Drop rate statistics for Amanthul's Vision and other Pantheon trinkets

[Forogil]

Interesting - and one obvious question is: how does BLP for Pantheon trinkets work?

It could be that someone at Blizzard decided that: first time it should be 17%, next time 18%, and 8th time 100% - but I doubt that.

The simplest idea would be that each week without trinket increased the chance by x% after some weeks. So roughly 10% more each week starting the fourth week, going from 17% to 27% then to 37%, 47%, 57% (all within the margin of error) - but that is clearly wrong the 8th week. It is also fails to explain why the chance increased slightly already the 3rd week.

After some failed attempts I found a fairly simple formula that almost fits the data - the root of 8th time is the charm!

The chance each week would be max(17%, 100%*(1-root(1-week/8))), with percentages 17%, 17%, 21%, 29%, 39%, 50%, 65%, 100%. It does not seem to be the exact formula, but it may be close to it.

It is not as odd as it may look - since the probability (not percentage) of not getting the trinket, i.e. the bad luck, would be: min(0.83, root(1-week/8)). That looks as something a programmer might add to do "bad luck protection".

[impending doom]

After some failed attempts I found a fairly simple formula that almost fits the data - the root of 8th time is the charm!

The chance each week would be max(17%, 100%*(1-root(1-week/8))), with percentages 17%, 17%, 21%, 29%, 39%, 50%, 65%, 100%. It does not seem to be the exact formula, but it may be close to it.

Someone figured out that the percentage values increase about 30% each time, excluding week 1 and on week 8 it's lifted to 100% because it makes more sense than 80%. If I'd use 16.667% as a starting chance(which is same as 1/6 chance) and multiply that by 1.3 each week it fits very well with the measured results.

[Forogil]

Someone figured out that the percentage values increase about 30% each time, excluding week 1 and on week 8 it's lifted to 100% because it makes more sense than 80%. If I'd use 16.667% as a starting chance(which is same as 1/6 chance) and multiply that by 1.3 each week it fits very well with the measured results.

It does, but there are a number of exceptions in that formula: it excludes the 1st week, and modifies it the 8th week; it seems there can be many other formulas that work as well. However, it seems they use similar formulas in other places.

The more interesting question was whether this holds in general for BLP.

[Cracked]

It does, but there are a number of exceptions in that formula: it excludes the 1st week, and modifies it the 8th week; it seems there can be many other formulas that work as well. However, it seems they use similar formulas in other places.

The more interesting question was whether this holds in general for BLP.

Yes, thanks to the magic of calculus, there are precisely infinitely many formulas that fit the data.

[Deleted]

Just saw the 1st Aman'thuls dropping right now, after more then 2500 chances.
Impressive dropp-rate.

[Jastall]

Yeah, it keeps being rare. My guild kills both Normal and Heroic every week with a mix of main and alts since week 1 and there's still only 1 guy with Aman'Thuls, whereas the epic trinkets drop like candies and I now have 4 of them across 3 characters.

[Vladinator]

I wonder if the tracked characters are still actively clearing the content, might risk having a pool of players bored of the tier.

[daiceman]

I wonder if the tracked characters are still actively clearing the content, might risk having a pool of players bored of the tier.

No, that's not how he is tracking. He's only tracking players who kill it every week, that's why the pool keeps decreasing.

[PraisCthulhu]

The Legendary trinket has an incredibly low drop rate. My guild has killed Argus every week since the raid opened on Normal or above and I'm reasonably certain we've had 0 Aman'thul's drop.

[antelope591]

I think Aman'thul's is blizzard trolling people who say they miss the days of legendaries being rare and hard to get.

[PraisCthulhu]

I think Aman'thul's is blizzard trolling people who say they miss the days of legendaries being rare and hard to get.

I've heard some people saying that during Legion, but the majority of players I've noticed saying they liked the MoP/WoD model best. It was *one* piece of equipment you worked towards and eventually got. It wasn't *rare* per say, but powerful. And everyone of your class had the exact same thing, so it did not create imbalance between players.

[Onikaroshi]

I've heard some people saying that during Legion, but the majority of players I've noticed saying they liked the MoP/WoD model best. It was *one* piece of equipment you worked towards and eventually got. It wasn't *rare* per say, but powerful. And everyone of your class had the exact same thing, so it did not create imbalance between players.

All of them were generic and boring, I hope we never go back to mop/wod legendaries. Having a generic Tank/DPS/Healer one sucked, specially in HFC when the ring was next to trash for Disc but you couldn't wear the dps one like back in mop.

[Deleted]

nice stats u worked out

[Grmmppff]

have seen 2 drop this week, which might ofc just be rng, but it might mean they increased the dropchance a little

[Battlebeard]

Done Argus weekly now since launch, usually in 30man groups, and 0 legendary trinkets. This turned out to be a disaster, considering the Trinket is actually quite bad as well for most classes. The Epic version at 1000 is so crazy much stronger for almost everyone.

The legendary one should have had like 33% drop or so, since it's pretty much a goof trinket, or a slot filler till you get something better. It feels more like a "fun trinket" than a useful one, so to have it being this rare makes no sense.

[Onikaroshi]

Done Argus weekly now since launch, usually in 30man groups, and 0 legendary trinkets. This turned out to be a disaster, considering the Trinket is actually quite bad as well for most classes. The Epic version at 1000 is so crazy much stronger for almost everyone.

The legendary one should have had like 33% drop or so, since it's pretty much a goof trinket, or a slot filler till you get something better. It feels more like a "fun trinket" than a useful one, so to have it being this rare makes no sense.

I wouldn't call being BiS for 12/25 dps specs "bad for most classes"

[Phookah]

I wouldn't call being BiS for 12/25 dps specs "bad for most classes"

It's really not that "BiS" though. For virtually all specs the normal pantheon trinket at ilevel 1000 sims neck and neck with aman'thuls or higher. Not to mention that anyone who isn't done with the tier already anyway has no use for "BiS"

The trinket was really good mostly because if you got it early you instantly had an ilevel 1000 trinket without having to farm argus for 12 weeks or whatever with wildcard panth procs

[Onikaroshi]

It's really not that "BiS" though. For virtually all specs the normal pantheon trinket at ilevel 1000 sims neck and neck with aman'thuls or higher. Not to mention that anyone who isn't done with the tier already anyway has no use for "BiS"

The trinket was really good mostly because if you got it early you instantly had an ilevel 1000 trinket without having to farm argus for 12 weeks or whatever with wildcard panth procs

Well true that it's not super far ahead for all those specs, some of them it's miles away.

And very few guilds are done with prog already so every bit helps

[impending doom]

have seen 2 drop this week, which might ofc just be rng, but it might mean they increased the dropchance a little

I added data for week 11 now, and still no real change in drop rate, only 3 people out of 2558 kills got aman'thul's drop.

[KaPe]

Well true that it's not super far ahead for all those specs, some of them it's miles away.

And very few guilds are done with prog already so every bit helps

"Bit" is the key word, as it's far too rare and not really that powerful. For all the fuss about "third legendary" and supposedly different way we would acquire it, there's really nothing special about it. And the later it drops, the less impressive it gets, seeing how normal trinkets keeps getting better - for two more weeks, that is.