How ZA/ZG "Random" works

[nalberg]

Do you remember the fact that you get LOCKED out of Heroics?
THE FIRST TIME YOU QUE DURING THE DAY... its random and will be random until your are locked out of that Dungeon (lets say ZA).
The Second time you que, it uses Queues your for dungeons your not locked out of... So, your keep getting Queued for ZG over and Over.
Once your locked out of both for the First time, its random again (i think).
After your locked out of dungeons, you must complete that dungeon before getting a new dungeon to que for, as they dont want people Queuing and Dropping... then, Queuing and Dropping... till they get the Dungeon they want. It would allow complete bypass the Heroic Lockout allowing players to essential que for a specific dungeon (granted they just drop if they dont get the one they want) AND other players would get lots of people joining their groups... then immediately dropping cause their trying to get a certain dungeon.

[Culexus]

Do you remember the fact that you get LOCKED out of Heroics?
THE FIRST TIME YOU QUE DURING THE DAY... its random and will be random until your are locked out of that Dungeon (lets say ZA).
The Second time you que, it uses Queues your for dungeons your not locked out of... So, your keep getting Queued for ZG over and Over.
Once your locked out of both for the First time, its random again (i think).
After your locked out of dungeons, you must complete that dungeon before getting a new dungeon to que for, as they dont want people Queuing and Dropping... then, Queuing and Dropping... till they get the Dungeon they want. It would allow complete bypass the Heroic Lockout allowing players to essential que for a specific dungeon (granted they just drop if they dont get the one they want) AND other players would get lots of people joining their groups... then immediately dropping cause their trying to get a certain dungeon.

Wrong. Having an id is totally irelevant in the dungeon finder. Its completely random. No matter when where and why you queue. Had 3 zg runs in a row today and i finished all of them and then i got za. Also had groups break up mid instance and got the other one afterwards.

[Grym]

Doesn't work for me, we queue, get ZG, leave, queue again, might get ZG or ZA, and we do get ZA without even starting on the ZG, so theory doesn't work, or not at a 100% rate.

[nalberg]

The simple fact is... in the past you could only do a heroic ONCE a day. The random tool allows you to bypass this... it IS random, but makes you complete the dungeon it chooses for you... to prevent massive dropping and re-queuing.

You could probably still bypass it, by queing as a group... granted the leader or whomever qued has no lockouts, etc, etc.

---------- Post added 2011-05-08 at 11:34 AM ----------

Are you guys queing as a group? or solo?

[Rickroller]

RNG is RNG????

[Culexus]

it IS random, but makes you complete the dungeon it chooses for you... to prevent massive dropping and re-queuing.

No. It doesnt.

[Deleted]

lol. That's actually all I have to say, but that wont fly with the mods, since it's considered spam, so:
I've had 2 ZA's in a row now, even though I cleared it. Your theory is invalid.

[Gradywhite]

This is probably due to the system they already have in-game, where if you random, you're less likely to get dungeons you're already saved to. In this case, if you've done ZG, you're more likely to get ZA when you queue because you're saved to ZG now.

[Joarrak]

This is probably due to the system they already have in-game, where if you random, you're less likely to get dungeons you're already saved to. In this case, if you've done ZG, you're more likely to get ZA when you queue because you're saved to ZG now.

This is true, I remember seeing this said by a blue sometime. Also, I don't have any evidence but I feel that you are also more likely to get dungeons that you don't have achievements for yet. Back in WOTLK I remember I had one instance left of all the heroic achieves (just for killing the bosses), I queued once and got it. Group fell apart and we didn't finish, and next time I queued I got it again.

Basically, while it does say "random", this just means that youre not selecting the specific one. It does not mean equal chance for each possible dungeon. There are many factors that they include in which you get. I remember when they first introduced random dungeons, they said that it was even possible to get the same heroic twice in a row. Statistically this should happen at least 1 in 100 times you queue twice in a row, but I have never seen it actually happen or heard of it from someone (excluding troll instances, since theres only 2).

And lastly quick statistics lesson. If each were to have a perfect 50% chance each queue with no other factors, getting 8 ZA or 8 ZG is much less likely than 4 ZA and 4 ZG. While any one combination of instances will have the same probability (.5^8), there are many combinations of orders with 4 ZA and 4 ZG. So basically, for 8 ZA you need ZA ZA ZA ZA ZA ZA ZA ZA. For 4 of each, you can get ZA ZA ZA ZA ZG ZG ZG ZG, ZA ZG ZA ZG ZA ZG ZA ZG, etc. I don't remember exactly how to calculate the possible combinations, but the probability of each one is added up to the total probability of 4 of each.

[jackel]

what we've found when farming for bears if you go and all clear ZG and then q for random you get ZA, as long as you only kill the first 4 bosses you should get ZA again and again

[Nah]

My guildies are also convinced there is a much higher chance of getting the same one again if you haven't cleared it. I don't think it's as simple as a flip of the coin. I do think there is enough evidence to believe there is a higher chance to be put in the same instance if you haven't cleared it. For the first 4-5 days of 4.1, we did bear and raptor/panther runs and began to notice that we were consistently getting ZG as long as we didn't clear it, but if we did we had a much higher chance of getting ZA. Same goes for the reverse; we never got ZA twice in a row.

You could probably chalk it up to RNG, sure. A 50% chance doesn't dictate that you'll get one then the other, back and forth. We did, after all, see two panthers in a row, then later a raptor, then another panther the next day. That's pretty awesome luck. But it seems that a lot of people are noticing a pattern, and I think it's worth considering.

[Deleted]

I got ZG 6 times in a row, talk about random eh!

You have a chance of getting ZG or ZA, and you think it's wierd you get 1 out of 2 choices several times in a row?

I think lots of people need to learn some math and about chances.