Considering there was only 1 sentence about Wow in the last conference call and Starcraft getting the vast majority of attention i predict more of the same.
The one sentence about Wow as follows ~
"As of December 31, 2012, Blizzard Entertainment’s World of Warcraft remains the #1 subscription - based MMORPG, with more than 9.6 million subscribers."
I predict that the figure of 9.6mill wont go up, how much it goes down is all everyone wants to discuss.
Korea closed 14 servers this month, but considering this upcoming conference call is for 1st Jan to 31st Mar this wont effect it much.
For me personally, I own shares of ATVI stock and the game performance can have a real impact on the stock price. I picked it up in November 2011 for about 13.50 right after the MoP expansion was announced and the stock decreased until February of this year where it reached around 14.50. It's currently sitting at 14.82. If WoW performs poorly, it's time for me to dump the stock. If MoP is doing well though, it's worth hanging on to.
My thoughts on it though is that MoP is going to see another loss of about 800,000. Most of those I assume will come from the Asian market. If my hunch is correct, the stock just isn't worth holding on to. One of the biggest things I look forward to is this quarterly report for guidance.
As for other things I expect to see, probably more updates about Starcraft, probably something about Diablo having an expansion this year, definitely something about Hearthstone and probably a "big announcement" for Blizzcon which will probably be the next game, and on that note, also something about Blizzcon.
Last edited by Thetruth1400; 2013-04-28 at 03:55 AM.
I predict there will be threads of pro-WoW and anti-WoW people going at each other to claim the game is dying/China is to blame/QQ Diablo launch sucked/SC2 doesn't count/Blizzard is killing XYZ game.
Also maybe a Hearthstone is for children thing in there too.
...In all seriousness, I think it's a drop overseas but stable in NA.
--- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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As I said in the previous thread - either subs stayed the same or went down. If they went up - Blizz would've already put out a press release saying so as they did 1 week after Q3 ended.
As I said in the previous thread - either 200-400k loss tops. I'm not playing so I can't comment as to why that might be (odd for me to be even hazarding an informed opinion, I know :P) but basically, from the outside, I don't see anything that would be pulling people away from WoW like Diablo 3 did with the 1 mil lost last time - and there REALLY wasn't a major radical shift in gameplay design since Panda launch that I know of... but then again the CRZ garbage is still in on PVE realms (which is why I'm not playing and many MANY have voiced as well) and I've read the problems with gating behind dallies still being some kinda issue...
Definitely expecting subscription loss, but it is difficult to estimate. They are making some really strange changes in the next patch. Some of them are really good, some of them are just difficult to justify.
I am kind of excited for 5.3, but I'm definitely not going to be playing my Warrior anymore.
Many posters using the numbers to bolster their own opinions.
Subs drop: "SEE I TOLD YOU NORMALS WAS TOO HARD"
Subs rise: "SEE I TOLD YOU FOLKS LOVE PANDAS"
Subs stay the same: "WOWS DEAD NO NEW BLOOD"
--- Want any of my Constitutional rights?, ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
I come from a time and a place where I judge people by the content of their character; I don't give a damn if you are tall or short; gay or straight; Jew or Gentile; White, Black, Brown or Green; Conservative or Liberal. -- Note to mods: if you are going to infract me have the decency to post the reason, and expect to hold everyone else to the same standard.
I honestly don't care what they have to say, mainly because anything related to any upcoming game will be at Blizzcon, and I don't care about the whole "subs" thing. The game IMO is fantastic and better than it has ever been, and anyone who wants to leave because they feel other wise, they can and will. Their opinion. Blizzard has tried very hard this expansion and with more people working on the game than ever before, I'm cool with the direction of the game and the next expansion coming up.
I predict that I don't care what the results are. What matters for me is that I still enjoy the game and that the people I care about still enjoy.
Don't give a rats ass if 1 million+ people just up and randomly unsub tomorrow, and it boggles my mind how people on these forums practically froth at the mouth waiting to hear how many subs WoW loses. Kind of pathetic, IMO.
I don't think they are gonna loose subs, I will say they will gain more subs
And special bulletin, Flying mount are remove from the game :troll
MoP is pretty good, ToT is good as well. I just did Firelands for the first time, omg that was amazingly bad. Everything about it was absolutely awful, I don't understand how something like that gets released. I think WoW will continue to see fallout from Cataclysm. The game is much better now but Blizzard severely damaged the social fabric of the game, perhaps irrevocably. There are huge imbalances between the classes in DPS, healing and tanking, I don't get why Blizzard doesn't realize that is bad for their bottom line. I think Q1 numbers will be pretty good. On the other hand I predict Q2 numbers will not be good unless Blizzard finally decides to balance their game. Something they haven't done in 3 years.
Doesn't take a genius to predict sub changes for a game that's 8 years old.
Too bad an inevitable stage in any popular products popularity is used as a way of strengthening negative opinion that can be as diverse as the playerbase.
You see it in every damn thread as subs have gone down. "It was due to x! -No it was due to y! -Guys, it was obviously z. -You're all wrong, it's because of Hello Kitty."
Is Apple as a company failing because the iPhone isn't the behemoth it once was? When Samsung at some point will stop increasing in the global market, are the Galaxy smartphones dying?
So sick and tired of this mentality that WoW subs has to go up by half a million every quarter, or else it's obviously doing something wrong. The biggest factor in WoWs declining subs is its age. That's it. Cliché. Hard to prove. Yet that's simply it. How many new players have you met recently? How large can the potential "new player" base be after this long? Up until Cataclysm, the game was still new enough (not to mention unchallenged by other MMOs) to attract way more new players than players quitting. Eventually those will equalize, then players quitting the game will be higher than the new players coming in.
And I'm certain there are people reading this post thinking things like "PvP is an unbalanced mess, that's why!" or "I don't like ToT/the latest raid, obviously no one else does." or even "I STILL HAVE TO DO DAILIES/MONOTONOUS TASKS NOW AND THEN?!"
None of which are anything unique to MoP.
Active WoW player Jan 2006 - Aug 2020
Occasional WoW Classic Andy since.
Nothing lasts forever, as they say.
But at least I can casually play Classic and remember when MMORPGs were good.
Melodra, you said it perfectly .
I agree, like the numbers numbers from this quarterly report will already be outta date when they are released. Even if there is a rise or drop, I will still play.
Its the same pattern like usual, if the sub numbers drops, its becomes this big deal (Blah, Blah, Blah), If the subs rise there apparently faked or BS'd (Blah, Blah, Blah).
All I'm gunna be doing is what I do every quarterly report, is sit in a comfy lawn chair with sunglasses & popcorn and watch the show. Because its kinda of pathetic that people that who don't play the game they seem to really care about the games sub numbers in general & also try to scrap up any crumbs that they can scavenge just to give a game they either hate or don't play anymore a negative light or perspective.
Last edited by Arbs; 2013-04-28 at 10:33 AM.
I don't always hunt things, But when I do, It's because they're things & I'm a Bear.
25 million subscribers.