Mafia 65: Murder on the Orient Express

[listo95]

Bugger it could be ages away then. That's almost as depressing as my PA not getting my Beyonce Castle joke.

Okay so it's looking like Uggors game will be next at this point then assuming he can get it organized in time, then after that you or Kleos then the other (hopefully Kleos can run it by then) and then Blood Fox again ha. That's looking to be the order currently. Hopefully no one else drops out because after that it's Arlee then Me and Pistol and we haven't even started working on our game, we planned to start ~3 games before ours.

That is more or less the current order until their game. So 6 games away unless anyone else drops out.

[Razamith]

So how did you arrive at the conclusion that the roles were hand picked?
So are you suggesting then that Celtic, myself and Lelly would receive preferential treatment?
It seems like your trying to divert attention from yourself to Celtic and Lelly, as let's face it they're as much under fire as you are. You say "I'm not gonna rely on this" Very next words... " Certainly keep it in mind"
I feel you named me because you thought I wouldn't respond if my name was at the top of the list and I would stay quiet. Hey I'm happy to respond because I'm not the SK.

I'm under fire? I dont think i am and my posts and actions speak for themselves, but am not worried with nothing to hide. Regardless:

You wonder how i arrived. Look at the dead list and roles. Danner (the analyst, prominently "L" in uggor's game) playing the cop. Robo the heckler (lol). Lysah (who was bound to be visited early & often) the loudmouth. Catta the (or "a") godfather mastermind. Decagon quoted from BF in in signup thread "<3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 you know how much I love you" a mason. The list of roled people (in what appears as a role-light game) seems to be more tilted to veterans and list of VTs more toward "the masses". I'm saying BF may have hand-picked some or all the roles (not that there's anything wrong with it) and SK would be an important one (that i'd be surprised if its anyone on the unlikely list, maybe pala the exception). I gave my speculation on that (as stated) as a possible theory, one that i will not BASE my vote on, but could be considered (lightly) in the whole. That's how you have to take 'evidence' (term used loosely here) when there's no information roles.

I have you as lean town (in terms of mafia). I dont have a separate analysis for SK besides ongoing keeping it in mind (and my above post). The SK could easily be looking town scum hunting or vocal, or more traditionally quiet and sheepy (or just 'posts' and not 'content'). [again, all assuming its SK and only one] Since i see your base scum thoughts in #781 if you had to speculate who would you look at specifically for SK?

[Deleted]

@ Raza

I see what your saying, and I did look back at the list before making my post. I seen Graeham in the doc/nurse role that pretty much screamed random to me, plus I always thought Blood wouldn't give a shit about who gets what, regardless. In other games of his the set -up has always felt random. People your picking out now playing different roles for example.

However you asked for my SK thoughts.

I made an SK post earlier in the game, can't find it now it's 3.30am. My first suspect is Satsubl. In truth he only became a suspect when I felt he couldn't be Mafia. I never rule anything out completely though. I think the only reason he isn't dead is because of his low post count. My second suspect was Crack simply because of the Reti/Catta exchanges.

In truth in all my games I never look for the SK, I always try find scum and in doing so I always stumble across the SK. In one of my last games with Uggor I got him lynched because I thought he was mafia but he wasn't he was the SK. Same with Hookie in the last Agatha Christie game I thought he was on Lysah's mafia team but he was the SK.

Sorry for taking so long to respond keep nodding off its 4am and I still have not finished my last post that I want to post, which I may now leave till I wake up.

[Razamith]

Sorry for taking so long to respond keep nodding off its 4am and I still have not finished my last post that I want to post, which I may now leave till I wake up.

Unacceptable! Too many other conversations going on its too hard to follow. .... -.-

Do we really think we picked Satsu SK as only other legit D1 train out of 30? Dont we normally save that for cop or doc? :P I guess its statistically irrelevant/likely like 00 on roulette.

[Dendrek]

The SK:

Unless the SK is one of the Agatha Christie detectives who, for some reason, didn't appear as a mafia member, I think the SK is going to be thematically related to the Kegley's in some significant way. It would be weird if he's not "obvious" in some way based on his RP. He could be someone who had a grudge against the Kegleys, he could be someone who was close to Handleson, or he could be the "real" killer of the Kegley family who Handleson was framed as being (from the RP, Handleson is pegged as the prime suspect, but he's never actually proven guilty, so there's a slight possibility he actually wasn't guilty).

Satsu's character claim fits very weakly into the first of these three theories: we can't actually be sure he was close to his brother. As I said, this is a very weak suspicion and not really one I want to pursue right now. It's so weak that I think it's pretty unlikely. This is only something that should be explored if Satsu is still alive near the end of the game and the SK hasn't been found.

---------------

Kel:

Since Kel is dead, I'll go ahead and say why he was only a rank of (4) for me on the scum-o-meter: Decagon defended him semi-aggressively D1. After Decagon's flip, I suspected it was possible Deca was defending a fellow mason. Without Deca's defense, Kel would have been a rank (6) for me. I didn't want to mention this theory while Kel was alive in order to avoid him using it to set up a fake claim.

---------------

Oops:

So I just realized my vote record from yesterday was wrong. Monkz wasn't actually majority lynched! *offers self up as today's lynch for that horrible mistake*

For those curious, Raza voted and unvoted in the same post and I missed the unvote. Perhaps I'll get lucky and Blood will modkill me so I don't have to waste a lynch.

[Anakso]

But it's a secret unless Ana wants to spoil it!

It's not really a secret we said in the discussion thread already xD It's Highschool Kdramas. the ???s in the list are because we weren't sure of the shows exactly when I put it there, but School 2015, Sassy Go Go, Angry Mom and The Heirs are all definitely in, School 2013 if one or both of us can watch it before we have to make our game and I think maybe Reply 1997 I forgot if we're doing that one. Could be another I'm forgetting, Pistols seen all of them bar School 2013 which is why that might not be included, I've only seen the first two so far and am in the middle of Angry Mom currently, then the Heirs. Oh also I think Boys Over Flowers will be included as well.

Anyway on topic with the votes on me, the reasoning so far is "gut feel" and "I can go with pressuring him" neither of which I can really argue against because there is no argument there.

[Dendrek]

Anyway on topic with the votes on me, the reasoning so far is "gut feel" and "I can go with pressuring him" neither of which I can really argue against because there is no argument there.

My reason is that you aren't actually contributing in a constructive way, outside of the pressure you've put on Lelly. And I think that's significantly more meaningful than "gut feel".

Your meaningful contribution so far:

D1: You're ok with a lurker lynch. Satsu (until he showed up), Lysah (until she showed up), Largehorn (except that he's reliable), Atethecat (especially since he seems to be intentionally ignoring the PM he got). You voted Atethecat. Your Day 1 is fine. I have no complaints here. In fact, if you had maintained this level of activity and input, my scum read on you would be much less than it is.

D2: You find it strange Large hasn't shown up (this comment comes early in the game day). You're ok with pressuring Kurenai or Bomber, but want to wait until Kurenai responds (this comment comes when Kurenai's at 6 and Bomber's at 3). You vote Kurenai (after Bomber's claim). Your Day 2 is very lacking. You comment on almost nothing substantial and you hop onto the back end of the Kurenai train. A lot happened that day and you comment and interact with almost none of it. At best, your actions this day can be described as unengaged and sheepy.

D3: You vote Bomber after he's obviously caught in a lie (you're 5th on the train) and you tell him his lie is inexcusable. Since there wasn't much hope to get anything useful out of Day 3, I give you a pass on this day.

D4: You vote Dranx (you're 9th on his train, needlessly pushing him to L-1 with plenty of time left in the day and forcing me to unvote to avoid an early hammer). Then you pointed out you had more posts than Xanjori, who had just FoSed you, and you FoSed Xanjori and Max (though it didn't seem like you meant the Max FoS). This day is when my scum vibes on you really soared. At best you were useless; at worse, your vote looked like it was done intentionally to stifle further discussion by setting Dranx up for an easy hammer.

D5: You called Lelly out for her bad play, saying voting Monkz early in the day was a mistake. You then vote on her based on what you call a slip and based on her poor defense (you're 4th on her train, following Crackle's unvote). You further scrutinize her for her bad defense, after which you vote Monkz following his claim (you're 6th on his train). You passively argue against allowing the day to continue on, implying there's nothing left to discuss following Monkz's claim. Then you point out it's possible Monkz claimed to save Lelly. Your Day 5 is mostly good. It's the first time since Day 1 that I got the feeling you were even paying attention to the game. I disagree with you heavily on trying to push the day to a close early - yes, little discussion was going on, but there was still *some* discussion going on, including what you participated in. It's as short sighted to end a day early as it is to start a day voting on a no-show. So if Lelly was guilty of a bad play at the start of the day, you were at least partially guilty of a similarly bad play at the end.

D6: You started the day off with a Lelly vote, then claimed people who find you suspicious have no reason for it.

So far: You have done almost no scum hunting. Even your FoSs against Xanjori and Max were just in retaliation for Xanjori FoSing you. Your only stated scum read so far is Lelly. I'm fine with your FoS of Lelly. The reasoning behind it is reasonable. But outside of that you have been useless, possibly even trying to subtly sabotage town. And you've been lurking. I am almost certain of this. You've had opportunities to provide input but are choosing not to. If you want anyone to not read you as scummy, do something besides "no one has a valid read on me and Lelly = super scummy".

[Anakso]

D2: You find it strange Large hasn't shown up (this comment comes early in the game day). You're ok with pressuring Kurenai or Bomber, but want to wait until Kurenai responds (this comment comes when Kurenai's at 6 and Bomber's at 3). You vote Kurenai (after Bomber's claim). Your Day 2 is very lacking. You comment on almost nothing substantial and you hop onto the back end of the Kurenai train. A lot happened that day and you comment and interact with almost none of it. At best, your actions this day can be described as unengaged and sheepy.

Hadn't shown up including all of day 1, and it was 8.5 hours into day 2 and he still hadn't shown up so that was strange. The reason I hopped on the back of the Kurenai train was because I was waiting for him to speak up (he already had enough pressure to say something) then Bomber claimed cop.

D4: You vote Dranx (you're 9th on his train, needlessly pushing him to L-1 with plenty of time left in the day and forcing me to unvote to avoid an early hammer). Then you pointed out you had more posts than Xanjori, who had just FoSed you, and you FoSed Xanjori and Max (though it didn't seem like you meant the Max FoS). This day is when my scum vibes on you really soared. At best you were useless; at worse, your vote looked like it was done intentionally to stifle further discussion by setting Dranx up for an easy hammer.

I was just throwing my vote on the train that was obviously going to happen, not intentionally to end day I didn't even count the votes. If I was scum I'd have probably been more careful with that, like you were. You didn't need to unvote you just did, my guess is to make you seem more town. My point to Xan was that he was being fairly hypocritical.

D5: You called Lelly out for her bad play, saying voting Monkz early in the day was a mistake. You then vote on her based on what you call a slip and based on her poor defense (you're 4th on her train, following Crackle's unvote). You further scrutinize her for her bad defense, after which you vote Monkz following his claim (you're 6th on his train). You passively argue against allowing the day to continue on, implying there's nothing left to discuss following Monkz's claim. Then you point out it's possible Monkz claimed to save Lelly. Your Day 5 is mostly good. It's the first time since Day 1 that I got the feeling you were even paying attention to the game. I disagree with you heavily on trying to push the day to a close early - yes, little discussion was going on, but there was still *some* discussion going on, including what you participated in. It's as short sighted to end a day early as it is to start a day voting on a no-show. So if Lelly was guilty of a bad play at the start of the day, you were at least partially guilty of a similarly bad play at the end.

I was not passively arguing against allowing the day to continue I was questioning you on what you meant.

D6: You started the day off with a Lelly vote, then claimed people who find you suspicious have no reason for it.

My claim was that you voted with no reason, when you voted all you said was "gut feel" and the following vote was "for pressure" not something I can argue against or explain like this post.

[SatsuBL]

As for a setup ideas: At the begining of a game I was quite sure there was a vigilante. Mostly because of Largehorn kill. By the end of day 2 I saw him as someone whose aligment I would get most info from and could be someone I might have killed if I was a vigi. There were players who wanted to make a precedent and lynch new player day 1 over Largehorn, while others opposed to that. That could at that time make a division based on Largehorn's flip. I doubted that scum would go for a kill that could provide that info. On day 3 there were only two kills so the easy explanation would be medic save, double stack or vest hit. However two night kills persisted so I would lean that if there was a vigi he only had two shots for entire game, maybe three but last one didn't pass. X shot vigis are not that uncommon. Less likely explanation could be that vigi lost his power to kill after killing two towns.

Other thing I am thinking about is if there is still one mason alive. Two died and they were a couple, but their rolecard says they can talk with their fellow masons. That would mean there should be more than one apart from the rolecard holder.

As for my vote: Yesterday Celtic voted Lelly even if he wanted to go for AFKers all game long, so my idea was that he could already know Lelly is going to flip scum and didn't want to look bad. But with Monkz flipping scum I can see why he made an exception for Monkz, and voted Lelly. I suspected Celtic for most part of the game, I think he will flip scum more likely than anyone else.

vote: Celtic

I can vote Anakso or Maxillian too, I don't want to vote Palawin, Dendrek, Cruelle or Listo. Others remain uncertain for a moment.

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I still do think Lelly is a good lynch target. I just can't help but feel yesterdays play by Monkz was an attempt to save a team-mate. Of course it could not be that at all, but I think it's one of the strongest things we have to go on right now.

I think if Monkz play was some kind of a masterplan, he wouldn't get a rolecard alteration from BF.

[Xanjori]

I think if Monkz play was some kind of a masterplan, he wouldn't get a rolecard alteration from BF.

I'd like to hope a mod wouldn't be petty enough to do anything that could give players clues or leads in a game, however you may be right, or the alteration could just be because Monkz signed up and then hasn't really played.

[Deleted]

I voted lelly because everyone is basically ignoring my afkers hunt and I'm done trying to cha he things

[Dendrek]

[stuff]

You didn't actually respond to my criticisms at all. You just justified your actions.

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Also, you suggesting I may be scum is laughable. If you're going to throw suspicion at me, at least try to not be lazy about it.

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Dranx (7) - Dupti(546), Palawin(551), Crackle(556), Cruelle(562), Xanjori(596), Razamith(603), Dendrek(606)
Lelly (2) - Reti(567), Listo(592)
Xanjori (1) - Tumppu(583)
Monkz (1) - Celtic(598)

Day deadline:

With 19 players alive it takes 10 to lynch

Vote Dranx

Sheeeep!

Depression sucks. I've never lost a job before and its hit me alot harder than i expected it to considering how much I hated it.

Honestly Dranx hasn't done enough to defend himself so I'll tack my vote onto the pressure. If the vote is accurate this is L-2

vote: Dranx

Haven't posted in a bit been busy, and off out soon for Australia day stuff but be back properly for tomorrow.

These are posts 606 (mine), 614 (Arialla's) and 616 (yours). Notice how I post a vote count and Arialla, after he votes, states it's L-2. You did not need to have done a vote count to know you were pushing Dranx to L-1. You only needed to have been paying attention even a little bit. So you saying "I didn't count the votes" is bull, Anakso. Unless your new claim is "I didn't care enough to pay attention" you have no excuse for that vote.

[Anakso]

You didn't actually respond to my criticisms at all. You just justified your actions.

Justifying my actions was responding to your criticism.

These are posts 606 (mine), 614 (Arialla's) and 616 (yours). Notice how I post a vote count and Arialla, after he votes, states it's L-2. You did not need to have done a vote count to know you were pushing Dranx to L-1. You only needed to have been paying attention even a little bit. So you saying "I didn't count the votes" is bull, Anakso. Unless your new claim is "I didn't care enough to pay attention" you have no excuse for that vote.

Well duh, I skim read to catch up so didn't see that shit just saw Dranx was being voted on, saw the reasoning and agreed with it so threw my vote on.

[Dendrek]

Try rereading then because no it wasn't.

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In case it's not clear, and it seems painfully evident it's not clear: I only posted your significant actions to make it clear I haven't ignored anything important you've done this game and to make it exceptionally obvious that you've done almost nothing important this game. I didn't post those so you could explain them. Other than your Dranx vote, most of that didn't really need explanation. I want more from you than a crappy defense.

[Anakso]

I'll admit I haven't been as active this game as I normally am, but I can't exactly defend that it's just factual. I'm here, I'm posting, I've got my vote where I want it. What more do you want exactly?

[Dendrek]

... brb killing myself.

Scum hunt. Give me something more than just Lelly. Give me a reason to think you care if Town actually wins.

[Anakso]

I can't just suddenly scum hunt on command, especially when it's only us two posting and I'd rather keep my vote on Lelly at this point as she is the most likely to be scum.

[Deleted]

The SK:

Unless the SK is one of the Agatha Christie detectives who, for some reason, didn't appear as a mafia member, I think the SK is going to be thematically related to the Kegley's in some significant way.

This was something I considered too, I am very surprised Satsubl is alive, if mafia are looking for SK he most certainly would have been the first person I'd kill. Maybe his low posting is actually keeping him alive. This is what I left out of my response to Raza which I meant to put in but it was 4am and I was pretty much asleep.

I also just realized I didn't vote and I have no idea why I didn't. I see the Anakso votes but I am still uncertain on Anakso, I'd rather pressure Arialla than Anakso, Anakso is at least here and voting but having said that I'd always planned to look at Lelly, Celtic and Raza today anyway as I felt we had one scum left from the Kurenai train.

Celtic- If I vote Celtic and he is scum, then I would probably consider the Celtic /Lelly vote a bus which means Raza drops off as all 3 of them couldn't possibly be scum.
Raza- His hand picked nonsense that I think he made up to cast suspicion on Lelly and Celtic, shows me how far he is willing to go to get everyone not to look at him. Maybe he is right maybe Blood Fox did hand pick all or some of the roles. While I get scummy vibes from Raza, I have to consider my mantra of trusting no one is making myself second guess him. You know me I never like to rule anything out.
Lelly- My problem here is not only the way Lelly has played but Reti's vote. Reti put his vote out and I felt pretty sure he was making a play to see who would follow. which Listo did. If Lelly flips scum I think that brings Listo into play. However what if Reti wasn't making a play, what if he had recognized something and acted on it. I usually would know straight away which is which from Reti by his post content but not this time he posted lightly this game. Even though I tend to think he was making a play to see who would respond, this is why I have been hesitant to vote Lelly.


I think out of the three I have to go with Celtic but am also very happy to vote Arialla.

vote Celtic

How much time do we have left?

[Dendrek]

Celtic (2) - Satsu(809), Cruelle(818)
Anakso (2) - Dendrek(788), Razamith(789)
Lelly (1) - Anakso(786)
Arialla (1) - Celtic(783)



With 13 left, it takes 7 to lynch

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If someone gets lynched with less than 4 votes I'm going to laugh. At this point I think Celtic, Anakso and Arialla should all consider themselves today's likely lynch since votes can switch to any one of them very easily. You guys might want to consider claiming, posting suspicion lists, or something.

[Razamith]

We have a bit over 12 hours left. And i know we have to be very careful with how much mislynch room we have but not voting is making scum votes count for more / able to swing things easier...

His hand picked nonsense that I think he made up to cast suspicion on Lelly and Celtic

Your entitled to opinion but think you're conflating how much stock i'm putting into it. Dunno why you wouldn't be included in that "cast suspicion" (in scum raz world) but even so, i'm a lot less convinced on lelly and celtic than others (they're not in my top list currently). Some of this i've said before but:
- Lelly: To be scum (either mafia or SK) i have to buy A) she started the kuri train prominently with quite questionable reasoning (which i called out on the time, but had different reasons to vote myself) and B) she opened yesterday with easily arguably anti-town vote on AFK (something celtic pushed on D4) that turned out to be scum. Two pretty high profile actions. Now the counters to them are A) it could have been a distraction/jumpstart vote or wouldn't realize it would take off and be high profile (and ended up being mislynch) and B) it could have either been a play coordinated with monkz or just sacrifice for cred type thing (or thought it'd be popular opinion). Both counters are plausible too, so do we have a high profile scum (that's not playing her standard game) or a scapegoat that keeps being pointed at?
- Celtic: To be scum (mafia specifically) I have to reconcile the monkz afk vote. He has pushed an anti-lurking agenda all game, from D1. Some of the called out are known scum (though many known town) but the biggest callout being monkz D4 when he was only "in everyone's mind" which became a big issue D5 (on multiple fronts). If that was voting for cred he had a lot of lurkers to choose from but choose to draw attention to him. It is quite possible his earlier lurker choices were an agenda and he's looking to save face for endgame, but i'm having a hard time fully buying. I had lots of interest in celtic early game, and his content is not great, but situationally i cant have him on my top list for mafia currently, nor am anywhere near clearing him. As for SK its fully possible with the number of votes out there of "get rid of anyone and dont look at me" type thing. (if he comes up scum its self-serving for me with my early questioning and train probabilities, but is risky vs possible mislynch based on read [unless sk])

On unrelated notes, i'm backing off of Max a little. His kel vote D2 could be unusual but was carryover from D1, and has stated a number of times kel snarky remarks. Combined with his questioning of "why not kel too!?" from the FOS list, this seems to go beyond reasonable bussing and more overfocusing on a hunch (yet right). My top choices currently for mafia scum are Anakso, Tumppu/Xanjori, and beginning to look more at Arialla being more anti-town. Celtic and Lelly are possible but second tier - may still have Max there too, and borderline Cruelle. Listo is getting a lot of trust this game (for not being tremendously helpful) and i have my own reason why too but its weak and i'm not giving him a full pass, but dont have on top 2 tiers. [Note: SK analysis is different altogether]