Originally Posted by
Wezmon
"To all you naysayers who think it's possible for this to simply not have happened, allow me to give you a lesson in statistics.It isn't even remotely imaginable.
Items off world bosses like Sha and Galleon are rolled on a per character basis, similar to the new system for LFR. Each character is given an equal chance of looting the mount.
Let's be very ridiculously conservative and assume the mount drops 0.001% of the time (1 in 100,000). This is a smaller percent drop than anything in WoW, ever. This means that every time someone kills the Sha, he or she has a 99.999% chance of not seeing the mount. Each time a Sha is killed 40 players get a chance to roll on it.
I'll assume people have been killing the Sha for 12 weeks now, at least 5 times per server, per week, yielding 60 Sha kills per realm, which in turn yields (40*60) = 2,400 looting opportunities. I feel that even the lowest pop realms reach this number, but if not, realms like Illidan have way more to compensate. Again, I'm being very conservative.
A trip to wowprogress reveals 246 US realms, and 267 EU realms, totaling 513 realms.
The Sha of Anger has been looted at least (2,400*513)= 1,231,200 times since launch. I'd bet every penny I had that it's been looted more.
Statistically, the chance of nobody getting the mount by now is .99999^1,231,200 = 0.00045%, or 1 in 222,362. That's roughly similar in magnitude to you winning the $10,000 Powerball this week, buying only three tickets.Alternatively, there is a 99.9996% chance of someone having the mount by now. This is with me being very conservative. As I increase the number of kills, this gets more and more ridiculous, because we're dealing with an exponential.
Let's be crazy and assume it's killed 10 times per week per server. Now the chances of nobody willing are 1 in 49,444,818,741. This is the chance of you winning the Powerball Jackpot every week for the next 5 years.
Have I made my point?"
from Azeban on officail forums