The Brexit aftermath thread

[Lollis]

Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018

55 Single United Kingdom customs territory

(1)It shall be unlawful for Her Majesty’s Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain.

(2)For the purposes of this section “customs territory” shall have the same meaning as in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 as amended.

Would require a parliamentary majority to overturn this law. The Conservatives don't have that majority. So even if what dribbles says was completely true, its obsolete anyway.

[caervek]

Great Britain and NI will be in a UK wide customs union and the UK will leave the EU. NI will maintain regulatory alignment with the EU and have access to the EU single market thereby removing the requirement of a hard border between NI and the South.

Problem with that idea is that it treats NI different to the rest of the UK so breaks a DUP red line.

Which means his idea is unworkable and in addition would turn Boris' working majority of -43 into a working majority of -53 xD

[Forogil]

Would require a parliamentary majority to overturn this law. The Conservatives don't have that majority. So even if what dribbles says was completely true, its obsolete anyway.

It seemed the goal was to go around this by saying that NI isn't part of a different "customs territory" - but just part of "EU custom rules" that regulate commerce.

That seems to make sense until you look up the definitions:

GATT 1947 define "custom territory" as "territory with respect to which separate tariffs or other regulations of commerce are maintained for a substantial part of the trade of such territory with other territories".

[Kallisto]

Not brexit related but

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50077384

Another MP leaves labour because Anti Semetism in the party and Corbyn doing nothing or endorsing it.

[draykorinee]

Not sure in what context I should even regard this. Usually when someone throws the anti-semitism accusation around it is because someone dared being critical of Israel's mistreatment of Palestina.

That's pretty much the case most of the time, it's just used by party members who don't like corbyn et al.

[Huehuecoyotl]

So after yesterday and all the "deal is near" pronouncements, we get confirmation today that the DUP won't be able to support the deal as it stands. That the details coming out don't match what Boris was telling different groups yesterday.

The simple fact is, there is no deal that the DUP and ERG would agree with that would get support from the ex Tories and the opposition parties as well. It doesn't exist, regardless of how clever the people trying to sort it out think they are. But as long as details were withheld, and Boris gave briefings that told the different groups whatever they wanted to hear, we could carry on with the charade that we were close to a deal that would get through Parliament.

I'm honestly not sure why he's doing this; presumably to waste time with the hope that he can force through no-deal somehow? To look tough to the Brexit Party voters to try and get them onside for the GE coming up? If it is some kind of 4D chess, then the only thing certain is that Boris isn't pulling the strings. He doesn't have the intellect or patience for that, regardless of how much latin he can spout.

Next step will be trying to ensure that the blame for the failure is directed where it belongs; which will be anywhere but Boris. Expect fingers to be pointed in all sorts of directions to muddy the waters.

[Kallisto]

Not sure in what context I should even regard this. Usually when someone throws the anti-semitism accusation around it is because someone dared being critical of Israel's mistreatment of Palestina.

Not really in the cases in regard to the past year or so of Jewish members of Labour leaving. They're being attacked for being Jewish and also Jeremy Corbyn promotion of "The Jews did this." the book. His laying wreaths at terrorist memorials and calling those that kill Jews for fun as friends all add up.

[Slant]

The thing is, with this clear effort to get a deal and with responsiveness from the EU apparent in all media, it becomes much harder to build the narrative that it's all the EU's fault for no deal. And considering it is likely that the deal will fail in parliament from the DUP and perhaps the ERG . . .I don't get the gameplan. It makes Brexit Party voters feel that Johnson is actually committed to trying and get a deal after they've spend many months with the new narrative that No Deal is preferred. At most what it will do is paint Labour as a Remain party to Labour leavers when Labour votes the deal down?

Unless he just plans to go to the meeting today and just not sign off on the deal he has been negotiating, apparently with fervor, entirely for his domestic audience to paint the EU as villains for not giving him a deal he can sell even though "he really tried"? That seems like the only reasonable gameplan.

Well, he could throw the DUP under the bus, too. The EU sounded pretty optimistic yesterday, if it fails now, he can't point to the EU. They're even negotiating although they always said they wouldn't. I think he's gonna blame the Northern Irish. Nobody in England cares what they think anyway.

[draykorinee]

Even the Torygraph has turned on Boris and his Brexit plan. Not that he actually wanted a deal anyways, at least now he can blame everyone else after making a worse deal than May.

[Slant]

Very interesting Twitter thread about the nature of these types of negotiations:

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/...ghtmode%3Dtrue

[Crispin]

Widely reported Crispy, it's not just me making these things up.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/...55609506668544

NI will be the new Monaco eurochums, perhaps a bit wetter...

Still dumb enough to belive it will pass?

[Pann]

This has potential to be interesting; 'CONFIRMED: Labour MPs have been told they are being whipped to back a second referendum on super Saturday' (https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/st...55661965533184)

[dribbles]

Still dumb enough to belive it will pass?

Not looking likely now because of the DUP. Perhaps they are holding out for a few more billion, we'll see.

But a useful lesson was learnt, it shows the EU caved.

The EU were telling porkies when they said they wouldn't re-open the WA, they did. Just shows the strength of the UK negotiating position wouldn't you say?

[draykorinee]

The EU were telling porkies when they said they wouldn't re-open the WA, they did. Just shows the strength of the UK negotiating position wouldn't you say?

I think the failure to negotiate a deal that suits us once again, shows how utterly vacuous and stupid this statement is.

How quickly did Boris and the UK government cave in the negotiatons to get a worse deal each time l.

[Jessicka]

Not looking likely now because of the DUP. Perhaps they are holding out for a few more billion, we'll see.

But a useful lesson was learnt, it shows the EU caved.

The EU were telling porkies when they said they wouldn't re-open the WA, they did. Just shows the strength of the UK negotiating position wouldn't you say?

The EU caved by offering something worse than May's deal, and Boris accepting it?

The logical progression of this is to keep going back, picking up worse and worse deals, then eventually taking no-deal because it's the absolute worst outcome.

[draykorinee]

The EU caved by offering something worse than May's deal, and Boris accepting it?

The logical progression of this is to keep going back, picking up worse and worse deals, then eventually taking no-deal because it's the absolute worst outcome.

I think he thought he had a gotcha moment but it was just a self own.

[dribbles]

The EU caved by offering something worse than May's deal, and Boris accepting it?

The logical progression of this is to keep going back, picking up worse and worse deals, then eventually taking no-deal because it's the absolute worst outcome.

The EU caved by accepting NI will remain in the UK customs area, not in the original WA.
The EU caved by allowing NI a periodic vote to leave the new agreed arrangement rather than being trapped prisoner forever as in the original WA.

The UK held all the cards, the EU caved on the original WA. I told you so.

A fantastic first step towards a clean brexit for GB and a staged softer one on the same end path for NI.

Those blue passports will be a joy to hold...

[Muzjhath]

The EU caved by accepting NI will remain in the UK customs area, not in the original WA.
The EU caved by allowing NI a periodic vote to leave the new agreed arrangement rather than being trapped prisoner forever as in the original WA.

The UK held all the cards, the EU caved on the original WA. I told you so.

A fantastic first step towards a clean brexit for GB and a staged softer one on the same end path for NI.

Those blue passports will be a joy to hold...

Except for the border in the Irish sea.

[Gorsameth]

What are the odds there are enough MP's in the opposition willing to fuck over NI that Johnson might get a majority for this deal without the DUP?

[Mayhem]

What are the odds there are enough MP's in the opposition willing to fuck over NI that Johnson might get a majority for this deal without the DUP?

Considering past votes? I'd say about one in a brexillion.