Fate of Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence

[Breccia]

Morons.

I mean, people are comparing this to Vietnam and nobody controls the airports. This isn't even "send Ken the Intern". This is "stay the fuck home and just assume it's that bad".

[Omega10]

No, see, I don't have as much of a problem with shooting the pigeons. But derailing a thread is different from engaging a bad-faith argument that's at least on-topic.

And I don't agree with your characterization of the pigeon winning, either. Pigeon got himself banned, though, so you should have a little peace and quiet for a while.

The pigeon also embarrassed Trump supporters. I knew they were delusional, but wow I did not realize how deep they are into their misinformation.

After his lies here, I respect President Biden a LOT more than before this discussion. I also appreciate Vice President Harris a lot more too. Both of them are dealing with unfounded crappy attacks, and doing their jobs anyways. To me, VERY IMPRESSIVE.

The pigeon came, the pigeon lied, the pigeon lost and got banned. I am happy with this result

President Biden - /respect.
Vice President Harris - /respect.

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This opinion piece brings up that I usually say if I agree or disagree.

I'm convinced, this time, I have no idea.

But the basic idea is "the Taliban are doomed to fail".

Why? Because they're basically following the Republican playbook, in that they're "the Party of No". Their big thing was "we will resist the dirty immoral Americans!" and then...we left. They had one job, and they did it. They're built to fight, not govern.

The author then predicts that the Taliban will splinter, lacking their unifying core, and as they fracture so does the region and a whole slew of humanitarian crises spring up.

Again, not sure if I agree. The Taliban seem to like being in power, to the point of murdering people who voted. But then, Trump liked the idea of being in power and then...just didn't do it. And Trump liked these guys.

Time will tell. It is no longer our call. I am just hoping that we make a clean break of it. Most likely, in another month or two the US will be completely oblivious about what does or does not happen in Afghanistan. The people that made a ton of money from our involvement in Afghanistan will move on to another victim.

[Corvus]

The Taliban is more an umbrella organisation of factions and warlords who share a common goal rather than a unified group, so who knows what will happen with them once they assume control.

But they are a Pashtun group with a history of persecution and massacres of other ethnic groups which does not bode well for the future. There is already a resistance to them and already fighting going on, so even after the west pulls out their isn't going to be stability. The resistance is painting them as Pakistani puppets as well, just another in a long list of outsiders trying to claim Afghanistan.

Without reporters it is hard to get a picture of what is going on. There is a lot of misinformation and propaganda being shared but nothing too concrete. The Taliban had announced with a great deal of fanfare they were moving to crush the resistance but have been silent since. There have been claims that the force was ambushed with heavy casualties but again that is hard to prove. There had been video released of lots of dead bodies that the resistance claimed were dead Taliban, as well as Pakistani documentation on them. On the other hand there are claims that Massoud is preparing to surrender, which one British tabloid even picked up on, though Massoud's spokesman said that wasn't happening and demanded a retraction.

The only fact is that there will always be fighting somewhere in Afghanistan.

[Jastall]

Dude, you went full on diva mode there. But lets drop it.

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Given you description of it, I am not entirely sure I agree either.

While the Taliban might be built to fight, they don't need to govern worth crap. In fact, the worse the govern, the more they get to fight within their own borders. And you also got to look at who ends up funding them.

If they have enough in funding, it won't matter how poorly they govern as they will kill anyone who decent and even if they squander everything they have, they will still be able to effectively hold power if propped up by an outside nation. They would essentially be a nation of perpetual conflict with the ones in power being the ones with the most outside funding and brutal tactics.

Edit:

Imagine if the Republican party went full on Taliban (Not the half cocked Taliban they have tried so far) and got outside funding and arms from Russia and China to help control it. Even if they couldn't govern their way out of a wet paper bag, so long as they had the funds and weapons to kill every liberal in site who dared to preach the gospel of science and critical thinking, the attitude to do it, and no one to stop them outside of other liberals. Even if they completely bankrupt the nation and cost it all credibility, the outside funding to keep them going would largely be enough to hold it down with them being nothing but a massive welfare queen warlord.

It would take massive internal upheaval from people willing to get just as dirty as they are in just as large a numbers to do anything about it with a way to counter the outside influencers sending more in to help.

Yeah, the Taliban aren't a unified political party with strong leadership looking to have a complete stranglehold over the country, they're more of a mix of ideological group and militia writ large. Under their tutelage the old ethnic and tribal rivalries will most likely flare up yet again, but that's really just business as usual in Afghanistan, only interrupted whenever they stop fighting each other to fight either for or against whoever the wannabe occupier du jour is (depending on their interests) before going back to killing each other the moment they can.

[Fugus]

Sad thing is, the only way to actually address this would be a 50+ year occupation that outlives the entire old guard and is through enough wiping it out that they actually manage to prevent it from secretly being taught by their parents to their children on a large enough scale that by the end of it, not enough of that ideology is left to stand up to what is there now….

And given the US’s own luck stamping out racism (looks at the modern Republican Party from now since the early 1900’s and prior), we are not the people equip to handle that job.

[downnola]

Sad thing is, the only way to actually address this would be a 50+ year occupation that outlives the entire old guard and is through enough wiping it out that they actually manage to prevent it from secretly being taught by their parents to their children on a large enough scale that by the end of it, not enough of that ideology is left to stand up to what is there now….

And given the US’s own luck stamping out racism (looks at the modern Republican Party from now since the early 1900’s and prior), we are not the people equip to handle that job.

Are you really the "good guys" if you have to impose 50+ years of totalitarianism on a country just to get it to bend to your will? The Afghan people have endured 150+ years of imperialism and suffering, just let it go already.

We have allies that treat women just as bad as the Taliban and we're not discussing the long-term occupation of those countries. What gives?

[muto]

Sad thing is, the only way to actually address this would be a 50+ year occupation that outlives the entire old guard and is through enough wiping it out that they actually manage to prevent it from secretly being taught by their parents to their children on a large enough scale that by the end of it, not enough of that ideology is left to stand up to what is there now….

And given the US’s own luck stamping out racism (looks at the modern Republican Party from now since the early 1900’s and prior), we are not the people equip to handle that job.

Wouldn't work, because the Taliban would be doing the same thing, and are. They have been known to use child soldiers.

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This opinion piece brings up that I usually say if I agree or disagree.

I'm convinced, this time, I have no idea.

But the basic idea is "the Taliban are doomed to fail".

Why? Because they're basically following the Republican playbook, in that they're "the Party of No". Their big thing was "we will resist the dirty immoral Americans!" and then...we left. They had one job, and they did it. They're built to fight, not govern.

The author then predicts that the Taliban will splinter, lacking their unifying core, and as they fracture so does the region and a whole slew of humanitarian crises spring up.

Again, not sure if I agree. The Taliban seem to like being in power, to the point of murdering people who voted. But then, Trump liked the idea of being in power and then...just didn't do it. And Trump liked these guys.

They won't split, because they all believe in the same thing, the persecution of women, and treating them like pets. I've been watching videos on YouTube of towns since the Taliban takeover, and there are hardly any women in the 10 minute long videos, and the ones there are, are covered head to toe and/or with a man.

[PACOX]

Are you really the "good guys" if you have to impose 50+ years of totalitarianism on a country just to get it to bend to your will? The Afghan people have endured 150+ years of imperialism and suffering, just let it go already.

We have allies that treat women just as bad as the Taliban and we're not discussing the long-term occupation of those countries. What gives?

You are basically making the same point as them, that the US has its own problems to address with itself and allies before it can nation building. The Taliban, at least those with the money (and money is power) study American politics like a playbook - Mitch McConnell is their Marcus Aurelius. We have many people of similar mindsets in the US and among allies, the ideas just express themselves in a different culture, less AKs and more legislation and the threat of.

The US is ill equipped to fight the Taliban on an ideological level. We can bomb them for decades, killing an ideology is harder.

[downnola]

You are basically making the same point as them, that the US has its own problems to address with itself and allies before it can nation building.

I think we should forget the idea of trying to nation-build regardless if we have problems at home to address or not. There's no virtue in trying to emulate the British Empire.

[Yadryonych]

Sad thing is, the only way to actually address this would be a 50+ year occupation that outlives the entire old guard and is through enough wiping it out that they actually manage to prevent it from secretly being taught by their parents to their children on a large enough scale that by the end of it, not enough of that ideology is left to stand up to what is there now….

You mean do exactly the same thing that China does to their muslims? Oh my...

[Azadina]

You mean do exactly the same thing that China does to their muslims? Oh my...

As if you have a problem with that.

[Yadryonych]

As if you have a problem with that.

No, I'm just glad to see people coming to sense of how it is a necessary measure

[Azadina]

No, I'm just glad to see people coming to sense of how it is a necessary measure

80 years ago it was called "final solution" and now it's "necessary measure". Target group and slogan can change, but the core idea remains the same it seems.

[Azadina]

World Bank halts all payments to Afganistan.


West decided to cut off Afghanistan from all funds, including ones that Afghanistan owns in various banks all over the world, as punishment for not choosing corrupt officials west has installed for them.

So country that is already in shit state will be even in worse state without access to their money, not being able to buy basic stuff like food and medicine. Country already has no infrastructure after decades of being bombed, cannot feed their own population and now west wants to starve Afghans to death. That will surely fix the issue of extremism!

They allowed Taliban to take charge of the country without much of any challenge, so they can ask all of those things from the new leadership of the country: Taliban. It's not the western countries problem if Taliban doesn't provide anything other than sharia law and bullets.

[Yadryonych]

80 years ago it was called "final solution" and now it's "necessary measure". Target group and slogan can change, but the core idea remains the same it seems.

You mean the idea of eradicating any undesired ideology? Yeah it's seems to be quite popular, and on this very forum as well. Seen multiple occasions of bleeding heart empathisers advocating for segregation, subjugation and oppression of former confederates

[Mihalik]

World Bank halts all payments to Afganistan.


West decided to cut off Afghanistan from all funds, including ones that Afghanistan owns in various banks all over the world, as punishment for not choosing corrupt officials west has installed for them.

So country that is already in shit state will be even in worse state without access to their money, not being able to buy basic stuff like food and medicine. Country already has no infrastructure after decades of being bombed, cannot feed their own population and now west wants to starve Afghans to death. That will surely fix the issue of extremism!

Hitler would be proud of current western governments.

Then people wonder why countries all over the world more and more often prefer to get money from China.

Hold your horses there.

1. Afghanistan had no infrastructure way since way before 2001. What little infrastructure there is, was mostly built afterwards.

2. Are you seriously pretending that the Taliban would use that money to buy food and medicine?
The Taliban that has a history with literally withholding UN food aid from starving people and using it as a weapon to starve hundreds of thousands to death?

Bro. You can be critical of the US and Western involvement in Afghanistan without jumping to hyperbolic bullshit and going full tankie for the Taliban.

[Draco-Onis]

West demands improvement of women rights. How can it be done without money? It can't. So seizing money with demands that west knows are impossible to meet, is just theft.

Okay I will bite, How much does it cost to allow women to go outside without a man? the ability to go the same places as men? having access to the same services?

[Draco-Onis]

How much does it cost to pay basic salary, so women could work instead of sitting at home? Without money it is not possible.

What does that have to do with them having even the option of going outside without a man? it's not possible for women to walk without men?

[Specialka]

Okay I will bite, How much does it cost to allow women to go outside without a man? the ability to go the same places as men? having access to the same services?

Change of culture, education, all that takes time and money to teach.

[Draco-Onis]

Change of culture, education, all that takes time and money to teach.

They were doing that days ago...