10M vs 25M raid difficulty: a look at the statistics

[fex]

I recently posted this on my realm forums as a response to someone who made a comment about how "25-man raiding is the only real form of progression". While I'm not bent out of shape about this issue, his response sort of rubbed me the wrong way, and I decided to do a little bit of research. I figured I'd go ahead and share my findings, and also try to get some feedback on the issue.

My goal here is not to start any sort of flame war or trollfest. There is some very interesting data to interpret here, and I'm looking for people to approach it with a calm, reasonable mentality. It's okay to be biased (I am), as long as you're not being a belligerent ass about it.

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You have been warned: this thread is written by a biased individual.

So I was messing around on World of Logs when I discover something... unexpected. Go take a look for yourself:

http://worldoflogs.com/zones/Blackwing_Descent/

Toggle between "10-man" and "25-man" modes. Do you notice any trends?

How about these two?

http://worldoflogs.com/zones/Bastion_of_Twilight/
http://worldoflogs.com/zones/Throne_of_the_4_Winds/

See it now?

According to the wipe rates represented by these statistics, it appears that wiping is more common in 10-man raids than 25-man raids.

There are a number of ways to interpret this data, and while my immediate bias is to say "10-mans are balanced to be as difficult, or perhaps more difficult, than 25-mans," I'm a reasonable enough person to admit there are other factors at play here.

For instance, since 10-man raids are easier to form, it's possible that there are a number of terrible pick-up groups being represented here, artificially inflating the wipe count while real guilds are actually having an easier time.

It's important to realize, however, that this theory loses value as you get deeper and deeper into each raid. A pick-up group that is wiping on Magmaw and ODS is certainly not going to make it to Nefarion, and yet the success rate for Nefarion25 (2.6%) is more than DOUBLE the success rate for Nefarion10 (1.2%). And go take a look at Cho'gall. Notice anything strange? The success rate for CG25 (17.9%) is 267% higher than the success rate for CG10 (6.7%). And this is all assuming that pug groups are actually running World of Logs. Last time I checked, a lot of guilds aren't even running it.

Another reasonable theory is that some fights are simply tuned to be easier on 25-man than 10-man, but others are easier on 10-man. There is obviously an element of truth to this, and it is very apparent that complex fights with a lot of movement and positioning elements become easier on 10-man.

The statistics do show two fights where 10-mans have a lower wipe rate: the Ascendant Council and Conclave of Winds (and, to give the benefit of doubt, Al'akir is currently tied at 4.4% in both modes). This is nothing unexpected: these are both fights involving a lot of positioning and movement, which is almost unarguably more difficult when more players are added to the mix. But do these two fights really outweigh the 10 others where 10-mans have markedly lower success rates?

A third potential interpretation of the data is that 25-man guilds are simply better than 10-man groups. While I find this notion to be elitist and ridiculous, I begrudgingly admit that there is probably a sliver of truth to it.

This notion is also difficult to quantify, but let's give it a shot. Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that the players in an average 25-man guild are 10% better than the players in an average 10-man guild. Some may argue that this is a low estimation, and others may argue it to be high, but hear me out: we'll tweak the numbers in a second.

If we knock the success rates for all of our 10-man groups up by 10%, the scales tip on Al'akir, pushing the number of fights that are easier on 10-man mode up from 2 to 3.

With a 25% handicap, two more fights are tipped in favor of 10-man groups, leaving us with a 5:7 ratio.

With a 60% handicap, we reach our equilibrium: 6 fights are easier on 10-man, and 6 fights are easier on 25-man.

With a 100% handicap (which, as a reminder, assumes that the average 25-man guild is TWICE as skilled as the average 10-man guild), three fights are still easier on 25-man mode than 10-man mode: Maloriak, Nefarion, and Cho'gall.

It isn't until until we give 10-man raids a 170% handicap that all 12 fights become easier on 10-man than 25-man mode. While I'm inclined to believe that the average 25-man guild might be slighter better than the average 10-man guild, a 170% difference is not what I had in mind.

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Anyway, that's my rant for the day. I'd love to hear how other people interpret this data, and I'm all ears if you can offer a better way of mathing things out to come up with a reasonable conclusion.

The only point I'm trying to get across here is that we should not be throwing around statements like "10-mans are obviously easier than 25-mans" or "25-mans are the only real progression in the game" without considering the facts available to us, first.

[Alfador]

There are a number of ways to interpret this data

Of all the good points made here, this one is the best. As far as I'm concerned it's still way too early to really read into this stuff, and you are very right. Statements declaring one raid type to be universally easier than the other are barely worth even acknowledging.

[Drakhar]

First off, let me say I haven't done any real raiding yet, just BH at this point.

You have interesting points (and I agree with your argument) but if you look at the logs, you ignored the fact that there are a significantly higher number of attempts for the 10 mans. To play devil's advocate: going only on percentages is dangerous and you could say it skews the data somewhat, or it gives more credit to the idea that those guilds going for 25 man progression have higher quality players than you imply. It could even just mean that 10 man groups are more persistent than 25 mans.

[Alfador]

A good point. It would stand to reason that 10s, being easier to organize and faster to get going, are where most "scrub groups" (that is to say groups put together by random people in a hurry who aren't really prepared) will be 10s. There is so much going on between the differences in 10 and 25 to skew the data.

[ChildeRoland]

Eeer, on Halfus the 10 man kill/wipe ratio is lower than on 25 man.

[Deleted]

According to the wipe rates represented by these statistics, it appears that wiping is more common in 10-man raids than 25-man raids.

All the casual/new players, do you think they go for 10 mans or 25 mans? I think the answer is obvious here, 10 man attracts newer and less serious players which is why there are more wipes % wise

[Renf]

Some facts that come to mind while considering the differences:

1. You can res roughly 1/3 of your raid in a 10man with either ankhs/combat res/soulstones. Nowhere near close to that in 25man.
2. A death in a 10man is really punishing, probably a wipe cause. Lesser room for error.
3. The most important factor for me that 10man will always be easier than 25man is that you get the same room to fight in as you would in a 25man and in fights with lots of aoe stuff on the ground, spreading out etc etc, it just isn't the same.

[Maggoo]

One of the main trends in my guild is when we spend the week wiping on a 25 man boss/bosses, we go in on 10 man and clear it out in perhaps 1 or 2 wipes. We've spent 6-8 hours wiping on Al'akir, we got him down in 3 attempts on 10 man. We had spent 9 hours wiping on Ascendant Council and got him down on 10 man after 1 wipe. Of course this would be because we already had experience on it, but then we went and knocked out Cho'gall in 1 wipe. Then again Cho'gall is stupidly easy and the only reason we haven't downed him is bad dps. (got him to 1 million)

This wouldn't mean the data is wrong, and when I think about it, probably supports it.

[Zheryn]

Good post, 10 mans are clearly harder than 25 mans, especially on heroic.

[Zathrendar]

3. The most important factor for me that 10man will always be easier than 25man is that you get the same room to fight in as you would in a 25man and in fights with lots of aoe stuff on the ground, spreading out etc etc, it just isn't the same.

Which he accounted for, did he not?

Truth be told, I dislike 25 man because I like the intimacy of 10 man groups better. Just being another cog in a raid of 25 doesn't jive with me very well and is not how I prefer to play the game. Whether 25 is harder or not, I don't care, but I certainly agree with the OP that there's no a priori consideration as to why this should be so.

[Asrialol]

Could be because scrubanubs goes into 10man, expecting to down it, while the more experienced guilds do 25man.

[TobyKenobi]

I haven't raided in Cata yet, but I've always thought 10m was more difficult than 25m. 25m raids give you more leniency for 1 or 2 people to screw up or be under geared.

Think of it this way:
10m = 2 tanks/2-3 heals. So losing 1 dps is 1/5th or 1/6th of your raid's total dps lost.
25m = 2-3tanks/3-4 heals. So losing 1 dps is only 1/18th to 1/20th of your total dps lost.

[SakkeMann]

Some facts that come to mind while considering the differences:

1. You can res roughly 1/3 of your raid in a 10man with either ankhs/combat res/soulstones. Nowhere near close to that in 25man.

That's wrong, you only get one ress per combat. So 1/10 with CRs.

[gruggi]

Some facts that come to mind while considering the differences:

1. You can res roughly 1/3 of your raid in a 10man with either ankhs/combat res/soulstones. Nowhere near close to that in 25man.
2. A death in a 10man is really punishing, probably a wipe cause. Lesser room for error.
3. The most important factor for me that 10man will always be easier than 25man is that you get the same room to fight in as you would in a 25man and in fights with lots of aoe stuff on the ground, spreading out etc etc, it just isn't the same.

CR and SS dont stack.

---------- Post added 2011-01-13 at 04:14 PM ----------

Good post, 10 mans are clearly harder than 25 mans, especially on heroic.

Yep.. correct.

[Rackfu]

I've personally always felt that council type fights were easier on 10 man (at least for me, I think Omnitron Defense System is easier on 10 man)

Also, fights with mechanics that make people need to remain spread out are obviously harder on 25 man because the space is still the same size but you have 2.5x more people to stay away from.

I think this is one of those topics that will be argued about for the rest of WoW's life.

[Cesc]

One of the main trends in my guild is when we spend the week wiping on a 25 man boss/bosses, we go in on 10 man and clear it out in perhaps 1 or 2 wipes. We've spent 6-8 hours wiping on Al'akir, we got him down in 3 attempts on 10 man. We had spent 9 hours wiping on Ascendant Council and got him down on 10 man after 1 wipe. Of course this would be because we already had experience on it, but then we went and knocked out Cho'gall in 1 wipe. Then again Cho'gall is stupidly easy and the only reason we haven't downed him is bad dps. (got him to 1 million)

This wouldn't mean the data is wrong, and when I think about it, probably supports it.

More than likely your 25 man raiding team has an average lower level of skill than your 10 man group will have.

[Brett Skullcrack]

The statistics between 10 and 25 in WoL are in no way reliable, they're just guesses as to who has done what. Second, Blizzard could make a 5 man that requires more wipes to clear than the current 10 and 25 man content, so what? 25 mans are the raid content of WoW, 10 mans are small group content closer to 5 mans than they are to raiding.

[Galvanon]

One of the main trends in my guild is when we spend the week wiping on a 25 man boss/bosses, we go in on 10 man and clear it out in perhaps 1 or 2 wipes. We've spent 6-8 hours wiping on Al'akir, we got him down in 3 attempts on 10 man. We had spent 9 hours wiping on Ascendant Council and got him down on 10 man after 1 wipe. Of course this would be because we already had experience on it, but then we went and knocked out Cho'gall in 1 wipe. Then again Cho'gall is stupidly easy and the only reason we haven't downed him is bad dps. (got him to 1 million)

This wouldn't mean the data is wrong, and when I think about it, probably supports it.

Entirely possible you might want to look at some of the 15 you leave behind for your 10 mans as well. Maybe you are carrying some dead weight

[-Atlass-]

2. A death in a 10man is really punishing, probably a wipe cause. Lesser room for error.

This. One person dying in a 10 man is 10% of your group gone. One person down in a 25 is only 4% of your group.

[Zathrendar]

The statistics between 10 and 25 in WoL are in no way reliable, they're just guesses as to who has done what. Second, Blizzard could make a 5 man that requires more wipes to clear than the current 10 and 25 man content, so what? 25 mans are the raid content of WoW, 10 mans are small group content closer to 5 mans than they are to raiding.

What -are- you basing this assumption on? Official blues? Because their intended purpose was to homogeneise, as much as possible, the difficulty between 10 and 25 man raids. Obviously this will not hold across the board, particularly where tight positioning comes in, but do you really think 25 man is harder for any other reason? What? The impact of a few players screwing up in 10 man is far harsher than 25, except where positioning matters.