I'm asking for you to do it now. Can't really make your bet after the winner is chosen.
Oblivion -- Nate Silver has provided his results, along with the methodology he used to get there.
You don't like his results. That's clear. But in order to make an actual argument, you have to find a flaw in his methods.
Is Obama toast? by Nate Silver.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...pagewanted=all
Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17%
The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.
From the last paragraph:
Notice how he didn't make a definitive prediction? Might not still falls in the realm of could.It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.
Not to mention that the prediction changes every time you get new data in. Part of why it was so high for Romney could be that people weren't aware of what the GOP was proposing. As the election cycle progressed, more of they GOP's goals became apparent, possibly driving people away.
Last edited by Grizzly Willy; 2012-09-11 at 05:56 PM.
From your source:
THE BOTTOM LINE
Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.
With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.
---------- Post added 2012-09-11 at 05:56 PM ----------
Don't panic and freak out if they don't work.
He's either the all knowing guru or he isn't.
I think the debates and late advertising have a lot of play on this election. You know... things that haven't occurred yet.
I think it's Romney's election to win. Especially if he debates well.
The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.
Which is why we can say that right now it is likely for Obama to win, given the way things are going. If things change, as they often do, then the prediction changes to take into account the new data.
I like how you posted the link to the article while taking a single line from it extremely out of context. The probability you quoted is under Silver's assumption of a flat 0% GDP growth. He also lists several other possible scenarios, a few of which are out of date since Perry is a non-factor now. At the end of the article, he even says that if you average out the different scenarios, it's pretty close to 50-50.
What a pathetic, trolly, ignorant, and childish response. Someone raises a point and your first instinct is to tell them not to panic and freak out if their prediction is wrong? Well, that's a response that I could have used at anytime to anyone of the Nate Silver followers. But I hardly see how that elevates the nature of our discourse.
So 1 minute of searching google and being admonished to "prove him wrong" got me to 50-50.
Imagine if I actually spent some time on it.
The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.
Linking something from November of 2011 which was hardly definite as proof that updated predictions are invalid isn't quite solid.
However, you do have a point that there is still plenty of time between now and November to have things change.
Laying your bets on Romney trouncing Obama in debates is not exactly your best bet though.
Things that I think could swing the election (either way)
1) major shifts in the economy.
2) us getting involved in any sort of new military action (Iran or other)
3) Romney coming out with definitive policy stances with enough detail to undermine Obama
4) Romney coming out with definitive policy stances that are nonsense
5) Major gaffes by either party. And we're talking major here, as in alienating a whole voting bloc.