Originally Posted by
Shalcker
Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.
Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.
vs
Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).