok watching Ukraine slow Russia to an embarrassing crawl, but they would not be okay with Finland being attacked. Three, while Russia clearly misjudged Ukraine's willingness to roll over and surrender, there was no misjudgement with Finland, who everyone knew would not. And four, Finland has an impermeable defense made of lethal sauna temperatures and salmiakki that no foreigner can survive for more than a few minutes.

[zealo]

Well hold on, they're not doing nothing. They're angrily shaking their fist!

Let's be honest, Russia was never really going to fuck with Finland. One, Finland is populated by 95% badasses and 5% escaping Swedes. Two, Finland is in such good graces of the rest of EUrope and the USA that actually attacking them was never an option. The world is apparently ok watching Ukraine slow Russia to an embarrassing crawl, but they would not be okay with Finland being attacked. Three, while Russia clearly misjudged Ukraine's willingness to roll over and surrender, there was no misjudgement with Finland, who everyone knew would not. And four, Finland has an impermeable defense made of lethal sauna temperatures and salmiakki that no foreigner can survive for more than a few minutes.

Don't shit on Salmiak, that stuff is amazing

[Breccia]

Don't shit on Salmiak, that stuff is amazing

I know from firsthand experience this is an objective lie. I would rather jump directly into freezing water than have more.

Oh wait, I literally did.

[Iphie]

I believe he's referring to more recent events, since the restructure of the offensive offensive, and yes. Putin's willingness to throw his people's lives away for no reason is well-known, but the 9th is in six days. His ability to fool grieving widows, parents, and children grow weaker and weaker the more of them there are. You've seen it yourself, Russia isn't pushing as hard recently as they have overall.

But yes, I stopped at that line, too.

Also, while I resisted the temptation to publish the earlier rumors, increasingly valid sources are supporting the idea that Putin will put the war on autopilot while he takes a break for cancer surgery.

For the record, I'm not sure I believe this -- yes, we've all seen the videos of him pale and shaking and afraid to be near people -- but it does bring up a good question. Let's say Putin, for whatever reason, dies. Based on what we know about Russian oligarchy and the state of affairs, then what?

I've been seeing those rumours as well. Interesting to read the words used, 'needed surgery but not in a hurry', like what does that mean? If the rumours are true the surgery had been delayed already once as well. (in other publications)

Should he die I assume that first the constitution will kick in, in order to provide a stable stage. Then Patrushev will be in charge for as long as he can hold on to power. Remember, being the heir apparent and actually getting into power are two different things, just ask Trotsky and in Russia being the perceived successor does paint a nice bullseye on one's head.

A power struggle will likely ensue, which won't make the war any easier so the army might withdraw.

Well hold on, they're not doing nothing. They're angrily shaking their fist!

Let's be honest, Russia was never really going to fuck with Finland. One, Finland is populated by 95% badasses and 5% escaping Swedes. Two, Finland is in such good graces of the rest of EUrope and the USA that actually attacking them was never an option. The world is apparently ok watching Ukraine slow Russia to an embarrassing crawl, but they would not be okay with Finland being attacked. Three, while Russia clearly misjudged Ukraine's willingness to roll over and surrender, there was no misjudgement with Finland, who everyone knew would not. And four, Finland has an impermeable defense made of lethal sauna temperatures and salmiakki that no foreigner can survive for more than a few minutes.

As a Dutchman I LOVE salmiakki, as a BLACK Dutchman I get a LOT of weird looks here in Finland eating salmiakki.

[Breccia]

Should he die I assume that first the constitution will kick in

Sorry, I meant to ask what will happen with regards to the Ukraine war. Like, will Russia change their mind? Go from half-assing it to quarter-assing it? Sprint to the negotiation tables? Weep like a child before the UN and claim they were only following orders?

I LOVE salmiakki

(shudders in disbelief) I've tasted paving surfaces in winter that were more appealing.

[Vladier]

For the record, I'm not sure I believe this -- yes, we've all seen the videos of him pale and shaking and afraid to be near people -- but it does bring up a good question. Let's say Putin, for whatever reason, dies. Based on what we know about Russian oligarchy and the state of affairs, then what?

I see a few variants:

1) Someone comes into power who denounces Putin's actions, blames everything bad and every failure on him and his close circle (except the useful people, like Nabiulina), retires said circle, purges those disagreeing with the new government line and washes their hands off this war and then hands Ukraine Donbass on a silver platter (and if those in charge of it disagree, they will be included in Putin's circle, if not from the get-go), possibly pays some token reparations (or rather, takes them as debt). Crimea remains de-facto Russian, but will be essentially the southern Kuril Islands of Eastern Europe and will be a point of diplomatic talks for years to come. Ukraine and Europe are "happy" with the results, those disagreeing are marginalized, sanctions are lifted, the parts of Russian population radicalized by Putin's propaganda are a problem for another day.

2) Someone comes into power who is Putin 2.0 and continues in his stead. The war continues as usual. Since Putin's propaganda paints him as essentially the Saviour of Russia and The Only Competent Politician Ever, discontent follows, and we repeat this variant (+1 to Putin version) or return to variant 1 after a coup.

3) Someone actually sane comes to power, end this war, reveal the crimes, prosecutes the guilty, promises to work on joining EU, the stars align, Mighty Cthulhu awaken from his slumber in R'Lyeh, etc. Russia finally becomes a normal country.

[Breccia]

3) Someone actually sane comes to power, end this war, reveal the crimes, prosecutes the guilty, promises to work on joining EU, the stars align, Mighty Cthulhu awaken from his slumber in R'Lyeh, etc. Russia finally becomes a normal country.

...so, not equally likely options, huh?

[Iphie]

Sorry, I meant to ask what will happen with regards to the Ukraine war. Like, will Russia change their mind? Go from half-assing it to quarter-assing it? Sprint to the negotiation tables? Weep like a child before the UN and claim they were only following orders?

All of the above? Depends probably on what they think they can get away with, but at a minimum I'd expect a request for a cease fire and withdrawal to fallback positions in order to be able to make decisions. Although there's a chance Putin has already said what should happen in such a case it's anyone's guess if those orders would actually be followed.

(shudders in disbelief) I've tasted paving surfaces in winter that were more appealing.

LOL! We have something similar in the Netherlands, so we have little issue with it.

[Azadina]

Well hold on, they're not doing nothing. They're angrily shaking their fist!

Let's be honest, Russia was never really going to fuck with Finland. One, Finland is populated by 95% badasses and 5% escaping Swedes. Two, Finland is in such good graces of the rest of EUrope and the USA that actually attacking them was never an option. The world is apparently ok watching Ukraine slow Russia to an embarrassing crawl, but they would not be okay with Finland being attacked. Three, while Russia clearly misjudged Ukraine's willingness to roll over and surrender, there was no misjudgement with Finland, who everyone knew would not. And four, Finland has an impermeable defense made of lethal sauna temperatures and salmiakki that no foreigner can survive for more than a few minutes.

Five: This country will never accept a Russian puppet government. So best he could gain by invading is....nothing. People would resist. Molotov cocktail should be familiar to Ruskies already.

[Breccia]

People would resist. Molotov cocktail should be familiar to Ruskies already.

Didn't you literally invent those?

[Iphie]

Didn't you literally invent those?

Yep, to go with the molotov breadbasket the Soviets so graciously supplied...

[Vladier]

...so, not equally likely options, huh?

Not at the present, at least. Current Russian administration and state apparatus seems to be infected with Fascism of the Brain, and those that aren't are most likely under the effects of induced delirium from those that are. I give much better chances if Putin dies in an idealistic popular uprising, for which his propaganda-based power column will have to shatter first.

[Cynep]

I'm not really concerned with anything happening in American but once Ukraine hopefully starts taking back it's eastern territory where there are alot of ethnically Russian Ukrainians there is a significant risk to that population, be it revenge attacks by civilians or actual government restrictions and this kind of dehuminization really doesn't help with that.

I wouldn't worry about that. There are 3 languages used the most in Ukraine: proper Ukrainian, low-status creole "surzhyk", and proper Russian. And in many videos I saw, many Ukrainian fighters speak proper Russian. There can be no ill will from Ukrainian-Ukrainians towards their Russian-Ukrainian brethren fighting together against the Kremlin. Not all Russians are imperialists, and Ukrainians see that with their own eyes.

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I'll repeat it again and I have no issue saying this. The only realistic, non-fantasy way this will come to an end is through agreement and in this agreement Ukraine will have to give up some stuff at least for the time being.

There are two non-fantasy ways. First is a peace deal, second is a very long ceasefire with frozen frontlines. Like in Korea. Like in Western Sahara. Like Russia and Japan are still not at peace since 1945. Like Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria. Like parts of Ukraine were annexed/controlled by Russia 2014-2022. None of those involved a peace treaty. Yes, a peace treaty is better, but it's Russia who will have to give something up for it to happen, not Ukraine - because the situation is reversed from 2014, no one is believing Kremlin lies about a civil war and Ukrainians hitting themselves. So for Russia it's either fighting forever under sanctions, or territorial integrity of Ukraine restored. Ukrainians don't need to agree to anything less, it's not 2014 anymore.

[Azadina]

Didn't you literally invent those?

Refined into a weapon and coined the term anyway. Similar ones were used couple years prior in Spanish war.

[Specialka]

True, but if Ukraine agrees to a cease-fire (or even peace) without some of their currently recognized territory that may change.

I'm not telling Ukraine to do that, just that I don't think that the EU/NATO should block a cease-fire if Ukraine for some reason desires it, even though I have doubts about the feasibility of that outcome and I would prefer a different one.

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I actually doubt that Russia would prefer to have the missiles pointed elsewhere - because Russia also want to be seen as a super-power and the missile-pointing project the image of Russia as a super-power.

But it also gives them cause to "play the victim" and bully their neighbor.

Obviously, dealing with a paranoid state armed with nukes is complicated.

We could ask them to join us but they do not share our values in the slightest.