2013 MLB Thread

[belfpala]

Two reasons why Kuroda won't get a Cy Young this year - record & uniform. It's shit the amount of run support the guy gets, if he had a semi reasonable offense behind him he'd be right up there with 5+ wins more than he currently has...

They've been better about that recently, with Greinke and Felix winning recently despite their W/L columns.

[draynay]

Wins get the edge when other stats are close, last year Dickey had the edge in Wins, Innings, and Ks over Kershaw's ERA. Wins themselves don't trump everything, but if Scherzer's other numbers got comparable to the other guys the wins could put him ahead.

They do a good job looking at the whole picture when it comes to Cy Young in recent years. I would expect, if the season ended today, they would give the award to Felix & Kershaw based on ERA, WAR, and Ks. The last time they really botched things was when they gave it to Colon for winning 21 games instead of to Santana for being better than Colon in every way, and it looks like they missed in the NL that year too, giving it to Carpenter instead of Willis and Clemens because... reasons?

[conscript]

His overall numbers aren't as good as some other guys, but Yu Darvish should get some Cy Young consideration with all the splashy outings he is having, 14-15 strikeouts, mulitple no-hit bids.
I favor Kuroda a little bit because he doesn't get to face Houston as much as Darvish or Felix; there are a bunch of pitchers having really good seasons in both leagues, but it might just be Kershaw's to lose in the NL.

The top 3 in the AL has to be Darvish, Kuroda, and Scherzer. Obviously as a Tigers fan I am leaning Scherzer, but I am absolutely fine with any of those guys winning it. Darvish is blowing away the Ks. Scherzer is a full WH better in WHIP/9 than either of those guys (.9 WHIP) and should break 20 wins shortly. Kuroda is dominating ERA stats. His ERA+ is way better than Scherzer or Darvish. Not going to go into advanced advanced stats because if I load Fangraphs the productivity of my day will end, but if I had a ballot I would go Scherzer, Darvish, Kuroda because I think wins and strikeouts matter and Scherzer just edges Darvish thanks to his superior WHIP.

[VanillaO]

The important ones to me are ERA, WHIP, K/9, and IP. There are other important stats too, but when looking at whether the guy was just winning a lot (Scherzer - not to take away from his year, he's had a great year, and based on being 17-1 at this point, that's pretty damn impressive and possibly enough alone to win the Cy Young), I tend to care less about W/L and more about other stats - like when Felix won a few years ago. Also, the IP difference won't really be fleshed out to the max until the last week or two, where you see who the real workhorses are.

So with that
ERA, WHIP, K/9, IP
Scherzer: 7th, 1st, 3rd, 9th
Darvish: 4th, 3rd, 1st, 14th
Kuroda: 2nd, 4th, 35th, 13th
Hernandez: 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st

To me, you have to drop Kuroda and add Hernandez to the consideration. The only flaw (as usual) is he plays for a shit team, so if Detroit or Texas run away with a playoff spot, that may hurt him (against all logic, which to me says it should help.. but what do I know).

[koodledrum]

All those are important, but I'd also be looking into the even bigger picture by looking into who each pitcher has faced, lets be fair, you can lead the league in ERA/WHIP/Kper9 but that means jack if you're facing the Astros, Mariners & Angels for 1 in every 3 starts, the other guy is facing say the Red Sox, Orioles & Rays every third start. Innings pitched isn't really a solid indicator in my eyes, case in point, CC Sabbathia, he's pitched 160 innings this year & been brutal for most of them, Andy Pettite the same thing - it shows you're a horse but it doesn't show if you're an effective horse.

I'm not taking away from the fact Scherzer's had a blinding year to this point, hell he's 17-1 for a reason, but record is no indicator, otherwise guys like Felix Hernandez wouldn't be in contention - he pitches his ass off every night, but if your offense doesn't come through for you you'll lose decisions and if you've only given up 1 earned over 8 innings but get tagged with a ND or a L that's a false indicator.

Even taking K/9 is a bit risky, especially when you consider that not every pitcher is a strikeout pitcher - there's also a case of efficiency as well, in 154.2ip Kuroda's thrown 2398 pitches, in 158.2ip Verlander's thrown 2691!

Thank god I'm not a voter for awards!

[EchoesIE]

Wins get the edge when other stats are close, last year Dickey had the edge in Wins, Innings, and Ks over Kershaw's ERA. Wins themselves don't trump everything, but if Scherzer's other numbers got comparable to the other guys the wins could put him ahead.

They do a good job looking at the whole picture when it comes to Cy Young in recent years. I would expect, if the season ended today, they would give the award to Felix & Kershaw based on ERA, WAR, and Ks. The last time they really botched things was when they gave it to Colon for winning 21 games instead of to Santana for being better than Colon in every way, and it looks like they missed in the NL that year too, giving it to Carpenter instead of Willis and Clemens because... reasons?

Not sure why people complain about Pay-to-Win MMOs...when the Dodgers are doing the whole Pay-to-Win in big league sports. Equality for all!

[Stommped]

FYI - I hate the Sox, diehard Cub fan so this is not homerism

I can't wait for when W/L is abandoned completely. The most worthless stat in all of sports. You guys are discussing who is the AL CY Young winner and no has mentioned Chris Sale, he's 1st in WAR, 5th in WHIP, 4th in K/9, 5th in ERA, and 1st in CG. That's the ONLY guy who is in the top 5 in every relevant pitching stat that has been mentioned in the past few posts, and he's not even considered because of his record. Not only is he dead last in run support for ALL qualified pitchers, he's .5 of run behind the 2nd to last guy, that's a HUGE drop off, and that's after getting 6 runs last night. Meanwhile Scherzer is #1 in run support, .4 runs ahead of 2nd place Dempster. Seriously why are we using this for any kind of measuring stick at all? I think they should move to using quality starts, as in Sale has 18 QS in 22 GS so his record would be 18-4, and so on.

Someone else brought up a good point though, in comparing these pitchers it really isn't fair to compare these pitchers' stats without factoring who they are pitching against, which as far as I can tell isn't done in any of the major sabermetric pitching stats. Other than the Tigers, the offenses in the AL Central are pretty garbage right now (especially the White Sox), which means Scherzer has a huge advantage over someone like Kuroda who is going to be pitching the majority of his games against the the AL East teams who all have very good lineups. So much to consider and factor in when trying to determine the best pitcher for the entire season, but if I ahd to rank them right now it would be:

1. Felix
2. Sale
3. Scherzer
4. Darvish
5. Kuroda

I'm still kind of shocked no one even mentioned Sale...

[draynay]

The malaise that is the White Sox season is going to affect him, like I said the wins can be a tie-breaker, and unless Sale jumps way in front he loses that tie-break to everybody. He is right there with them in terms of productivity but not far enough ahead to overcome his lousy teammates.

[Stommped]

I guess I just believe it shouldn't be used at all, not even for tiebreaker. Detroit's team batting average is 7 points higher than St. Louis, the second highest and then on top of that they have Cabrera so anyone in the Central has a distinct disadvantage, and any Tigers pitcher (Scherzer) has an advantage. I think I want to update my rankings and swap Scherzer and Darvish.

[koodledrum]

For the record - Kuroda's breakdown

Boston & Baltimore - 3 each
Dodgers & Rangers - 2
Oakland - 1

The only "big" one he's not faced is Detroit.

Scherzer

Baltimore - 2
Boston, Oakland, Yankees, Rays - 1

Hernandez

Rangers - 3
Oakland, Yankees, Boston - 2

Forgot Darvish!

Oakland, Yankees - 2
Boston - 1.

[tiffy33]

breaking news: Instant replay on everything EXCEPT balls and strikes. Seems it will work like NFL as managers will get 3 challenges.

[belfpala]

For the record - Kuroda's breakdown
...

Are you trying for some kind of "Strength of Opponent Faced" here?

- - - Updated - - -

breaking news: Instant replay on everything EXCEPT balls and strikes. Seems it will work like NFL as managers will get 3 challenges.

What? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

[Stommped]

Are you trying for some kind of "Strength of Opponent Faced" here?

I think that was the intent yeah. But he forgot Sale again.

[conscript]

What? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

Not sure why angry... Are you that guy who is anti-replay because it "slows the game down" or "takes the human element out of the game"?

Preemptive responses to both anti-replay arguments:

Replay is bad because it slows down the game:
LOL. LO F**king L. Baseball has a celebrity first pitch every game. Baseball takes an extended break to sing in the 7th inning of every game. The players don't need that extra long break. They spend 90% of every game standing in a single spot or sitting on the bench. The only player it is actually helpful for is the pitcher and most starting pitchers are out of the game at that point so it is irrelevant. Every pitch takes 5 seconds longer than it should because of stretching, scratching, spitting, or the batter aimlessly wandering around to throw off the pitcher because umpires never enforce that rule. Baseball is the molasses of professional sports. Replay isn't going to hurt playing time at all except for maybe in New York where it will stretch the average Yankee/Sox game to 4.6 hours instead of 4.5 hours (they are the two slowest paced teams in the league and have been for years afaik. Who knows why).

The Human Element Makes Baseball Great:
Angel Hernandez, CB Bucknor, Joe West, the game that the refs blew earlier this year between the Red Sox and Rays, Armando Galarraa's perfect game, etc. I shouldn't even be able to name those guys, but I can because they constantly put themselves into the spotlight thanks to horrible calls, ridiculous ejections, and just a massive impact on the outcome of games. When the humans supplying the Human Element are absolutely abysmal at their jobs, the Human Element should be removed.

[belfpala]

Not sure why angry... Are you that guy who is anti-replay because it "slows the game down" or "takes the human element out of the game"?

Oh, I'm not angry because more replay. Not at all.

There should be a fifth umpire watching the same plays and replays the fans watch, with veto power. So, if anything, I'm for MORE than what they're doing.

[conscript]

Oh, I'm not angry because more replay. Not at all.

There should be a fifth umpire watching the same plays and replays the fans watch, with veto power. So, if anything, I'm for MORE than what they're doing.

Ohhh you meant to the except balls and strikes part lol. I can't wait until they do add a booth operator and someone leaks that they spend most of their time watching television.

[belfpala]

Ohhh you meant to the except balls and strikes part lol. I can't wait until they do add a booth operator and someone leaks that they spend most of their time watching television.

Several televisions, with all the different camera angles.

(Balls and strikes I don't care about, as long as the HP ump is consistent for the whole game for every pitcher from both teams.)

[koodledrum]

I think Instant Replay became a bit of a requirement when little league basically showed MLB up - about time they had someone ensuring the umps get the big calls right.

Now they need to get those umps who want to be the centre of the game & eject people for breathing and kick them out of the game.

[tiffy33]

there have been a TON of very obvious blown calls over the last few years including at least one blown perfect game and then the mysterious infield fly rule in the Braves Cardinals game. Its about time.

[kidsafe]

there have been a TON of very obvious blown calls over the last few years including at least one blown perfect game and then the mysterious infield fly rule in the Braves Cardinals game. Its about time.

It's amazing that umps manage to screw calls up even AFTER using replay. See the Indians vs A's game where a HR was called back even though multiple camera angles clearly showed the ball hitting the wall above the yellow demarcation. Angel Hernandez, Bob Davidson and Joe West are the worst umps.