2023-2024 NFL Thread

[Tech614]

Well let's be honest, Jackson probably isn't playing into his mid to late 30s. Like Cam Newton and Russel Wilson before him, guys that run this much are inevitably going to end up hitting the RB Cliff before they hit the QB Cliff. And that's why there's no chance he's going to get a long-term fully guaranteed deal. Because he's already got an injury history and the way he plays his career really could end in one hit.

Steve Young was a running QB that people said would have his career end doing that. Ironically his career ended on a hit in the pocket. Blind side hits in the pocket are far more dangerous for QBs than what they take on rushing plays because it's a lot easier to protect yourself when you see the hit coming.

Lamar Jackson also ironically just got injured while in the pocket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOjvmxQmcS0 So I don't even know what this take is about. That injury happens regardless of him being a running QB or not.

I think running QBs hit a wall and fall off because their athleticism fades, as is the case with Newton and Wilson. Once the athleticism go's they are just lesser talented passers who are no longer serious rushing threats. It's not really about injuries because they are still far more likely to be injured in the pocket than they are running.

[cordrann]

Steve Young was a running QB that people said would have his career end doing that. Ironically his career ended on a hit in the pocket. Blind side hits in the pocket are far more dangerous for QBs than what they take on rushing plays because it's a lot easier to protect yourself when you see the hit coming.

Lamar Jackson also ironically just got injured while in the pocket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOjvmxQmcS0 So I don't even know what this take is about. That injury happens regardless of him being a running QB or not.

I think running QBs hit a wall and fall off because their athleticism fades, as is the case with Newton and Wilson. Once the athleticism go's they are just lesser talented passers who are no longer serious rushing threats. It's not really about injuries because they are still far more likely to be injured in the pocket than they are running.

Newton is out of the league because of his inability to throw due to his injuries. He was still a tremendous runner and athlete the last time he played. You're also ignoring that running hits are expected and pocket hits shouldn't even be happening if you're o line is doing it's job. Running qbs also tend to get hit in the back field more often because they tend to hold the ball for longer, which is literally highlighted in that Lamar Jackson clip. A pocket passing QB throws that ball away and never takes the hit.

[draynay]

Newton is out of the league because of his inability to throw due to his injuries. He was still a tremendous runner and athlete the last time he played. You're also ignoring that running hits are expected and pocket hits shouldn't even be happening if you're o line is doing it's job. Running qbs also tend to get hit in the back field more often because they tend to hold the ball for longer, which is literally highlighted in that Lamar Jackson clip. A pocket passing QB throws that ball away and never takes the hit.

You can slide on the run, you can't slide in the pocket. There are arguments to be made for every scenario, but perfect OLine play isn't one of them, nobody avoids sacks indefinitely.

[Tech614]

Newton is out of the league because of his inability to throw due to his injuries. He was still a tremendous runner and athlete the last time he played. You're also ignoring that running hits are expected and pocket hits shouldn't even be happening if you're o line is doing it's job. Running qbs also tend to get hit in the back field more often because they tend to hold the ball for longer, which is literally highlighted in that Lamar Jackson clip. A pocket passing QB throws that ball away and never takes the hit.

Oh man you sure have it figured out. Perfect OL play, why haven't NFL coaches thought of this?!

Russell Wilson was also one of the best at throwing the ball away and avoiding sacks btw. So much for the running QBs are bad at that I guess. On the contrary, the less athletic the QB is the harder it will be for them to get out of the pocket and be allowed to throw the ball away.

I'll put this hypothetical out there for you, is Josh Allen safer lowering his shoulder and running into a LB himself or getting drilled from his blind side without bracing for the impact? Which one do you think is more likely to ever shorten his career? That's just Josh Allen also, most running QBs are way more likely to slide or run out of bounds than him taking 0 contact. Jackson rarely takes big hits running the ball.

[cordrann]

You can slide on the run, you can't slide in the pocket. There are arguments to be made for every scenario, but perfect OLine play isn't one of them, nobody avoids sacks indefinitely.

Oh man you sure have it figured out. Perfect OL play, why haven't NFL coaches thought of this?!

Russell Wilson was also one of the best at throwing the ball away and avoiding sacks btw. So much for the running QBs are bad at that I guess. On the contrary, the less athletic the QB is the harder it will be for them to get out of the pocket and be allowed to throw the ball away.

You guys are both totally missing the point. Even with a bad offensive line, a primarily pocket centric QB is going to be hit significantly less total number of times than a running QB, and on top of this there are a significant number of rules that limit how defenders can hit QBs in the pocket that don't apply as soon as he becomes a runner.

I'd also like point out that Russell Wilson has consistently been in the top 5 for the number of sacks he takes over the course of the season, so I'm really not sure wtf you are even talking about there.

[Tech614]

You guys are both totally missing the point. Even with a bad offensive line, a primarily pocket centric QB is going to be hit significantly less total number of times than a running QB, and on top of this there are a significant number of rules that limit how defenders can hit QBs in the pocket that don't apply as soon as he becomes a runner.

I'd also like point out that Russell Wilson has consistently been in the top 5 for the number of sacks he takes over the course of the season, so I'm really not sure wtf you are even talking about there.

How many times do you think running QBs are actually hit when running the ball? I feel like you don't watch that much of the league because outside of Josh Allen and before him Cam Newton there really isn't any other starting QB that doesn't try to avoid contact when running. Like Lamar Jackson rarely takes clean hits on designed runs.

I should correct myself if you thought I meant Russell Wilson didn't take a lot of sacks. He also avoided a hell of a lot of sacks and was a pain in the ass for defensive lines to actually get to, but yes he was usually around 4-6 in the league in total sacks taken which isn't that big of a deal when its about 5 or less separation from middle of the pack. A QB like Brady who deathly fears any contact at all is ofc going to have less sacks because the dude will rarely take the risk but the NFL sack leader is usually some less mobile QB playing with a dog shit OL and usually a good 10 sacks or more ahead of where Wilson was. It wasn't until the latter half of his career when the dude started creeping up on 50 sack seasons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOjvmxQmcS0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWowKCcErD4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK6A9mgBG-A

Like the dude is not being injured from rushing the football. He is getting injured from plays where he is passing the ball from the pocket, passing the ball on a screen pass or his center blasting the snap over his head. It is a completely false narrative to claim Jackson is injury prone because of his rushing.

[Kyanion]

Russell Wilson was also one of the best at throwing the ball away and avoiding sacks btw.

LOLwut? He averages over 40 sacks a year. (55 last year btw). To compare it: Brees 21, Brady 25, Mahomes 20. Even Josh Allen is around 30 a year. I'd say the closer comp to Russel Wilson could be Kyler Murray, both of them hold on to the ball too long and take sacks trying to extend plays.

- - - Updated - - -

So much for the running QBs are bad at that I guess. On the contrary, the less athletic the QB is the harder it will be for them to get out of the pocket and be allowed to throw the ball away.

Dude have you went and looked at QB stats before talking out of your ass? Tom Brady would be considered very unathletic in his final years and in his last 5 years was not sacked more than 27 times.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll put this hypothetical out there for you, is Josh Allen safer lowering his shoulder and running into a LB himself or getting drilled from his blind side without bracing for the impact? Which one do you think is more likely to ever shorten his career? That's just Josh Allen also, most running QBs are way more likely to slide or run out of bounds than him taking 0 contact. Jackson rarely takes big hits running the ball.

Amount of times sacked per game on average:
Lamar Jackson 1.89
Russel Wilson 2.79
Justin Herbert 2.06
Josh Allen 1.96
Kyler Murray 2.3
Patrick Mahomes 1.51
Drew Brees 1.46
Tom Brady 1.69

Notice something about mobile QBs not named Mahomes?
And for fun, Joe Burrow 2.95 (Bengals O-line is lol).

[Tech614]

snip

I mean I'm not even arguing against any of these points. You are absolutely right with them. Lamar Jackson however is not taking tons of contact from rushing the ball nor has he gotten injured rushing the ball. Again, saying he is more injury prone because he runs the ball is completely false. If you want to say he should have better pocket presence you can go right ahead but that has nothing to do with him being a mobile QB.

[Kyanion]

I mean I'm not even arguing against any of these points. You are absolutely right with them. Lamar Jackson however is not taking tons of contact from rushing the ball nor has he gotten injured rushing the ball. Again, saying he is more injury prone because he runs the ball is completely false. If you want to say he should have better pocket presence you can go right ahead but that has nothing to do with him being a mobile QB.

I'm not saying he's more injury prone from running, the point is he is injury prone period, right now.

[Tech614]

I'm not saying he's more injury prone from running, the point is he is injury prone period, right now.

My original reply was about rushing QBs being more injury prone, not if Jackson himself is injury prone from getting hit in the pocket. Hell the only QB I saw get injured on a rushing play last year was Trey Lance(might of been others, just saying what I saw) and meanwhile 3 other 49ers QBs got injured sitting in the pocket.

[Vetali]

Russell Wilson was also one of the best at throwing the ball away and avoiding sacks btw.

Can't tell if trolling or not. I figured after last season people realized that old man Pete was right about Wilsons inability to get rid of the ball and try to play hero ball while taking sacks. Maybe we need another season of his bullshit to iron it in.

[Tech614]

Can't tell if trolling or not. I figured after last season people realized that old man Pete was right about Wilsons inability to get rid of the ball and try to play hero ball while taking sacks. Maybe we need another season of his bullshit to iron it in.

Again since this keeps getting misinterpreted, Wilson was absolutely hanging onto the ball too long trying to make something happen. That's not what I'm saying there at all. A QB who was not Wilson, playing like Wilson would of likely had 60 sacks a season, not 40 thus we was good at avoiding sacks his play style just naturally led to a lot cause yes the dude absolutely danced around forever trying to avoid defenders until he couldn't anymore.

Like you as a seahawks fan should absolutely know how frustrating it was to watch defenders try to sack the dude only for him to escape and throw the ball. Yea plenty of times where he didn't escape also. He was absolutely not a fun QB to play against because when he was getting away from the defense it was a nightmare. And no his playstyle absolutely doesn't work well into his 30s.

[Kyanion]

My original reply was about rushing QBs being more injury prone, not if Jackson himself is injury prone from getting hit in the pocket. Hell the only QB I saw get injured on a rushing play last year was Trey Lance(might of been others, just saying what I saw) and meanwhile 3 other 49ers QBs got injured sitting in the pocket.

Sure but perhaps him being a rushing QB is a negative in this situation. What do running QBs tend to do? Or at least highly mobile QBs, they try to extend the play leading to more sacks/hits. The sack numbers for Jackson aren't extreme Wilson/Burrow levels but they ARE higher than some longstanding traditional pocket QBs. You have to look at the whole package with Lamar and he takes more hits than most QBs, running or not.

- - - Updated - - -

Again since this keeps getting misinterpreted, Wilson was absolutely hanging onto the ball too long trying to make something happen. That's not what I'm saying there at all. A QB who was not Wilson, playing like Wilson would of likely had 60 sacks a season, not 40 thus we was good at avoiding sacks his play style just naturally led to a lot cause yes the dude absolutely danced around forever trying to avoid defenders until he couldn't anymore.

40 is not good at avoiding sacks no matter how much he can extend plays. Yes he made crazy plays at times but it also cost his team with his hero ball. And a 'QB who was not Wilson playing like Wilson' what does that shit even mean?

[cordrann]

I mean I'm not even arguing against any of these points. You are absolutely right with them. Lamar Jackson however is not taking tons of contact from rushing the ball nor has he gotten injured rushing the ball. Again, saying he is more injury prone because he runs the ball is completely false. If you want to say he should have better pocket presence you can go right ahead but that has nothing to do with him being a mobile QB.

I couldn't find a recent stat, but in 2020 he was getting hit on about 50% of his runs. Lamar is also the anomaly of all anomalies when it comes to this too, he is probably the best at avoiding contact of any running qb, but this is still fairly regular contact. It also isn't just about freak season ending injuries, it is about the basic wear and tear that running in general and any sort of physical contact has on the body and how that makes it more prone to injury from other things.

All that said, I still think it is probably worth it to give Lamar a 5 year deal if you are the right team fit for him even if you think he will only be good for 3, and I think the Ravens are making a mistake not getting it done. If he leaves, the Ravens are probably not very good, and if he stays he isn't happy, which typically doesn't work out great for teams. This just seems like a lose-lose situation that the Ravens put themselves in.

[eschatological]

Well let's be honest, Jackson probably isn't playing into his mid to late 30s. Like Cam Newton and Russel Wilson before him, guys that run this much are inevitably going to end up hitting the RB Cliff before they hit the QB Cliff. And that's why there's no chance he's going to get a long-term fully guaranteed deal. Because he's already got an injury history and the way he plays his career really could end in one hit.

Josh Allen plays far more physically than Lamar and got mega-paid. Same draft year, 1 less MVP.

- - - Updated - - -

I personally think Jackson is a runner first, qb second. And running backs don't often continue to have peak years after age 25 in the NFL. Ravens were smart to get the cost controlled age 26 year, and hell, getting 2 first round picks back isn't a bad deal either.

It feels like you've never watched Lamar throw. It's not his fault Greg Roman created this weird running game featuring Lamar where he rushed for over 1k+ yards twice as a QB.

[Tech614]

Josh Allen plays far more physically than Lamar and got mega-paid. Same draft year, 1 less MVP.

This is the thing that astounds me the most. People always want to complain about Lamar running yet he gets down or oob before defender gets a clean hit on the majority of his runs meanwhile Josh Allen is running like a power RB trying to run over LBs with no intention of avoiding contact and gets none of the same criticism. Because Josh Allen hasn't gotten injured while trying to pass the ball in the pocket I guess /shrug. Either way though both are far more likely to get injured taking a big hit in the pocket than on their 150 rushing attempts where they can see hits coming.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...01uuwfzt4rm82s

The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays.

Just tired of that played out narrative that running QBs are more injury prone when the reality is they fade out faster than pocket passers because lateral agility is the first thing to go with age which leads to their old instincts being bad at older age. The same is true for RBs for the people that keep bringing up that comparison. RBs don't usually retire because of injuries, it's because they aren't shifty enough anymore and why pay some slowed down vet a vet min when you can get some 21 year old in the 4th round who runs circles around them for half the price.

Lamar Jackson might very well be injury prone now if he can't put together a full season but it's not because god gifted him wheels when the dude has never been injured on a rushing play.

[eschatological]

Josh Allen also gets sacked at a similar, or maybe even worse rate than Lamar. Dude gets pounded all the time. Our O-Line has been weak for almost his whole career. He's hurt his throwing arm twice in his career, his shitty second half of the year was almost entirely on an injury he suffered in our first game to the Jets, which we lost. No hesitations in paying him.

Most of the Lamar situation comes down to 1) the old boy's club of not wanting to deal with a player without an agent, where backroom collusion often goes against the player's interest, and 2) the soft bigotry of thinking he's not as tough, mentally or physically, as Josh Allen. Josh Allen is physically bigger, but he also plays that way - Jackson is pretty smart on what hits he takes and doesn't take. A tweet came out this week questioning Lamar's sleeping and eating habits, which is as dogwhistle-y as it comes. No one questions when Josh pounds beers at various events through the season.

[draynay]

Also worth pointing out that Watson is a runner who gets sacked a lot, had a major knee injury and severe off field problems and still got the deal he got.

[cordrann]

Also worth pointing out that Watson is a runner who gets sacked a lot, had a major knee injury and severe off field problems and still got the deal he got.

I'm not really sure that is worth pointing out when much of Lamar's issues have to do with that specific deal and most of the other owners in the league being furious with the Browns for giving it to Watson and setting that precedent. Most of the owners absolutely loathe fully guaranteed contracts because they are required to put the entire amount in escrow upfront.

[eschatological]

But keep in mind the NFL is way behind the other leagues in that regard. The NHL fully guarantees every contract. Okay, well, their top players are in the 11-12m a year range, maybe that's no big deal. Well, MLB guarantees contracts too. Even the NBA guarantees more money than football on a contract-to-contract basis.

NFL owners would likely respond to that that 1) they have to pay a small army of players, as opposed to 25 (hockey), 20ish once you include all the pitchers (baseball), and like 12-14 (NBA), and 2) football is the most violent and injury prone of those leagues. Well, guess what, they're also the most profitable league and print billions of dollars every year, despite the large roster sizes. The Washington Commanders are about to sell for SIX BILLION DOLLARS. Time to pay up front.