Mega-Thread: Mueller investigation

[Canpinter]

I wouldn't doubt it at all. Or something like a sealed digital vault, something out of Mission Impossible or similar. Still mildly surprising that they haven't leaked. Mueller has them supposedly. If he does, the House will have them soon enough, and then the world.

And for those of you not paying attention, Trump is terrified of the world seeing those tax returns.

The question is why and i can see only 3 possibility.

A. hes done TONS of really shady deals that while not illegal would really really hurt him politically.
B. Hes not nearly as rich as he claims and that information would tank his main source of income, selling his name brand.
C. The j in Donald J Trump actually stands for Janet.

[DarkTZeratul]

The question is why and i can see only 3 possibility.

A. hes done TONS of really shady deals that while not illegal would really really hurt him politically.
B. Hes not nearly as rich as he claims and that information would tank his main source of income, selling his name brand.
C. The j in Donald J Trump actually stands for Janet.

My guess is some combination of A and B but mostly B.

[Canpinter]

The IRS and their relevant statutes regarding tax returns are beyond draconian. Not only is it a felony just to have them if you are not authorized to be in possession of them, it's likewise a felony to pass them onto someone else. Moreover, it's a felony to make them public as well. All three actions carry a 5 year term of jail and a $250,000 fine.

It's not entirely clear from the law if having received the illegally obtained/possessed tax returns, if publishing them is also illegal (i.e. if someone steals Trump's tax returns and then gives them to the NYTimes, if they can be held liable for publishing them). I think in my example the NYTimes would be criminally liable, but I'm not 100% sure.

I find it fascinating that Trump's returns have not leaked yet.

my understanding is whoever leaks them illegally and the first media outlet to report on them could face legal action but after that it would be safe to report on whats in his tax returns by virtue of it now being public information.

So in theory you could leak to a media outlet outside of U.S. jurisdiction and then they could post it and then all the U.S papers could run with it because they didn't publish the information, they are just reporting on the group that did.

I may be wrong on all that tho.

[cubby]

My understanding is that Congressional Immunity basically would let them drop something like that safely, but I am by no means an expert on this. I'm more of a bird law guy.

https://definitions.uslegal.com/c/co...onal-immunity/

And that's a really good point - one I hadn't considered. I know Congress can subpoena anything, even highly classified material, including the tax returns (not that they are classified of course).

The fastest path I see to getting them is Congress (Pelosi et al) subpoenaing the Mueller Report in it's entirety, and the supporting documentation, including the tax returns. Then taking them public.

- - - Updated - - -

The question is why and i can see only 3 possibility.

A. hes done TONS of really shady deals that while not illegal would really really hurt him politically.
B. Hes not nearly as rich as he claims and that information would tank his main source of income, selling his name brand.
C. The j in Donald J Trump actually stands for Janet.

Lol re "J".

If I had to guess I would say it's a horrific combination of #1 and #2. He has very little real wealth, and he owes everyone under the sun that would still lend to him prior to the campaign. Keep in mind, we already know that Deutche Bank is still owed hundreds of millions of dollars, today - and they are a known Russian money launderer.

- - - Updated - - -

my understanding is whoever leaks them illegally and the first media outlet to report on them could face legal action but after that it would be safe to report on whats in his tax returns by virtue of it now being public information.

So in theory you could leak to a media outlet outside of U.S. jurisdiction and then they could post it and then all the U.S papers could run with it because they didn't publish the information, they are just reporting on the group that did.

I may be wrong on all that tho.

Agreed, that's how I read the statute as well. Someone would go to jail, if they can figure out the electronic trail. But if they can get accurate copies out and to a foreign news service (Pravda anyone? ) then it's fair game to the world, which should still include us americans.

[Breccia]

New York State takes steps to immediately prosecute Manafort the second he's pardoned.

Also, supposedly, NYState's investigation into Manafort pre-dates Mueller's. So it's safe to assume they're equipped and motivated.

[Edge-]

https://apnews.com/f40c695a937c4721bed4037f9ec3f3f8

Welp, AP reporting a DoJ source is telling them the report isn't expected next week. The confusion and waiting continues!

[Shadowferal]

I think someone is getting blue-balled...

[Poopymonster]

I think someone is getting blue-balled...

When his balls were on Pelosi's necklace they were red...

[Breccia]

Welp, AP reporting a DoJ source is telling them the report isn't expected next week.

I figured it was mostly Team Trump saying this. Maybe it was wishful thinking. Maybe they actually got what they thought was good news that turned out to be wrong. Maybe they're just trying to tell their base "it's over, this time, we mean it, also no collusion and Trump has a big penis" so that the rabid fanbase will yell "End the Witch Hunt!" feeling that Mueller lied to them.

Mueller will be done when Mueller says he's done. We should all have learned by now, Mueller doesn't leak and Mueller doesn't play politics.

[Shadowferal]

When his balls were on Pelosi's necklace they were red...

...I'm sure someone saluted the red, white, and blue...

okay that was bad.

[Breccia]

So, who wants to know what "irregularities" Cohen told Mueller about in the Trump Organization's business dealings?

So would I. They're sealed. Apparently, it's something about insurance claims.

[Skroe]

https://apnews.com/f40c695a937c4721bed4037f9ec3f3f8

Welp, AP reporting a DoJ source is telling them the report isn't expected next week. The confusion and waiting continues!

These "Mueller Report is soon" stories almost ALWAYS come from the White House or Team Trump. And it's almost always to anticipate some bad development for them.

I still think the Mueller report is coming in March or April. So it should be wrapping up soon. I think it will happen just before or just after Rosentsein leaves, but I could be wrong. And that happens in March.

[Poopymonster]

These "Mueller Report is soon" stories almost ALWAYS come from the White House or Team Trump. And it's almost always to anticipate some bad development for them.

I still think the Mueller report is coming in March or April. So it should be wrapping up soon. I think it will happen just before or just after Rosentsein leaves, but I could be wrong. And that happens in March.

This is almost like that god botherer who predicts the rapeture happening every few years. And is wrong.

[mvaliz]

These "Mueller Report is soon" stories almost ALWAYS come from the White House or Team Trump. And it's almost always to anticipate some bad development for them.

I still think the Mueller report is coming in March or April. So it should be wrapping up soon. I think it will happen just before or just after Rosentsein leaves, but I could be wrong. And that happens in March.

Welcome back! ^_^

Don't take offense, but I was really hoping you were going to be gone at least one more week as that would insure that the Mueller Report would drop next week on principle! ;P

EDIT: on topic - if you read it correctly, the possibility of the Mueller Report "Dropping" next week is a) stated "as early as next week" is the correct phrasing, so it could be later as you say - and b) by "dropping" it means it's going into I believe Whittaker's hands to approve of it. That's why Dems are already planning on getting Mueller to testify if Whittaker leaves out a single iota from the report.

[cubby]

This is almost like that god botherer who predicts the rapeture happening every few years. And is wrong.

Go ahead and link where Skroe said the Mueller Report would drop earlier than March/April 2019. We'll wait.

Misunderstood. My bad. I'll be on my usual 5 minute time out in the corner.

[masterhorus8]

Go ahead and link where Skroe said the Mueller Report would drop earlier than March/April 2019. We'll wait.

I'm pretty sure he's referring to what the WH is doing, not Skroe.

[cubby]

When his balls were on Pelosi's necklace they were red...

Holy fuck that was the best necklace ever. She has really done well since the Dems slaughtered the Trump GOP in 2018. That necklace was just a very nice touch.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm pretty sure he's referring to what the WH is doing, not Skroe.

Shit - you're right. My bad - editing above.

[Skroe]

Welcome back! ^_^

Don't take offense, but I was really hoping you were going to be gone at least one more week as that would insure that the Mueller Report would drop next week on principle! ;P

EDIT: on topic - if you read it correctly, the possibility of the Mueller Report "Dropping" next week is a) stated "as early as next week" is the correct phrasing, so it could be later as you say - and b) by "dropping" it means it's going into I believe Whittaker's hands to approve of it. That's why Dems are already planning on getting Mueller to testify if Whittaker leaves out a single iota from the report.

I'm going to update my timeline some, because we're moving into the scope of my prediction.

My Last Timeline (posted in September) ANNOTATED.
https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...1#post50164672

I used "a year and a half" in that context there imprecisely. I wrote the below last month. It is my current thinking and is more precise.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...h#post49989415

---- Snip----
(note: the full post, which is big, goes into more detail. It also pre-dates the Manafort deal)

So let me lay out how I think this will go in a kind of narrative format.

Trump is being set up, and like the moron he is, he is walking right into it.

Cohen right now, is the first big hit. The big hits to come are what will come from Manafort's more important SECOND Trial. The verdict for that will land weeks before the 2018 election. We will learn more and more about Manafort's ties to Russia and probably another Trump Tower bombshell.

After the election, in which he loses badly and is panicked about a Democratic House investigating him in 2019, a weakened and increasingly cornered Trump will attempt to assert his authority and defend himself.

He will not fire Mueller (yet). But he will fire Sessions and he will fire Rosenstein. (note: after the election). He will hope that a Republican Senate that has one more seat in 2019 will get him somebody that he wants to be Attorney General... but what he's really doing is buying time, and hoping the Solicitor General, Noel Francisco, will be more favorable to him than Rosenstein. This is a patch, not a plan, and of course, Francisco, who has a long career in government and presumably wants to not wreck himself on Trump, turns out to not be any more favorable than Rosenstein. Remember the first rule of politics: self preservation is king. Nobody will fall on their sword for a defeated Trump (once again, underscoring why a 2018 Democratic victory has ALWAYS been the essential ingredient).

Up to this point, I was 95% correct. Democrats won big, Sessions got fired. Rosenstein very narrowly avoided firing but is leaving in March in a kind of agreed-upon forced-retirement. The Noel Fransisco point went away because out of nowhere, Trump picked a guy nobody anybody new existed, Whitaker, to take over.

The firing of Sessions and Mueller will cause a slow motion constitutional crisis. The lame duck session only has a couple of legislative weeks before the Christmas break. They'll be focused on funding the government for FY2019... something they've been doing but will wrap up then in an omnibus, and will do in earnest because they know that 2019 will be impeachment year. Democrats will be making statements about the planned investigation of Trump once they take over in January. Republicans will say nothing publicly. Behind closed doors, the growing consensus will be: this man has to go next year, so that Pence (or somebody else) can have at least part of 2019 and all of 2020 to stabilize the party's political future (and their own).

I was correct again here. All this stuff has happened, with the introduction of midseason character Whitaker gumming up the works. The unexpected shutdown also played a role, positive in my view, towards the end of removing Donald Trump from office.

The next part deals with the immediate future ahead of us.

I believe January to April 2019 is a critical period. There are a lot of legislative days. For the first time in years, it's looking like there will be no urgency is passing any continuing resolution or the prior year's budget. Rather the budget talk will be of FY2020 and the next 2 year deal (with reference to my prior posts on how those have been wildly successful for both Democrats and Republican interests).

So this is important to highlight, because this did happen thanks to the shutdown. The shutdown occured over just $5 billion in additional wall funding, and Democrats and Republicans alike found a way to make that issue go away, give Trump basically nothing, and then signed into law the budget rest of government as they otherwise would have done before the end of last year.

This is significant for two reasons:
(A) is the first time in about a decade or more that government was funded via individual approporations bills, rather than omnibus bills, indicating a return to the normal budgeting process as dictated by the mid 1970s budget reforms.
(B) it shows that Democrats and Republicans agree in almost every detail what government should be spending money on, even after an election in which power changed hands.

Basically it means, as discussed, Congress is very interested in keeping the flow of federal dollars to state an districts consistent, and really isn't interested in Presidential-level disruptions of it. McConnell indulged Trump once, for 35 days. In a Shutdown he tried to avoid. He wouldn't do it twice. He kids-tabled Trump and worked it out with Schumer and Pelosi.

That means that the environment will be primed for Democrats to be on the offensive on investigating the Trump Administration. And they will do it, aggressively and decisively. Republican defenses, worn down over the prior two years (which couldn't even rally to Trump's defense THIS week) will be basically entirely absent. After two years, the American people's tolerance for Trump bullshit will be at an all time low.

Which is what has happened, and Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen yet again. Thanks shutdown!


And now more of the future

Mueller will deliver his report, I believe, in the Spring of next year. Before Democrats choose to release it, it will be "officially leaked" to the Washington Post or New York Times (officially leaked means: a Senator or Congressmen who has it, authorizes a subordinate to leak it). It will confirm everything we've suspected up to this point: Trump is a de-facto Russian asset and deeply in hock to them, and was in active conspiracy with Russian intelligence to interfere in 2016 (the victory and success was a total accident). And that he has broke campaign finance laws, profiteered, abused power and obstructed justice in the past 3 years (note: predating his election).

Things will move very fast from there. Trump will blame Mueller for the leak and fire him. Democrats will draw up Articles of Impeachment. Centrist-Republicans in the House will join in.

I'm going to make an edit here because when I wrote this, I misunderstood how Mueller sees his role (as investigative, not Prosecutorial). As we've seen since I wrote this especially, Mueller has been outsourcing prosecutions largely to standing parts of the DoJ, rather than doing it in house. This protects them from Trump, but it also means that, once the Mueller report is in, Trump can't fire Mueller because Mueller will be off the case and back in retirement anyway.

In other words, it won't be the SCO as lead by Mueller that prosecute's Trump. It'll be the DoJ and ultimately, in the hands of Congress.

The edit here, in other words, is once the report is sumitted, Mueller won't linger on. His task will be complete and he will go, probably in his own very low key manner, and leave it up to Congress to sort out the next step. This is very similar to what happened with Nixon.

Trump may resign here. If he decides to fight. I believe we're going to have a Democratic-Republican political accommodation, which historically, this country has had many of... yes even in the worst of political environments.

The Mueller report, I believe, will basically accuse Trump of betraying America for personal gain. Not treason as an indictment, but a kind of moral treason. It'll be very hard to defend against. I believe in the Senate, McConnell and Schumer will come to a backroom deal. Rather than vote-your-conscience kind of thing, it's going to be much more a defense-in-numbers kind of thing. Republicans will re-write their history and say that the Mueller firing, among other things, was a bridge too far, and the report so damning, that something must change. Democrats will (largely) not attack their Republicans colleagues over their grossly political and unpatriotic behavior over the prior 2 years (re: the Schumer deal) and focus Trump. Republicans will vote largely as block (defense in numbers) to remove Trump... again, if he doesn't resign. He may resign when he hears of McConnell and Schumer coming to an accord.

Now people looking at this again, probably think I'm nuts in saying two to three dozen Republicans will vote against a Republican President. Again, it's not patriotism. It's self-preservation. They will have just witnessed Trump's touch of death in the 2018 election, and in 2020, many of THEM are up for re-election in the Senate. They won't need Trump anymore for court packing or a tax cut (that won't happen thanks to a Democratic house). And certainly not popularity. The Mueller firing and Mueller report would give them factual cover. The Schumer-McConnell deal would give them a political pressure release valve. Why would they vote to protect Trump? Because Republican voters approve of him? The Mueller-related actions and reports will put a dent in that. So will ending Trump's rep as a winner. So will a series of unhinged actions and statements I'm sure he'll take before then. The Republican Senators will attempt protect themselves from the backlash by taking a decisive, unified and nominally apolitical (although its of course, highly political) action. Defense in numbers.

In the end, Trump gets out of office because of the EXACT same reason he will now, forever, be known as "Individual-1". Because the people who profess loyalty to him are loyal, until the facts change and they need to save themselves. That is true of every man in his administration. That is true of every Senator. They day will come when they don't need him anymore, and if the environment is ripe for them to safely throw him in a woodchipper, they will.

I still think this is how things are going to go.

---- Snip----
In summary, I think there will be:
- some bombshells over the next few months. - CORRECT
- Republicans will badly lose in November, and elected Republicans will blame Trump (even if the base doesn't). - CORRECT
- Rosenstein and Sessions out between election day and mid-December. - PARTIALLY CORRECT (Rosenstein in March)
- Trump will not be able to fill the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General positions, making the Solicitor General the Acting AG through to 2019. - CORRECT except Whitaker and not the SG, which was questionably legal.
- The Democratic House will unleash a torrent of investigations in January, including releasing Trump's tax returns - STILL PENDING (taking longer to stand up investigations than I thought)
- Mueller's report will land around next April-ish, probably via an authorized leak first from Congress. Trump will fire Mueller in retaliation / desperation. - EDITED... Mueller won't / can't be fired.
- Impeachment/resignation action will rev up energetically around April-May-June-July (depending when the Mueller report lands). - STILL PENDING

I've put some error bars on the timeline there for myself for several reasons. First, the Senate skips most of August (it is out of session). And although an impeachment, a matter of great consequence, would change that, I'm being conservative and pushing the most likely time to be some point before August because of that.

The second thing is that Democrats will declare their candidacy for President in 2020 starting in early-mid 2019. At least 4 Democratic Senators are currently on the short list. That means they'll spend much of the second half of 2019 fund raising, building campaign operations, and basically not being in Washington, at the Senate.

The third thing is that October-November-December is the primary debate season for both Parties, and if Republicans are going to be planning the post-Trump era, they'll need to have either Pence, or a field of candidates in place by then in order to make a strong showing in 2020.

This means in my reckoning the first half of the year into July and Early august is the "Prime Time" of events happening with regards to Trump-Russia and Trump's removal. Things could happen at a faster or slower pace within that time frame. But if we start getting into the last quarter of 2019 and even early 2020, it becomes less and less likely Trump get's removed before the 2020 Election. If you had to absolutely corner me, I'd say the dead last date is mid October 2019, but I think the boat will have come and gone long before then and we're looking at a spring / early summer "Moment of Crisis".

The outstanding factor in this though is that the constraints are largely based around a Political timeline, and Mueller isn't following one. So for all we know, he could indict Trump in early 2020, in which case Trump would be an indicted nominee for President. But I doubt it.

We're getting there.

[Michh]

I'm going to update my timeline some, because we're moving into the scope of my prediction.

My Last Timeline (posted in September) ANNOTATED.
https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...1#post50164672



Up to this point, I was 95% correct. Democrats won big, Sessions got fired. Rosenstein very narrowly avoided firing but is leaving in March in a kind of agreed-upon forced-retirement. The Noel Fransisco point went away because out of nowhere, Trump picked a guy nobody anybody new existed, Whitaker, to take over.



I was correct again here. All this stuff has happened, with the introduction of midseason character Whitaker gumming up the works. The unexpected shutdown also played a role, positive in my view, towards the end of removing Donald Trump from office.

The next part deals with the immediate future ahead of us.



So this is important to highlight, because this did happen thanks to the shutdown. The shutdown occured over just $5 billion in additional wall funding, and Democrats and Republicans alike found a way to make that issue go away, give Trump basically nothing, and then signed into law the budget rest of government as they otherwise would have done before the end of last year.

This is significant for two reasons:
(A) is the first time in about a decade or more that government was funded via individual approporations bills, rather than omnibus bills, indicating a return to the normal budgeting process as dictated by the mid 1970s budget reforms.
(B) it shows that Democrats and Republicans agree in almost every detail what government should be spending money on, even after an election in which power changed hands.

Basically it means, as discussed, Congress is very interested in keeping the flow of federal dollars to state an districts consistent, and really isn't interested in Presidential-level disruptions of it. McConnell indulged Trump once, for 35 days. In a Shutdown he tried to avoid. He wouldn't do it twice. He kids-tabled Trump and worked it out with Schumer and Pelosi.


Which is what has happened, and Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen yet again. Thanks shutdown!


And now more of the future


I'm going to make an edit here because when I wrote this, I misunderstood how Mueller sees his role (as investigative, not Prosecutorial). As we've seen since I wrote this especially, Mueller has been outsourcing prosecutions largely to standing parts of the DoJ, rather than doing it in house. This protects them from Trump, but it also means that, once the Mueller report is in, Trump can't fire Mueller because Mueller will be off the case and back in retirement anyway.

In other words, it won't be the SCO as lead by Mueller that prosecute's Trump. It'll be the DoJ and ultimately, in the hands of Congress.

The edit here, in other words, is once the report is sumitted, Mueller won't linger on. His task will be complete and he will go, probably in his own very low key manner, and leave it up to Congress to sort out the next step. This is very similar to what happened with Nixon.



I still think this is how things are going to go..

Er, Trump leaves office a billionaire and enjoys the rest of his life?

[draynay]

Er, Trump leaves office a billionaire and enjoys the rest of his life?

and everyone gets ice cream, Christmas is saved, and Bambi's mom lives