Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Draco-Onis]

Sanctions are working. Putin is back to the 'if you need gas, lift sanctions. Please.' stage.

That's not the way I see it, Europe was going to cut off the gas next year by cutting it early he is hurting the EU before they do and looks stronger domestically.

[jonnysensible]

Sanctions are working. Putin is back to the 'if you need gas, lift sanctions. Please.' stage.

Not to mention (im sure someone has already) that Russia announced 10% budget cuts across the board. 24bn.

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That's not the way I see it, Europe was going to cut off the gas next year by cutting it early he is hurting the EU before they do and looks stronger domestically.

Not with them budget cuts. Not to mention all the shortages starting to hit home. Factories closed for things like cars (no chips). People will be out of work and the state will be cutting services.

[Draco-Onis]

Like I said, Putlers fixation on uniting Slavs and becoming a Russian legend may not be a common sentiment among his peers. Replacing him could very well create a power struggle and make ruskies fuck off from Ukraine, something defo worth having. Also, NK citizens are waaaay more repressed than Russians. We JUST had a bunch of regional politicians speaking against Putler, something unheard of a year ago.

Most people will just want to keep their head down and live their lives, Russian citizens are sadly used to things sucking. I don't see the possibility of mass uprising, replacing him doesn't address the core problem at the heart of Russia which is mainly economic. It's too late now but things could have turned out much different if we took the same approach we did with Japan during the collapse of the Soviet Union instead we told them to fuck off.

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Not with them budget cuts. Not to mention all the shortages starting to hit home. Factories closed for things like cars (no chips). People will be out of work and the state will be cutting services.

They have been going through that for a while now so yeah the sanctions have done what they were supposed to do already.

[Makabreska]

That's not the way I see it, Europe was going to cut off the gas next year by cutting it early he is hurting the EU before they do and looks stronger domestically.

Don't use Shalker talk of "sanctions hurt West more than Russia" on us. Doesn't matter how strong he looks domestically (for now), the fact is, he is loosing his most valuable client (Europe), and is replacing it with China, who will take his gas no probs, but at a discount. Putler had all the power in 20y to reform his country, yet he decided to turn it into a gas station. Well, tough break! EU ain't buying any more!

[Draco-Onis]

Don't use Shalker talk of "sanctions hurt West more than Russia" on us. Doesn't matter how strong he looks domestically (for now), the fact is, he is loosing his most valuable client (Europe), and is replacing it with China, who will take his gas no probs, but at a discount.

I am not taking that line I am simply stating that if he let Europe cut off the gas it would be in their timeline where it wouldn't hurt. Of course this is a big loss for Russia which is the last part we haven't seen the effect they can't make up for EU with China, India and other countries due to logistical problems.

[Gabriel]

Most people will just want to keep their head down and live their lives, Russian citizens are sadly used to things sucking. I don't see the possibility of mass uprising, replacing him doesn't address the core problem at the heart of Russia which is mainly economic. It's too late now but things could have turned out much different if we took the same approach we did with Japan during the collapse of the Soviet Union instead we told them to fuck off.

The core problem that russia has is not an economic one.

[Gorsameth]

I frankly don't see Russia backing down, there is no off ramp being offered aside from total capitulation and that would be a disaster for them.

To be fair, with the way things are going right now this war may end sooner rather then later even without Russia choosing to back down. Ukraine is still advancing and receiving weapons/supplies while Russia is leaving theirs behind for Ukraine to re-purpose.

[jonnysensible]

They have been going through that for a while now so yeah the sanctions have done what they were supposed to do already.

And what they will continue to do. Thats the point. The will cause deep damage to Russia, the longer they are imposed the worse it will get. It also ruins supply chains.

[Poopymonster]

A nuclear power going into a civil war will totes not result in unknown future problems of greater magnitudes to your children.

That would be incentive for Adults to step in. Yes, the US has a history as clean as a babies diaper when it comes to "stepping into another countries politics". I am normally against it. None of those previously were fully nuclear capable to my knowledge, which is an incentive to not fuck it up.
If I'm wrong about the nuke thing, I'll rethink things.

[Iphie]

Curious

So, if I understand this correctly the civilians got "proper", individual graves, while the soldiers got put in a mass grave?

[zealo]

I frankly don't see Russia backing down, there is no off ramp being offered aside from total capitulation and that would be a disaster for them.

The way this is going at present for Russia, Russia may end up not getting a choice in the matter of whether to back down before they're kicked back behind their own side of the border.

[Nymrohd]

Don't use Shalker talk of "sanctions hurt West more than Russia" on us. Doesn't matter how strong he looks domestically (for now), the fact is, he is loosing his most valuable client (Europe), and is replacing it with China, who will take his gas no probs, but at a discount. Putler had all the power in 20y to reform his country, yet he decided to turn it into a gas station. Well, tough break! EU ain't buying any more!

Only China will not take his gas because it just can't. They are already using the pipelines they have to buy discount gas. They can build more pipelines to allow for it but that takes time. In the meantime if they stop selling to Europe at some point they'll max out storage and just waste product (that moment may have already passed).

[Ripster42]

Only China will not take his gas because it just can't. They are already using the pipelines they have to buy discount gas. They can build more pipelines to allow for it but that takes time. In the meantime if they stop selling to Europe at some point they'll max out storage and just waste product (that moment may have already passed).

And w/out access to western tech, a lot more of the wellheads they have to close won't be able to be reopened.

[postman1782]

Putins copium supplies must be masssive

But his troop and military supplies aren't.

[zealo]

Only China will not take his gas because it just can't. They are already using the pipelines they have to buy discount gas. They can build more pipelines to allow for it but that takes time. In the meantime if they stop selling to Europe at some point they'll max out storage and just waste product (that moment may have already passed).

Russia just burning gas into the atmosphere have already started happening, e.g the BBC reported this near the end of August.

[Forogil]

I am not taking that line I am simply stating that if he let Europe cut off the gas it would be in their timeline where it wouldn't hurt.

On the other hand before that move Putin could (and did) constantly reduce or threaten to cut off gas supplies. Now that leverage is gone.

[Osmeric]

Debunking the claim that Russia has weathered the economic sanctions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omdq2EvM1dQ

[Corvus]

Putin is now making threats against Starlink and other private satellites.

https://www.space.com/russia-private...united-nations

I guess he is jealous that private companies have better satellites than Russua does. But whatever you do Putin, don't go giving Musk any ideas on going full evil genius. It wouldn't take much for him to put an ICBM in operation.

[Bakis]

Putin is now making threats against Starlink and other private satellites.

https://www.space.com/russia-private...united-nations

I guess he is jealous that private companies have better satellites than Russua does. But whatever you do Putin, don't go giving Musk any ideas on going full evil genius. It wouldn't take much for him to put an ICBM in operation.

More useless postering from a regime that cant even equip nor train its troops.

[Nymrohd]

Russia just burning gas into the atmosphere have already started happening, e.g the BBC reported this near the end of August.

Υeah tbh I was pretty sure it was happening I was just too lazy to search for a source