Bonus rolls are removed in Shadowlands

[Nergles]

Let's be real most people just forgot their rolls anyway.

[Great Destiny Man]

Let's be real most people just forgot their rolls anyway.

I am at least looking forward to no more boss pull aborts because Jimmy forgot to pick up his fucking coins again.

[Capultro]

They are stupid, they do nothing but screw up more and more ... and what about getting rings, beads, relics and other shit, everything, except transmogs that you need in the loot?, and that of getting yourself piece several times WHICH DOES NOT IMPROVE YOU?
And yet never get in all the expansions 1 single trinket you are looking for? Blizzard thinks we are stupid, but we realize this kind of thing, made to lengthen the subscription time.

[Powerogue]

I'm fine with this. People wanted less RNG, now there's less RNG. Will this impact past expansions that I mog farm is all I care about.

[Aresk]

This is how you can fool people. You actually believe you have a chance to get trinket you need with 9 chances? No. It will be max 3 chances, out of pool of every item in raids.

That's assuming that both trinkets come from the same source. If your BiS trinkets are both raid exclusive, then yes, there are three chances. If one trinket comes from raid and one from Mythic+, then it's six chances to get the first trinket you need and three chances after to get the second (since it theoretically doesn't matter which you get first). If you have upgrades in all three areas, you have nine chances at an upgrade, regardless of it being BiS.

With respect to the pool chosen from for the vault, I haven't looked in depth into the vault to know whether it respects your current loot spec, though I presume it would since the predecessors did. Thus, even at only three chances, that's three chances of that specific loot pool, not every item in the raid.

Looking at Eternal Palace as an example, suppose I'm feral farming for Ashvane's Razor Coral. I have 29 possible items from that raid. I have a 1/29 shot for the item in the first slot, 28/29*1/28 to get that item in the second slot but not the first, and 28/29*27/28*1/27 to get that item in the third slot but not the other two (total of 10.34%). The coins do not have a flat percentage, obviously, but in order to get that item from Ashvane, I'd have X chance to get loot for using the coin and 1/4 for loot from Ashvane to be the trinket. The break even point would be X/4=.1034 or 41.36%. If coins have a lower probability than that, the vault is better. If coins have a higher probability, the coin is better. I do not think the initial coin value is that high based on my personal experiences; however, because of the bad luck protection, eventually the coin will be worth more than 41.36%, assuming you're only using coins to fish for that one trinket. Until you get an item, however, coins are yielding you no gear rewards, while the vault yields one item per week. Thus, in general, I think the vault is better.

This will obviously vary wildly based on how much loot there is for your spec in the raid and how much loot drops for your spec from the boss with the desired item. I picked the above because it was the last time I specifically farmed for a specific trinket. If instead I wanted to try to farm the Vita-Charged Titanshard from Ra-den, I'm looking at 1/3 chance that an item from Ra-den is the targeted item, and I'm looking at a total item pool of 27 items. Repeating the math, the break even point is 33.33%, which is looking better for the coin than the 41.36%, though I still personally feel that for my style (one clear a week, meaning only one coin roll per week on that boss's table), the vault is still better since I'm guaranteed something, even if it's not the piece I want.

[kaminaris]

That's assuming that both trinkets come from the same source.

There is no point in discussing this further as only raid route is actually the best one. Having 1 trinket from dungeon will fucking suck as you will be given 1-3 possibilities from 100 items.

This is what actually less loot means: there is a real chance you won't drop a specific item for entire tier.

Instead of having smooth progression curve that forging had it will be steep stairs that may have a missing step.

Vault is good only for raiders and only at the beginning. As time goes on it will become less and less useful compared to bonus rolls.

[Xires]

well. Shadowlands starting to look like straight dumpster fire now. https://www.wowhead.com/news=318109/...wlands-content

guess it depends on who you are. I don't see this as a bad thing. But they really should try and make the loot that does drop more interesting. As it stands...even the legendary's aren't really interesting.

[Aresk]

There is no point in discussing this further as only raid route is actually the best one. Having 1 trinket from dungeon will fucking suck as you will be given 1-3 possibilities from 100 items.

This is what actually less loot means: there is a real chance you won't drop a specific item for entire tier.

Instead of having smooth progression curve that forging had it will be steep stairs that may have a missing step.

Vault is good only for raiders and only at the beginning. As time goes on it will become less and less useful compared to bonus rolls.

I mathematically illustrated the differences between the two for two separate instances of raids in BfA, given that we don't have full information on Shadowlands raid drops (or at least I don't). Are you ignoring that because it's bad for your narrative, or did you literally just stop reading after one sentence? Unless bonus rolls were 33.33% or better chance of returning an item for the two examples above, the Vault is superior (assuming one roll per week).

Let's look at dungeons. Since I used Feral in the previous example, we'll stick with that and use WoWHead's beta info. Spoiler warning: Dungeon names below.

De Other Side - 6 items
Halls of Atonement - 7 items
Mists of Tirna Scithe - 6 items
Plaguefall - 9 items
Sanguine Depths - 7 items
Spires of Ascension - 10 items
The Necrotic Wake - 7 items
Theater of Pain - 7 items
Total: 59 items (a lot less than the hundred that you listed above, though perhaps feral just gets less gear than whatever spec you're quoting?)

Assuming that the vault pulls from all mythic dungeons and not just the ones that the character ran, we're at 5.08% to get a specific item through the Vault between the three corresponding slots. The break even point for the coin would be between 30.51% (if there are only six items on the loot table) to 50.85% (if there are ten items on the loot table). However, let's account for two attempts per week (since it's a lot more profitable to run a Mythic+ twice in a week versus a raid difficulty twice in a week). I'm going to assume the two rolls have the same % since I don't have details on the bad luck protection increases, so treat the numbers as the average between the first and second roll returning an item:

For X being the average % to get an item from a coin across two attempts and Y being the number of items on the loot table, the break even point would be X/Y+(1-X)*X/Y=0.0508, or 2X-X^2=0.0508Y. Plugging in our value for Y and solving the quadratic equation yields our answers:
For Y = 6, X^2-2X+0.3051=0, and solving yields X = (2-SQRT(4-1.2203))/2 = 16.64%
For Y = 10, the same process gives X = (2-SQRT(4-2.034))/2 = 29.89%

Thus, the coin is likely a lot better if you're looking for an item in a dungeon that only has 6 items in its pool (and you're willing to use two coins on it). However, as the dungeon gets closer to ten items, the two methods start to even out. I was never able to find a specific % that a coin returns an item, but most ballpark figures put it around 20%.

And this all assumes that you're only looking for one piece of gear. As you pointed out, when you're looking for more pieces of gear, the vault is superior because you have more chances for one of the useful pieces to show up.

Having done all of the math, I continue to feel that the Vault is superior to bonus rolls. I obviously can't explicitly define anything without knowing the actual bonus roll percentages.


Edit: Also, because I forgot to mention it above, this is assuming that bonus roll loot and the vault loot were the same ilvl, which isn't the case for M+. Given that the vault items are going to be the higher ilvl versions than what one can get from the dungeons itself, I'd say the vault system is strictly superior to bonus rolls when it comes to M+.

[Wildpantz]

Coins are obsolete within a month of a tier and with 9 choices and no doubles means every week 100% something useful

[MrLachyG]

I'm fine with this. People wanted less RNG, now there's less RNG. Will this impact past expansions that I mog farm is all I care about.

Nah they will leave bonus rolls for past raids in

[kaminaris]

I mathematically illustrated the differences between the two for two separate instances of raids in BfA, given that we don't have full information on Shadowlands raid drops (or at least I don't). Are you ignoring that because it's bad for your narrative, or did you literally just stop reading after one sentence? Unless bonus rolls were 33.33% or better chance of returning an item for the two examples above, the Vault is superior (assuming one roll per week).

It wont be superior as you will not be able to target one of 1-3 items from specific boss no matter how small chance would be.
First of all you are assuming everyone will get full 3 options which quite honestly won't be the case for most people as usual rooster is about 25 people.
Only healers and tanks may be able to get it after like 2-3 months of progression.
2 is more likely.


Second you somehow missed the actual drops from the raids being halved which plays a huge role in your chance of actually dropping item.
Third you aren't looking for just ANY piece of gear. You never were. The only thing that matters is specific item drop.
And for vault realistically is 2/20 = 10% and it stays the same each week.

If you bonus roll the same boss each week you are bound to get item because of BLP. Then you have up from 100% chance (if there is only one item from it) to actually 33% chance.

And considering such things can happen now where you are showered-in-loot, better prepare to not receive some item for entire tier.

So your math is wrong.

And don't get me wrong, vault is better for M+ than bonus roll BUT considering halved droprate, overall loot being lower level, gearing speed will be dogshit.
Mathematically speaking forging system was far superior to low droprate as you will most likely never be able to compete with people that got lucky.

[Mendzia]

Very good change.
All of these small things like this one makes me closer and closer to try the game again.

[tacoloco]

sounds like getting a piece of loot will be more rewarding as we wont have to replace it so often either

I'd be careful about assuming Blizzard will do the right thing.

[Delever]

Its fairly simple, ~2 items per boss with 9 items per boss per 20 people.
vs 5 items per boss with 9 items per 20 people.

Less than half the chance vs current situation. Plus random 1-3 item from vault which is like static chance of ~1-3% each week.

And since currently it happened for us to some guy never get weapon from Raden despite clearing it every weak, everyone will have at least half the chance of what they had now.
Bonus rolls actually gave you some chance to target loot. Vault doesn't.

And it not 1-9 items from chest because these are separate loot.

- - - Updated - - -



This is how you can fool people. You actually believe you have a chance to get trinket you need with 9 chances? No. It will be max 3 chances, out of pool of every item in raids.

The idea is that we will be getting less loot so thats working as intended. Its less loot dropping so epics dont feel like vendor trash 90% of the time again.
Less loot minus all of the current clownery with the extra rng effects on it.

[Aresk]

It wont be superior as you will not be able to target one of 1-3 items from specific boss no matter how small chance would be.
First of all you are assuming everyone will get full 3 options which quite honestly won't be the case for most people as usual rooster is about 25 people.
Only healers and tanks may be able to get it after like 2-3 months of progression.
2 is more likely.


Second you somehow missed the actual drops from the raids being halved which plays a huge role in your chance of actually dropping item.
Third you aren't looking for just ANY piece of gear. You never were. The only thing that matters is specific item drop.
And for vault realistically is 2/20 = 10% and it stays the same each week.

If you bonus roll the same boss each week you are bound to get item because of BLP. Then you have up from 100% chance (if there is only one item from it) to actually 33% chance.

And considering such things can happen now where you are showered-in-loot, better prepare to not receive some item for entire tier.

So your math is wrong.

And don't get me wrong, vault is better for M+ than bonus roll BUT considering halved droprate, overall loot being lower level, gearing speed will be dogshit.
Mathematically speaking forging system was far superior to low droprate as you will most likely never be able to compete with people that got lucky.

Your first point is a good one. That math is assuming that the person gets three chances at loot from the vault. The 10.34% for the razorcoral would drop to 6.89% for two chances and 3.45% for only one chance. Those aren't great percentages, but if that one piece is still incredibly valuable, then that 10.34% would still exist to get the heroic level piece (assuming they also clear heroic, which I see no reason not to). Conversely, if the raid member was sat on that particular fight for the week, the chance of bonus rolling the piece would be 0%. But yes, I concede that for mythic raiders who don't get 10 kills and do participate in the boss kill with the targeted piece, bonus rolls are better.

Regarding your second point, I've only ever been talking specifically about bonus roll removal. The math is only about comparing the Vault to the bonus roll. That's what the topic of the thread is. Yes, fewer pieces of gear will drop, but that change is independent of the bonus roll change. They could have reduced gear drop and kept bonus rolls in; my question is whether that would be better than the vault. As we've discussed, I think it is when someone is full clearing. The usefulness will drop drastically as you fall short of those thresholds (with 2 mythic kills, for instance, greatly favoring coins).

Third, those numbers are looking for a specific piece of gear among the entire raid loot list. The first example I gave was specifically trying to get Ashvane's Razor Coral, ignoring all other loot. When you have multiple pieces, particularly from multiple boss loot tables that you're looking for, the vault becomes vastly superior to coins.

Yes, BLP will eventually 100% net you an item from the boss's loot table, but you have to consider how many items are on that loot table. In the instance where you only have one item on that table and it happens to be the one you want, coins are clearly superior. In the examples I looked at, the bosses that had trinkets that I knew people really shot for had 3 or 4 items on their table, so even with 100% coin chance, you still only have a 33% or 25% chance of getting the item you wanted.

Yes, people will get less loot, but that's because of the loot drop change, not generally because the bonus roll change. Some people will not get their BiS trinkets in a tier, though that still happened in BfA (the only case of loot drama I had to suffer through was a paladin who screamed at a hunter to trade their vita-charged shard since the paladin hadn't gotten one after three months of raiding...the paladin didn't raid with us again). Whether the loot drop change is a healthy one for the game or detrimental to player enthusiasm is a whole different topic that I can't answer with math.

[Unholyground]

I think a good middle ground would be 1 bonus roll per raid lockout per player excluding raid finder.

[Velerios]

Nah, it's a good solution: you mostly only get gold, so i rather have a lower but steadier supply of gear. Bonus rolls are nice to have, but since there is no need to concern yourself about titanforged gear, it's no longer the "must have feature" of this game.

[music49]

this is a good change, no more wasting gold/expansion resource on failed rolls

[Calabera]

Good riddance, long overdue.

[Aggrophobic]

We lose: 2 bonus rolls of our choice, each with a 20% chance of "something" from a specific loot table.
We gain: Weekly chest that has multiple, based on your play/participation, items associated with the content you complete, randomly chosen from all loot tables.

Honestly, kinda balances out, if not gives you even more options on loot.
I mean, bonus rolls were nice when you got what you wanted, but they were also lame af when you got AP or an item you already had (basically, gold).
Hell, I wish I kept track bc I'm pretty sure I bonus rolled more duplicate gear (read: useless) than anything I actually could use this xpac.
Bye.
I'll take the chances with the box.
At least then it's only one disappointment per week (instead of two separate ones).
Win?

You also can't get relevant gear outside of mythic raiding though so that weekly chest is the ONLY way to get gear and it's only really one choice unless you play an insane amount of WoW so it's not much of an improvement even there.