“Logic: The art of thinking and reasoning in strict accordance with the limitations and incapacities of the human misunderstanding.”
"Conservative, n: A statesman who is enamored of existing evils, as distinguished from the Liberal who wishes to replace them with others."
Ambrose Bierce
The Bird of Hermes Is My Name, Eating My Wings To Make Me Tame.
Perhaps, perhaps not. Besides things like non-Scots voting (which purportedly swung the vote towards the UK in the most recent referendum), a lot will depend on what's in the hearts of Scots. Is it an actual desire for independence, or just a desire to bitch and moan about the English / Westminster / etc?
True (it's why I've never been fussed about the £39bn "divorce bill" thing), but as a fraction of the EU budget it's considerable, and from what I've heard, people - particularly the Germans - aren't too happy about having to pay it, even if it is a relatively small amount.
Still not tired of winning.
What part of Scotland would be a sovereign nation don't you understand?
1. True, but only after they are in line with what is needed to adopt the Euro. So this will either take some time or will make virtually no difference for Scotland.
2. That depends on their GDP
3. That depends on a number of things.
The Spanish have an issue about parts of a country leaving the country not entire countries leaving a collection of countries. It would not give any precedence for Catalonian independence.
The actual sentiment seems to be to do absolutely everything to keep the Tories in power, by not actually voting for independence, but simultaneously scaring unionist voters in England by threatening it. Virtually everything, from keeping the Tories afloat in 2017, to failing to vote for independence yet returning snp majorities to Holyrood and Westminster, back through to collapsing the Labour government in 1979 and enabling 10 years of Thatcherism, suggests they just adore the tories.
You probably think I'm being provocative or far-fetched. Just watch what they actually do. The only reliable predictor of anything the SNP and the Scots in general have done is that they will prop up the Tories endlessly.
Last edited by Chancery; 2020-02-05 at 02:39 PM.
Yeah it would. Spain is a collection of states itself. Look at this:
Catalonia is one of the main reasons why the EU set the condition that Scotland needs to leave the UK within the constitutional limits of the UK (ie. have Westminster agree to an independence referendum). Once the Scottish achieve that, the Spanish could continue to deny Catalonia their referendum/independence movements within the limits of the Spanish constitution and all would be sorted.
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Essentially if Scotland want to join the EU they'll have to get Westminsters permission to break away from the UK first or the EU will say no, because otherwise they'd be setting the precedent for Catalonia to do the same and Spain really doesn't want that to be on the table.
Is how I interpreted it at least, Slant will be along I'm sure to clarify.
Spain is a curious case in particular because from its inception it's always tended to be a personal union of crowns (vis a visLos Reyes Catolicos) rather than a formalized federation like the United States, Australia, or Germany.
But yes, normally recidivism and separatism are pretty badly advised causes being advocated by grifters. In the case of Scotland, however, it may be a question of national survival.
Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
There is no legal way that Scotland can call a referendum on UK membership without permission from Westminster and there is no incentive for Johnson to grant the needed permission.
And The Prodi Doctrine states that a breakaway state would have to leave the Union and could then only be let back in if it has gained independence in accordance with constitutional law in the member state it left.
Last edited by Pann; 2020-02-06 at 09:04 PM.
Sure, what I meant was if they "did it anyway" the EU would refuse to let them join.
I'm not going to describe what I think "did it anyway" would actually look like but if the will to be independant was rampant in Scotland but Westminster was refusing to allow them I don't know what the recourse would then be. And I'm not trying to suggest it is particularly strong either. At this point I should probably stop typing
There really isn't - Westminster will not grant permission for a referendum, the EU will not consider their membership unless they leave the UK as set out by our legal system and even if they did leave and it was all above board they do not meet the EU membership criteria - I believe SNP's own estimates say that it could be up to a decade before they meet the criteria to be considered for membership.
And where is this will? For the first time (aside from a single instance - I think) since the IndyRef polls are showing a slight lean towards Independence at around 52/48 - hardly conclusive proof that this is what Scotland wants.
What's with the silly last sentence?
- - - Updated - - -
They could do but they live in the real world so they will not.
What part of becoming independent doesn't automatically guarantee you any part of the North Sea oil fields don't you understand? What part of "driving a hard bargain", for that matter?
Might turn some people off it though, no? And require that the Scottish government make spending changes it otherwise wouldn't.
Figures from the Scottish parliament, so I assume they've some idea what they're on about.
No way will the EU give out another rebate. Scotland doesn't have a Maggie Thatcher, or the political / economic clout.
The Catalonians think they're in the same position as Scotland, you realise, and the Spanish government is rightly concerned that others will see it in the same light.
It's less about hypocrisy than about what's legal. Not to mention everyone knows full well the SNP would call just enough referendums to get the result they want, then declare that the binding one. Now in fairness, had the Remoaners won the Brexit referendum I'm sure us Brexiteers would do exactly the same thing, but hey, that's what you get when you allow subordinate political bodies to hold these referendums :P .
Doesn't need to be written to be a constitution. Israel and New Zealand also get along just fine without a written one.
Still not tired of winning.
It is not only Spain that has an issue with breaking up nations in the EU: Splitting a nation in two gives twice as many votes in the Council for the same number of citizens. Imagine for instance Germany breaking up in to individual states but still voting pretty much the same.
Also the entire point of the EU is people working closer together, so if you can't get along as part of a nation that shares most of your culture and language how well are you going to do in a union of almost 30 nations that share rather less?