Predictions for Q4 WOW sub numbers

[Aurust]

I closed my eyes and ticked one.

Not one person here actually knows.

You may tick the right box and guess. Buy saying X IS GONNA happen just decreases the credibility of anything you then post.

Right just like all the analysts that follow ATVI right.... they also have no clue what so ever of whats gonna happen...like there is absolutely no information at all that may help give an individual some sense as to make a very informed opinion that has a higher statistical probability...

For example you say "not one person here actually knows"

I can say with an extremely high certainty based on using my brain to gather and process data that the probability of WOW gaining a net of 5 mil + subs is close to zero.

Pwoooosh!!! do you *hear* ( i put "here", here before, i must've caught the retard virus from the guy i was quoting) that? thats the sound of you getting ownd.....

[ringthree]

The negative community in Wow is a side effect of the game design.

Progression raiding = Elitism, being rude to people who players feel are beneath them
Mob and node tagging = Players don't co-operate
Two faction system = Taught to hate half the games players

I find this hilarious. Final Fantasy XI had incredibly strict end-game content, the claim system was fucked up and you had three different cultural groups all playing on the same server. And the community was a thousand times better than the generalized WoW community.

The nature of the community isn't defined by game design, it is defined by the nature of the members of the community.

[Deleted]

The negative community in Wow is a side effect of the game design.

Progression raiding = Elitism, being rude to people who players feel are beneath them
Mob and node tagging = Players don't co-operate
Two faction system = Taught to hate half the games players

not sure what the system for gathering resources and mob tagging in swtor is, but i'm pretty sure elitism and faction hate will be there...

[Aurust]

Its a zerg rush, no tanks nor dedicated healer means everyone will run at boss and attack to they all wipe or boss is dead, serious skill check. Link your armory or stfu about skill, if you don't have FL on heroic farm, stfu.

It is most definitely not a zerg rush by any means...your just uninformed...... i dont play wow so no armory to link sorry......

[Deleted]

Yes...especially in GW2 where it will take actual skill to play pretty much completely independent of numbers on gear. The retards that is the vast majority of the WOW playerbase will get pwnd so hard that they will stay away....

ah, i see, game for pure elitist

[agnarr]

Actually what will effect subs numbers the most in Q4 is how late SWTOR is releasing in the quarter (20th December).
I suspect that even people who are planning to leave Wow for SWTOR will have their December payment overrun into January.

^ this.

Coupled with the, "get Diablo 3 free if you sub for a year" scheme to slow the bleeding, the 4th quarter numbers won't be as bad, but will still be a loss due to the MoP fallout.

Now, if you want to predict what Q1 of next year will be like, that one will be the worst yet as 4.3 will have been out awhile and the real numbers from swtor launch will be in. Q1 of next year will show 1-2 million drop if not more, imo.

[gmike]

How do people predict a gain??? WoW is on a roll will loosing subs. It's not going to all of a sudden go positive and start gaining players. And 4.3 won't change a think, not enough content to keep people around.

[Landin55]

It is most definitely not a zerg rush by any means...your just uninformed...... i dont play wow so no armory to link sorry......

So, your saying WoW has no skill check or anything and you don't play anymore? Dude, people like you hurt my head. You come here to get on the WoW train of bashing, and all around hate but you no longer play. What was the last boss you did and how long ago? Were you in a guild?
And it will be a zerg rush go watch a video. You keep hitting your spells and then when your low your "food" button out of combat or your "ohshit" button if your are in. If you die, rez up and charge back in.

[Deleted]

Yes...especially in GW2 where it will take actual skill to play pretty much completely independent of numbers on gear. The retards that is the vast majority of the WOW playerbase will get pwnd so hard that they will stay away....

you just disqualified yourself from any viable discussion, what a pity

[Sanctioned]

I was expecting a drop of more like 200-300k for Q3. 800k is a rather large amount so who knows what will happen next. I voted for the 500k-1mil loss option, and count myself as one of them.

Yea that's exactly the numbers I was thinking for Q3 loss. I expected some loss but not much. 800k surprised me.

[Deleted]

I say 500k-1mil loss simply because:
-SWToW launches and even if people sit for 1-2 months on it only as some WoW fanatics might say, this Q4 contains those 1-2 months
-Skrym launches, something tons of players who want a good RPG want to play and something that will suck massive time from people, including many WoW players


Overall this is what I can say. Considering in Q3 WoW had no competition, a brand new patch and dailies, a new zone, mounts etc and still declined 800k, another decline of 500k-1000k is expected from me, and I'm being positive. In Q3 even considering the fact that I thought WoW was going wrong way I only said they'd get a 100k-200k drop yet... surprise for me.

[sam86]

Voted less than 500k, because will the 800lb gorilla is coming out, wow is also coming out with many things

First time I smell desperation when they said "subs always come up at dec", they never said that before in anytime in their time

[anveena]

They're gonna lose around 500,000 more subs.

[moxyshock]

I have been noticing a lot of people from my guild dropping back in to play because they did the one year subscription for free diablo. =p

[Reparator]

Now, if you want to predict what Q1 of next year will be like, that one will be the worst yet as 4.3 will have been out awhile and the real numbers from swtor launch will be in. Q1 of next year will show 1-2 million drop if not more, imo.

Same thought ... Q4 will be ok, ppl will stick around to see 4.3, TOR won't be out ... Q1 we shall see. WoW subscriptions will be influenced a lot by how TOR and GW2 will do. If they will be a disadter, WoW can actually gain subscriptions, otherwise .. I am one of those who see no point in playing two WoW games.

[runeb1980@hotmail.com]

If GW2 has no tanks etc. that sounds like a good thing to me. I'm so ass-over tired of the 'holy trinity' style of playing. Low level dungeons are often much more fun, where if the tank stinks, you have to take turns taking damage and healing eachother, managing threat, splitting mobs, using CC etc.

[Deftone007]

-500k-1mil IMO

[Deleted]

^ this.

Coupled with the, "get Diablo 3 free if you sub for a year" scheme to slow the bleeding, the 4th quarter numbers won't be as bad, but will still be a loss due to the MoP fallout.

Now, if you want to predict what Q1 of next year will be like, that one will be the worst yet as 4.3 will have been out awhile and the real numbers from swtor launch will be in. Q1 of next year will show 1-2 million drop if not more, imo.

True this as well, didn't think of that...

[blaqkmagick]

Goddammit OP you just won't stop with all the blizz hate.
I'm predicting a loss of roughly 500 000 subs, and I know that I won't be one of them.

[pateuvasiliu]

Need I remind you most of these lost subs are in China?

You know, as in... Comunism style ruled country ?

Public beatings and stuff?

Medieval countries shouldn't count.