Mafia 65: Murder on the Orient Express

[dupti]

Well, that wasn't really the best response but if you're busy I guess it's fine.

Anyway first of all, yes I did say one of your posts was okay but that wasn't the post I quoted. Your last post day 2 was okay but wasn't enough for me to change my read on you.

How am I tunneling on you when I haven't voted on you a single time? My vote is even on Dranx at the moment. I find it interesting how you are already trying to discredit me.

Bus a teammate? As far as I am concerned we could have two scum teams (or at least a SK), so I don't really think that is a valid point. I don't need to 'convince' myself that you were bussing Bomber for you to be scum.
But I am not a fan of you bringing it up though, because in the intermission game you were bussing a lot as well, which means you would certainly do it. So I think you you bringing it up now for no reason at all is pretty weird so I do want to consider it a possibility now. I called you scummy because of your playstyle not because of the scum flips. My read on you has nothing to do with Bomber or Catta.

[Deleted]

Lelly(366), Celtic(376), Dranx(378), Razamith(379)

This is the people on the Kurenai train before the cop claim. Well there were more but I left the dead people off the list. I'm happy pressuring any of them.

Like I said earlier I am also happy to pressure Dupti he was very defensive with Pala and he is playing differently to the way he normally plays when I play with him...but I'd rather pressure the others first.

At one stage the day looked like this-

Kurenai (3) - Lelly(366), Lysah(367), Robo(368)
Dupti (2) - Catta(348), Maxilian(350)
Cruelle (2) - Bomber(294), Largehorn(334)
Catta (2) - Crackle(281), Dupti(320)
Largehorn (1) - Celtic(312)
Kel (1) - Dranx(336)
Crackle (1) - Robo(295)
Bomber (1) - Danner(360)

(thanks to Dendrek for the copy an paste)

At this stage this is where Kurenai really picked up and you might think they were trying to avoid Bomber but he only had one vote on him right here. Kurenai reached 6 by 379 while Bomber was on 1. Bomber went to 2 with my vote on 382. So I think it could be more about avoiding the Godfather than avoiding Bomber when those votes were cast.

Happy to pressure Dranx.

Vote Dranx

[Deleted]

So yeah, If I understand correctly I'm getting votes because I didn't vote on the Catta train day 2 and instead voted for Kel. Can I just ask people to go back and actually look at my argument against Kel(#336) compared to the laughable argument against Catta. It may not have been a great argument but it had basis in what had happened in the game and actually made some sense. The argument against Catta from what I could understand of 20 posts it took to explain was that Catta ordered his team to kill Virothe because of a clear joke post Virothe where he vaguely jokingly threatened to vote Catta?

Catta flipping scum doesn't validate the arguments against him in the same way Bomber flipping scum doesn't mean the protecting largehorn(a Mason) argument was valid. The only reason anyone in this game needed to not be on the Catta train is a little bit of common sense as was the case for all but 2? people.

Maybe I just don't get this game but from my perspective as town at the start of the game especially the most important thing you can do is vote to try and get the game moving forward, thats motivated everything I have done so far. Its why I pushed Kel over the totally illogical Catta push and why I switched to the marginally less ridiculous argument against Kurenai. It honestly infuriates me, we have people who have barely cast a consequential vote all game but I'm getting bandwagoned for actually trying to push trains.

By all means keep piling onto me but forcing my hand while ignoring everyone else isn't going to be a productive use of this day.

[Dendrek]

It is as "likely" we have 2 mafias made up of Agatha Christie detectives as it is that there is one larger mafia made up of them.

Two things to note about Blood fox:

1) He's a jerk.
2) He smells funny.
3) I'm sure his fiance is a great guy.
4) He is perfectly happy fucking with town by giving us slightly misleading information.
5) In his last Agatha Christie game, he had 2 mafias but never once gave any hints as to which mafia members were a part of which mafia, leaving town completely in the dark about the existence of 2 mafias until the mafias themselves admitted it while being lynched.

Did I say 2 things?

Until we know otherwise, do not take for granted that two people who flip detective (from the Agatha Christie books) are actually in the same mafia. That said...

6) In his last Agatha Christie game, the mafias did not have Godfathers.

This last point is relevant here, because unless he had a change of heart or there's some other mechanic in this game to counteract the existence of (at least) one Godfather, precedent would suggest that if there's a Godfather present it's less likelihood there are two mafias. It's not much of a precedent, of course. What really sucks is that unless we see a second Godfather flip, we'll probably never know if there are 2 mafias are not.

Personally, I suspect we're dealing with one slightly larger mafia and 2 SKs (or 1 SK, 1 Vigi, 1 Mafia).

-------------------------

My top suspicious people right now:

FoS: Dranx, Tumppu, Raza, Reti

[Reticence]

Ret tends to have lengthy informational posts however, but still would like more.

If you want my opinion on something in particular, you'd be better off asking, as you probably won't be getting an encyclopedia any time soon. The only way I'm going to be able to play with my new work schedule is if I take a more casual approach to games, which means less notes, vote tracking and verbosity.

This is actually my first game in a long time going completely off-the-cuff. It's... disconcerting. But it's also a decent memory exercise for work, so hopefully it works out.

Celtic's callout of bomber gives him some points.

I'd be wary of giving him too many points for that. It's classic Celtic to predict when a teammate is going to go down and come out against them, guns blazing.

Also, I'm mildly concerned about your post. Was your intention an overview of the day? Do you feel more strongly about any of the individuals you mentioned over the others?

Also, same thing I asked the last time you mentioned my activity level; do you have something in particular you would like me to look at and weigh in on?

[PalawinFC]

Personally, I suspect we're dealing with one slightly larger mafia and 2 SKs (or 1 SK, 1 Vigi, 1 Mafia).

-------------------------

My top suspicious people right now:

FoS: Dranx, Tumppu, Raza, Reti

I can't really entertain the possibility of a vigilante. There are so many people with almost no posts who i would be going to town on as a vigi. I think it has to be three scum factions doing the kills, whether it's dual mafia or dual sk.

[Reticence]

@Dendrek:

Thoughts on Lysah?

- - - Updated - - -

@Dendrek:

Thoughts on Lysah?

Don't mind me. Ignore this.

Vote Lelly

[Dendrek]

I can't really entertain the possibility of a vigilante. There are so many people with almost no posts who i would be going to town on as a vigi. I think it has to be three scum factions doing the kills, whether it's dual mafia or dual sk.

True. I think it's unlikely as well at this point, but it's unnervingly common for Vigi's in our games to go after scum reads rather than low participation players. Certainly if there is a Vigi he's proven himself to be no better than an SK by this point.

This is actually my first game in a long time going completely off-the-cuff.

I was wondering why your playstyle had changed so much this game. I realize you don't have notes to go off of, but I'd really like your thoughts on, well... anything substantial that's happened so far this game. Even without notes, you must have reads/intuition/something. I suppose I *could* make a list of things I want your opinion on but I'd much rather see what you come up with on your own.

@Dendrek:

Thoughts on Lysah?

I felt bad about killing her.

I mean...

[PalawinFC]

Why is everyone so quiet. Feels like day 9 instead of day 4.

[Crackleslap]

Why is everyone so quiet. Feels like day 9 instead of day 4.

It's the dead hour(s) for us aussies.

[Reticence]

It's the dead hour(s) for us aussies.

It's early Monday morning for Americans, too. Kind of a shitty timeframe all-around.

I was wondering why your playstyle had changed so much this game. I realize you don't have notes to go off of, but I'd really like your thoughts on, well... anything substantial that's happened so far this game. Even without notes, you must have reads/intuition/something. I suppose I *could* make a list of things I want your opinion on but I'd much rather see what you come up with on your own.

Well, like I said before, I'm not really fond of Lelly or Celtic at the moment.

It's a bit harder to find patterns when you're dealing with votes in groups of 1-6, but using the same snapshot Cruelle provided earlier and assuming for a moment that scum attempted to defend Catta after he received his second vote, the most interesting individuals are those who started subsequent alternative trains.

Knowing that Bomber and Catta were scum, and assuming that Maxilian is not playing the really-obvious-scum strategy by following Catta, the two that come to mind are Dranx on Kel and Lelly on Kurenai. I think Dranxadin would have picked a more impactful target if he was attempting to deflect, whereas Lelly's train seemed more calculated for results. I'll admit to some confirmation bias, however, in that I find her scummy on a character basis as well.

[kel]

dont really see much reason for the pressure on drax, seems like a very defensive move from dupti. However drax's response wasnt of much help either

[Lellybaby]

HI everyone,

sorry I haven't been around before now. Internet (Optus) was down across Brisbane from last night till this afternoon.

Poor Catta. Whenever he gets an awesome mafia role he usually dies early.

And Danner as Cop! Didn't see that!

What I find interesting is that we are missing flavour text from both dead mafia rolecards.

[Deleted]

It is as "likely" we have 2 mafias made up of Agatha Christie detectives as it is that there is one larger mafia made up of them.

Agree but still looking at various ways the game maybe set up. In game 41 we had 2 different style of mafia's (worth noting no godfather in that game). The mafia's were made up of bad characters (everyone on the island had been bad somehow anyway) but the crimes and the people who committed them had been very carefully chosen for their specific group. For example the guy who hated Germans wasn't put in the same mafia group as the Nazi scientist. Everyone had their place. This is more trickier because were dealing with 1 group of people who could combo out in many different ways for many different reasons.

Two things to note about Blood fox:

1) He's a jerk.
2) He smells funny.
3) I'm sure his fiance is a great guy.
4) He is perfectly happy fucking with town by giving us slightly misleading information.
5) In his last Agatha Christie game, he had 2 mafias but never once gave any hints as to which mafia members were a part of which mafia, leaving town completely in the dark about the existence of 2 mafias until the mafias themselves admitted it while being lynched.
6) In his last Agatha Christie game, the mafias did not have Godfathers.

1.He isn't a jerk, he's a bitch, that's why I like him.
2.I can't defend the tuna smell.
3.I know he is great guy he made Blood watch Voyager probably to perfect his death stare seen as Janeway has one of the best death stares on tv.
4.Spot on.
5.Yes it took to the last day to finally sort out the teams, it caused an excessive amount of discussion.
6. And so far we have had 1. If their are two teams I expect we will at least get to see another.

Did I say 2 things?

Ah ha! trick question! cause you actually did say two things even though the things you covered where more than two. Feel like I should get a medle for figuring this bit out

[dupti]

@Dendrek,

Can you explain your read on Raza?

@Dendrek:

Thoughts on Lysah?

I'm curious Ret, where were you going with this?

dont really see much reason for the pressure on drax, seems like a very defensive move from dupti. However drax's response wasnt of much help either

Care to elaborate? I could understand if you thought I was being defensive about the 'guilty check on me' theory, but not sure I understand how me pushing on Dranx seems like a very defensive move.

- - - Updated - - -

-snip-

It's not about your reason for voting on kel but the timing.
The Largehorn train had just died and at that point Catta was the only alternative 'train'.
As soon as someone offered another train (Max voted on kel) you jumped on it without even addressing the Catta train.
It's actually really interesting that you call out the wagon on Catta now but didn't do it back then, because apparently this means you thought the train was stupid so why exactly did you not bring this up before?

[Deleted]

Your train on Catta was never going anywhere, you yourself didn't even seem to understand the reason it started. How did I jump on the first alternative, Largehorn and Cruelle had already gotten votes at this point.

[dupti]

Um, yes I did understand the reason. You don't seem to understand why I voted on Catta though.

I clearly just stated that the Largehorn train died and Catta seemed like the next guy to get pressured - not because the read was solid but because it was the alternative to the Largehorn train. It's true Cruelle did get one vote as well right before you voted (same as the kel vote), but that doesn't change anything since you don't have two votes. Point still stands.

I think you ignoring Catta is very suspicious especially if you believed the train was stupid, also when you voted it was still possible for the train on Catta to get going. Crackle's read on him wasn't strong but that is irrelevant since none of the trains had any strong logic behind them.

It should be fairly obvious you aren't doing a very good job at defending yourself, so I honestly believe you should just claim at this point. People are pretty inactive this game, so if you are town I don't think it's a good idea to wait too long before claiming since there are no other trains at the moment.

[Xanjori]

Right now I'd be most inclined to vote Dranx or Dupti. It feels like Dupti is trying too hard to create pressure everywhere.

[Razamith]

I'd be wary of giving him too many points for that. It's classic Celtic to predict when a teammate is going to go down and come out against them, guns blazing.

Also, I'm mildly concerned about your post. Was your intention an overview of the day? Do you feel more strongly about any of the individuals you mentioned over the others?

Also, same thing I asked the last time you mentioned my activity level; do you have something in particular you would like me to look at and weigh in on?

On celtic: Celtic's callout was directly after bomber's vote and fairly aggressive. To me it read more like countersuspicion than bussing, meaning i put it more likely opposite teams (whether maf2, sk, or town) than same. Haven't ruled out anything, and i was pretty suspicious of celtic up to that point (and after, since this eval is in retro with bomber/catta knowledge) but this was my read on that situation.

On my post: Yes it was my intention. BOTH catta and bomber coming up scum and being involved in trains/discussion makes rereading those events enlightening (to a degree) and changed some of my thoughts on people. I wanted to lay it out to see if people agree and/or picked up anything else from it. Now the "single colored dual mafia" possibility has me a bit worried now, but the eval would still somewhat apply to possible team activity.

On your activity: Ok it can make a BIT more sense with your admission of job activity/playstyle this game, but you know this game only works for town when people discuss in order to either figure things out or get reads on people. Someone having virtually no posts/content either lets them skirt by or detracts from reads/public knowledge. Why am i explaining this to you? I dont have anything in particular to ask, but my notes on you are slim to none. Actually lets gets something rolling then: what's your thoughts on tumppu, as suspected by dupti? IE his content and answer today.

[Reticence]

I'm curious Ret, where were you going with this?

Initial votes on Kurenai look suspicious; I was narrowing down suspects after ruling out the dead and forgot Lysah was among them already. I would actually have considered her more suspicious than Lelly due to tying the Kurenai train with Catta's, but we know that isn't the case, whereas it's still plausible that Lelly started the train to obfuscate that entire situation and provide an alternate train for townies to vote on.

On your activity: Ok it can make a BIT more sense with your admission of job activity/playstyle this game, but you know this game only works for town when people discuss in order to either figure things out or get reads on people. Someone having virtually no posts/content either lets them skirt by or detracts from reads/public knowledge.

I am aware. I gave my thoughts on the individual days as they were happening, though, so I have to assume you want some Reti-esque conspiracy theory to vet. I am sorry to disappoint.

Actually lets gets something rolling then: what's your thoughts on tumppu, as suspected by dupti? IE his content and answer today.

Mixed feelings, actually. Tumppu's a team player, so I can't imagine he would have voted on Bomber if he were his ally, especially since I would bet that Bomber told his team he was going to claim cop before he did it. I may be misremembering the timeline of that particular exchange, of course, but he seemed too anti-Bomber to be on his team.

On the other hand, I'm not really fond of posts that only consist of batting away suspicion, which is essentially what his last reply was. If there are two mafias, he'd be a nice pick for the non-Bomber team, but otherwise I don't feel that strongly about him.

On another topic, can someone explain to me why Satsu's character-claim gave him a free pass? Something seems off about his delivery this game, but everyone seems convinced he's town. Am I missing something?