What's HAppening in Canada? Trudeau Called for Snap Elections

[Milchshake]

Can't believe this one flew under the radar for so long. This is for the posters who; want to talk about non-American politics!, I'm Canadian actually!, I'm moving to Canada!

Trudeau called for snap elections on August 15th. 2 years ahead of schedule. For people that dont live in parliamentary systems, is this a bug or a feature?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s goal in calling an early election in Canada was to pull off the same feat British Prime Minister Boris Johnson did in 2019 -- turn a parliamentary minority into a decisive majority for his Liberal Party. Instead, he risks looking more like Theresa May, whose decision to call a snap vote in 2017 backfired.

Canada’s Conservative Party, led by Erin O’Toole, has nosed ahead in polls and now has a 54% chance of winning the most seats, according to projections by polling aggregator 338Canada.com. The Tories have pulled even with the Liberals in vote-rich Ontario and have a strong lead in the western provinces.

The polls suggest neither of the main parties has much chance of winning an outright majority in the 338-seat House of Commons. The numbers could shift again in the three weeks that remain before the Sept. 20 vote -- especially with televised debates still to come.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...racker/canada/

Conservative 33.8%
Liberal 31.2%
New Democrat 20.6%
Bloc Québécois 6.3%
Green 3.4%


For people who do not understand probabilities, stop reading HERE.

What are the chances of each party winning:
10% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
44% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
41% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
4% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

[Rennadrel]

It doesn't matter who wins, they are all equally shit. No one is truly interested in fixing this rampant housing crisis, it's all talk and zero action. No one will actually fix the opioid crisis, or the constant ballooning of the cost of living while wages are in the pits despite so many big businesses just hauling in cash.

[Endus]

Can't believe this one flew under the radar for so long. This is for the posters who; want to talk about non-American politics!, I'm Canadian actually!, I'm moving to Canada!

Trudeau called for snap elections on August 15th. 2 years ahead of schedule. For people that dont live in parliamentary systems, is this a bug or a feature?

It's a feature. There really isn't a "schedule" for elections. While there's a set term that can expire, after which an election is automatically called, any non-confidence vote in Parliament forces a new election, and as we see here, the sitting government can announce an election as well.

Non-confidence votes are easy; if 50% of Parliament votes to support it, bam, election. And any budget bill failing to pass is an automatic non-confidence vote that calls an election.

The maximum term is 4 years (used to be 5 until 2007) before an election automatically occurs. Since 2007, only one Parliament has gone its full term. It's actually much less likely that a Parliament will sit its full term than that a new election will get called.

For people who do not understand probabilities, stop reading HERE.

What are the chances of each party winning:
10% Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
44% Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
41% Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
4% Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

This gets really complicated, too. The Conservatives are actually in the middle of a bit of a leadership debacle, which is arguably why Trudeau is picking his moment. There are two sub-factions in the Conservative Party, the old Progressive Conservatives and the old Reform, who can basically be seen as "fiscal conservatives" and "racist bigoted xenophobes". They combined for political power, but there's a lot of bad blood in there right now, and the Conservative Party may be about to tear itself apart. Parties in Canada are a lot more flexible than the USA; the Conservative Party only dates back to 2003 (where the PCs and Reform combined). While they held things together through the Harper Administration, they've kind of fallen apart since, leading to where we are now.

Also, those pesky non-confidence votes and the fact that the NDP exist are a problem for them. The Conservatives won't get more than maybe 35% of the seats. The only way they win is with the Liberals and NDP splitting the rest of the country, with the Bloc Quebecois being a potential additional factor on that side (sometimes they're relevant, sometimes not, it's REALLY chaotic). Like, look at the 43rd Parliament, just having ended; there were some 211 seats between the Liberal, NDP, and Bloc, as compared to 119 for the Conservatives. Plus a handful of others. The Conservatives only held 1/3 of the seats. Harper's government never held more than 166 seats, and without any backing from other parties. While it hasn't been done recently, coalition governments are a thing; if the Liberal Party and NDP decide to form a coalition, their combined numbers would be compared to the Conservatives to see whether the coalition of Conservatives "win" the election and form the government.

Canadian politics have a lot more moving parts than the USA.

[Rustedsaint]

I feel like voting for the rhino party at the moment due to the contempt I feel for both the liberals/Tories.

[GreyStriker]

The maximum term is 4 years (used to be 5 until 2007) before an election automatically occurs. Since 2007, only one Parliament has gone its full term. It's actually much less likely that a Parliament will sit its full term than that a new election will get called.

The maximum term is still 5 years as per the constitution, which is nigh impossible to change. The 2007 law says that elections should be held every 4 years, and the 2015 and 2019 were indeed 4 years after the previous election. However, the law is effectively unenforceable as the constitution supercedes it. The Prime Minister or a successful non-confidence vote can force an election at any time.

[Egomaniac]

Like Endus said above...it's a feature. Elections can happen at any time.

But, typically the controlling party will only call an election early if they believe they can win as many or more seats as they currently have. Conversely, the opposition will only call for a vote of non-confidence...which can trigger an election... if they believe they will get more votes. It's more complicated for the opposition because typically it requires the incumbent part only holds a minority government and they will need to form a coalition of sorts between the non-ruling parties. If the Prime Minister's party has a majority, votes of non-confidence are pretty much impossible to pass... unless there is some serious discord within that party.

The fact that Trudeau called the election this early indicates that he thinks that his party has a good chance of retaining control of the government and possibly converting his minority government into a majority government. It's always a bit risky though. Any major missteps between now and September 20 will be very hard to recover from.

It's also something of a referendum on how his government has handled the Pandemic so far and how to proceed in the future. If the Liberals get more seats than they did in the last election... Trudeau will continue handling the Covid response in the same way. If they get less seats...he'll probably adjust his response accordingly. If the Liberals lose control of the government...well then it becomes someone else's mess to handle.

[Jotaux]

Where is the independent option in the poll?

[Endus]

Where is the independent option in the poll?

Independents have literally no chance of forming the government, by definition, so there's no reason to include them in this kind of poll in the first place.

Like, if every single one of the 330ish seats went to an Independent member of Parliament, except for two that went to Liberal members, the Liberals would form a minority government in that circumstance.

"Independent" means you stand for yourself, not a party, and the government is formed by the party that holds the largest plurality of seats.

[Jaransan]

It's a feature. There really isn't a "schedule" for elections. While there's a set term that can expire, after which an election is automatically called, any non-confidence vote in Parliament forces a new election, and as we see here, the sitting government can announce an election as well.

Non-confidence votes are easy; if 50% of Parliament votes to support it, bam, election. And any budget bill failing to pass is an automatic non-confidence vote that calls an election.

The maximum term is 4 years (used to be 5 until 2007) before an election automatically occurs. Since 2007, only one Parliament has gone its full term. It's actually much less likely that a Parliament will sit its full term than that a new election will get called.



This gets really complicated, too. The Conservatives are actually in the middle of a bit of a leadership debacle, which is arguably why Trudeau is picking his moment. There are two sub-factions in the Conservative Party, the old Progressive Conservatives and the old Reform, who can basically be seen as "fiscal conservatives" and "racist bigoted xenophobes". They combined for political power, but there's a lot of bad blood in there right now, and the Conservative Party may be about to tear itself apart. Parties in Canada are a lot more flexible than the USA; the Conservative Party only dates back to 2003 (where the PCs and Reform combined). While they held things together through the Harper Administration, they've kind of fallen apart since, leading to where we are now.

Also, those pesky non-confidence votes and the fact that the NDP exist are a problem for them. The Conservatives won't get more than maybe 35% of the seats. The only way they win is with the Liberals and NDP splitting the rest of the country, with the Bloc Quebecois being a potential additional factor on that side (sometimes they're relevant, sometimes not, it's REALLY chaotic). Like, look at the 43rd Parliament, just having ended; there were some 211 seats between the Liberal, NDP, and Bloc, as compared to 119 for the Conservatives. Plus a handful of others. The Conservatives only held 1/3 of the seats. Harper's government never held more than 166 seats, and without any backing from other parties. While it hasn't been done recently, coalition governments are a thing; if the Liberal Party and NDP decide to form a coalition, their combined numbers would be compared to the Conservatives to see whether the coalition of Conservatives "win" the election and form the government.

Canadian politics have a lot more moving parts than the USA.

I came here to say basically this. I drastically prefer this mode of government to what America has - it keeps parties on their toes and forces them to change and adapt, and the presence of 3+ parties in the legislature means we rarely have multiple year stalemates where nothing gets done because the current ruling party is outnumbered. Groups work together or disagree fluidly and frequently. It’s not perfect but it just takes one look over the border to see worse.

[Ivanstone]

I haven’t decided if I’ll vote for Brownface again. He’s been ok but there’s always irritations and I’m thinking I wouldn’t mind giving Jagmeet Singh a chance.

On the other hand, I live in a Liberal district and have nothing against my MP. My vote may not matter.

I do like the list of campaign promises that O’Toole has. So much spending! It’s almost like the NDP managed to plant one of their own into the Tories.

[Corvus]

What sort of election system do you have that allows a party with less than one third of the vote to end up with a majority of seats? That does not sound very representative.

[Rennadrel]

I live in currently a swing riding in Ontario. The Liberal candidate won by a few hundred votes in a riding that covers a significant amount of land and was Conservative since 2009, so it's pretty rural with a few larger towns here and there. I won't be surprised if the Conservatives win, but at the same time my area finally got fibre optic internet thanks to the Liberals initiatives in incentivizing small town development so I do have something to be thankful for there.

Despite what many here might think, I usually vote on the left, but I fell out of love with Trudeau's policies within the first couple years after his first election and frankly the current crop of NDP doesn't represent my interests that well either as they seem more intent on prioritizing their progressive agenda more than what they plan to do for working class Canadians. I voted Green last time, but the party is in shambles right now and I don't see them making any ground until they figure out what is going on. Not that I don't think Annime Paul is incapable, just the party is such a mess at the federal level.

I dunno, I don't particularly like the Conservatives, more so since I can't trust them to govern in any sensible way while we are still dealing with the pandemic. I want to vote for the candidate for my area more so than the party leader, but they never come around when I am home, they like to canvas during the day despite that's when most people where I live aren't at home.

[Orange Joe]

What sort of election system do you have that allows a party with less than one third of the vote to end up with a majority of seats? That does not sound very representative.

A system with more than 2 parties?

[Jaransan]

What sort of election system do you have that allows a party with less than one third of the vote to end up with a majority of seats? That does not sound very representative.

Imagine if you will, a world where more than two parties exist, and the constantly shifting issues of the day require they all either work together or against one another in a complicated web of agreements and alliances.

You know, debate, cooperation, all that.

I suppose you could consider ‘they have four more guys than us on the senate so we literally cant do anything’ representation - but I’m fairly certain most people don’t. We get a lot less gridlock here in Canada.

[Corvus]

I'm not from the US if that is what you are implying. Many countries have multiple parties where the amount of votes you get is roughly equal to the amount of seats you get.

This seems to be a system where almost 70% if the voters don't want Trudeau but he could still end up with a majority.

[Egomaniac]

What sort of election system do you have that allows a party with less than one third of the vote to end up with a majority of seats? That does not sound very representative.

The Liberals do not have a majority. They have a minority government. They have more seats than any other party but they do not have the majority of seats.

We don't vote directly for the Prime Minister in Canada. We vote for our local MP's. The party that has the most MP's elected typically forms the government. I say typically because it is possible for 2 or more parties to combine their seat count and form a coalition government...but it's rarely been attempted.

[JohnBrown1917]

A system with more than 2 parties?

Unless it uses a district system like the UK or Canada that will rarely happen.

[Endus]

I'm not from the US if that is what you are implying. Many countries have multiple parties where the amount of votes you get is roughly equal to the amount of seats you get.

This seems to be a system where almost 70% if the voters don't want Trudeau but he could still end up with a majority.

It's a parliamentary system. The only way it works out that a party might have a lot more popular support than seats is if they are consistently the #2 party in a lot of ridings, and much less often the #1. All MPs are elected in their local ridings; that's the only (federal) vote that happens. The only people who get to vote for Trudeau are those who actually live in Trudeau's own riding (Papineau, in Montreal).

Whether it's a majority or minority government is determined entirely by the number of MPs elected by each party.

Once you add more than two parties to the mix, it's pretty easy for a riding to split, say, 40%/30%/25%/5%, leaving whoever got 40% of the vote with the seat. It doesn't matter that 60% voted another way, what matters is they got a higher percentage of the vote than anyone else.

[Forogil]

Can't believe this one flew under the radar for so long. This is for the posters who; want to talk about non-American politics!, I'm Canadian actually!, I'm moving to Canada!

Trudeau called for snap elections on August 15th. 2 years ahead of schedule. For people that dont live in parliamentary systems, is this a bug or a feature?

It's a bug of many parliamentary systems when combined with FPTP; as it can give the sitting government an unfair strong advantage based on correct timing.

Of course, the government may also miscalculate as may be the case this time.

[Frontenac]

I haven’t decided if I’ll vote for Brownface again. He’s been ok but there’s always irritations and I’m thinking I wouldn’t mind giving Jagmeet Singh a chance.

On the other hand, I live in a Liberal district and have nothing against my MP. My vote may not matter.

I do like the list of campaign promises that O’Toole has. So much spending! It’s almost like the NDP managed to plant one of their own into the Tories.

If the Tories want to form the next government, they have, at least during the elections, to recenter their agenda towards the left. A GOP-like party would win by a landslide in the Prairies, but bomb hard in Ontario (where there's most seats to win, 121), Québec (78 seats) and the Atlantic provinces. Andrew Scheer paid dearly his lukewarm position on abortion in 2019. The Tories won the popular vote, but it was all concentrated in the Prairies (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) and they could not gain enough seats in Ontario and Québec to win the election.

O'Toole has learned the lesson well. He shows a sunny side. He talks about the environment and accepts the reality of global warming. Granted, his environmental politics are not impressive, but it is a contrast with some of his base. He offered a "contract" to the Québecois to respect their national identity and provincial jurisdiction. It means nothing of course. He talks about healthcare and animal rights. Some might be reassured by that and vote for him. If he ever forms a majority, he could forget his promises quickly enough. Most majority governments do. I mean, according to Trudeau, 2015's elections were supposed to be the last with the present voting system... But, as he said, the system worked: the Canadians got rid of the Tories... No need to change it.