Crafters Unable to Compete Anymore?

[Zergin8r]

OK, so I need to ask if taking a crafting profession is even worth taking anymore... The basic reason for asking is because of the stupidly high amount of items selling for like 10% of the cost of making them. This may be only my server, but from the official forums it appears to be a widespread issue.

Basically what is happening is, if a crafter either farms or buys materials to make items they are lucky to get even 20% of the investment back right now. For Example, If I were to craft a Vial of The Sands on my server, which used to sell for 35-50k, I would have to spend 30k or so to make it. Good luck selling for even a small profit due to the level one who has been selling them for 3k in trade for the last few days... According to Undermine Journal and from talking to people on my server even asking 10k is alot, the average AH price for them is around 25k for the last 2 weeks however from what I garnered from people, they only actually buy it at less than 20k. How does a legitimate crafter compete with this price if they have to pay 30k in mats, or expect someone else to get the materials for that cost, and then come to you to make it.

More recently, a friend and I decided that we were going to try and sell the new JC Panthers to make some gold early this expansion. It was going well, he got server first paladin, and was able to get exalted with Cloud Serpents to get all the patterns on the first day, While I farmed out the materials needed. As we were saving to make at least one Onyx panther, we kept an eye on the Ruby/Sapphire/Sunstone and Jade Panther prices on the AH and in Trade. They were going for 50-70k for the first few days, but on the third day they inexplicably dropped to less than 25k over a few hours. Meaning every single one sold is being sold at a loss for gold on the AH, since the vendor orb is 18k, and the 6 living steel are still 2k each, so 12k, + about 5k for the gems. So.... anyone selling them is paying 32k approx to make one, and getting 23.5k back. I know they are selling due to the large amounts now running around SW. This also means that when I was asking for offers on the Onyx in Trade, people expected to pay 100k tops.... which means we would be selling it at a net loss of around 90k... Many players would offer amounts like 20k and expect to get it, and when told the real price, they would say I was overcharging.

Even with the crash on trade goods since the first few days of really expensive materials, it is so undervalued that it is literally impossible to sell it for a profit of even 1k. The same is true for the crafted epic gear and pvp gear. Two days ago, it was about 15-20k to get an entire set of pvp made, now there are people selling sets for 5k in Trade despite that fact that the material cost in in fact higher namely for leather. The other thing I noticed is that many players that are expecting to get items for far less than they are worth know that these items are not legit. I was actually told when trying to sell the Onyx Panther at a break even price, that one player in particular was going to wait till hackers brought them down to 10k. One other player completely flipped out and was spamming me with hate messages about how I was demanding 180k in salary for it and how people like me keep people from having nice items ect... when I was selling it for 0 profit using current market prices, not even the inflated ones from 2 days ago. There is no way this many legit players are selling things at a loss to themselves.

I also checked prices on other servers that I have alts on, some seemed normal where the new mounts are 50-80k, though one server in particular had a level one in Org, selling Death Chargers at 10k, and vials at 5k... From my limited experience (5 servers) it seems that high pop servers (ED and Ner'Zuhl) are hit hardest while low pop is relatively normal (Azshara), this obviously has to do with supply and demand, but to see so many people selling items for less than the material cost seems very wrong.

Finally to anyone who reads this, is my server particularly bad, or is this a common issue across many servers.

TL;DR, How can an honest crafter compete with the 50-90% price reduction that farmers/hackers sell items for, and is this problem on multiple servers?

[Greandal]

Well, there's several things happening which greatly affect the market the first (few) week(s) after a new xpac releases; initially everyone's leveling their characters and prices for gathered items are high, since there's also people competing for server first max profession. After the initial rush is over, people who've been focussing on grinding their way to 90 will focus more on their professions. This results in a larger supply of raw materials, meaning that those prices will drop and more people will start to level their crafting professions.

Now the crafters will generally craft similar stuff, which they tend to want to get rid of, resulting in dumping all their crafted items on the AH (either DE'd or not). And as more and more people level their crafting the prices will drop due people wanting to undercut eachother. Even going as low as selling their items at a loss.

A similar thing happened on my server at the launch of cataclysm. Lots of enchanting scrolls were cheap as dirt while they went back up to more normal prices later on ( 30S -> 100G : week 2 of launch -> halfway/end of T11)

Atleast, I think that that's happening now, might go back up later since selling at a loss won't be popular very long :P

[windfish]

the reason the mount is being sold of so cheap is because you have people duping them. Making copies of them through an exploit which blizz has yet to fix. They then sell these dupes for ridiculous prices to screw over the market. You can't really compare the vial of sands sales to profession crafting in general.

[Zergin8r]

So, do you guys think I should wait to sell some mounts, and the price might go back up?

[Deleted]

Ok I read the post but kind of did my head in. You need to understand what is going on as pointed out above.

1. Duping of items was happening last expansion. It costs them nothing but a hacked account. All you can do is report them. You cant compete with someone who has a way of instantly creating the item. This is just widescale cheating and up to blizzard to tackle. Keep opening tickets. Although some might argue someone will sell an item at less than the compulsory mat costs, really it makes no sense and 99% likely the itme is duped or bought from someone who duped it. Annoying but not worth woe is me.

2. The natural flow of supply and demand. Its always crazy at the beginning of an expansion. Things settle after a month. People always guess what other people wnat and are willing to pay. People racing to finish their professions throw away what they crafted as they consider it an expense. They will sell for less than it cost them becayse later on they might get nothing back, because everyone is making stuff.

Please note things will increase on the demand side as people reach 90, but also he supply side will fall when the spawn rate for noes is reduced. You just have to live with the cyrrent environment and think more medium and long term. Buy low sell high, it just may not be the things you were thinking of. Try not to panic and just get smart. Im finding one of the most usual thing to have in stock at the moment is available gold.

[Leobald]

While people might dump stuff on the AH below mats price if they made the item simply for leveling their profession, there is no rational behaviour that would account for selling JC mounts below mats price. It smells very much of duping or some other hack/exploit.

[roahn the warlock]

the reason the mount is being sold of so cheap is because you have people duping them. Making copies of them through an exploit which blizz has yet to fix. They then sell these dupes for ridiculous prices to screw over the market. You can't really compare the vial of sands sales to profession crafting in general.

I just love how even though I spent weeks getting that red deathcharger, they sell for 5kg and one dude is selling 6 of them.

Side note. You also have people who simply don't understand the market. They farm the mats themselves, and not careing, just sell it for whatever. for instance I made a scope, now since scopes take the least spirits we all made them, but with 2 rubies each and people not quite grasping spirits are hard as hell to get. I see them for 300g. the bolts themselves cost 600 on my server for the bars to make them.

also made no money on cloth, wtf with giving a stack per trash pull. lol

[Thelxi]

Your problem is not crafting professions, it is the duping that has gone on for quite a while now.

[Deleted]

Duping is very rational. Blizzard needs to get its act together.

[Deleted]

While people might dump stuff on the AH below mats price if they made the item simply for leveling their profession, there is no rational behaviour that would account for selling JC mounts below mats price.

Sure there is. They made the mounts and put them up for 50k hoping to make some easy money. Then they realized there were 10 other people thinking the same thing and now they're quickly trying to offload their mounts at a loss, hoping to make at least some of the money back.

[Playintrafic]

Its dupers man, no one is stupid enough to take that big of a loss on the mount.

[Deleted]

No. Just no. First stop with the lying and get facts straight. The panthers use 4 Living Steels, not 6. The average price of LS depends on the server, it's dropped already to around 1.2kish on mine. Players have had enough days to get the LS themselves, so the crafting mats are even more cheaper if done that way. What you are seeing now is lots of competition, and idiots trying to sell stuff fast and cheap. It's happening in all markets due to the amount of players getting a hold of crafting mats.

Vials were created with duped Sands of Time, they have put restrictions on the Sands now (requires Alchemy X level to buy). The orbs don't have restrictions, but you pretty much need to be level 90 to buy them from the vendor (the exploit to dupe them is at the actual vendor afaik).

Post proper numbers and evidence in the future.

[DeadmanWalking]

One mistake you are making is adding the cost of mats based on going rate, but if someone collects the mats then the value of the mats is based on the time spent gathering them. If I level up two alts to 90 and come up with 300 mop cloth drops each then the 600 cloth was gained while accomplishing a goal and thus the value of the cloth is ZERO. I can make them into stuff and not fear undercutting because the value of my product is 0.

If you buy your mats then you HAVE to pull in a profit or you loose money. Those who only invest time can sell their goods for any price and make a gold profit.

Still there is a fine art of maximizing profits by undercutting and not undercutting your self out of profits.

[Zergin8r]

Sorry about saying each mount took 6 living steel, that was a mistake on my part. We were making 6 steel per day which is where that number came from.

[land]

It seems like you are expecting to find cheap mats now and sell things for a high price, in this scenario there's nothing hold more competitors to get in your market thus pushing selling prices low (more available) and mats high (increased demand). What i do: buy mats when they are low, sell when they are high. People won't be able to compete unless they also bought mats low like you else they will be taking a loss or won't even get in your market. As long as u keep selling your stuff enough to keep buying mats when someone post them cheap, its a win. Even if you have to stock on them a bit its good, that way you keep the mats costs high (cuz u bought the cheap ones) thus making harder for competitors to get in. Dunno about u guys, that's how I play the ah game.

[Kharli]

meh ENgineers in low end servers(like my server DMF EU) welcomes you..we basicly sell per haps 2-5 mounts per faction then thats about it, now i haven't even seen any of the new engineering mounts on AH, the cost of them are like 80k(to even get some damn profit)

[Deleted]

One mistake you are making is adding the cost of mats based on going rate, but if someone collects the mats then the value of the mats is based on the time spent gathering them. If I level up two alts to 90 and come up with 300 mop cloth drops each then the 600 cloth was gained while accomplishing a goal and thus the value of the cloth is ZERO. I can make them into stuff and not fear undercutting because the value of my product is 0.

If you buy your mats then you HAVE to pull in a profit or you loose money. Those who only invest time can sell their goods for any price and make a gold profit.

Still there is a fine art of maximizing profits by undercutting and not undercutting your self out of profits.

you're wrong. you forgot opportunity cost. you could just as well have sold that cloth at fair market price instead of turning it into an item. If I were to get a purple BoE while doing a 5 man heroic, equipping it is not zero loss, but whatever that epic was worth on the AH, because i could have gotten that much from it if I sold it.

number example: if a stack of cloth is worth 20G and I received 600 cloth from leveling my character (a side effect), that cloth is worth 12K on the market. I then need to choose whether I sell that 600 cloth for 12K or take the risk and craft it into something that could be worth more, but can also cost less if the prices are against you. it's a basic economic principle: nothing is pricelessly valuable, but nothing is valueless either (bar a few select items of extremely great value or of extremely low value).

[themortalgod]

you're wrong. you forgot opportunity cost. you could just as well have sold that cloth at fair market price instead of turning it into an item. If I were to get a purple BoE while doing a 5 man heroic, equipping it is not zero loss, but whatever that epic was worth on the AH, because i could have gotten that much from it if I sold it.

number example: if a stack of cloth is worth 20G and I received 600 cloth from leveling my character (a side effect), that cloth is worth 12K on the market. I then need to choose whether I sell that 600 cloth for 12K or take the risk and craft it into something that could be worth more, but can also cost less if the prices are against you. it's a basic economic principle: nothing is pricelessly valuable, but nothing is valueless either (bar a few select items of extremely great value or of extremely low value).

Exactly, and to expand on it a little farther, you need to think of your own net worth in terms of the value of all your saleable materials plus your gold, not just your current gold price.

For example, in the real world: If you are an Apple employee and as part of your christmas bonus you are given 100 shares. Your net worth has just risen about $700,000, now if you go an sell those shares at $350/share (half the market price) your net worth goes down by $350,000 because you sold the materials at below market price.

The same applies to wow materials, as soon as a material enters your bag it increases your net worth by the value of that material, when the material leaves your bags (whether by AH, trading, or even using it) your networth decreases by the value of that material. Thus when crafting you are essentially making a trade with yourself. You are trade X materials in exchange for Y crafted item. If the net worth of X exceeds the net worth of Y you are functioning at a loss and losing money.

Think of the process like this:

You farm for 2H which nets your 2000g in materials. Farming thus has a profit of 2000g per 2 hours. You are now worth 2000g more.
You craft and item with those mats which you can only sell for 1000g. You are now worth 1000g less functionally making your time worth 1000g or half of what it should be.

Which then goes back to the original issue of the OP, if a user farms materials worth 180,000g to craft an item that sells for 90,000g they are losing 90,000g every-time they choose to craft. Which suggest either A) stupidity B) ignorance C) shady practices such as duping.

Now there is one other major factor to consider that doesn't really apply to these super expensive mounts but applies in general. The above valuation only takes into account your net worth in gold. If you earn something else as a result of that crafting you may consider that loss worthwhile. Say if you are only level 590 and craft and item that makes your 595. Even though you end up selling that item at a loss you may decide that the loss is worth those 5 levels.

This is a problem that game has had for years in that Blizzard makes end game crafting recipes available to non max level crafters and thus the value of those crafted items suffers the entire expansion because of this. Flasks are a good example of such an item.

[Gratlim]

As of now, as an engineer / enchanter i struggle to make big money 2. Enchanting is just pure loss if you think mats prices etc. Managed to make maybe 500g profit turning 5 cheap dust in 1 higher level mat.

Enginering I did pure loss too (like nodes googles thing: players sell it for like 50g on my server, knowing you need 1 Spirit of Harmony to craft it. It doesn't even cover the price of other raw materials). Manage good profit selling Tinker's Gears around 250g / per with a cost of 2 ghost iron bar / per.
Right now, enginering mounts are so costy I don't even plan to craft one as I hardly see anyone buying a blue rocket mount 80k+ when they can have a Spectral Tiger or Magic Roster for just a little bit more. Main issue so far: price of living steel.

Also I see ghost iron nodes everywhere and wish I was still a miner :s