The Brexit aftermath thread

[Mighty Tim]

Oooh, May has just said that parliament will have to vote (on 13th March) on whether on we leave without a deal if her deal is rejected on 12th and if they vote against this then a vote will be held whether to extend A50 on 14th.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...source=twitter

Ah democary in action vote,vote,and vote again till your rulers get what they want.

[LeGin Tufnel]

Ah democary in action vote,vote,and vote again till your rulers get what they want.

In my opinion, you shouldn't be allowed to vote unless you can spell.

[Pann]

Ah democary in action vote,vote,and vote again till your rulers get what they want.

Eh? They are three different votes, if May's deal passes at the first vote there will be no need for the second or third votes.

[Northern Goblin]

Ah democary in action vote,vote,and vote again till your rulers get what they want.

It's almost as if you're allowed to change your mind 3 years later.

[dribbles]

Eh? They are three different votes, if May's deal passes at the first vote there will be no need for the second or third votes.

I think the house will vote against her deal, unless 230 MP's turn turncoat, and probably no deal. March 14th is the important one, will they vote for or against an extension and will the EU agree if they vote for one?. And for what reason? And for how long?

But importantly, no deal has not been taken off the table today.

[Northern Goblin]

I think the house will vote against her deal, unless 230 MP's turn turncoat, and probably no deal. March 14th is the important one, will they vote for or against an extension and will the EU agree if they vote for one?. And for what reason? And for how long?

But importantly, no deal has not been taken off the table today.

No, but the vote for it has been announced, should her deal be voted down.

Looks like the risk of crashing out is all but dead.

[Pann]

I think the house will vote against her deal, unless 230 MP's turn turncoat, and probably no deal. March 14th is the important one, will they vote for or against an extension and will the EU agree if they vote for one?. And for what reason? And for how long?

But importantly, no deal has not been taken off the table today.

I agree but once (if) May's deal and no deal have been rejected there is no option but to seek an extension. I think the EU will agree to one but the question is how long will it be for, if it is for 21 months (as has been reported) then I would say that Brexit is unlikely to happen and as a result I expect that pro-leave MPs will lobby for the shortest extension possible. What could be interesting is that parliament reject no deal and then the EU say it is a 21 month extension or nothing.

Maybe not today but almost certainly on 13th March.

[dribbles]

No, but the vote for it has been announced, should her deal be voted down.

Looks like the risk of crashing out is all but dead.

Did you mean to say the risk of cashing in is all but dead? :P

It still can happen, even if the path is less clear now...

I agree but once (if) May's deal and no deal have been rejected there is no option but to seek an extension. I think the EU will agree to one but the question is how long will it be for, if it is for 21 months (as has been reported) then I would say that Brexit is unlikely to happen and as a result I expect that pro-leave MPs will lobby for the shortest extension possible. What could be interesting is that parliament reject no deal and then the EU say it is a 21 month extension or nothing.

Maybe not today but almost certainly on 13th March.

That really is the question and I suspect the likely outcome. The PM is saying the extension will be only until June 30th, will they know before the vote if that is acceptable to the EU or if only a 21 month extension is on the table?

The brexiteer MP's have yet to respond...

[Mighty Tim]

It's almost as if you're allowed to change your mind 3 years later.

I don't think you should be. How pointless is democracy if you can just stall when you don't like the results and demand revotes forever?

[Pann]

That really is the question and I suspect the likely outcome. The PM is saying the extension will be only until June 30th, will they know before the vote if that is acceptable to the EU or if only a 21 month extension is on the table?

The brexiteer MP's have yet to respond...

To be honest I don't see what the point of an extension of three months would be, May's deal will dead (or more to the point even deader than it now) and it is not long enough to come up with an alternative but I guess we'll just have to see what happens.

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I don't think you should be. How pointless is democracy if you can just stall when you don't like the results and demand revotes forever?

The votes going on in parliament are not re-votes, they are designed (mainly to force the ERG and co to vote for May's deal) to find out exactly how parliament thinks we should proceed, if there is a desire to leave without a deal then that will pass and that is what we will do.

[Mighty Tim]

To be honest I don't see what the point of an extension of three months would be, May's deal will dead (or more to the point even deader than it now) and it is not long enough to come up with an alternative but I guess we'll just have to see what happens.

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The votes going on in parliament are not re-votes, they are designed (mainly to force the ERG and co to vote for May's deal) to find out exactly how parliament thinks we should proceed, if there is a desire to leave without a deal then that will pass and that is what we will do.

I am extremely skeptical that will happen... all that will happen is a revote with the hope people are exhausted with the government sabatoging leave to the point people want to stay.

If not they will claim people didn't know and demand a revote again if people say leave again.

[Pann]

I am extremely skeptical that will happen... all that will happen is a revote with the hope people are exhausted with the government sabatoging leave to the point people want to stay.

If not they will claim people didn't know and demand a revote again if people say leave again.

What evidence do you base this assumption on?

[Northern Goblin]

I don't think you should be. How pointless is democracy if you can just stall when you don't like the results and demand revotes forever?

Ask the ERG who wanted to vote for a new leader after picking one three years ago.

Ask the Opposition, who wanted to force a general election 2 years after the last.

True democracy allows people to vote and change their mind as circumstances change, not being able to form a fresh consensus as the situation shifts and new information comes to light would be anti democratic.

[Huehuecoyotl]

@dribbles

So May has just said "So the United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in this house for that outcome"

Stick a fork in no deal. It's done. You've ticked your last tock.

[Pann]

Assuming that May's deal and no-deal are voted down next month and parliament votes to extend A50 there is still a chance that no-deal will happen at the end of June.

[Mighty Tim]

Ask the ERG who wanted to vote for a new leader after picking one three years ago.

Ask the Opposition, who wanted to force a general election 2 years after the last.

True democracy allows people to vote and change their mind as circumstances change, not being able to form a fresh consensus as the situation shifts and new information comes to light would be anti democratic.

Then it won't ever do anything I will be frank though if the vote ends at any point with results saying remain I am skeptical to the extreme there will ever be another vote.

[dribbles]

@dribbles

So May has just said "So the United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in this house for that outcome"

Stick a fork in no deal. It's done. You've ticked your last tock.

It is a failing of UK democracy that parliament does not represent the will of the people, I will accept that much. However you are counting your chickens before those remain eggs have hatched.

I give you one turncoat remainer MP Anna Soubry, constituency Broxtowe who voted 55% 45% in favour of leave, who said just now "Shameful - PM refuses to answer my question about #NoDeal - it’s clearly still on the table" after her attempt to stymie brexit and get it removed failed.

https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/stat...88893017497600

I agree with her about no deal not being off the table. Shameful that she doesn't represent her electorate though, when is her by-election? If there is a delay to Brexit, time to start that deselection process and not just in her ex Tory constituency, but many others including Labour, who if they had a shred of decency would resign and hold that by-election.

Today we lost a battle, not the war...it is not over yet - put your champagne away...the clock is still most definitely ticking...

Oh and Chuka Umuuna has thrown his hat into the ring now too...

Yet again the PM caves in to the far right Tory ERG. She had the chance to take no deal off the table today but it is very much still there. When will sensible Ministers stand up to her and them? What will it take for these people to put country before party? Appalling.

I'm glad you see that as a win.

[Noradin]

Great news

Unfortunately, I fear the outcome will be rather different if MPs aren't careful.

This set of three votes make it seem as if they could just vote to avoid "no deal" even if they voted down her deal.

This is not so.

If they vote down her deal then they will get two votes where any minority among them can decide to go for a "no deal Brexit" and make it happen.
I fear it might give them a false sense of security and tempt them to vote down her deal.
The other two votes are simply a means for may to get out of the line of fire by shifting the blame to either the MPs stupid enough* to fall for her trap or to the EU (as usual).

*or desperate enough to avoid the new tax evasion directives of the EU that come into force on April 1st.

[Gibblewink]

The problem I see with May's timetable is that parliament can vote No in all three cases and the we are right back in the twilight zone. Granted one could say that that would mean revoking art 50, but that doesn't have a majority last time I looked.

Voting in the commons just looks like one gargantuan exercise in not taking responsibility, in stead saying no to everything that isn't exactly what you want and hoping someone else blinks and votes with you.

[zealo]

Arent you forgetting that the EU also has to agree to extending it? I'm not sure that is even likely to happen...

Correct.

No-deal exit is still the default if they get denied an extension, but also don't vote to actively withdraw Article 50, if May's deal gets voted down again.