VoA and RNG.

[Forumone]

Thanks but that's not actually true. If we were dealing with a non-random system with 19 possible outcomes it would br too small a sample. As everyone has pointed out this is a random system. Thus we can analysis this sample size within the following two assumptions:

1). The gear drops randomly along class line, making each class a nice simple 0.1 probability. This is what most people assume happens.

2). The gear drops randomly from a gear pool, not character based. Thus each character has 1-3 sets or a total pool of 19 sets. This makes the chance each set item drops about 0.0526.

If we look at the data provided assumption 1) fails totally. Three classes as a spike is about 0.02 likely given the sample size. The second assumption is more within our sample, only two classes fall more than 0.33 outside their predicted values. Paladins and Deathknights. Priests fall an a reason chance of occuring given their smaller size but DK's and pally's are way out.

If it turns out the second assumption is how blizzard is distributing gear then that is a weighted or bias set along character lines. So again anyone got any other info, I assume guilds that use DKP or "suicide kings" style of loot sharing can provide information there.

[Nalok]

One time I was the only hunter in the raid and 3 hunter 8.5 gloves droped it was hilarious.

[Evilmoo]

i've been doing voa since it has been out on my druid (main) and i HAVE NOT seen ANY moonkin gear AT ALL. though on previous reset Furious moonkin legs dropped, which were useless...
probably RNG gods are angry on me.

[BigGann]

Atleast i now know im not the only unlucky priest around.

Count me in to that group, saw one piece of priest gear ever in vault, on my pally.

[Advent]

>.> Are you guys STILL going on about this crap? I wish I could lock posts. Sheesh.

[Karalius]

TO OP:

well i did VOA every week from when EMALON was added to the instance.
that's every reset, for what half a year or so? can't even remember.

I am a death knight tank and i NEVER had any dk piece drop, not dps tier piece, not tanking piece, not even a pvp piece and not only on emalon, archavon didnt drop anything either (altho i don't need anything from him, pvp gear would have been nice).
And all of this, not only in 25, in 10 man also. Not a single piece of any gear usable by DK's for shit load of weeks :|

[Quillu]

exakt same for us, 10000 dk, lots of druid, some hunter/mage, nothing for the rest.

oh, no shaman for us though, sucks =[

rng... l2livewithit

[Nixia]

Atleast i now know im not the only unlucky priest around.

You should've joined my run. the priest got 2 parts from emalon and 1 from the old one .

As said before, rng is rng. I have seen 1 warlock part drop from emalon since he was added, but i've seen alot of dk and rogue items.

[rabbimojo]

Intersting that alot of people seem to have a dominant class that drops. I guess ours might just be more obvious than some. To those saying random is random do you know of items drop dissproportionatly we do.

The "Sigil of the Vengful heart" for us has a near certainty of dropping as does "idol of the crying wind". We aren't too fussed as there isn't much left off those two bosses anyone wants. Interestingly enough we have "guiding star" at over half of all encounters is something no-one has complained about. We don't have enough samples to say these are the exact percentages, well not for the star anyway, but the other two have failed to drop only once.

For us, it's been Lotrafen. Dropped so many times that it's free to take if you want it.. Until I bring my new DK in, who hasn't seen a 2h weapon drop in 4 clears of Naxx and 3 clears of Uld10, as well as weekly clears of eoe10. Then Lotrafen decides not to drop. :P

Anyways, easy way to examine this topic is Wowhead.
VoA link is: http://www.wowhead.com/?zone=4603
You can check empirical normal/heroic drop rates for both bosses. As you can see on say Emalon25, the purist set gear actually does seem to have a 10% drop rate, whereas the hybrid set rates seem to be divided by # of roles (and thereby, sets). e.g. 10% for purists; 5% for warriors, priests, DKs; 3% for druid, shaman, and paladin.

[Khayman]

Random is random.

Besides, is not consistent at all with what I saw in my experience, where it dropped mostly warlock and warrior pieces. Also, I saw just one single druid drop in all my VoAs.

I can understand why they banned you.

[Pheonixis]

Go run the instance 1'000'000 times. If you're still getting the same results, then perhaps you're on to someting.

[Deleted]

Weird, on my last VoA run I saw 3 priest drops. Yea, 3 out of 8.

[Pyrostemplar]

Threads like this exist since WotLK WoW Launch. PLEASE stop them. Random Loot is random, and was ever since.

If you don't want to raid/pvp for your gear, why would you even need it?

Did a small fix

Loot is random. I trully believe so. Why?

Becaus it would be a lot more trouble to create a biased loot sistem than just to run a rnd generator on a pre-existing loot table, thats why.

So: Loot is random

Now, don't get me started on why it took me about 44 Draki kills to get my mage DS1 chest (a 12.5% drop chance) or why it took over two years to get poli turtle tome (about 50 runs), just to see it drop 3 times in the 5 following visits to the fish boss.

Because it is random and we find patterns according to our perceptions. We remember all the unluycky rolls but tend to forget the more comon lucky ones. We overstate extremes and rare events.

Loot is random.

[Deleted]

Deathknight 28
Shaman 21
Druid 16
Mage 8
Hunter 8
Warrior 5
Rogue 4
Warlock 2
Paladin 2
Priest 0

I have walked in with my Priest shortly after reaching 80. In the very first run, the PvE gloves dropped, together with a mage piece. My girlfriend went to her second VoA run, as the only Priest and two Priest items dropped.

Morale of the story?

Overall statisticly seen, your zero-drop for Priests was "compensated" by the immense luck for me and my girlfriend, and I am sure others will confirm not having seen any DK items drop in a few runs, which also compensates" for the many drops you experienced.

Random loot is random and the drop percentages are correct.

[Teneal]

If I flip a coin 100 times and get lucky and get heads 100 times it doesn't mean the 101st toss can't be tails. Random loot are random.
/thread

[sbradly1986]

blizz in fact hates u....
a hidden calculator searches thru ur guilds data base, finds wot u need most and makes VoA not drop it.. it then claculates the amount of tears u produce and it increases its own happiness accordingly...

is this wot u wanted to hear? im not sure

random is random is random...wot more do u want?

[Pheonixis]

blizz in fact hates u....
a hidden calculator searches thru ur guilds data base, finds wot u need most and makes VoA not drop it.. it then claculates the amount of tears u produce and it increases its own happiness accordingly...

It's a conspiracy! Worse than the moonlanding!

[Nellylacra]

Oh noes no welfare epics for ur class. qfuckingq

[CrazyChic]

I can personally offer some evidence that will show you that the RNG truly is random. Last night our guild did 25 VoA and the following dropped:

Emalon:
Furious Hunter Gloves
Furious Hunter Pants
T8.5 Hunter Gloves
Furious Cloth Bracers

Archavon:
Deadly Hunter Pants
Deadly Paladin Pants
T7.5 Hunter Gloves
T7.5 Hunter Chest

As you might have guessed, we had one hunter with us that night that already had all of that. 6/8 pieces went to waste. Meanwhile, I (DK) haven't gotten a single piece of gear out of 25 VoA except for a ring.

edit: typo

I would love to see a SS of this, this seems extremely unlikely

[Forumone]

"Jr. Member

Posts: 79

Re: VoA and RNG.
« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2009, 04:22:30 am »

If I flip a coin 100 times and get lucky and get heads 100 times it doesn't mean the 101st toss can't be tails. Random loot are random.
/thread"

Really if you did that, I would take heads there is something wrong with that coin. Which is part of this discussion.