I was wondering when the usual pile on would begin and here you are!
WTO standards do not place tariffs on goods, the tariff schedule is down to each national to decide you can view the UK's temporary no-deal tariffs here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/check-te...-after-eu-exit
In your example you seem to believe that the UK companies are going to fall foul of EU tariffs but for some - unspecified - reason the UK will have to reduce or remove its tariffs in order for EU businesses to continue trading with the UK and in the process destroy its internal markets. Utter nonsense.
Just to add it's a little weird that you've not turned your expertise in international trade towards the comment that under no-deal UK/EU will cease and that it will be devastating to the UK but instead focus on my post.
Last edited by Pann; 2020-03-28 at 04:15 PM.
It depends what one’s definition of “devastating” is. In the same way as it depends what one’s description of “additional friction” is. They’re just emotive weasel words lacking in substance.
As Tempname said: trade will be immensely harder and more expensive, certainly with respect to UK exports. If the government slashes tariffs on imports that will create its own set of problems with respect to the UK’s ability to compete.
Have you visited a supermarket recently? We’ve barely seen disruption to the supply chains so far and it’s complete chaos. Give it three months, then we’ll see the real impact shutting countries and economies down will have on our ability to consume.
Covid19 will last 12-18 months. Only the most ardent Brexiteers, blinded by their hatred of the EU, would seek to compound the severity of the situation by refusing to seek an extension to the transition period.
You don't think the UK is more dependant on EU goods then the EU is dependent on UK goods?
The EU is much more likely to catch any deficiencies via internal companies jumping in a gap in the market or an existing foreign trade partner. So it doesn't have to change its WTO tariffs to keep internal markets that now have a import/export issue afloat.
The UK is a lot more likely to run afoul of this as its internal market is smaller and less diverse (26 countries compared to 1 after all) and doesn't have the existing network of trade treaties.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
It won't be devastating - there are economic models that show that no-deal will result in lower GDP growth but the economy will still grow. I appreciate that this does not fit with yours or the echo chamber's belief but a growing economy can in no way be described as devastating.
Why will trade be immensely harder? We trade with many nations without a FTA or bilateral agreements - have you ever ordered something from America or China? Why do you think the government would slash tariffs?
This is a global crisis that has seen many nations closing their borders I am not sure why you think this would not disrupt supply lines as it appears to placing a strain on EU supply lines: https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-he...-idUKKBN2161OQ I can see no reason why our supply lines would be unaffected.
Also the current crisis caught nations unawares and as result there was no time to prepare whereas Brexit is known and can be prepared for.
Yeah, yeah. That has absolutely nothing to do with anything I have written so kindly take it elsewhere.
- - - Updated - - -
The UK and EU buy and sell a lot of things to each other no matter what happens this trade will not stop.
Ah, so now EU companies will not be affected because they can sell to the internal EU market whereas UK will just - presumably - go out of business? You do know that people who do this kind of thing for a living - and are not pro-Brexit - have modelled the potential outcomes and they do not tally with what you write? I guess it's not just the Brexiteers that don't need experts, huh?
Yes, that’s why I was careful to state that “devastating” was a weasel word. I appreciate it was convenient to overlook that. You do, however, overlook the fact that there will be a global recession in the wake of Covid19.
E.g., an average 35% increase on the price of dairy products exported to the EU won’t make life “immensely” harder? Do you want to tell that to the dairy industry, already in decline because of higher costs and bad weather? And, of course, don’t forget the additional non tariff barriers: form-filling, regulations & quotas. Costly and slow. That is what trade with the EU will be under WTO terms.
So as to minimise inevitable price increases at home, in doing so adversely affecting the ability of UK industry to compete. Do I need to start linking articles for you?
Yes, of course. What I was said was we, in the UK, have barely yet seen the impact yet. The chaos has been created by people panic buying. A 1000% increase in demand. It’s when supplies aren’t actually being produced or delivered, that is when we’ll see the real crisis. Yes, failing to extend the transition period will exacerbate this crisis.
Nah, I won’t do that.
I need to disengage now - there is simply too much shit going on to start getting angry with peeps on forums.
You seek to confuse and obfuscate at every opportunity, Pann. It’s blindingly obvious and extraordinarily boring, now.
I suggest it should be you who takes the hint and takes it elsewhere. I’ll return to my echo chamber and you to yours, wherever that actually is.
Yeah. Of course.
Individual sectors will be affected more than others and you know full well that I was talking about trade in general but that is an interesting choice to focus on. However I would point out that the US has raised tariffs on EU dairy imports - which will not affect our dairy producers - in retaliation for the Airbus/Boeing dispute providing a potential opportunity for UK producers.
In terms of additional non-tariff barriers we already operate a farm to fork system throughout the EU - which we are unlikely to deviate from - and all livestock and their products are meticulously recorded.
Some prices will increase others will not - why do you think that this will necessitate a slashing of tariffs.
Yes, please. It's always good to learn more.
The situation with CV19 is completely different to the potential disruption from Brexit.
I've not mentioned the transition period - why bring it up again?
I am sorry if what I write confuses you - if you need further explanation I will be happy to help.
Yeah, we can't possibly have anyone say anything that disagrees with your beliefs... can we now???
If you feel this way I suggest that you put me on ignore and only read from posts of people who you agree with.
This is a very odd response considering you decided to respond to my post that stated the claim that UK/EU trade would cease in the result of no-deal.
But it that a "no" to providing those articles?
On a serious note - you seem to be taking anything I write personally which is not my intention so I think I will leave (no pun intended) it here and I wish you well in the future.
Last edited by Pann; 2020-03-28 at 09:11 PM.
Let's be fair, the government had a plan, a radical plan infact! Let everyone get infected. I guess it took a while for the numbers guys to point out that this would lead directly to, at best, 10s of thousands of deaths and maybe even the Murdoch Media would have a hard time letting that slide.
Edit: Quick mathed the numbers, based on the initial desired 70% infection rate and a 3.4% death rate (estimated by WHO) then that's 1.5 million dead.
Last edited by Kronik85; 2020-03-28 at 09:38 PM.
We haven't had one of these for a while, those of a sensitive remain disposition should probably close their eyes or look away, I wonder what the country thinks of the pro no EU transition extension, lets get everyone infected party currently governing...
Opinium poll (2,006 UK adults 26-27 Mar) voting intention:
Con 54%
Lab 28%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 3%
(Almost same as
@NCPoliticsUK
earlier today)
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/stat...98405527044097
The party of the sensible people has a clear majority and support for what they are doing, both in how they are handling the virus and their stance on brexit, well done Boris I suggest a new Tory slogan, Got Brexit done, get Covid done anyone come up with anything better?... Tick Tock!
13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"
What dairy products are exported from the UK to the US? You sure have comparable numbers to the EU countries and how that could become an opportunity?
As far as I can tell, the UK exports little to nothing in dairy products to the US when compared to other EU countries with the only exception being cheddar because no other European country exports that stuff apart from Ireland.
WHO has not estimated the actual fatality rate to 3.4%, since they know the numbers behind that statistics are faulty - e.g., that many cases are not confirmed and thus not included in the statistics.
More realistic estimates of case fatality rate is about 1% - but that's still about half a million dead. Trying to guard the elderly might reduce it further - but we are still talking about hundreds of thousands dead in the UK.
Brexit Boris currently has an approval rating of 72%, that is the true legacy of Corbyn.
And I can assure you the demographic of Brexit Boris supporters don't live in the urban ghettos currently the target of Coronavirus. In the rural lands of Rees-Mogg there are 30 odd confirmed cases whereas in Corbyns backyard cases number in the thousands.
Remainers dreams of the old dying after the brexit referendum are coming back to haunt them as this new virus clearly has city dwellers in its sights...
13/11/2022 Sir Keir Starmer. "Brexit is safe in my hands, Let me be really clear about Brexit. There is no case for going back into the EU and no case for going into the single market or customs union. Freedom of movement is over"
Source was this.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#who-03-03-20
But it's old numbers and BBC saying 1% today. Always fun to see 500k deaths defended by the Telegraph though as a "sensible plan" (just Google for that headline, paywall so can't link article).
Which is a very misleading statement by WHO:
The first statement talks about "reported cases" the second statement "infected", and it wasn't made by a slip of the tongue.Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.
By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected
We don't know how many that are actually infected at the moment, but a reasonable estimate is that there are a lot more - and thus 1% as fatality rate is likely.
The 1% number was estimated even earlier. I agree that half a million dead are a lot - but it's not clear that any country will actually avoid such numbers (except possibly China and S. Korea).
And at least they didn't call it "A modest proposal".
Yeah if you look at the over-65's the Tories would have won all but 4 seats in the country. Urban or rural doesn't really matter.
Additionally while diseases spread in urban centres first (for obvious reasons), that doesn't mean they won't spread to rural areas in due course.
Either way I suspect dribbles doesn't even believe what he is saying, definitely sounds more nervous than usual, with good reason.
There would be a serious danger that people would think it was satire if they did rather than the opinion of peak human garbage.
@Slant it's being reported that the German Finance minister just commited suicide. You got some context for us or was helping people really that painful for him?