The Brexit aftermath thread

[Dizzeeyooo]

no-one would jeopardise the ability to sign new trade deals before we have left.

yep all those huge international trade deals that can be negotiated from nothing to completion in 18 months

all those deals that can now be signed before we leave, but do not come into effect until we leave, as opposed to signing the same pre-arranged deals (that will not exist) immediately after we leave

really huge win for the UK there

[Pann]

yep all those huge international trade deals that can be negotiated from nothing to completion in 18 months

really huge win for the UK there

Whether or not they can be completed within this time scale, which is unlikely, it is a huge win for the UK, in the context of how negotiations have been going.

And I am still waiting for you to grace me with the benefits of you huge intellect and explain what point you were trying to make earlier.

As your edit - membership of the EU means that we cannot enter into trade negotiations with other nations therefore we could not have pre-arranged deals ready for when we leave. There is an argument that the EU would be powerless to stop us from doing so however this would not be conducive to ongoing and future negotiations.

[Deleted]

Uhm, okay? What point are you trying to make?

That the NI-I issue remains as unresolved as before - As someone who understands the substantive nature of the Single market, what has been agreed isn't something that a UK PM could in practice agree too. But in any case, what will please the Irish is something that will assuredly displease the DUP, and the converse - One party will have to give in.
The Irish wont, because for them this isn't an economical question, The EU wont, because they will protect the integrity of the single market, and the DUP won't because it would undermine core priorities.
Where this leaves the UK is up in the air - But it won't be pretty.
And the reason TM agreed to it, is because the writing is sufficiently fudgy to avoid directly telling either party they wont get what they want, and because they still suffer the delusion that there is some potential EU-UK deal that obviates the need for a border, and still keeps the UK out of the single market (there isn't).

[Noradin]

no-one would jeopardise the ability to sign new trade deals before we have left.

What are you talking about.
You do not have the ability to sign new trade deals before you have left.

You might get the ability to negotiate them during the transition, but that is after you have left.

[Pann]

That the NI-I issue remains as unresolved as before - As someone who understands the substantive nature of the Single market, what has been agreed isn't something that a UK PM could in practice agree too. But in any case, what will please the Irish is something that will assuredly displease the DUP, and the converse - One party will have to give in.
The Irish wont, because for them this isn't an economical question, The EU wont, because they will protect the integrity of the single market, and the DUP won't because it would undermine core priorities.
Where this leaves the UK is up in the air - But it won't be pretty.

The island of Ireland will remain unresolved as there is no solution which both the EU and UK recognise therefore they keep kicking the can down the road.

[Deleted]

As your edit - membership of the EU means that we cannot enter into trade negotiations with other nations therefore we could not have pre-arranged deals ready for when we leave. There is an argument that the EU would be powerless to stop us from doing so however this would not be conducive to ongoing and future negotiations.

There is the crucial problem that no one is really going to be interested in engaging in substantive talks until the EU-UK deal is done.

[ranzino]

What are you talking about.
You do not have the ability to sign new trade deals before you have left.

You might get the ability to negotiate them during the transition, but that is after you have left.

you cannot negotiate a trade deal within 376 days anyway, it was always an issue during transition period.

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The island of Ireland will remain unresolved as there is no solution which both the EU and UK recognise therefore they keep kicking the can down the road.

just for info: the can has to be off the road soon, or no transition period. EU has a solution, what is Uk's ?

[Deleted]

The island of Ireland will remain unresolved as there is no solution which both the EU and UK recognise therefore they keep kicking the can down the road.

yeah - But the Irish have one thing on their side, the absolute shitstorm that hits the UK when there is no deal on the 29th of march.
It's the UK that is in the untenable position, and time is running out.

[Pann]

There is the crucial problem that no one is really going to be interested in engaging in substantive talks until the EU-UK deal is done.

Indeed that is a potential issue.

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yeah - But the Irish have one thing on their side, the absolute shitstorm that hits the UK when there is no deal on the 29th of march.
It's the UK that is in the untenable position, and time is running out.

Ireland will be hit just as hard, if not harder, should a no deal arise and this is before the potential re-emergence of sectarian violence.

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just for info: the can has to be off the road soon, or no transition period. EU has a solution, what is Uk's ?

Yes it will, although it would not be surprising for the transitional period to be extended until the unachievable is achieved or everyone gets bored and accepts the transitional period as the status quo. The EU's solution, a border between NI and the UK is just as unworkable as a RoI/NI border.

[ranzino]

Yes it will, although it would not be surprising for the transitional period to be extended until the unachievable is achieved or everyone gets bored and accepts the transitional period as the status quo. The EU's solution, a border between NI and the UK is just as unworkable as a RoI/NI border.

nope, the 29th march is a deadline on itself; UK is crashing out then and transition period does not even start. to reach transition stance UK will have to give in, just like that.

[Pann]

This is BRILLIANT!!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...est-fishermen/

You really could not make this shit up!

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nope, the 29th march is a deadline on itself; UK is crashing out then and transition period does not even start. to reach transition stance UK will have to give in, just like that.

What benefit is there to the EU from the UK crashing out, as you put it? The transitional period means the UK continues to meet EU financial obligations but has no say in how it is run and it also means that neither side really has to address the Ireland issue so why would the EU be against extending if necessary?

[ranzino]

What benefit is there to the EU from the UK crashing out, as you put it? The transitional period means the UK continues to meet EU financial obligations but has no say in how it is run and it also means that neither side really has to address the Ireland issue so why would the EU be against extending if necessary?

EU will not like it, but will prepare for cold hard Brexit in 375 days. And no, EU will not dance around the irish issue, because unless the 2 years period is changed, UK is out. the hard border erects itself then.

[Noradin]

This is BRILLIANT!!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...est-fishermen/

You really could not make this shit up!

They should write something catchy on the side of that trawler!

[Pann]

EU will not like it, but will prepare for cold hard Brexit in 375 days. And no, EU will not dance around the irish issue, because unless the 2 years period is changed, UK is out. the hard border erects itself then.

Does the RoI get a say in all this?

[ranzino]

Does the RoI get a say in all this?

technically a veto until march 2019, which also prevents the transition period then.
the Brexit deal ratification itself would only require a qualified majority (dont ask me, how much); so RoI's opinion would not count. But EU gave Taoiseach the power to kill Brexit negotiations.

[Dhrizzle]

I prefer Floopa to be honest, ever since the whole "French getaway house" thing was revealed like 200 pages back I've been unable to stop my sides splitting over every post.

But obviously handing the economy over to Rees-Mogg and Johnson whilst removing any safeguards from the EU is the only way Corbyn will get the trains back, that's why we should all fuck off to France until the dust has settled. Socialism!

[Slant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ransition-deal

Aaaaand the agreement is already under fire home in UK. so who briefed Davis what to do and how much to agree, if almost everybody is so surprised about the outcome ?

I keep wondering, what's this perverse fascination with their shitty fisheries? Like seriously... how much of their economy do they get out of the ocean that they mention that shit in literally every second sentence? We get it, you're an island, we still buy salmon from Norway...

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There is the crucial problem that no one is really going to be interested in engaging in substantive talks until the EU-UK deal is done.

A fact I have pointed out before the referendum, yet I was faced with "You'll see! Everyone loves us!"

Does anyone else find it curious how they want to leave so they can negotiate their own trade deals, yet the action of leaving demonstrates how terrible they are at negotiating?

Yes, I'm sure they'll have a lot of people wanting to negotiate with them. Heck, I'd negotiate with them. I'd have to be quite daft to get out of negotiations with less than double what I had before entering it, I reckon...

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Does the RoI get a say in all this?

Yes. The RoI, however, already agreed to this when they signed the treaties. The RoI has the option to take it up in Brussels and have the Treaties changed or add a provision for the RoI. Until then, this is what they democratically want.

It's also their responsibility to the rest of the Union, really. A responsibility I'm sure they're well aware of. As much as I'm sure they're well aware that the rest of the EU backs them all the way in their right to veto anything coming out of London.

[Deleted]

What benefit is there to the EU from the UK crashing out, as you put it? The transitional period means the UK continues to meet EU financial obligations but has no say in how it is run and it also means that neither side really has to address the Ireland issue so why would the EU be against extending if necessary?

Because it preserves maximum leverage - The UK absolutely Needs an orderly exit.
One failing of this plan is that it's not entirely clear the UK is aware of this.

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Ireland will be hit just as hard, if not harder, should a no deal arise and this is before the potential re-emergence of sectarian violence.

The UK exports about 15% of it's GDP to the EU, Ireland Exports 7.5% of it's GDP to the UK, so they would be hit half as hard.
In any case however, this isn't an economical question, the Irish will not tolerate a hard border - For any Irish politician it's going to be way easier to sell economical pain than a border.

[Deleted]

I keep wondering, what's this perverse fascination with their shitty fisheries? Like seriously... how much of their economy do they get out of the ocean that they mention that shit in literally every second sentence? We get it, you're an island, we still buy salmon from Norway...

Less than half a percent of our GDP.

https://publications.parliament.uk/p...ucom/78/78.pdf

See chapter 2.

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I don't get the obsession with doing shit in the Thames is though, we had these 2 morons doing it during the referendum

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ames-flotillas

[Mormolyce]

I keep wondering, what's this perverse fascination with their shitty fisheries? Like seriously... how much of their economy do they get out of the ocean that they mention that shit in literally every second sentence? We get it, you're an island, we still buy salmon from Norway...

You don't want to go up against Big Kipper.

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They should write something catchy on the side of that trawler!

350 million haddock a week, straight to the NHS!