The Brexit aftermath thread

[Noradin]

You are delusional if you think we have any chance of reversing brexit and I will continue to call out the brexiteers for what they are, fucking morons every last one of those little englander cunts.

Some of them might be malicious traitors instead.

[madmossy]

If brexit is going to happen on the 29th March next year, its going to be a no deal scenario, there is no way on earth they will push through this hodge bodge deal when hardly anyone would support it in the house of commons.

[Noradin]

Liberals are left-wing... uhm, what's wrong with that statement exactly?

Spotted the person with US background pretending to be from the UK.

[Pann]

If brexit is going to happen on the 29th March next year, its going to be a no deal scenario, there is no way on earth they will push through this hodge bodge deal when hardly anyone would support it in the house of commons.

I wouldn't be so sure. If Parliament are faced with no deal being the only option it is possible that they will vote the the government request an extension of the A50 notice period.

But I suspect that there will be a great many twists and turns between now and March.

[dribbles]

I wouldn't be so sure. If Parliament are faced with no deal being the only option it is possible that they will vote the the government request an extension of the A50 notice period.

But I suspect that there will be a great many twists and turns between now and March.

How long can they extend Article 50 and the status quo for? EU elections are in May and they have already divvied up the lost British MEP's. I guess they miss Nigel Farage more than they let on.

[madmossy]

May had said we are leaving on the 29th March, so unless she wants to make herself and her government look even more incompetent her options are limited. Either way I think the shit will be hitting the fan very soon.

[Pann]

How long can they extend Article 50 and the status quo for? EU elections are in May and they have already divvied up the lost British MEP's. I guess they miss Nigel Farage more than they let on.

I don't know I guess it would all depend on how far away both sides feel they are from a deal.

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May had said we are leaving on the 29th March, so unless she wants to make herself and her government look even more incompetent her options are limited. Either way I think the shit will be hitting the fan very soon.

May needs the backing of Parliament to finalise leaving.

--------

Oh, ITV News have just said that the Tory rebels have the numbers to topple May. Oops, ignore me they said they do NOT have the numbers yet.

[dribbles]

May had said we are leaving on the 29th March, so unless she wants to make herself and her government look even more incompetent her options are limited. Either way I think the shit will be hitting the fan very soon.

David Davis has it right when he says that the UK parliament will throw the ball back in the EU court when parliament votes down the latest proposal.

He says today...

“It won’t be sort of lost by a couple of votes. I think it will be lost by a large number of votes. Then she goes back to Brussels and says ‘I can’t deliver what you have asked for’.

“And then they have got to choose. Do they want no deal or do they want a deal? Whatever they say today, they will decide they want a deal.”

Looks like EU capitulation is on the way.

[Kallisto]

Looks like EU capitulation is on the way.

Only in your delusions. The strong do not capitulate to the weak and divided. The EU is strong, stable and is working as one in this while the UK is a coalition of chaos if there ever was one.

[Acidbaron]

I do hope we ban all those architects of chaos access to the europe mainland, they can go sit out their days in Russia or somewhere else not in a western nation.
Has to be some old laws still around that was used during the cold war.

Even if we look at May's speech for this deal, they really have a hard on for their fishing industry don't they, so the goal is what exactly empty out the north sea in the coming 10 years and so really kill off the industry completely?

[Slant]

I wouldn't be so sure. If Parliament are faced with no deal being the only option it is possible that they will vote the the government request an extension of the A50 notice period.

But I suspect that there will be a great many twists and turns between now and March.

Considering how much damage this uncertainty is causing coupled with the fact that the UK shows no sign at all of becoming anything but a disorganised and bickering pack of spiteful old people, I would bet actual money on the EU rejecting such a request. Remember, all it takes is one member state to say no.

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Looks like EU capitulation is on the way.

The EU won't renegotiate at this stage. The EU has entered a state of automatisms. There is no political support in the member states to continue this farce. Either November sees a meeting to prepare the December ratification (pending member state ratifications), or you crash out. Tick, tock.

[Deleted]

Considering how much damage this uncertainty is causing coupled with the fact that the UK shows no sign at all of becoming anything but a disorganised and bickering pack of spiteful old people, I would bet actual money on the EU rejecting such a request. Remember, all it takes is one member state to say no.

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The EU won't renegotiate at this stage. The EU has entered a state of automatisms. There is no political support in the member states to continue this farce. Either November sees a meeting to prepare the December ratification (pending member state ratifications), or you crash out. Tick, tock.

I think if the situation stays the same you are indeed correct. However the fact that this is the first time article 50 has been triggered and the fact that it is too loose with some of its general clauses, such as stipulating the timeline but not a potential extension. There is far too much room for legal challenge.

It is both safer legally and morally correct (given the unknown damage to both economies) to agree to an extension if something changed politically in the UK, such as DUP voting down the budget and causing a GE bringing corbyn to power.

Much as my countrymen like to demonise the EUs handling of Brexit, it has been on point legally and its position has not wavered. I would fully expect that to continue and if anything would expect our parliamentary incompetence to be more of an issue than the EU.

[Slant]

I think if the situation stays the same you are indeed correct. However the fact that this is the first time article 50 has been triggered and the fact that it is too loose with some of its general clauses, such as stipulating the timeline but not a potential extension. There is far too much room for legal challenge.

It is both safer legally and morally correct (given the unknown damage to both economies) to agree to an extension if something changed politically in the UK, such as DUP voting down the budget and causing a GE bringing corbyn to power.

Much as my countrymen like to demonise the EUs handling of Brexit, it has been on point legally and its position has not wavered. I would fully expect that to continue and if anything would expect our parliamentary incompetence to be more of an issue than the EU.

France and Germany have both expressed their intent to reject any sort of renegotiation already. As far as the EU is concerned, this matter is settled. The extension is not meant to give the UK more time to mess about. It's meant to be used for the negotiation of the new agreement. Since the UK can't even finish the first step, there is no point arguing for an extension that's unlikely to be needed.

I'm not sure a GE would sway the EU, actually. It's a domestic matter, as far as the EU is concerned. And the way things have been going, a GE is not going to resolve anything, really. The EU at this point is in damage control mode. They cannot prevent the Brexit, because - ironically - it would impede on the sovereignity of the UK. But when you have a rotten hand, you can opt to cut it off. And that's what the EU is doing right now. If you look at Macron's and Merkel's speeches, they've already moved on. They're reorientating the EU to look forward and plan a future without the UK. It seems, unfortunately for you, that you are already out. Politically, at least. Whatever happens next, if the UK doesn't sort itself out dramatically within the next week or two, and I mean... turning from a kindergarten with children flinging dirt at each other into a respectable house of democracy that is able to form a consensus and deal with the consequences, the EU will treat the rest of this episode as a mere formality and let automatism take its course.

See, the EU has a pretty clear picture of what a crashout would entail. They've been preparing for it for 2 years. They think they can handle the EU side of the matter well enough to limit the fallout on the continent. Whatever happens to the UK is really up to the UK itself from now on. I have little hope that the result is going to be different than what I've just described. And to be honest, a part of me wants it to happen, too. The UK will serve as an example to anyone who thinks populism and cheap propaganda are valid tools to make politics. And don't worry, we're well aware that inside the UK they will scream bloody murder and blame the EU for everything. I've not met anyone that cared in a long time. At least in Germany, we've grown accustomed to it and ignore it. What are they gonna do, blame us some more? As if anyone listens to them these days.

Remember this the next time someone scoffs at "experts". Especially in the upcoming years.

[Deleted]

The EU: Has treated the negotiations as professionally as possible

UK Politicians: Don't even know the meaning of the word professional

But sure, they're going to capitulate anyday now Dribs.

[Slant]

Normally, I wouldn't just quote an entire piece, but I know FT is behind a paywall and this is just too brilliant not to have it here... This expresses my sentiment so well. An OpEd from the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/29468d52-...YlyAC75Z2CcVG8

In one sense, Boris Johnson is right. The Brexit process has indeed felt like a national humiliation. How many Brits have felt our innards shrivel at key moments of the negotiations? And I am not talking about the incidents of diplomatic bumbling, of unwarranted second world war references and Dad’s Army condescension. I am talking about the parts of this process that have gone as predicted.

Perhaps we should step back from the bloviated rhetoric. Humiliation is too strong; a national humbling is more accurate. The philosophy of Brexit was that, freed of EU constraints, the UK would take its rightful place in the world. This is indeed what is happening, but alas that place is not as the great power of their imagination. The UK’s place in the world is hardly terrible but, as Mr Johnson learnt during his brief but undistinguished term as foreign secretary, our emissaries no longer bestride summits like Castlereagh.

For far too long British politicians, journalists and voters have enjoyed a patently distorted vision of the nation as indispensable world player. Now the nation is facing the painful truth that the UK is not as pre-eminent as it has liked to believe.

For proof, look at the negotiations over the Irish border. One need not get into the rights and wrongs to see that the UK has essentially been pushed around by Ireland, because the EU has thrown its weight behind the demands of its continuing member. The hard fact is that the power imbalance has meant the UK is being forced to choose between the chaos of a no-deal Brexit or undermining the constitutional integrity of one of its four sovereign parts and signing up to a significant amount of rule-taking. This is what happens when a single country that is not America or China negotiates with a global trading bloc.

From the sequencing of the negotiations to the empty scorecard of British wins, the entire process has been a lesson in power politics. Few who saw the TV programme on America’s London embassy will forget the smirks as an US official described the British Brexit delusions: “They sort of see it as a negotiation between two equal parties.”

One should not overstate this. Britain is not Latvia. It still carries heft. It is a top 10 global economy (fifth, sixth or ninth depending on the market and your choice of methodology). It remains a military power, with a nuclear deterrent and a seat on the UN Security Council. It is the only European nation with access to US intelligence through the “five eyes” programme. Its pre-eminence as a financial centre will not immediately be dissipated by Brexit. The UK will still get its call, but after France and Germany and just before Canada. Life in the top 10 is different to life in the top three.

Much of the UK’s global clout derived from its being one of the big nations of the EU. Margaret Thatcher used that very platform to help create the single market, drive forward global trade and entrench democracy in eastern Europe. The 1970s champions of Britain’s membership were right in arguing that the alternative to pooled sovereignty was not more influence but less.

Now Britain is about to taste life as one of the loudest of the next level of voices. In this tier, maintaining influence beyond military matters, requires the painstaking unbombastic alliance-building that saw its existing political and diplomatic practitioners so derided as sell-outs by our chauvinistic MPs and media. It might, for example, mean expediting entry permits for Moldovan trade representatives so they do not delay the UK’s ambitions at the World Trade Organization.

And how will the UK’s status be reflected in its new trade deals? One has only to look at Donald Trump’s treatment of Canada to see that his negotiators will offer no special favours to the UK. Mr Trump is pro-Brexit because he wants to see a weakened EU, not to play benefactor to the UK. EU nations will be similarly cut-throat. Nor will sentimental attachments affect Commonwealth nations. Too many Brits fail to grasp that former colonies do not look back to the empire with unalloyed affection.

While this has all been understood by serious figures in government, too much of Britain’s politics, culture and its self-image have been driven by its colonial past and the national myths built up around the last war. It is why the Brexiters cling so desperately to the theory that Theresa May has betrayed Brexit. The alternative is to accept that it is their own reckless chauvinism that has reduced the UK to the role of supplicant with its former partners.

Adjusting to a reduced status will require a reality check in our media and our politics and a touch of humility. If Brexit helps the UK come to a more accurate realisation of its global significance, some good may yet come out of this wretched business. Still, it seems an expensive way to learn a lesson.

[Deleted]

France and Germany have both expressed their intent to reject any sort of renegotiation already. As far as the EU is concerned, this matter is settled. The extension is not meant to give the UK more time to mess about. It's meant to be used for the negotiation of the new agreement. Since the UK can't even finish the first step, there is no point arguing for an extension that's unlikely to be needed.

I'm not sure a GE would sway the EU, actually. It's a domestic matter, as far as the EU is concerned. And the way things have been going, a GE is not going to resolve anything, really. The EU at this point is in damage control mode. They cannot prevent the Brexit, because - ironically - it would impede on the sovereignity of the UK. But when you have a rotten hand, you can opt to cut it off. And that's what the EU is doing right now. If you look at Macron's and Merkel's speeches, they've already moved on. They're reorientating the EU to look forward and plan a future without the UK. It seems, unfortunately for you, that you are already out. Politically, at least. Whatever happens next, if the UK doesn't sort itself out dramatically within the next week or two, and I mean... turning from a kindergarten with children flinging dirt at each other into a respectable house of democracy that is able to form a consensus and deal with the consequences, the EU will treat the rest of this episode as a mere formality and let automatism take its course.

See, the EU has a pretty clear picture of what a crashout would entail. They've been preparing for it for 2 years. They think they can handle the EU side of the matter well enough to limit the fallout on the continent. Whatever happens to the UK is really up to the UK itself from now on. I have little hope that the result is going to be different than what I've just described. And to be honest, a part of me wants it to happen, too. The UK will serve as an example to anyone who thinks populism and cheap propaganda are valid tools to make politics. And don't worry, we're well aware that inside the UK they will scream bloody murder and blame the EU for everything. I've not met anyone that cared in a long time. At least in Germany, we've grown accustomed to it and ignore it. What are they gonna do, blame us some more? As if anyone listens to them these days.

Remember this the next time someone scoffs at "experts". Especially in the upcoming years.

I think you are unfairly labelling alot of us here, i don't personally agree with the future vision of the EU but I dont buy into the BS.

The biggest issue here are the lies continously told and lack of personal responsibility. I actually find it a little bemusing that they walked away from their main scapegoat, now maybe they can be held accountable for schoolboy errors.

I am the only remainer in my workplace and 2 days ago brexit was brought up, one of my colleagues had recently attended a local Q and A with the conservative MP who was adamant No deal = No hard border with Ireland. What can we so when these are the people in office?

But anyway aside. Merkel and Macron are actually helping May by saying theres no chance of renegotiation, if that was on the table I think she would be gone.
As it is her strat is to convince MPs to not follow the whip and instead vote with their conscience, for the country and their constituents, party politics to be laid down.
If she can convince enough of them that its this or the cliff she might yet scrape it through.
Its telling that there hasn't been a no confidance vote despite the massive negativity towards the deal, even some of rees-mogg allies have said it would be a national disaster to go for a no-deal.

[Slant]

I think you are unfairly labelling alot of us here, i don't personally agree with the future vision of the EU but I dont buy into the BS.

The biggest issue here are the lies continously told and lack of personal responsibility. I actually find it a little bemusing that they walked away from their main scapegoat, now maybe they can be held accountable for schoolboy errors.

I am the only remainer in my workplace and 2 days ago brexit was brought up, one of my colleagues had recently attended a local Q and A with the conservative MP who was adamant No deal = No hard border with Ireland. What can we so when these are the people in office?

But anyway aside. Merkel and Macron are actually helping May by saying theres no chance of renegotiation, if that was on the table I think she would be gone.
As it is her strat is to convince MPs to not follow the whip and instead vote with their conscience, for the country and their constituents, party politics to be laid down.
If she can convince enough of them that its this or the cliff she might yet scrape it through.
Its telling that there hasn't been a no confidance vote despite the massive negativity towards the deal, even some of rees-mogg allies have said it would be a national disaster to go for a no-deal.

How am I labelling you? I'm talking about the UK as a nation.

And I don't think anyone over here actually cares at this point if we're helping May or not. She's your problem, not ours. Or rather, your sad sack of corrupt and swindelling politicians is your problem, not ours. I mean, once more a UK politician is using the EU to make domestic politics and others are using the EU to make power grabs. We're not surprised, why are you? The best thing is that soon this toy will be taken from you. And soon you'll be able to make your politicians responsible for what they do, because they have no excuse anymore. Use it wisely, this is probably your one time chance to introduce actual accountability into your politics. If you continue to tolerate their circus, you'll probably never emancipate yourself from the clownage in Westminster.

[Acidbaron]

How am I labelling you? I'm talking about the UK as a nation.

And I don't think anyone over here actually cares at this point if we're helping May or not. She's your problem, not ours. Or rather, your sad sack of corrupt and swindelling politicians is your problem, not ours. I mean, once more a UK politician is using the EU to make domestic politics and others are using the EU to make power grabs. We're not surprised, why are you? The best thing is that soon this toy will be taken from you. And soon you'll be able to make your politicians responsible for what they do, because they have no excuse anymore. Use it wisely, this is probably your one time chance to introduce actual accountability into your politics. If you continue to tolerate their circus, you'll probably never emancipate yourself from the clownage in Westminster.

Don't kid yourself they'll continue to blame the EU for everything they no longer have. The EU remains an easy target as the EU doesn't get involved on local politics so it's a scapegoat that doesn't attack back. If they can't get deals done fast, what they never would have the EU will be blamed, if the economy shrinks idem and so forth.

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Quite a few of them were serving US corporate interests, not Russia.

I see the current US administration on the white house level an extension of Russia's interests.

[Slant]

Don't kid yourself they'll continue to blame the EU for everything they no longer have. The EU remains an easy target as the EU doesn't get involved on local politics so it's a scapegoat that doesn't attack back. If they can't get deals done fast, what they never would have the EU will be blamed, if the economy shrinks idem and so forth.

Yeah, but now the EU can afford to ignore them. The EU couldn't ignore them when they were one of the top three contributors.

[Pann]

...one of my colleagues had recently attended a local Q and A with the conservative MP who was adamant No deal = No hard border with Ireland. What can we so when these are the people in office?

Perhaps I am being unfair but I suspect that the MP was telling people what they want to hear. However the MP in question is technically correct in so much as no deal doesn't necessarily equal a hard Irish border. Despite the commonly held belief that the WTO requires countries to secure their borders there is no such rule. In order for the WTO to become involved in the EU/UK border issue it would require a member state to lodge a discrimination complaint, that Irish goods are treated better than those from the rest of the world, under Most Favoured Nation rules which would take many years to be processed by which time it may have been possible for the UK to have implemented a technological solution.

Secondly WTO rules (Article 21) allow nations to break non-discrimination rules on the grounds of national security however this would require agreement in the WTO from both the UK and the EU. Which obviously in a no deal scenario is not a given and since it is likely that this could only apply to the border on the island of Ireland and not the whole of the UK is brings up the same issues that the unionists object to with the proposed sea border.

Before I get jumped on by the usual muppets I am in no way advocating this course of action or even suggesting that it would come to pass and I suspect that since immigration was such a large driving force behind people voting to leave and this would essentially leave the UK border open to EU nationals that it would be unpalatable for many UK voters and therefore very unlikely to happen.