The Brexit aftermath thread

[Pann]

The average long term estimates of the hit to the UK is 8% (or thereabouts) of GDP. However the hit will be largest at the beginning due to all the disruption. So if 8% is the long term average and the hit is largest at the beginning then you are going to see a 10-20% hit in the first year.

But where do these figures of 10-20% come from? You specifically said that UK GDP will be hit by £200-400 billion in the first year where are you getting this from and how does that tie in with the long term forecasts?

[dribbles]

Nope, it does not. The interim treaty for up to 10 years can only be issued when two parties are contractors to prospective FTZ or CU. That, my dear, is the complete opposite of trading under WTO rules for neutral countries.

But that exactly describes the UK/EU position. From April 2019 we trade with the EU on WTO but both parties are prospective FTZ trade partners. That negotiation can take up to 10 years, longer in exceptional circumstances but crucially in the interim doesn't require the UK to enforce a hard border in N Ireland, totally up to the EU if they do or don't break the GFA.

Also, Dual citizenship is allowed for people from other EU countries or Switzerland. So, no, they are not giving UK citizens a better status. Just pretty much the same. Because Germany does not see a reason to punish British expats for Brexit. Furthermore, this provision only applies during the transition period, so it has no meaning if there is no transition period.

Facts just don't seem to agree with you, do they?

Can an Austrian, in general, hold dual nationality with Germany? Facts required please, not excuses, can they?

[Mayhem]

Can an Austrian, in general, hold dual nationality with Germany? Facts required please, not excuses, can they?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...al_citizenship

Yup.

[Fuiking]

Oh no, the first beneficiaries of the brexit dividend have been announced today, I am not imagining it, all over news....hard working nurses, teachers and so on... wouldn't be happening if we weren't leaving the EU.

Dream on Dribbles, if that dividend happens (which might NOT happen) it might be the same red herring mark rutte told everyone ... ''everyone gets 1000 euros from me!'' When the opposite was true.


Same with that so-called dividend your wanking so much about, it might not even happen, and it will be a one-timer, then you discover theres no money, they lower wages again, and increase taxes and no one won!

[dribbles]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...al_citizenship

Yup.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austri...al_citizenship

Nope

[Mayhem]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austri...al_citizenship

Nope

Ah, I thought you were talking about Germany, not Austria, you know why I thought that?

In case you didn't know German citizens generally are not allowed dual status however British citizens in Germany will now be allowed to keep British and German nationality.

[dribbles]

Ah, I thought you were talking about Germany, not Austria, you know why I thought that?

Ah I was talking about Austria, you know why you should have thought that?

Can an Austrian, in general, hold dual nationality with Germany? Facts required please, not excuses, can they?

[Mayhem]

Ah I was talking about Austria, you know why you should have thought that?

You don't quite get this, aren't you?

Even in Austria, there are people with dual citizenship, because the Austrian government isn't doing a good job of keeping track of it and it highly depends on working together with other governments to get the information about their citizens.

So if it's allowed in Germany, then why the fuck should the German government ask for Information or give a shit about the laws of Austria?

[Kiri]

But that exactly describes the UK/EU position. From April 2019 we trade with the EU on WTO but both parties are prospective FTZ trade partners. That negotiation can take up to 10 years, longer in exceptional circumstances but crucially in the interim doesn't require the UK to enforce a hard border in N Ireland, totally up to the EU if they do or don't break the GFA.



Can an Austrian, in general, hold dual nationality with Germany? Facts required please, not excuses, can they?

http://www.eu-info.de/eu-familienrec...chaft-eu/7505/ There. It's a German source since I did not really find one in English so far, mostly because keywords always lead to US-German dual citizenship things. It is also on wikipedia though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...al_citizenship. So, yeah, an Austrian can get both, unless Austrian laws have a provision against that. I am not an expert in Austrian law.

And that is not how the WTO article works.

1. Customs unions, free-trade areas, and interim agreements leading to the formation of a customs union or free-trade area, to be consistent with Article XXIV, must satisfy, inter alia, the provisions of paragraphs 5, 6, 7 and 8 of that Article.

(c) any interim agreement referred to in subparagraphs (a) and (b) shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time.

You can't just say "Yeah, we are likely to get something ironed out, give me that interim treaty now". That would be stupid. That measure is only there to enable a transition period, after two sides have already agreed on a plan to set one up. Specifically, this is all explicitly contrary to your initial position - i.e. that trade between the EU and UK should happen under WTO rules. WTO rules applying is not the same as negotiating an FTZ or CU, and it is definitely not having negotiated one, which you would need for the interim to apply.

[Deleted]

raab saying “We’ll make sure there is adequate food”. Tory Venezuela.

[Pann]

raab saying “We’ll make sure there is adequate food”. Tory Venezuela.

McDonnell won't be happy about it if the Tories steal his idea and follow the Venezuelan model.

- - - Updated - - -

So we can expect rationing books early next year.

They had better be blue.

[Noradin]

What a load of absolute garbage. What the hell is a world trade deal?????

It's when you sell a trade deal with Arda or Ringworld to your electorate.

[Pann]

Keep Calm and Carry On...

https://twitter.com/CommonsHealth/st...83791323553792

[Vankrys]

Keep Calm and Carry On...

https://twitter.com/CommonsHealth/st...83791323553792

and start stocking food?

[Deleted]

and start stocking food?

I actually called this only about 12 hours ago on this forum. I had no idea the government was already planning for this eventuality.

The europhobes were crowing about how unlikely this was.

[Mayhem]

I actually called this only about 12 hours ago on this forum. I had no idea the government was already planning for this eventuality.

The europhobes were crowing about how unlikely this was.

Right, so, you've called something 12 hours ago on this forum, but I'm quoting your first post on these forums.

hmmmmmmm

So who's burner account are you then? Better quote yourself next time if you want to keep this charade.

[Pann]

I actually called this only about 12 hours ago on this forum. I had no idea the government was already planning for this eventuality.

The europhobes were crowing about how unlikely this was.

You can't have done so on this forum you've only got one post.

I must say that it good now that you're using numbering on your naming so we can all keep track of how accounts you create.

[Kallisto]

no deal will have no transition period.

that's why NHS/families should be stocking up on medicine/food because in a no deal scenario supply chains will be completely wrecked.

hopefully by march 29th i'll be away from the mess tho.

I would actually laugh if your plan fell to shit. You and people like you putting us in this situation because of your stupid outlook. You should be the one to suffer, you and Dribbles. You are the ones who brought this on the country, you should be the ones to pay for it.

- - - Updated - - -

EU membership = public sector pay cap and austerity.
Non EU membership = Brexit dividend for the many not the few.

Not too hard was it? If we weren't leaving the UK's servants would still be pay capped. Simples.

Now let's repeat the real facts here.

There
Is
No
Brexit
Dividend.

[Deleted]

Right, so, you've called something 12 hours ago on this forum, but I'm quoting your first post on these forums.

hmmmmmmm

So who's burner account are you then? Better quote yourself next time if you want to keep this charade.

I'm not any one's burner account. I have no interest in sucking the dick of a small group of alt.right teenage american moderators, corporate liberals and eurofascists. I simply create a new id every day. it is easier than having to make posts which don't conflict with the prejudices of those people. So does any one with a modicum of self-respect and integrity given how insultingly bad the moderation process is.

Now, do you have anything to add other than being a pathetically sad and impotent anal hall monitor?

[Pann]

I'm not any one's burner account. I have no interest in sucking the dick of a small group of alt.right teenage american moderators, corporate liberals and eurofascists. I simply create a new id every day. it is easier than having to make posts which don't conflict with the prejudices of those people. So does any one with a modicum of self-respect and integrity given how insultingly bad the moderation process is.

Now, do you have anything to add other than being a pathetically sad and impotent anal hall monitor?

I think possibly the saddest thing about your inability to accept that you're not welcome here is that you have absolutely nothing new or even remotely intelligent to say.