US economy contracted last quarter - uh-oh

[Grummgug]

Plenty of economists successfully predicted the Tech Bubble Burst of early 2000s and Housing Bubble Burst of 2008.

revisionist history. i lived through it and i can tell you that anyone who forecast the tech bubble burst in 2000 was considered stupid. I remember the housing bubble. I personally went to city hall for meetings where id tell the city to not blow up the commercial district and build a bunch of homes because it was going to crash and they refused to listen and sent in a parade of economic experts that told me otherwise (i did manage to blunt their plans by about half).

So dont tell me lots of people saw it.

[Rukentuts]

revisionist history

So you want a logical thread, but you don't want us talking to experts or posting historical facts because it's "revisionist history"?

Good luck.

[melodramocracy]

Taking out the spin, we can definitely say the odds of rising unemployment just got a whole lot better.

I'm not sure how anyone can feasibly see employment numbers getting better on a yearly basis, unless those numbers are fudged.

[araine]

Huh? Im not saying we are in a recession. But its a worthwhile and tinely discussion to explore what happens IF we are in a recession right now, compared to boring back-and-forth spinning the reasons why this has happened.

---------- Post added 2013-01-30 at 07:58 AM ----------



Like ive said three times now, im not interested in debating the reasons why. Its really not an intelligent discussion because it turns into the same boring arguments. Im interested in exploring what happens if were in a recession.

What happens is all the right wing pundits will go ballistic screaming how Obama did this or did that. with the intention of putting communism in America, Yeah it is what the useless pundits on the extreme far right wing also known as the current base of the GOP. constantly have been saying for years now.

[Grummgug]

This is like going to the Emergency Room with severe stomach pain, and when the doctor starts asking questions you say, "who cares why this happened, just make it stop!"

That only makes sense if asking why it happened implodes into several doctors debating politics for days instead of treating the patient. terrible comparison.

[Daelak]

Lowered military spending due to the Afghanistan draw-down and Hurricane Sandy. Can someone say 5-10 trillion dollar state stimulus program?

[Rukentuts]

That only makes sense if asking why it happened implodes into several doctors debating politics for days instead of treating the patient. terrible comparison.

Sometimes doctors disagree on the diagnosis; this is why tests are run.

[Daelak]

As usual, pundits are going to spin this both ways depending on their interests, but this is not good news.

a reccession has in modern times been defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This is one. If next quarter is down, or if the previous quarter gets revised down to negative, we have a recession.

Taking out the spin, we can definitely say the odds of rising unemployment just got a whole lot better.

The odds of decreasing the workforce participation rate is already very high due to the fact there are 10,000 baby boomers retiring weekly. Coupled with the fact that employers are not replacing these baby boomer positions with the same amount of salary, you have a gap to jump. Federal stimulus program for all 50 states in the neighborhood of 5-10+ trillion should get us back to 7-9% GDP growth.

[Fugus]

Edited: Misread so disregard.

[Azrile]

As other people have said Sandy and National Defence cuts were the biggest issues and one time things. Consumer spending was up 2.2 percent which is a positive sign that things will pick up next quarter.

Not going to go all political on this.. but the Republicans will pounce on the ´big´number but fail to mention that it was caused by a cut-back on gov´t spending (something they want).

The numbers look good actually.. 2.2 consumer spending growth is great. As a financial conservative, I would love to see a 2 year recession caused by a big decrease in gov´t spending but at the same time have consumer spending be at 2%. This is exactly what financial republicans want!! Cutting gov´t spending (especially on defense) is only a bad thing if it leads to unemployment which would reduce consumer spending. But if you can cut gov´t spending without affecting consumer spending.. go at it!!!!

[Wells]

Wait so any explanation of the contraction is just political spin?

Right.

[Deadvolcanoes]

That only makes sense if asking why it happened implodes into several doctors debating politics for days instead of treating the patient. terrible comparison.

Actually it's a really good comparison.

The short of it is this: Consumer spending is up, business spending is up, and we cut military spending to it's lowest level in 40 years.

There is no recession.

[Rukentuts]

Wait so any explanation of the contraction is just political spin?

It's revisionist history.

[Daelak]

Not going to go all political on this.. but the Republicans will pounce on the ´big´number but fail to mention that it was caused by a cut-back on gov´t spending (something they want).

The numbers look good actually.. 2.2 consumer spending growth is great. As a financial conservative, I would love to see a 2 year recession caused by a big decrease in gov´t spending but at the same time have consumer spending be at 2%. This is exactly what financial republicans want!! Cutting gov´t spending (especially on defense) is only a bad thing if it leads to unemployment which would reduce consumer spending. But if you can cut gov´t spending without affecting consumer spending.. go at it!!!!

Because their ideology doesn't make any sense. They are not fit to govern the US, let alone Somalia. They are beholden to an ideology that doesn't exist. We need a massive public works and state stimulus program in the neighborhood of 5-10+ trillion dollars. We are the only country with the power to steer the global economy away from recession, and with inexperienced, ideologically pure republicans in the house and senate, we cannot get shit done to improve the lives of Americans and the global community.

[DeltrusDisc]

Pretty sure it's been widely accepted that we've mostly been in a recession the past several years. AKA shit economy, right? :P

[Wells]

It's revisionist history.

I do eagerly await the crying from the Right about how this is Obama's fault after crying for government spending cuts.

[Rukentuts]

I do eagerly await the crying from the Right about how this is Obama's fault after crying for government spending cuts.

It's because it's led by military cuts. They're mad they couldn't get their 4% GDP fix like if Romney was elected.

[Wells]

Pretty sure it's been widely accepted that we've mostly been in a recession the past several years. AKA shit economy, right? :P

A recession isn't defined as "a poor economy". Its usually either defined as two quarters of GDP contraction or a significant rise in unemployment over a year.

[Daelak]

I do eagerly await the crying from the Right about how this is Obama's fault after crying for government spending cuts.

I can't wait to see their heads explode on meet the press

[Wells]

It's because it's led by military cuts. They're mad they couldn't get their 4% GDP fix like if Romney was elected.

Also remember this:

If you lose your job its because you were lazy or because your job wasn't economically viable anymore.

If a bunch of people lose their jobs its Obama's fault.