The Brexit aftermath thread

[Teleros]

naah, the deal is so dead now with the Gibraltar issue. if UK wants to keep Gibraltar they need to wage a war or will have to cancel Brexit.

Strong stuff you're smoking there...

Remember, this was a potential veto over May's deal with the EU. If Parliament doesn't approve that deal (which I'm guessing it won't), this becomes a non-issue anyway.

[dribbles]

She is the worst PM in living memory and speaks for no one save herself, as the EU will see in a couple of weeks time. In the olden days she would have be confined to the tower by now. Giving away Gibraltar, giving away N. Ireland, who next Wales, Scotland, Essex?

But she does make an excellent time wasting negotiator, with no authority, from a no deal brexiteers pov.

Tick tock.

[Acidbaron]

Can Spain even afford to expand and take Gibraltar in?

Can't blame the people there for wanting to remain in the EU though. Does seem with every passing step the UK is crumbling and the Brexit has yet to begin.

[Pann]

And you know that because you've come back from the future and seen the results? Or because you are a super-genius AI that has mapped all the permutations out much better than the experts that are predicting the issues? Just so I'm clear why you are stating this as if it's a proven fact.

What? The majority of project fear's predictions were based on the vote to leave, this is an event that happened in the past. Was there a profound and immediate shock to the economy causing a year long recession? Was there an emergency budget? Have house prices fallen? Has the cost of borrowing gone up? What about unemployment, that's risen... right?

[Acidbaron]

What? The majority of project fear's predictions were based on the vote to leave, this is an event that happened in the past. Was there a profound and immediate shock to the economy causing a recession? Was there an emergency budget? Have house prices fallen? What about unemployment, that's risen... right?

Weird and here i was thinking the campaign was about the actual exit of britain from the the EU, not just the vote.

Oh wait you're just moving the goal post in an attempt to come across not a complete fool, don't mind me carry!

[Pann]

Weird and here i was thinking the campaign was about the actual exit of britain from the the EU, not just the vote.

Oh wait you're just moving the goal post in an attempt to come across not a complete fool, don't mind me carry!

Well, not for the first time, you thought wrong.

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Theresa May say “We have assured Gibraltar is covered by the whole withdrawal agreement the implementation period and we will always negotiate on behalf of the whole UK family, including Gibraltar, and in the future relationship we will stand up for their interests.

“The UK’s position on the sovereinty of Gibraltar has never changed and will not change.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...-Pedro-Sanchez

Going on May's past performances I guess the residents of Gibraltar will all become Spanish sometime around next year.

[Slant]

Quoting the Express? There should be an infraction for that, really.

[Pann]

Oh, Gibraltar are not happy with Spain; Mr Picardo compares Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez to the country's former dictator General Franco.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-spai...eting-11561784

[Deleted]

This is the video on which the Honourable Picardo makes the comparison:
https://youtu.be/U4Ynl0WiP74?t=435

[Teleros]

Looks like Number 10 & the Eurocrats are scrambling to come up with an alternative deal:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-deal-leaders/

• Ninety-one Tory MPs indicate they will vote against PM's deal in the Commons
• Senior ministers talking up Norway-style relationship with Brussels
• Plan would give more certain 'exit mechanism' but no end to free movement

Still sounds pretty delusional to me, given what all the Tory rebels, DUP and such have been saying. Norway is in the EEA (ie the customs union) and free movement was one of the biggest single causes behind the Brexit vote. At this rate the WTO option is looking more and more likely.

[ranzino]

Strong stuff you're smoking there...

Remember, this was a potential veto over May's deal with the EU. If Parliament doesn't approve that deal (which I'm guessing it won't), this becomes a non-issue anyway.

UK is able to call the bluff, WA was not up for unanimous ratification anyway and rest of EU wants the deal.
the only partner with veto power was RoI, because EU pledged them support from the start; overruling them was never an option.


WA seems dead in the water already, more than 99 MP will vote against it, for various reasons. but the charade tomorrow will have to take place to provide something to present for ratification. there is no time for anything else, no major changes possible by now.

[Pann]

Looks like Number 10 & the Eurocrats are scrambling to come up with an alternative deal:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-deal-leaders/

• Ninety-one Tory MPs indicate they will vote against PM's deal in the Commons
• Senior ministers talking up Norway-style relationship with Brussels
• Plan would give more certain 'exit mechanism' but no end to free movement

Still sounds pretty delusional to me, given what all the Tory rebels, DUP and such have been saying. Norway is in the EEA (ie the customs union) and free movement was one of the biggest single causes behind the Brexit vote. At this rate the WTO option is looking more and more likely.

What a mess. However I am not certain that this will result in reverting to WTO terms, I think it will get voted down which will send the markets into a panic, Theresa May will then return to the EU handing over to them something more from the UK, like Shropshire, in return the EU will alter a semi-colon here, full stop there, May will then return to the HoC stating that she has a new and improved deal which will then be reluctantly voted through.

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UK is able to call the bluff, WA was not up for unanimous ratification anyway and rest of EU wants the deal.
the only partner with veto power was RoI, because EU pledged them support from the start; overruling them was never an option.

Correct me if I'm wrong but can't the future EU/UK FTA be vetoed?

[Stormdash]

Have they considered Brexit-ing as a strategy for Brexit?

[ranzino]

how often does HoC have to vote it down to scrap WA ?

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....
Correct me if I'm wrong but can't the future EU/UK FTA be vetoed?

yup, but that's for another day in 2020 or so. TM may resign before or spain is bribed into obedience or whatever.

[Pann]

Have they considered Brexit-ing as a strategy for Brexit?

Hmm, I don't know how that would work seeing as no-one really knows what Brexit is and since the current version of Brexit is to not really Brexit would that mean that Brexiting Brexit is just carrying on with Brexit? This is could get confusing!

[ranzino]

Have they considered Brexit-ing as a strategy for Brexit?

May was honest about that: this deal, no deal or no brexit. but you may find fans for no deal and no brexit in HoC, both voting down the deal to get their wishes. between such a rock and a hard place the deal itself is dead by current opinion.

i wonder still if May is not forcing the parliament to dare a "no deal" vote. voting down the deal is one matter, but calling down the doom of "no deal" ? it is a gamble which may backfire horribly.

[Pann]

yup, but that's for another day in 2020 or so. TM may resign before or spain is bribed into obedience or whatever.

I thought as much. It makes no sense for Spain to play their hand when they don't actually have the ability to derail the Brexit process, I suspect that this intended for an internal Spanish audience in the Spanish regional elections and by agreeing with the Spanish terms May has bought Sanchez some political capital with voters and in reality this is little more than a can kicking exercise.

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May was honest about that: this deal, no deal or no brexit. but you may find fans for no deal and no brexit in HoC, both voting down the deal to get their wishes. between such a rock and a hard place the deal itself is dead by current opinion.

i wonder still if May is not forcing the parliament to dare a "no deal" vote. voting down the deal is one matter, but calling down the doom of "no deal" ? it is a gamble which may backfire horribly.

May mentioning no deal or no Brexit is, at the moment, nothing more than posturing to get MPs to support her deal. She is hoping the threat of no deal is enough to scare remain MPs to support her deal and that the prospect of no Brexit gets leavers to do the same. I'm not sure it will work but I would bet on remain MPs blinking before the prospect of no deal becomes a reality.

[Teleros]

What a mess. However I am not certain that this will result in reverting to WTO terms, I think it will get voted down which will send the markets into a panic, Theresa May will then return to the EU handing over to them something more from the UK, like Shropshire, in return the EU will alter a semi-colon here, full stop there, May will then return to the HoC stating that she has a new and improved deal which will then be reluctantly voted through.

That can't be ruled out, but I'm not sure how realistic it is. If nothing else, an awful lot of Tories are looking at electoral suicide if they vote anything like a Norway-style or Theresa May-style deal through, and might prefer the WTO result for that reason. Remember, if the WTO result does go anything like what Slant et al predict it will, the Tories then have a very credible reason to knife May and hang her out to dry to save their own skins. "Yup, it was all her fault, you even had DExEU ministers saying they had no part of the negotiations etc etc etc, now please don't vote me out."

[Pann]

That can't be ruled out, but I'm not sure how realistic it is. If nothing else, an awful lot of Tories are looking at electoral suicide if they vote anything like a Norway-style or Theresa May-style deal through, and might prefer the WTO result for that reason. Remember, if the WTO result does go anything like what Slant et al predict it will, the Tories then have a very credible reason to knife May and hang her out to dry to save their own skins. "Yup, it was all her fault, you even had DExEU ministers saying they had no part of the negotiations etc etc etc, now please don't vote me out."

Based on current events I can't see any way how no deal could get through Parliament unless it is a result of complete incompetence which let's be honest cannot be ruled out. And I don't think there is an appetite for WTO terms within the Con party as a whole but I agree that the general consensus is that May's deal is a bit crap. I think May is gone after March next year regardless, unless Brexit is complete and utter success with cake, unicorns and £350 million for the NHS... oh and fish... mustn't forget the fish.

I, also, would not rule out the chance of a 2nd referendum but whatever happens is going to wild ride between now and March.

[Teleros]

Based on current events I can't see any way how no deal could get through Parliament unless it is a result of complete incompetence which let's be honest cannot be ruled out.

To my mind it's not that so much as the amount of time needed to get a wide-ranging deal done (to say nothing of preparing for it). Per the Telegraph article, the "Norway-style" arrangement would mean customs union membership and free movement of peoples, two of the biggest sticking points for Brexiteers. That means such a deal is also likely to fail, unless Labour prop up May's government (possible, but I'm not sure how likely that is).

At that point what does May do? She wasted a lot of time to get this far, and for her to turn right around and get the EU to agree to a trade agreement that doesn't include a customs union, free movement or any kind of EU jurisdiction over UK matters is... not terribly likely, to put it mildly.

And I don't think there is an appetite for WTO terms within the Con party as a whole

Agreed, but the calculation is going to be "which will get me re-elected, betraying Brexit or WTO terms?" ... I mean sure, Ken Clarke will get re-elected no matter what, because his constituency is as safe as they come, but a lot of other Tories are not in that position. If the WTO option goes badly, they get to pin all the blame on May for her bad negotiations, but at least they personally delivered on Brexit and didn't betray the voters. If the WTO option goes well, they take all the credit for having the confidence in the British people to make a success out of it, then knife May in the back for trying to betray us :P .

I think May is gone after March next year regardless

I'm amazed she lasted even this long TBH.