Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

Trump would have to win them all and even steal one of the other blue states in order to take this election.

Trump is low on both time and resources. Biden has people helping him out, such as Obama. Trump has far fewer, and most notably, nobody who isn't currently working for him.

And the third debate won't be a ton of help. He'll either have to give up his only strategy and try to defend his record on the merits, or watch the Committee finally say "look, we warned you" and actually mute his mic/cut his camera.

[Zaydin]

Assuming it goes down to the proper wire, this is the least Biden needs to win.

That's not the consensus map I'm looking at. Their consensus map currently puts Biden at 290 electoral votes; main difference in your map there is that they give Biden Arizona and one of Nebraskas electoral votes. That still leaves several toss up states, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa plus Maines 2nd District.

RCP has, in North Carolina, Biden leading in every recent poll save for one, albeit by slim margins, with his aggregate lead being 2.7 there. Trump won NC by 3.7 points in 2016.

In Florida, Biden has led in recent every poll except for three, one of which was a tie with Trump. His aggregate lead in Florida is 1.4; Trump won the state by 1.2 percent in 2016. Further hurting Trump is that he is hemorrhaging support among seniors. Turns out demanding that they die for the stock market isn't a winning strategy.

In Arizona, Biden has led in every poll save for one and that outlier was a Trafalgar Group poll, and they are bad pollsters, with an aggregate lead of 3.9 points. Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016.

In Iowa, Biden has led in all but three recent polls; of the other three, two were ties between him and Trump and the third had Trump up by 3; Trumps aggregate lead in Iowa is 1.2 points. Trump won Iowa by 9.5% in 2016.

In Georgia, Biden has an aggregate lead of 1.2. Out of five recent polls, Biden led in three of them and Trump lead in 2. Trump won Georgia by 5.1 points in 2016.

The only battleground state Trump currently leads in is Ohio, with an aggregate lead of just 0.5%. Of recent polls, he lead by 4 in one poll, tied in one and Biden lead by 1 in two. Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points in 2016.

Trump is hemorrhaging support everywhere.

In Real Clear Politics 'no toss ups' map, giving them all to Biden produces 357 electoral votes to 181 for Trump. Now of course that's no guarantee and the odds of Biden winning every 'toss up' state are slim, especially Georgia and how desperate the GOP will be to keep it in their column. Expect a lot of foul play by the GOP there.

[Benggaul]

44,941 new cases, about 3k more than last Sunday. However, as was the case yesterday, Wisconsin hasn't reported due to a system update. Given their data over the past week and their numbers for the past few Sundays I'm confident in assigning them 2.5k cases today as a conservative estimate. That puts the real total at around 5.5k more than last Sunday. Mississippi also did not report but given their usual Sunday numbers it probably wouldn't add more than 500 cases or so.

Illinois: 4,245 new cases; 22 deaths
Tennessee: 2,605 new cases; 6 deaths
Texas: 2,577 new cases; 28 deaths
Fuck Florida.
North Carolina: 2,303 new cases; 5 deaths
California: 1,806 new cases; 36 deaths
Minnesota: 1,722 new cases; 17 deaths
Indiana: 1,605 new cases; 19 deaths
Ohio: 1,549 new cases; no deaths reported
New York: 1,453 new cases; 11 deaths
Missouri: 1,253 new cases; 61 deaths
Georgia: 1,174 new cases; 31 deaths
Louisiana: 1,143 new cases; 23 deaths
New Jersey: 1,124 new cases; 4 deaths
Pennsylvania: 1,102 new cases; 20 deaths
Utah: 1,097 new cases; 3 deaths

This one will be a short update since it's a Sunday and there's not much new to say. No new records from what I've seen (I didn't go searching too far out of the 1k+ states, though) and I did not think there would be today or tomorrow given that they are the weekend totals. It may be a record Sunday for several states but I'm not looking that deeply into the data. Tuesday through Friday/Saturday usually paints a better picture on where things stand. The Wisconsin system update continues on into tomorrow so I'm not sure when or how that data will be reported; whether it'll be dumped as a lump sum when the system is back up or if it will be retroactively added to the days the system was down. I'll keep an eye on it. Expect to see a few more states hitting the 1k+ level this week. New Jersey looks like it'll be up there more often alongside New York.

449 deaths today, over 100 more than last week. The total is now 224,730 and I expect we'll be seeing 225k tomorrow.

Related news:

Fauci's not surprised Trump got COVID-19. Neither are we.
New York healthcare workers will get priority for the eventual vaccine. After the hell they went through in March/April, let's hope they're getting one that's been properly tested.
A 14-year old in Texas may have discovered a potential treatment for COVID-19. A fucking 14-year old has done more to help against COVID-19 than Trump has.

Stay safe, folks.

[Kaleredar]

Panicked and desperate, Trump calls Biden's family corrupt and criminal and leads a chant of "lock him up".

Forgeting, of course, that the family facing criminal charges is his.

Hopefully this pivot comes way too late and way too little.

It might have gained them some success with Hillary, but she'd been the victim of a 20 year smear campaign lead by the republican party, in addition to Trump's incessant belching of his hackneyed soundbites.

Moreover, I really doubt it'll do anything to actually dissuade people from voting for Biden. The only real danger is in motivating his otherwise disaffected base to go out and vote.


...or do other things.

- - - Updated - - -

That's not the consensus map I'm looking at. Their consensus map currently puts Biden at 290 electoral votes; main difference in your map there is that they give Biden Arizona and one of Nebraskas electoral votes. That still leaves several toss up states, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa plus Maines 2nd District.

RCP has, in North Carolina, Biden leading in every recent poll save for one, albeit by slim margins, with his aggregate lead being 2.7 there. Trump won NC by 3.7 points in 2016.

In Florida, Biden has led in recent every poll except for three, one of which was a tie with Trump. His aggregate lead in Florida is 1.4; Trump won the state by 1.2 percent in 2016. Further hurting Trump is that he is hemorrhaging support among seniors. Turns out demanding that they die for the stock market isn't a winning strategy.

In Arizona, Biden has led in every poll save for one and that outlier was a Trafalgar Group poll, and they are bad pollsters, with an aggregate lead of 3.9 points. Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016.

In Iowa, Biden has lead in all but three recent polls; of the other three, two were ties between him and Trump and the third had Trump up by 3; Trumps aggregate lead in Iowa is 1.2 points. Trump won Iowa by 9.5% in 2016.

In Georgia, Biden has an aggregate lead of 1.2. Out of five recent polls, Biden led in three of them and Trump lead in 2. Trump won Georgia by 5.1 points in 2016.

The only battleground state Trump currently leads in is Ohio, with an aggregate lead of just 0.5%. Of recent polls, he lead by 4 in one poll, tied in one and Biden lead by 1 in two. Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points in 2016.

Trump is hemorrhaging support everywhere.

In Real Clear Politics 'no toss ups' map, giving them all to Biden produces 357 electoral votes to 181 for Trump. Now of course that's no guarantee and the odds of Biden winning every 'toss up' state are slim, especially Georgia and how desperate the GOP will be to keep it in their column. Expect a lot of foul play by the GOP there.

What has me still on edge the most is how Hillary appeared to be set up to win the Electoral College vote as well, but ended up losing it somewhat unexpectedly.

I guess the greatest hope is that the democrats are much more aware that these states they thought were sure things in 2016 perhaps aren't, and do seem to have been spending a great deal of time and money in trying to pull these states back into the fold.

I'm also not convinced by any maps that paint Texas and Florida as truly being "up for grabs." As I've said before I'm not enough of an optimist to think Texas would go blue for Biden, nor do I really ever expect Florida to do anything but the wrong thing in the long run. I think it's unfortunately more likely than not to chalk those both up to Trump states.

[YaunyPink]

The result will be announced soon.

[Zaydin]

Hopefully this pivot comes way too late and way too little.

It might have gained them some success with Hillary, but she'd been the victim of a 20 year smear campaign lead by the republican party, in addition to Trump's incessant belching of his hackneyed soundbites.

Moreover, I really doubt it'll do anything to actually dissuade people from voting for Biden. The only real danger is in motivating his otherwise disaffected base to go out and vote.


...or do other things.

- - - Updated - - -



What has me still on edge the most is how Hillary appeared to be set up to win the Electoral College vote as well, but ended up losing it somewhat unexpectedly.

I guess the greatest hope is that the democrats are much more aware that these states they thought were sure things in 2016 perhaps aren't, and do seem to have been spending a great deal of time and money in trying to pull these states back into the fold.

I'm also not convinced by any maps that paint Texas and Florida as truly being "up for grabs." As I've said before I'm not enough of an optimist to think Texas would go blue for Biden, nor do I really ever expect Florida to do anything but the wrong thing in the long run. I think it's unfortunately more likely than not to chalk those both up to Trump states.

Even if there is a polling error this year equal to 2016, Trump would still lose.

[Shadowferal]

It would be fantastic - and I agree, he won't see actual jail time, but rather house arrest - and that would be about the same as jail for him. Never leaving. Never traveling.

Better...for security reasons he might be denied the internet.

[Resurgo]

...
I guess the greatest hope is that the democrats are much more aware that these states they thought were sure things in 2016 perhaps aren't, and do seem to have been spending a great deal of time and money in trying to pull these states back into the fold.

I'm also not convinced by any maps that paint Texas and Florida as truly being "up for grabs." As I've said before I'm not enough of an optimist to think Texas would go blue for Biden, nor do I really ever expect Florida to do anything but the wrong thing in the long run. I think it's unfortunately more likely than not to chalk those both up to Trump states.

Like you, I wouldn't think so either, however the threat of doing so would be for the GOP to keep up the efforts and $$ in those states (like Texas and Florida) which may pull away from the attention of the other states...

[Kaleredar]

Like you, I wouldn't think so either, however the threat of doing so would be for the GOP to keep up the efforts and $$ in those states (like Texas and Florida) which may pull away from the attention of the other states...

Oh I certainly agree; grill them where it hurts. Make them spend money they don't have. It'll also hopefully be useful in flipping seats in Florida and Texas.

But like I said. I'd squarely chalk those up both as Trump states. The number of bozos I see in Florida with their trucks decked out in American flags with "TRUMP/PENCE 2020" scrawled on the back windshield is too high to give me all that much hope as far as Florida is concerned.

[cubby]

So he'll have to endure what his failure at leadership during COVID-19 has done and will again do to the population of the country? I see nothing wrong with this.

That's my thought as well. While jail would be where he truly deserves to be, it's not a practical solution given his [hopefully] previous [stolen] status as Resident (although I have some ideas about that if Trump continually breaks his house arrest sentencing). So house arrest is the most pragmatic solution. Can you imagine him stuck in [name any of his U.S. based properties] and never being able to leave. Never being able to have visitors. Never being able to golf. Stuck in an empty mausoleum without only his mind to keep him company?

[PhaelixWW]

And the third debate won't be a ton of help. He'll either have to give up his only strategy and try to defend his record on the merits, or watch the Committee finally say "look, we warned you" and actually mute his mic/cut his camera.

Oh, I pray that they mute him but don't cut his camera. I'd love for everyone watching to see the impotent bluster of the blowhard-in-Chief one one half of the screen, while watching a calm Biden answer the question on the other half.

[cubby]

Better...for security reasons he might be denied the internet.

Yes - good point. I'm not sure if that's a routine measure taken with house arrest convicts, but it would be a nice touch.

[Zaydin]

Oh I certainly agree; grill them where it hurts. Make them spend money they don't have. It'll also hopefully be useful in flipping seats in Florida and Texas.

But like I said. I'd squarely chalk those up both as Trump states. The number of bozos I see in Florida with their trucks decked out in American flags with "TRUMP/PENCE 2020" scrawled on the back windshield is too high to give me all that much hope as far as Florida is concerned.

Just because you see them doesn't mean they are the majority.

Trump supporters have an almost psychotic need that I will never understand to make sure everyone else knows that they are Trump supporters.

[Antiganon]

Better...for security reasons he might be denied the internet.

Oh no, let him tweet, when he's no longer President Twitter can just ban him for all the shit he says that anyone else on the planet would be banned for.

[Katchii]

Oh, I pray that they mute him but don't cut his camera. I'd love for everyone watching to see the impotent bluster of the blowhard-in-Chief one one half of the screen, while watching a calm Biden answer the question on the other half.

While that would be lovely to see, just because the viewers wouldn't be able to hear him (I suspect they could, through Biden's or the hosts mic) Biden would absolutely still be able to hear him and wouldn't be able to answer calmly "without interruption" because Trump could still very well talk over him.

Unless it's set-up where they're separated and they can't hear each other except through the mics, Trumps normal "just talk louder" tactic will still be as annoyingly effective at ratfucking the debate as it's always been.

[pathora44]

Oh I certainly agree; grill them where it hurts. Make them spend money they don't have. It'll also hopefully be useful in flipping seats in Florida and Texas.

But like I said. I'd squarely chalk those up both as Trump states. The number of bozos I see in Florida with their trucks decked out in American flags with "TRUMP/PENCE 2020" scrawled on the back windshield is too high to give me all that much hope as far as Florida is concerned.

Ya I live in Idaho and I see so many people with a giant American flag on one side of the truck and a giant Trump/Pence flag on the other.

[Masark]

Oh, I pray that they mute him but don't cut his camera. I'd love for everyone watching to see the impotent bluster of the blowhard-in-Chief one one half of the screen, while watching a calm Biden answer the question on the other half.

I personally doubt that would work. He would probably just start yelling loud enough to be heard through Biden's microphone.

[Elegiac]

I personally doubt that would work. He would probably just start yelling loud enough to be heard through Biden's microphone.

Got some real "Boomers conducting a phone call over speakerphone in public" energy, so that tracks.

[Thepersona]

It’s this kinda stuff that worries me. Where these allegations and conspiracies against Biden will trick vulnerable voters, and I hate that it’s so easy to do that. Dems need to take down the Trump kids.

Those people would never vote for Biden to begin with.

[cubby]

Oh, I pray that they mute him but don't cut his camera. I'd love for everyone watching to see the impotent bluster of the blowhard-in-Chief one one half of the screen, while watching a calm Biden answer the question on the other half.

I really hope we see that a lot on this last debate. A foreshadowing of what's to come.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh no, let him tweet, when he's no longer President Twitter can just ban him for all the shit he says that anyone else on the planet would be banned for.

I actually disagree with this - I think shutting off all his social media accounts post-conviction is the exact right thing to do.

- - - Updated - - -

Ya I live in Idaho and I see so many people with a giant American flag on one side of the truck and a giant Trump/Pence flag on the other.

Which, ironically, is an improper display of the flag, according to regulations.