2011- 2013 MMO Prediction

[Bytes]

Now that is bull. WoW pumps it out every 3-4 months if not faster. It would be faster it they would give up on the stupidity of Titan and put their real devs back on their cash cow that people would be happy to play until they die of old age.

Rift barely gets away with going past 1 month without content updates. Trust me no B2P mmo is going to maintain it. Once NCSoft starts wanting to put that money into Aion or Blade and Soul the funds for Guild Wars 2 are going to dry up and development is going to slow down.

Every 3-4 months? Huh? I'm sorry what I can't hear you over the sound of it taking them six months to "revamp" two previously made dungeons and add a half-assed guild finder tool.

[Tidalfury]

(end of) 2011

- WoW drops to 9 million subscribers.
- Rift stabilizes at less than a million subscribers.
- SWTOR starts with 3 million subscribers, is now down to less than 1.5 million people who still play.
- Tera starts with 1 million subscribers - is now up to 4.5 million.
- GW2 starts with 1 million suubscribers, and maintains them.
- WAR dies.

2012

- WoW goes back up to 10 million subscribers.
- Rift has less than 500k subscribers, switching to F2P.
- SWTOR drops to under 1 million subscribers.
- Tera is up to 5 million subscribers.
- GW2 maintains its 1 million.
- Warhammer 40k MMO starts with under a million subscribers. Considered a flop despite it being a very playable game.
- Most F2P games are now considered "dead".

2013

- WoW drops to 7 million subscribers - new content is largely being ignored.
- Rift is dead.
- SWTOR attempts to "remake" itself. It becomes unplayable. Dies.
- Tera maintains 5 million subscribers.
- GW2 is up to 1.5 million subscribers.
- Titan is launched. 10 million purchases. 2 million people playing it the month after.
- Warhammer 40k MMO maintains its 500k players, refuses to go to F2P and "die like the rest".

2014

- WoW is down to 5 million subscribers. "Old Expansion Servers" are launched. Ignored.
- Tera is up to 6 million subscribers, and is hailed as the WoW killer - however, the company that makes it isn't supporting it anymore because it's no longer popular in Korea.
- GW3 in production. GW2 is down to under 1 million subscribers.
- Titan releases new content, up to 2 million subscribers.
- Warhammer 40k dies (and it makes me sad!).

2015

- WoW is down to 3 million subscribers. Most of these are gold sellers or bots.
- Tera dies despite much raging from the crowd.


(This is a fun game. I wonder if people will look back on this post and say "how did she KNOW?!")

To bad the world is going to end in 2012 or id say this is probably fairly accurate :P

[mordale]

Exactly, console games have only a fraction of gameplay yet they're B2P and sell great, GW2 will have no problems.

agreed, it might not be as heavy on end game content as WoW and other western MMOs.
it'll likely be a game that people buy and play kinda like a single player game with other players popping in from time to time, like demon's souls(can't wait for dark souls).

[Deleted]

If you think GW2 will even make half of what you just said you are an idiot.

SWTOR might make 6M but it won't be fast...do you even have any idea how much 7M is?

[Puremallace]

Every 3-4 months? Huh? I'm sorry what I can't hear you over the sound of it taking them six months to "revamp" two previously made dungeons and add a half-assed guild finder tool.

Like I said Titan has all their A team devs. Right now you got the high school AV squad making content in WoW. Why oh why would they repeat what happened to EQ is just beyond me, but they will learn. They already have a game with 11.6 million why ohhhhh why try and change what is working obviously so well.

None of these games will make past 3 million unless they release in China/Korea.

[Deleted]

Hey guys let's speculate more and bash each other over our ridiculous speculations !

No MMO is going to die in the next few years. None that I can think of at least.

[mordale]

Like I said Titan has all their A team devs. Right now you got the high school AV squad making content in WoW. Why oh why would they repeat what happened to EQ is just beyond me, but they will learn. They already have a game with 11.6 million why ohhhhh why try and change what is working obviously so well.

None of these games will make past 3 million unless they release in China/Korea.

titan's team has mostly new people, or did you miss blizzards spree of hireings last year?
futuristic/sci fi art designers and a few people with programming degrees, what do you think they're for?

[Nyne]

2012
rift die
stor die
gw2 3m sub
wow drop to 9m sub
2013
gw2 drop to 1m sub
wow stay at 9m
titan start with 5m sub
2014
titan die
gw2 die
every1 back to wow 20m sub
2015
wow2 release 15m sub
wow drop to 19m sub
2016
wow 1 die
wow 2 50m sub
2017
diablo 3 40m sub
wow 2 60m sub
2018
every1 die

[moaradin]

What did I just read?

[Puremallace]

titan's team has mostly new people, or did you miss blizzards spree of hireings last year?
futuristic/sci fi art designers and a few people with programming degrees, what do you think they're for?

yeah and they put those college interns working on WoW. The people that really matter are on Titan I bet. There is no way in anyone's right mind that recycling ZG/ZA sounded like a good idea. I mean of course the lore guys want it because that is what they always wants, but they rarely ever get it.

If they had the full team 4.2 would have been out 2 months ago easily.

[Deleted]

- Tera is up to 6 million subscribers, and is hailed as the WoW killer - however, the company that makes it isn't supporting it anymore because it's no longer popular in Korea.

Haha made me laugh so hard!

[HoX]

2012
rift die
stor die
gw2 3m sub
wow drop to 9m sub
2013
gw2 drop to 1m sub
wow stay at 9m
titan start with 5m sub
2014
titan die
gw2 die
every1 back to wow 20m sub
2015
wow2 release 15m sub
wow drop to 19m sub
2016
wow 1 die
wow 2 50m sub
2017
diablo 3 40m sub
wow 2 60m sub
2018
every1 die

I wonder if I look this later and think "How did she know?"

[moaradin]

SWOTR will get 2 million subs max.

Inform me, oh great one.

[Deleted]

But, gais, end of wurld in 2012!!!1 omg!

[HoX]

yeah and they put those college interns working on WoW. The people that really matter are on Titan I bet. There is no way in anyone's right mind that recycling ZG/ZA sounded like a good idea. I mean of course the lore guys want it because that is what they always wants, but they rarely ever get it.

If they had the full team 4.2 would have been out 2 months ago easily.

I wonder how easily everyone knows Blizzard's inside stuff and almost every other nicename here have loads of better ideas than Blizzard do.

[Dembai]

I wonder if I look this later and think "How did she know?"

You wont - we'll all be dead. XD

[ro9ue]

I think GW2, Tera, Rift and SWTOR will all pull some decent numbers and lower WoWs player base. But then in 3 years Titan comes out and Blizzard regains its throne.

[Angarin]

Now that is bull. WoW pumps it out every 3-4 months if not faster. It would be faster it they would give up on the stupidity of Titan and put their real devs back on their cash cow that people would be happy to play until they die of old age.

Rift barely gets away with going past 1 month without content updates. Trust me no B2P mmo is going to maintain it. Once NCSoft starts wanting to put that money into Aion or Blade and Soul the funds for Guild Wars 2 are going to dry up and development is going to slow down.

Stop calling SWToR a MMORPG. It simply does not meet the requirements. It is a single player RPG

"now that is bull" I just stole your pun. Honestly 2 dungeons...and a few "extra" features took them...4 months to release. Its gonna take them til probably at least june or maybe july for firelands. tier 10 to tier 11 took almost a full year. TOC to ICC took almost 6 months. Uld-toc was the only exception and they admit it was a mistake. Naxx - uld took 5-6 months. tier 6 to swp took basically a full year but real progression didnt really start til august or september. Tier 4-6 was all reall combined because it was all released and that took about 6 months or so. Tier 3 to bc...well that wasnt even ever finished for real. I cant really even compare vanilla because it was so messed up

In short

Your argument...is invalid

[Dion04]

I think SW:TOR will open with over 5 million in the first month. I believe it will maintain those numbers for 3 months, then dip massively due to lack of endgame.

[Puremallace]

"now that is bull" I just stole your pun. Honestly 2 dungeons...and a few "extra" features took them...4 months to release. Its gonna take them til probably at least june or maybe july for firelands. tier 10 to tier 11 took almost a full year. TOC to ICC took almost 6 months. Uld-toc was the only exception and they admit it was a mistake. Naxx - uld took 5-6 months. tier 6 to swp took basically a full year but real progression didnt really start til august or september. Tier 4-6 was all reall combined because it was all released and that took about 6 months or so. Tier 3 to bc...well that wasnt even ever finished for real. I cant really even compare vanilla because it was so messed up

In short

Your argument...is invalid

So in my vain attempt to prove you wrong using wikipedia I learned the following:

"""The Corrupted Blood plague incident was one of the first events to affect entire servers. Patch 1.7 saw the opening of Zul'Gurub, the game's first 20-player raid dungeon where players faced off against a tribe of trolls under the sway of the god Hakkar the Soulflayer. Upon engaging Hakkar, players were stricken by a debuff called "Corrupted Blood" which would periodically sap their life. The disease was also passed on to other players simply by being near infected players. Originally this malady was confined within the Zul'Gurub instance, but it made its way into the outside world by way of hunter pets or warlock minions that contracted the disease.

Within hours, Corrupted Blood had completely infected major cities because of their high player concentrations. Low-level players were killed in seconds by the high-damage disease. Eventually Blizzard fixed the issue so that the plague could not exist outside of Zul'Gurub.

The Corrupted Blood plague so closely resembled the outbreak of real-world epidemics that scientists are currently looking at ways MMORPGs or other massively distributed systems can model human behavior during outbreaks. The reaction of players to the plague closely resembled previously hard-to-model aspects of human behavior that may allow researchers to more accurately predict how diseases and outbreaks spread amongst a population.[81]""

I get this Seven Momkeys symbol in my head!