On the grounds that the company they referred to (Electoral Calculus / Martin Baxter) to generate the predictions got the
2019 EP elections completely wrong in several key areas.
E.g., their predicted share of the vote for Labour was 24%, in actual fact it was 14%.
They got the 2017 election wrong too, predicting a Tory majority.
And, yep, to follow on from what others have said: that poll is in direct contrast to the YouGov/Times one, literally last week, that put the Lib Dems in the lead on 24%.
Literally, these polls means fuck all.
All Dribbles is doing by placing unwarranted faith in a specific poll (could be right, could be wrong - who fucking knows?) quoted by a right wing Brexiteer economist known for his extreme views on the subject, is to generate a bit more pressure on Tories to elect a Brexiteer PM. To further their swing to the right. No?
Or you think that the prediction Dribbles quoted from the Twitter feed of said right wing economist is actually likely to be accurate?
Coz, I'll happily bet you £100 to a charity of your choice that, no, that indeed won't be the outcome of any forthcoming general election.