Settling Crit vs Mp5, and while we're at it, trinkets.

[Kairu]

I'm getting kind of sick of all these Crit vs Mp5 threads. So I pulled this up from an EJ thread

I posted this on the WoW forums about a week ago, in hopes of getting a little developer attention, but I'm going to re-post it here for the EJ community to go over my math and make sure I'm not missing anything:



Every source of mana can be boiled down to a set amount of mp5. If a fight lasts a certain amount of time, and you gain a certain amount of mana, you can derive how much mp5 you earned from that source. With critical strike rating it is a little more difficult due to the inherent RNG -- I've got 45% crit fully raid buffed, but I've seen fights where I pulled both 30% effective crit and 60% effective crit. So, for the purpose of these calculations, I will be calculating the mana that you should gain from crit, not the mana you always will.

I am going to be calculating the amount of mana gained by 1 Critical Strike Rating, not illumination in general. Even if these changes go through, illumination will continue to be an amazing talent due to all our baseline crit and the crit we gain from raid buffs. The real question is, should we continue to itemize for crit, and this what I intend to answer.

The value of crit is dependent on your cast rate. If you cast no spells, you gain no mana from crit. If you cast a lot of spells you gain a lot of mana from crit. Therefore, I am going to be using the stats HLPM (holy lights cast per minute), HSPM (holy shocks cast per minute) and FoLPM (flashes of light cast per minute) to calculate the returns you're receiving from crit rating with certain rates of spellcasting.

The basic formula is (3.1):

HLPM * 764.4 (mana gained from a holy light crit) * 0.0002178 (additional crit added from 1 crit rating expressed as a decimal) * 1/12 (amount of mp5 ticks in one minute)
+
HSPM * 474.6 (mana gained from a holy shock crit) * 0.0002178 (additional crit added from 1 crit rating expressed as a decimal) * 1/12 (amount of mp5 ticks in one minute)
+
FoLPM * 184.2 (mana gained from a flash of light crit) * 0.0002178 (additional crit added from 1 crit rating expressed as a decimal) * 1/12 (amount of mp5 ticks in one minute)
equals the amount of MP5 one critical strike rating is worth on this particular fight.

This breaks down to this nice and easy formula:
(0.01387386 * HLPM) + (0.00861399 * HSPM) + (0.00334323 * FoLPM) = mana return from 1 crit rating stated in mp5.

In 3.1, 10 critical strike rating is worth as many item points as 4 mp5. This means when plugging numbers into this formula, if you end up with 0.4 or more, critical strike rating is as good as or better than mp5 on a per item point basis. If you end up with less than 0.4, mp5 is outperforming crit on a per item point basis.

Now, to put some numbers in those holes. As you can guess, the value of crit rating is going to change based on which fight you're on. The more you spam, the more it's worth and vice versa. I'm going to start out using some personal parses, and then I am going to take a couple parses from WMO's top HPS list to illustrate both the normal scenarios and the extreme scenarios.

1a. Thorim Hard Mode, personal WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
21.03 HLPM, 5.52 FoLPM, 2.24 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.3295 MP5, or 82.38% as effective as MP5.

2a. Hodir Hard Mode, personal WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
22.92 HLPM, 1.04 FoLPM, 2.78 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.3454 MP5, or 86.35% as effective as MP5.

3a. Assembly of Iron Hard Mode, personal WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
21.28 HLPM, 2.94 FoLPM, 2.08 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.3230 MP5, or 80.7% as effective as MP5.

1b. Thorim Hard Mode, top raw HPS parse on WMO WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
28.30 HLPM, 4.82 FoLPM, 1.09 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.4181 MP5, or 104.53% as effective as MP5.

2b. Hodir Hard Mode, top raw HPS parse on WMO that isn't skewed by JoL WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
27.3 HLPM, 0.00 FoLPM, 5.32 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.4246 MP5, or 106.15% as effective as MP5.

3b. Assembly of Iron Hard Mode, top raw HPS parse on WMO that isn't skewed by JoL WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
32.7 HLPM, 0.00 FoLPM, 0.38 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.4549 MP5, or 113.74% as effective as MP5.

In short: Depending on how much you spam and whether or not you're trying to cheese a WMO top parse, crit rating can vary between 80% as effective as MP5 and 115% as effective as MP5 per item point with 3.1 numbers.

What happens when you apply the 3.2 changes to these numbers? To do that, we halve the effective MP5 of crit, and the value of one item point of MP5 increases to 0.5. If you do that...

Example 1a becomes 0.16475 MP5, or 32.95% as effective as MP5.
Example 2a becomes 0.1727 MP5, or 34.54% as effective as MP5.
Example 3a becomes 0.1615 MP5, or 32.3% as effective as MP5.
Example 1b becomes 0.2091 MP5, or 41.81% as effective as MP5.
Example 2b becomes 0.2123 MP5, or 42.46% as effective as MP5.
Example 3b becomes 0.2275 MP5, or 45.49% as effective as MP5.

In short: At best, post 3.2, crit will be worth half the amount of mana as mp5 is per item point spent. At worst, it is worth a third the amount. Also keep in mind that with less mana, our ability to spam decreases, and with less spam we get less return from crit -- bringing this numbers further. In conclusion, I plan on avoiding crit like the plague.

So, looking at the final examples, even under chain cast conditions, crit is 45.49% effective in terms of regen than mp5.

In terms of item level on gear

2 crit rating = 1mp5.

In terms of regen equivalence

2 crit rating = 0.9098 mp5.

Since 0.9098 is less than 1, that means that it is inferior. Done.

[Kairu]

Dont feel like doing the math on here, but this is a notepad I have saved to my desktop for rough mp5 values of trinkets for holy paladins.

Meteorite Crystal - Algalon 10: 151.4 mp5

Heroic Solace - ToGC25 - Jaraxxus: 144 mp5

Solace - ToC25 - Jaraxxus: 128 mp5

Tears of the Vanquished - ToC5: 94.4 mp5

Purified Lunar dust - 60 frost badges:87 mp5

Sliver - ICC10, Marrowgar: 67.1mp5

Sif's Remembrance - Ulduar 10, Thorim hardmode: 65mp5

Talisman of Resurgence - 50 triumph badges: 59.2mp5

Pandora's Plea: - Ulduar25, mimiron 49.95mp5

[SchickySC]

"In short: At best, post 3.2, crit will be worth half the amount of mana as mp5 is per item point spent. At worst, it is worth a third the amount. Also keep in mind that with less mana, our ability to spam decreases, and with less spam we get less return from crit -- bringing this numbers further. In conclusion, I plan on avoiding crit like the plague."

You are incorrect in your summary if you are basing it off that line.

Itemization: 2crit = 1mp5

ACTUAL VALUE: 4crit = 1mp5

Rethink how it's worded. Although personally I would value it at around 3crit = 1mp5.

[SchickySC]

Also, your value of Purified Lunar dust is skewed. On a super short fight you may get 100mp5, but most boss fights in progression, you'd get maybe 80-85. I would NEVER use it over Tears. Ever.

[Kairu]

"In short: At best, post 3.2, crit will be worth half the amount of mana as mp5 is per item point spent. At worst, it is worth a third the amount. Also keep in mind that with less mana, our ability to spam decreases, and with less spam we get less return from crit -- bringing this numbers further. In conclusion, I plan on avoiding crit like the plague."

You are incorrect in your summary if you are basing it off that line.

Itemization: 2crit = 1mp5

ACTUAL VALUE: 4crit = 1mp5

Rethink how it's worded. Although personally I would value it at around 3crit = 1mp5.

Just using the example of 3b, which is the most ideal condition, little moving, just sit there and cast.

Also, your value of Purified Lunar dust is skewed. On a super short fight you may get 100mp5, but most boss fights in progression, you'd get maybe 80-85. I would NEVER use it over Tears. Ever.

I havn't really found a concrete proc chance (or bothered to test) but given 15s duration, 45 ICD, thats 1/3rd uptime.

304*0.3333 = 101.232.

On average, give or take depending on when the fight ends it may be worth less, yes, but the Tears also depend on @uptime of DP and replenish, and the values I gave are 100% uptime, and DP on every cooldown. Depending on fights you won't be doing this (Think festergut, don't want DP during 3rd inhale, sometimes its not safe during 2nd inhale either) And will diminish in value since you're holding back.

[serrikard]

Just using the example of 3b, which is the most ideal condition, little moving, just sit there and cast.

I havn't really found a concrete proc chance (or bothered to test) but given 15s duration, 45 ICD, thats 1/3rd uptime.

304*0.3333 = 101.232.

On average, give or take depending on when the fight ends it may be worth less, yes, but the Tears also depend on @uptime of DP and replenish, and the values I gave are 100% uptime, and DP on every cooldown. Depending on fights you won't be doing this (Think festergut, don't want DP during 3rd inhale, sometimes its not safe during 2nd inhale either) And will diminish in value since you're holding back.

That's pretty much as I'm finding in RL .. it seems to proc around every 50ish seconds depending on your cast frequency and just how much you're going flat out. I'm finding the uptime around a max of 30% . however, that really depends on the actual encounter length more than anything .. some encounters, far less, just because it didn't have a chance for that next proc.

If you are yawning and basically facerolling .. you're looking at a proc a minute .. but if you are using everything you got, and 100% activity it's pretty much every 47-50 seconds.

and of course, that's when you atypically need the mana in the first place.

[SchickySC]

I've tested it numerous times outside of raids. The proc chance IS 10%. Wowhead it. Given 1.3sec holy lights you'll proc it within 13ish seconds. You may get a proc per minute or so, 1/4th uptime = 76mp5 worst case.

Every 47-50 seconds? That would be a 35%+ proc chance since you can only get 3.5ish holy lights from 45sec to 50sec.

Lets do an average. 10% is 10 casts @ 1.3seconds HL. Take human error/latency/movement into account and your probably looking at 15seconds.
15 seconds / 2 is 7.5. It will take an average of 7.5 seconds to proc.
45icd+7.5 = 52.5
Assuming a 6 minute fight. 6x60 = 360.
360/52.5 = 6.8 (Rounded down of course) procs
Each proc is with 912 mana.
912x6 = 5472 mana over 360 seconds.
15.2x5 = 76mp5.

Changing to 7 minute fight.
7x60=420
420/52.5 = 8 (smack on no rounding) (Best case scenario)
912*8 = 7296 over 420
17.37x5 = 87mp5

Still less than tears, neglecting SP because i'd rather have the initial INT than the extra SP, since im already at 2800ish unbuffed.


"Just using the example of 3b, which is the most ideal condition, little moving, just sit there and cast."
"3b. Assembly of Iron Hard Mode, top raw HPS parse on WMO that isn't skewed by JoL WoW Meter Online - Combatlog Replay
32.7 HLPM, 0.00 FoLPM, 0.38 HSPM, total value of 1 crit rating is 0.4549 MP5, or 113.74% as effective as MP5."

All you did was take the .45 and double it? Did you not read the post about 5 lines down where it states "What happens when 3.2 hits?"
Those numbers in his examples do NOT count the nerfs to illumination, or the buffs to MP5. I'm glad your not the one theorycrafting for us.
"Example 3b becomes 0.2275 MP5, or 45.49% as effective as MP5." = BEST CASE SCENARIO!!!!

[ATTHEREADY]

I swear, people who think of crit as just a source for mp5 make me want to jump out of a window. Do not compare the two..if they were meant to be thought of that way, they would call crit "random mana return upon spellcast based upopn %" or RMRUSBUP. Crit offers more benefits than just mp5 (insta-FoL's e.g.) and you should weigh all the factors and not just boil it down to Crit vs MP5. It's just not that simple.

[SchickySC]

Please do jump out of that window then. Unless your new to pally healing, Crit used to be our main source of mana regen. People just haven't gotten the memo that things have changed.

Yes crit has other, VERY LIMITED, uses.

[ATTHEREADY]

Please do jump out of that window then. Unless your new to pally healing, Crit used to be our main source of mana regen. People just haven't gotten the memo that things have changed.

Yes crit has other, VERY LIMITED, uses.

So wait, what I am inferring is that, because mana return on crit got cut in half, it should be disregarded as a stat? I think I need a window..STAT! Forgive me if I don't respect such clouded judgement.

[SchickySC]

Re-read. VERY LIMITED USE. If your stacking crit to overheal more than we already do, or as a regen stat, you're playing wrong. If your wanting crit just to give us an instant Flash of light after a holy shock (that is only really used on high mobility fights and to save a raid member because they can't avoid damage), your playing wrong.

It's regen value was cut in half from what it used to be. It's throughput value remains the same, however small that may be. Its not disregarded as a stat. It is however, the least valuable of our appropriate stats. Int>Haste>Mp5>Sp>Crit. Get used to it. Mp5 provides more regen. Haste and SP both provide more throughput. End of story.

[ATTHEREADY]

It's regen value was cut in half from what it used to be. It's throughput value remains the same, however small that may be. Its not disregarded as a stat. It is however, the least valuable of our appropriate stats. Int>Haste>Mp5>Sp>Crit. Get used to it. Mp5 provides more regen. Haste and SP both provide more throughput. End of story.

This is not a throughput thread, correct? This is Crit vs MP5. To be honest, unless your tanks are a tad undergeared and your dps is lacking, then Divine Plea, a small amount of mp5 (200 or so) along with crit mana return (providing you have a decent amount of crit) really should be all you need for 95% of encounters out there providing you know how/when to cast the correct heal. If you are going oom and worried about mp5 issues, that should be the only time you pick mp5. If you are doing fine progression-wise, than don't change a thing. Please refer to my posts in the "Paladin healing in raids" thread.

[SchickySC]

LOL @ You man. Seriously. This is clearly a crit vs mp5 thread.

As in. Haste + Mp5 vs Haste + Crit. For progression content you will ALWAYS 100% be better off with Haste/Mp5. End of story. Stop posting.

[ATTHEREADY]

I've taken the opportunity to read some of your other posts. I can not find one where you were not arguing with somebody about something, usually in a very juvenile way. LMAO, have you seen Llonie, Paragon's top holy paladin?? 208mp5 in. I'm pretty sure Paragon knows about progression. Now stop posting please. Do research before you embarrass yourself next time.

EDIT: response to tbk2009

[darkwarrior42]

This is not a throughput thread, correct? This is Crit vs MP5. To be honest, unless your tanks are a tad undergeared and your dps is lacking, then Divine Plea, a small amount of mp5 (200 or so) along with crit mana return (providing you have a decent amount of crit) really should be all you need for 95% of encounters out there providing you know how/when to cast the correct heal. If you are going oom and worried about mp5 issues, that should be the only time you pick mp5. If you are doing fine progression-wise, than don't change a thing. Please refer to my posts in the "Paladin healing in raids" thread.

Ok, but the point is:

-crit is not as valuable as mp5 as a regen stat
-crit isn't a good or valuable throughput stat
-crit doesn't give us any extra mana

Since crit's only *practical* value is as regen, all that matters in the end is a comparison of its regen value to mp5. We don't need/want it for throughput, because SP and haste are simply better, and critical HLs are usually overheals anyways. You shouldn't be casting Holy Shock all that often to begin with, so stacking crit to get infusion of light procs is silly. All that leaves is regen, and crit is simply not that good a source of regen.

We do look at the overall picture... it's just that said picture isn't very good.


And speaking of embarassing yourself, ATTHEREADY, you're right about Llonie's mp5... if you disregard the fact that she uses dual Solace, giving her an *effective* mp5 value of 480 mp5. But that doesn't prove your point, so it's not worth mentioning, right?

Edit: giving the proper value of Llonie's mp5

[ATTHEREADY]

I just want to point out the difference between theory and practice. No decently geared holy paladin goes oom. It really doesn't matter which spec you choose. I haven't seen many qq's about paladins ooming, have you? Therefor, I find it a safe assumption to make that, in *practice* mp5 must not be that critical. Now, ask yourself, how many times have you had that lucky crit? "Insert counterposts here"


EDIT: Edited for spelling.

[goetz401]

Ok, but the point is:

-crit is not as valuable as mp5 as a regen stat
-crit isn't a good or valuable throughput stat
-crit doesn't give us any extra mana

Since crit's only *practical* value is as regen, all that matters in the end is a comparison of its regen value to mp5. We don't need/want it for throughput, because SP and haste are simply better, and critical HLs are usually overheals anyways. You shouldn't be casting Holy Shock all that often to begin with, so stacking crit to get infusion of light procs is silly. All that leaves is regen, and crit is simply not that good a source of regen.

We do look at the overall picture... it's just that said picture isn't very good.


And speaking of embarassing yourself, ATTHEREADY, you're right about Llonie's mp5... if you disregard the fact that she uses dual Solace, giving her an *effective* mp5 value of 480 mp5. But that doesn't prove your point, so it's not worth mentioning, right?

Edit: giving the proper value of Llonie's mp5

if AT was too stubborn to understand what was posted above he will probably disregard this aswell.

AT: you say why get new stats when DP and a bit of crit are enough? the answer is optimization. there is a higher potential for throughput and regen from different stats. obviously no one is going to be gemming straight mp5. this is really about haste/mp5 gear (that we started seeing a lot of when ulduar came out) now being better than haste/crit and crit/mp5 gear.

edit- and its also about trinket choices

[ATTHEREADY]

I've never once said to focus on crit over mp5, I just said the stats shouldn't be compared to each-other. I don't understand how this thread has seemed to develop into what it seems to be developing into, all redundancy aside.

[goetz401]

I swear, people who think of crit as just a source for mp5 make me want to jump out of a window. Do not compare the two..if they were meant to be thought of that way, they would call crit "random mana return upon spellcast based upopn %" or RMRUSBUP. Crit offers more benefits than just mp5 (insta-FoL's e.g.) and you should weigh all the factors and not just boil it down to Crit vs MP5. It's just not that simple.

maybe this isn't the best way to join a conversation then if you don't want it to evolve to the state it has.

[ATTHEREADY]

Absolutely correct, I agree. We all have our pet peeves in this game and the constant view by some as crit being judged strictly for its mp5 value is one of mine. My apologies, of course.