I understand why they've slight decreased the difficulty of the last bosses but I still feel like I have cheated if I don't get to kill it as it was made.
I understand why they've slight decreased the difficulty of the last bosses but I still feel like I have cheated if I don't get to kill it as it was made.
I would liken normal BGs to "normal/heroic dungeons" and not "normal raids". That being said, I would fully expect you to be able to clear any LFR in mostly PvP gear as DPS or one of the healers.
I would not expect PvE gear to work well in rated BGs and arenas, though, just as I would not expect PvP gear to work in normal and heroic raids.
Just look at Strand of the Ancients.
This BG is the exact same for Horde and Alliance, yet in this case Horde has outplayed Alliance which should tell us that in the polled players the average Horde player was simply a better PVP player otherwise it is hard to explain the gap for a BG that is identical for both factions.
Outside of AV and IoC all BGs are reasonably close, Horde has outperformed Alliance a little bit but not as bad as they did during Strand of the Ancients which is identical.
Everyone knows how imbalanced AV and IoC are and it's time Blizzard fixes this and don't give me this "take this away from alliance". That is total crap, everyone wants fair and fun BGs and not BGs that are simply looked at free win grinding.
I guess people are afraid that if they balance IoC and AV that the Horde will start to dominate and the alliance wins will be unbalanced compared to now. AV I understand because of chokepoints but with the damn Isle, Really Horde? All you have to do is destroy the docks and disregard the stupid ass workshop. Why does the Horde always go for the damn workshop when you can just use superior manpower and take the docks away from the alliance?
Because the docks are a losing battle.
Horde can't get there before it is already tapped and then you can't win there simply and even if you kill the glaives there are still the catapults that brings alliance into the fortress quickly while the Gunship... well the Gunship is awful.
If Docks were not so good why are Alliance players afraid of moving the flag position on docks and gunship so that they are equally far from each spawn point? It's a simple solution.
The problem with AV isn't AV. The problem is being able to blacklist battlegrounds. In 2011 the win ratio was a lot more balanced: 54 to 46 compared to ~20ish to ~80ish now.
Most horde blacklist AV so it is just filled with bots.
The blacklist is why the win ratio is so unbalanced now not the map.
The simple fact that Horde shows such a major advantage in every BG that is entirely or nearly identical for both factions shows that Horde is better at PvP.
We can disagree about the reasons. Personally, my opinion is that the average Horde player is probably older and more experienced. They are also probably more likely to look at all aspects of their character and options before making a race decision (instead of simply choosing someone that looks like them anthropomorphically, like Alliance races).
These factors generally favor Horde, because the minor advantage in racials (yes, Horde's are better, but this is a very minor actual BG difference) causes better players to join Horde more often and THAT is what makes the huge difference.
Alliance PvP racials: Every Man for Himself (strong, frees up a trinket slot), Stoneform (weak), Gift of the Naaru (weak/medium), Escape Artist (medium), Shadowmeld (weak), Darkflight (weak)
Horde PvP racials: Blood Fury (weak), Hardiness (weak/medium), War Stomp (strong, probably the strongest PvP racial), Berserking (weak/medium), Da Voodoo Shuffle (weak), Will of the Forsaken (medium, would be strong without shared CD), Touch of the Grave (weak), Arcane Torrent (strong, probably the 2nd strongest PvP racial), Rocket Jump (weak, probably the weakest PvP racial, Goblins probably worst race for PvP)
So out of that list, War Stomp and Arcane Torrent make great differences. But Human is probably 3rd best race for PvP. The difference I suppose being that overall, there are just MORE in the Horde list. But again, this doesn't explain the UNGODLY disparity between Horde/Alliance on mirror maps.
Therefore, Horde is better at PvP (on average).
- - - Updated - - -
Because Alliance is closer to Docks flag. Period. And it's significantly closer. Alliance can cap that flag BEFORE Horde arrives, and then it's just such a cluster so that it doesn't matter that Horde can eventually take it because it takes longer than a minute to down the 20 Alliance that went Docks and glaives will be up by then. And saying that all you have to do is down the glaives doesn't negate the fact that you get them. Basically, the Horde is forced to play D no matter what while Alliance doesn't ever have to play D to win. And that's what makes that BG unbalanced. If they just moved that Docks flag about....15-20 yards north, that place would be dramatically different. The other 2 nodes are basically equidistant.
"There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
"The bit about hardcore players not always caring about the long term interests of the game is spot on." -- Ghostcrawler
"Do you want a game with no casuals so about 500 players?"
Ah yes, typical Horde. Whining as usual.
The stats just show that generally, the alliance are better at PvE. Also, most players are alliance. We are a majority. Not everyone wants to be playing as ugly orcs, trolls or cows.
Issue is IOC has ZERO to do with map balance.
Here is the problem.
I'd rather they were all balanced, which they nearly are, the outliers are problems - I'm sorry if you can't see that.
I know, that's why I put in casual/pug groups - I've never played IoC outside of this format, but I imagine getting your group to send over a small division of stealth/burst DDs is a lot easier when the group isn't made up entirely of people with a split division of tactics.
I am the lucid dream
Uulwi ifis halahs gag erh'ongg w'ssh
A lot of this is also about inertia. Alliance have won AV / IoC so much that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy on Horde side.
bg's are good for melee only. they ruin them with all the stun b.s, and the general education of bg's needs to be explained to alliance mostly. something like in this battle the object is to get a horde flag have it carried and protect from your entire group when the flag carrier is safe have a team go retrieve the alliance flag and please notice the healers healing the flag. also explain do not stand in the middle attacking anything they can. education is a huge must in bg,s
Not sure how your math works. A horde/alliance win ratio of 60/40 doesn't mean a "10% in favor of horde". It means that the horde win 20 percentage points of the time more than alliance (60 minus 40). It also actually means that the horde win 50% more often than alliance (60 is 150% of 40). These numbers mean slightly different things, but they are both correct, and in neither case is "60 is 10 more than 50" actually relevant to anything
In AV, Horde used to be able to mount inside the gate at the starting tunnel. Alliance wasn't able to, and I suspect that largely evened out the distance/time that the two sides had. Now, Alliance is across and almost at Galv before Horde are even off the GY at Iceblood. Couple that with the jumping-the-fence thing, and it's going to be Alliance dominated. Glaives are overpowered, and most Horde go Workshop in IoC - most of them trying to do the cheapshot of getting Demos and sitting at the keep GY to one-shot people rezzing, which Alliance figured out by just steamrolling them with Glaives. If you bust the Glaives, it's almost certain Horde is going to win it.
The real issue isn't the fact Alliance dominates those two BGs, the issue is that Horde absolutely crush Alli in any BG that doesn't have a PvE standpoint/can't be zerged. I've got Strand and Temple blacklisted, because I can't stand either of them; Strand, it's usually whoever's on the Offensive first wins. Horde just seem to start on O more than we do. Not sure what controls that, but I imagine balancing that out would make that one a lot more even. Over a third of all the Strands I've ever done, end up being a turtle at Yellow with people camping the stairs to stop bombs. Not very fun, just an attrition war (like most of the non-zerg AVs and IoCs turn into). People have been saying that Horde racials/PvP elements are way too strong, ever since Vanilla, and maybe now Blizz will pay attention to that fact. I'm seconding that they do comparisons with data pre-blacklisting option to get a better handle on what's adjusted what where, and how the changes between those times have reflected.
But I honestly doubt even with this, the only thing that will happen is a hard nerf to Alliance in AV and IoC. If nothing changes as far as making it more even so that Horde doesn't absolutely smash Alliance in the other 9 BGs anymore, I doubt I'll be even bothering with PvP post getting my Battlemaster/Khan finished. I play Horde as well, but it's not fun when your team sits and GY camps the other side. Might be good for a laugh every once in a while, but when it happens all the time, it's hardly a thrill, or very sportsmanlike conduct.
Tl;Dr - this needs to be fixed, but I highly doubt that it will be as far as balancing the other 9. Alliance is just going to see a hard nerf on the two we don't constantly lose, and non-arena/RBG PvP will continue to suck for Blue, and be amazing for Red (when they're not sitting in 45 min queues).
There were so many issues with AV map being pro-alliance, and its only recently that Blizz has decided to address it is sad.
If these balance issues were addressed 'sooner' I probably still be playing.
Can the article poster please post the Mathematics used to calculate the battleground win percentages for the past month?
How was the percentage calculated for a sample of 7 million players? What was/ how was the math done - please post your fumula or calculation used. I am also highly doubtful of the accuracy of posted win ratios if they are taken armory statistics because these statistics reflect a characters entire bg data since character creation which could have been 7 years ago.
The win ratio's that i have arrived at are:
A horde players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~80%( + or - 5%)
An Allaince players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~24% ( + or - 5%)
These win probabilities i posted above are derived from the data aggregation and its subsequent calculation using two different methods. One method is using a wow addon called reflex. The other method is a manual aggregation of statics of new character's statistics, meaning a new character created since the release of the MOP expansion. Both the data which was compiled and gathered by reflex, when calculated matched up with the win probabilities i have calculated by manual aggregation of bg statistics for a new character. My calculations are explained below. Different mathematical calculations and different data aggregation based on probability theory arrive at similar win probability ratios. Read the rest of the of the post to find out how to do these calculations.
Here are my calculations and my understanding of how win ratio's should be calculated - BG stats that are not recent should not be used. Win probability calculated from over 1,2 , 3 or more years worth of PVP or more should not be used.
If you just created a new character in MOP and these were your statistics, this is how you would accurately calculate your Alliance random BG win probability for this season:
Alterac Valley battles 25
Alterac Valley victories 18
Arathi Basin battles 13
Arathi Basin victories 5
Battle for Gilneas battles 8
Battle for Gilneas victories 2
Eye of the Storm battles 15
Eye of the Storm victories --
Strand of the Ancients battles 29
Strand of the Ancients victories 7
Twin Peaks battles 15
Twin Peaks victories 6
Warsong Gulch battles 12
Warsong Gulch victories 2
Silvershard Mines battles --
Silvershard Mines victories --
Temple of Kotmogu battles 2
Temple of Kotmogu victories 1
Isle of Conquest battles 29
Isle of Conquest victories 28
Deepwind Gorge victories 4
Deepwind Gorge battles 17
Since you have no stats for silver shard mines, maybe because you blocked it, the total number of battlegrounds is 10 otherwise it should be 11. What this means is that you have a probability of 1/10 of getting into any of these battlegrounds from the random bg queue. This is important because we will now use this to calculate your overall battleground win probability when you join the random bg queue for PVP.
your random bg win probability is:
(1/10) * (18/25)-Alterac +
(1/10) * (5/13)-Arathi +
(1/10) * (2/8)-Gilneas +
(1/10) * (0/15)-Eye of +
(1/10) * (7/29)-Ancients +
(1/10) * (6/15)-Twin Pks +
(1/10) * (2/12)-Warsong +
(1/10) * (1/2)-Kotmogu +
(1/10) * (28/29)-Isle of +
(1/10) * (4/17)-Deepwind +
= .1 * .72 + .1*.384615 +.1*.25+.1*0+.1*.241379+.1*.4+.1*.16666+.1*.5+.1*.965517+.1*.235294
=.072 + .0384615 + .025 + 0 +.0241379 + .04 + .016666 + .05 + .0965517 + .0235294
= .3863472721 * 100 = 38.6% win ratio in the random bg queue since MOP expansion
Now let us calculate alliance win probability based on your stats without the big battlegrounds. We should be leery of the large PvE centric battlegrounds, which i believe have been adjusted to balance or rather i should say skewed to create a false sense of balance between factions in PvP. Now let us remove the two big PvE centric bgs from our calculation to find out a player's real win probability. If we remove the big battlegrounds which alliance has a high probability of winning evident by the stats posted; alterac valley and Isle of conquest. So then when we remove these two bgs from the queue we have a total of 8 possible random bgs that we will queue up for, hence 1/8 (this should be 1/9 but no stats given for mines). I will also remove the Kotmogu bg from this calculation because the sample space is too small to be accurate - basically this bg was played too few times only twice. Therefore the total number of battlegrounds are 7, hence 1/7. The following calculation should be the true measure of an alliance players win probability in the random bg queue:
(1/7) * (5/13)-Arathi +
(1/7) * (2/8)-Gilneas +
(1/7) * (0/15)-Eye of +
(1/7) * (7/29)-Ancients +
(1/7) * (6/15)-Twin Pks +
(1/7) * (2/12)-Warsong +
(1/7) * (4/17)-Deepwind +
= .14286*.384615 +.14286*.25+.14286*0+.14286*.241379+.14286*.4+.14286*.16666+.14286*.235294
= .239707 * 100 = 24% win probability for alliance players in the random BG queue.
This 24% win probability for alliance feels right.
Here is some data from a horde player who just recently created a fresh 90 in the MOP expansion. To find out the win probability in the Random bg queue of a horde player i used the following calculations ;
(1/11) * (8/11)-Alterac +
(1/11) * (6/10)-Isle of +
(1/11) * (29/39)-Warsong +
(1/11) * (19/20)-Gilneas +
(1/11) * (17/21)-Arathi +
(1/11) * (17/19)-Twin Pks +
(1/11) * (9/11)-Ancients +
(1/11) * (7/8)-Kotmogu +
(1/11) * (4/4)-Mines +
(1/11) * (8/9)-Deepwind +
(1/11) * (7/25)-Eye of +
=.090909*.727272+.090909*.6+.090909*.74359x+.090909*.95+.090909*.8095+.090909*.894736+.090 909*.818181+.090909*.875+.090909*1+.090909*.88888+.090909*.28
=.78065398 * 100 = 78.06% probability of winning in the random bg queue for horde
We should be leery of the large PvE centric battlegrounds, which i believe have been adjusted balance or rather i should say skewed to create a false sense of balance between factions in PvP. Now let us remove the two big PvE centric bgs from our calculation to find out a horde player's real win probability.
(1/9) * (29/39)-Warsong +
(1/9) * (19/20)-Gilneas +
(1/9) * (17/21)-Arathi +
(1/9) * (17/19)-Twin Pks +
(1/9) * (9/11)-Ancients +
(1/9) * (7/8)-Kotmogu +
(1/9) * (4/4)-Mines +
(1/9) * (8/9)-Deepwind +
(1/9) * (7/25)-Eye of +
=.111111*.74359x+.111111*.95+.111111*.8095+.111111*.894736+.111111*.818181+.111111*.875+.1 11111*1+.111111*.88888+.111111*.28
= .806657 * 100 = 80.7% win probability in the random BG queue for a horde player
When you compare this horde win probability to the alliance win probability i calculated earlier which was equal to a 24% win probability for alliance, both probabilities roughly adds up to ~100 with a + or - 5% error / deviation.
Therefore i conclude that the horde are steam rolling alliance in battleground. My Statistics calculations show that they have a 80% win probability when joining a random bg queue. While alliance players have at best a 24% chance at winning a bg in a random bg queue. Please note that my statements are contingent to both of the large PvE centric battlegrounds being blacklisted and removed from win probability calculations.
I have a theory that blizzard is aware of the steam rolling of alliance players in PVP and is therefore tweaking the PVE aspects of the large bgs to balance PvP between the factions. Because the statistics do not add up i suspect this. What i mean is that if the horde are steam rolling alliance in 9 out of 11 bgs by hudge margins then that begs the question why are they only losing in the big BGs that are PvE centric.
In regards to my calculations I did not cherry pick the data for my calculations. I also have not biased the results of the calculations by using my own data. In my calculations that i have posted i have used only the pvp stats posted by others in the battle form thread called "Dispelling a myth - Alliance win ratio". I have also written out all my calculations and the reasoning behind them. I have specifically excluded the large PvE centric bgs from both the horde and alliance win probability for reasons i explained in my posts on this thread. I used only the recent PvP stats/data that was posted in that battle.net thread, This means recent stats, explicitly mentioned by posters which correspond to MoP expansion, not 3 or more years of pvp stats. I also used only the data from the first alliance player and the first horde player who posted their pvp stats in that very thread on blizzards forum.
A horde players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~80%( + or - 5%)
An Allaince players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~24% ( + or - 5%)
An alliance players win probability when including the 2 PvE bgs is about 38%
A Horde players win probability when including the 2 PvE bgs is about 78%
There is almost no difference in a horde players overall random bg win probability, a 2% difference when including or excluding the 2 big PvE centric bgs. However there is a big difference for an alliance player, a 14% difference in the random bg win probability for an allaince player if the 2 large bgs are included or excluded.
How come a horde player only has a 2 percent difference in their win probability from the inclusion or exclusion of the two big bgs(alterac & isle of..) while alternatively the alliance player has a huge percentage difference of about 14%?
If you use the reflex wow addon can also accurately calculate your win ratio . The following reflex data was taken from a horde poster in the same battle.net thread. If the reflex calculations are 8 to 31 or 8:31 then you can calculate your win ratio like so:
When odds of losing an event are A:B
Then the probability that you will lose the even is P(E')= (A)/(A+B)
Where P(E') is the probability that the event will not occur.
So in your case the odds given by reflex were;
8:31 = (8)/(8+31) = (8)/(39) = .205128 * 100 = 20.5% chance of losing in the random bg queue.
In order to get your random BG win probability you would need to subtract the probability of losing the random BG from the total sample space. By the first axiom in probability your calculated win or losing probabilities must be between 0<P(E)<1. By the second axiom of probability theory the total sample space is 1, P(S) =1. There fore:
P(Probability of Losing bg ) - 1 = |P(probability of wining BG) |
.205128 - 1 = .7948 * 100 = 79.5% chance of winning a bg in the random bg queue
An alternative way of calculating the win ratio is by If reflex shows that you won 31 bgs and lost 8 bgs, then you have played 39 total games
31/39 * 100 =79.49% wins in BGs recently, this would be your most up to date win ratio with bg sample space data gathered and compiled by the addon reflex.
The win probabilities compiled and gathered by reflex when calculated match up with the win probabilities i calculated using different mathematical calculations based on probability theory. Hence i believe that my predictions about alliance and horde win probability are arguably valid because similar probability is arrived at by the add-on reflex's bg win/played data aggregation which is then calculated and computed differently from the calculations and data aggregation i used based on probability theory with different sample spaces of different players.
Therefore:
A horde players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~80%( + or - 5%)
An Allaince players win probability when joining a random bg queue is ~24% ( + or - 5%)
Last edited by stochastics; 2014-03-20 at 05:04 PM.
As for the rest of your post, this isn't something we talked about at all, just individual battleground ratios. If you wanted to combine win ratios in this post with weights from these numbers, you could repeat your wall of calculations.