Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Grapemask]

I have seen at least two forecasters giving the same current EV right now without factoring in toss-up states; both Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report right now forecast Biden will get 290 electoral votes while Trump gets 163 EV before the toss up states are factored in.

Worth noting, though, is that both of them predicted a Clinton win in 2016 (Sabato in the 300-range). I think 538 made a good point about pollsters learning a lot from how to weight education in this particular race, but I'll take pollsters and predictions with a grain of salt until Tuesday night.

[kaelleria]

Worth noting, though, is that both of them predicted a Clinton win in 2016 (Sabato in the 300-range). I think 538 made a good point about pollsters learning a lot from how to weight education in this particular race, but I'll take pollsters and predictions with a grain of salt until Tuesday night.

Thankfully the district level polls aren't in disagreement like they were in 2016... So lower polling error hopefully.

PA scares the shit out of me because there was a huge polling miss in 2016. We're not quite out of the the realm of a huge polling miss in PA making it tight so it still is keeping me up at night.

[Rasulis]

Biden leads Wisconsin by 6 or more since June.

Biden leads Arizona by three and has pretty much all year. Arizona Democrats need to get out and vote, like, now.

AZ is already at 64% of 2016 voter turned in. Here is the breakdown by party affiliation. They got the percent distribution messed up, but the numbers are correct.



Here is Colorado. WTH! Almost two way tie between Dem and NPA. WoW

[PACOX]

AZ is already at 64% of 2016 voter turned in. Here is the breakdown by party affiliation. They got the percent distribution messed up, but the numbers are correct.



Here is Colorado. WTH! Almost two way tie between Dem and NPA. WoW

And people like to crap on NPAs...

The voting block is massive.

[Rasulis]

And people like to crap on NPAs...

The voting block is massive.

How do you think Bernie won CA primary? CA NPA voters turned out massively for him.

BTW, Trump is campaigning in Nebraska today. Why? Is Nebraska in any danger of turning blue?

[Thepersona]

I want honest answers: Will the Philly riots/protests move the needle on Pennsylvania? Or i'm worrying too much about a nothingburger?

[Benggaul]

How do you think Bernie won CA primary? CA NPA voters turned out massively for him.

Who was crapping on "NPA"? Hell, I have no party affiliation.

Sounds like a made up argument.

[beanman12345]

Who was crapping on "NPA"? Hell, I have no party affiliation.

Sounds like a made up argument.

Victim complex guy cries he's a victim with made up argument par the course.

[Rasulis]

Who was crapping on "NPA"? Hell, I have no party affiliation.

Sounds like a made up argument.

I think you replied to the wrong post. Anyway, the Dodgers won the World Series. Which gave LA two championships in one year. Now I know that Biden is going to win. Maybe Rams can make it three.

[kaelleria]

BTW, Trump is campaigning in Nebraska today. Why? Is Nebraska in any danger of turning blue?

NE 2 went blue in 2008. It's got the largest city in the state, Omaha, and leans more D than the rest of the state.

[Benggaul]

I think you replied to the wrong post. Anyway, the Dodgers won the World Series. Which gave LA two championships in one year. Now I know that Biden is going to win. Maybe Rams can make it three.

Nah, people just keep quoting people I have on my ignore list so I have to respond vicariously.

[fwc577]

I’m seeing places start to shift Texas from Lean Republican to Tossup and here is me live streaming my reaction:

[Zaydin]

If you want some schadenfreude, Trump apparently left thousands of his cultists stranded at the airport he held his superspreader event at in Nebraska.

[Thepersona]

If you want some schadenfreude, Trump apparently left thousands of his cultists stranded at the airport he held his superspreader event at in Nebraska.

It gets worse/better: "Ongoing coverage of police and rescue crews efforts to treat a number of patients who are suffering medical emergencies following a political event at Eppley Airfield"

https://twitter.com/omaha_scanner/st...03763982888961

The idiots had signs of hypothermia, just because they had the brilliant idea to see a conman

[nonameelf]

If you want some schadenfreude, Trump apparently left thousands of his cultists stranded at the airport he held his superspreader event at in Nebraska.

So he has to bus in his supporters for his rallies and then he just leaves them afterward? His supporters don't sound that dedicated to him if he has to pay for them to show up and he doesn't sound that dedicated to them if he just leaves them after.

[Hinastorm]

I want honest answers: Will the Philly riots/protests move the needle on Pennsylvania? Or i'm worrying too much about a nothingburger?

This crap does really piss off old racist people. Depends how many of them are in PA, and how many of them are able to be swayed by something so minor this late in the game.

I think those numbers are pretty low personally.

[Rokom]

This crap does really piss off old racist people. Depends how many of them are in PA, and how many of them are able to be swayed by something so minor this late in the game.

I think those numbers are pretty low personally.

Most of the people that get pissed off for that kind of thing were likely voting for Trump already. Only time will tell, though.

[PhaelixWW]

And people like to crap on NPAs...

The voting block is massive.

I'm not sure that "crap on them" is the correct term.

But more importantly, they're not a bloc, even in the slightest.

[eschatological]

Depends on the coverage. Philly doesn't seem to be garnering more attention than, say, rising COVID cases, or ACB's nomination. The week before an election is usually filled with "race to the goal line" type coverage as the candidates go everywhere.

And the right wing grifters who would normally cover the Philly violence are still stuck on Hunter Biden, which isn't moving the needle at all.

Frankly, it would tickle me greatly if their manufactured October surprise took their focus away from something that might actually move the needle, because we know how the more volatile protests around the country have made the scared white folks feel. I honestly felt the election had a chance to slip away in July when COVID numbers were seriously dropping and violence at these rallies was on every channel. It seems like Kenosha is the last gasp of that attempt to sway the electorate.

[Breccia]

Two quick things.

One, Giuliani went on FOX News to say "Hunter Biden Hunter Biden Hunter Biden!" this time something about money from China. The FOX News host, Montgomery, said roughly "So, you're Chistopher Steele now" referring to his unsourced unbacked vague accusations. And Giuliani got maaaaaaaaaaaaaad when the 100% apt comparison was made.

I find this conversation totally insulting. You don’t accuse someone of being a criminal without any evidence, on speculation.

So, apparently, Christopher Steele is a criminal. Funny story: Giuliani is accusing Hunter Biden of being a criminal, without disclosing any evidence. He either doesn't have it, or he's refusing to share it. So, yeah, hypocrisy, bonus points for FOX News meltdown.

Two, Peter Berkowitz, the director of policy planning at the State Department, came back to the US with COVID.