Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Edge-]

On repeat...
U.S. Accuses China of Continuing IP Theft Amid Trade War
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-xi-talks-near

Stock Market Woes Worsen As Trade War Worries Grow
https://reason.com/blog/2018/11/20/s...gain-trade-war

There’s no trade war here. What you’ve got is the early stages of a process which will include tariffs, comments on the tariffs, then ultimate decisions and negotiations. There’s already backchannel talks going on.

[Felya]

I guess to simplify it, if we either continued with Obama's fiscal policy, or went in the opposite with Trump's, the recession was due either way.

What in your clervoyance makes you believe Obama would have passed the same tax cut and initiate the same trade wars, to actually get us to this point? No, I am sorry, we had a recovery under Obama. A recovery that included the consumer protection agency, which Trump gutted.

I am not a fan the trade wars or certain executive actions, but blaming those as a dominant cause for a bear market disregards what has been happening for the past 9 years, and is unfair if not silly.

No, the only way you can claim anything other than Trump’s change of direction, is ignoring the last 9 years.

What I feel is the worse is not discussing what to do during a recession, and instead blaming someone for the recession. Simply put, we are a debter nation, so bubbles and rise to a declining markets are common and put us at risk for strong 'good times' but pretty bad 'bad times' ie riots in the streets and 15+% unemployment. Trump can blame this on immigrants or the Chinese, his opposition can blame it on corruption or the Russians, but this won't mean anything for the everyday person. I feel the best things is for people to be more aware of a negative impact come this spring, especially if there is more federal involvement, it could expedite the recession, or prolong it but make it more severe.

Under Obama, the Great Recession ended, not started. If you want to talk how to stall the recession, removing Trump’s executive orders on trade, would be a great start. Restoring taxes on the top, that Trump decreased, would be a nice added bonus. Cut out out Trump’s excessive spending and we are getting somewhere. How about this for a suggestion... do what Obama did during the Great Recession?

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There’s no trade war here. What you’ve got is the early stages of a process which will include tariffs, comments on the tariffs, then ultimate decisions and negotiations. There’s already backchannel talks going on.

The best part is how he states there is no trade war, then proceeds to make several euphemisms about war. No war... shot fires across... no war... lol

[Dontrike]

I'm not sure this has much to do with Trump, and much more with the continued fiscal policy. Outside of the tax reform, not much has changed with the economy except for overconfidence starting to correct.

So you're just gonna ignore the tariffs, trade wars, and backing out of trade deals for no reason? You do remember we had to bailout farmers because of Trump's dumb ass decision(s), right?

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I guess to simplify it, if we either continued with Obama's fiscal policy, or went in the opposite with Trump's, the recession was due either way.

Do tell how Obama's policy would have lead to a recession? What brings you to that conclusion?

[Felya]

Do tell how Obama's policy would have lead to a recession? What brings you to that conclusion?

Just a reminder... Trump claimed that economy under Obama was the worst. With unemployment upto 45%. This is what he blamed the trade war on and the need for a tax cut to the top. To now claim that this was building under Obama and it was inevitable, is absurd.

Just a week ago, Trump claimed that a recession was coming if democrats win the house. That is not a reaction by a man who either understands what is going on or gives a shit about it. He has an account in a German bank, while we are supposed to be against globalization.

[Kokolums]

The bull market is not over and there is no recession in sight. This is just a correction to be bought.

[Dontrike]

Just a reminder... Trump claimed that economy under Obama was the worst. With unemployment upto 45%. This is what he blamed the trade war on and the need for a tax cut to the top. To now claim that this was building under Obama and it was inevitable, is absurd.

Just a week ago, Trump claimed that a recession was coming if democrats win the house. That is not a reaction by a man who either understands what is going on or gives a shit about it. He has an account in a German bank, while we are supposed to be against globalization.

Most certainly. Trump just spreads lies and fear while understanding nothing of money nor basic math.

The bull market is not over and there is no recession in sight. This is just a correction to be bought.

Seems to be lots of "corrections" during Trump's presidency, many this year alone. Could it be that once he started doing anything economy related that his choices were pure idiocy? Yes.

[Felya]

Seems to be lots of "corrections" during Trump's presidency, many this year alone. Could it be that once he started doing anything economy related that his choices were pure idiocy? Yes.

That’s the fun part... the duration of this correction is now beyond Trump’s policy. The changes he has implemented are not able to maintain the market growth he inherited.

I don’t get all of the defending of Trump either. He detailed his plan of borrowing more than anyone else, because he can default on the debt and renegotiate. This is what he promised and he did tell you the Obama economy was so bad, he needed to tear it down. If you are a Trump supporter, you should be cheering. This is what you elected... it needs to fall more, so Trump can default on US debt. It might end up with you using your money as toilet paper or you have a man that you can trust in such negotiations... gosh... I hope the guy with foreign bank accounts, screaming about evils of globalization, has my best interest in mind...

[Dontrike]

That’s the fun part... the duration of this correction is now beyond Trump’s policy. The changes he has implemented are not able to maintain the market growth he inherited.

I don’t get all of the defending of Trump either. He detailed his plan of borrowing more than anyone else, because he can default on the debt and renegotiate. This is what he promised and he did tell you the Obama economy was so bad, he needed to tear it down. If you are a Trump supporter, you should be cheering. This is what you elected... it needs to fall more, so Trump can default on US debt. It might end up with you using your money as toilet paper or you have a man that you can trust in such negotiations... gosh... I hope the guy with foreign bank accounts, screaming about evils of globalization, has my best interest in mind...

Yep. Folks heard that he'd run it like a business, but they forgot that he'd run it like a Trump business, which means defaulting, bankruptcy, and leaving everyone else that isn't him with the bill as he runs for the hills.

"A man that bankrupted casinos? Fuck yeah, sign me up!" - @Dacien & @Jeezy911...I mean Trump supporters....I mean zealots....I mean "smart" people.

[Felya]

Yep. Folks heard that he'd run it like a business, but they forgot that he'd run it like a Trump business, which means defaulting, bankruptcy, and leaving everyone else that isn't him with the bill as he runs for the hills.

"A man that bankrupted casinos? Fuck yeah, sign me up!" - @Dacien & @Jeezy911...I mean Trump supporters....I mean zealots....I mean "smart" people.

There is a lot of irony in Trump driving around in a Cadillac, as we spend millions bailing him out. While welfare queen is what Reagan had a picture of... no... the welfare queen is not a black woman in a fur coat, driving around in a Cadillac. It’s an orange man in a suit, driving around in a Cadillac.

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There are always corrections. Corrections happen regularly in bull markets. Honestly, you don't sound very knowledgeable about markets to be commenting on them.

You bet... here is another market correction. This one in housing:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit...ket_correction

I think another word for it was the Great Recession...

[Kokolums]

Seems to be lots of "corrections" during Trump's presidency, many this year alone. Could it be that once he started doing anything economy related that his choices were pure idiocy? Yes.

There are always corrections. Corrections happen regularly in bull markets. Honestly, you don't sound very knowledgeable about markets to be commenting on them.

The market is down about 10%.

BUT

The market was down about 20% from May to October 2011. Was that the end of the bull market? No.

The market hit a peak in December 2014 that it couldn't solidly clear until July 2016. The market spent about a year and a half backing and filling. Was that the end of the bull market? No.

Yet here you are going into hysterics about a 10% drop. Calm down. The market is fine.

[Dontrike]

There is a lot of irony in Trump driving around in a Cadillac, as we spend millions bailing him out. While welfare queen is what Reagan had a picture of... no... the welfare queen is not a black woman in a fur coat, driving around in a Cadillac. It’s an orange man in a suit, driving around in a Cadillac.

They fear the poor that don't pay taxes and yet love when the rich don't pay taxes. Watch out, grandma might be able to afford name brand soda this week, but when Trump receives millions from the tax payers to go golfing and passes policies that benefit him greatly suddenly it's "being smart about the tax code".

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Yet here you are going into hysterics about a 10% drop. Calm down. The market is fine.

You must have forgot what happened in January, where the same thing occurred. This isn't the first time this year that this happened. When it's happening this often there's a problem. When Trump talks tariffs and trade wars and the Dow drops 500-1000 those must also be "corrections".

[Kokolums]

The market went up about 50% from february 2016 to february 2018. That's insanely good. That one of the best runs EVER. So what if it spends the rest of 2018 down just 10% after a run like that? The economy is healthy.

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You must have forgot what happened in January, where the same thing occurred. This isn't the first time this year that this happened. When it's happening this often there's a problem. When Trump talks tariffs and trade wars and the Dow drops 500-1000 those must also be "corrections".

Again, you don't know what you are talking about. The market can stay flat for years after a huge runup. YEARS! We spent a year a half between 2014 and 2016 struggling to hit new highs. Then it exploded higher. The market is doing it again since february, which is just nine months. This is nothing. When you post the things you are posting, you sound like someone that doesn't know markets. I've been an investor since the 1980s. I know what's going on. There is no recession coming. This is not a crash. We're down 10%. We could drop 20% and it still wouldn't be a recession.

Your attitude IS how people lose money. They invest emotionally, scream about recessions that aren't there, and panic sell. Then they sit out while the market roars back.

[Felya]

The market went up about 50% from february 2016 to february 2018. That's insanely good. That one of the best runs EVER. So what if it spends the rest of 2018 down just 10% after a run like that? The economy is healthy.

Yes, nothing to do with the tax cut that took effect in January 2018 or the trade wars that followed? By the way... this is the 4th “correction” of 10% or more this year... the market still wants to go up. But, there is this orange baboon that cannot keep his mouth shut.

[Kokolums]

Yes, nothing to do with the tax cut that took effect in January 2018 or the trade wars that followed? By the way... this is the 4th “correction” of 10% or more this year... the market still wants to go up. But, there is this orange baboon that cannot keep his mouth shut.

Again, that's just gibberish. The economy is incredibly strong right now. Corporations are going bananas hiring new workers. Interest rates are healthy. GDP growth is wonderful. You can't just look at a chart and say economic doom. I've seen people like this before. There were people like you in 2011 and in 2016 saying the market was doomed and I'm certain they are kicking themselves for not buying when the market was down. You're just going to be another one of those people.

I disagreed with people like you in 2011, 2016, and today. You can't inject politics into your investing. That's just stupid. No-one should take advice from anyone that argues the market is down because the president is an orange baboon. I don't care if you are left right center up or down. That's the most anti-intellectual thing possible. And its your money, your future, your life. If you really care about money, you'd stop the politics and learn how the economy works.

[Dontrike]

Corporations are going bananas hiring new workers.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *deep breath* AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....okay.

Interest rates are healthy. GDP growth is wonderful. You can't just look at a chart and say economic doom.

Inflation is up. wages are down, GDP growth is less than what was promised, but I guess we can ignore those, sure.

[Felya]

Again, that's just gibberish. The economy is incredibly strong right now. Corporations are going bananas hiring new workers. Interest rates are healthy. GDP growth is wonderful. You can't just look at a chart and say economic doom.

I’m not... nothing I said isn’t reality and I never said we are in a recession or in economic doom. But...

As US recession chances increase, the Fed may deliver fewer rate hikes: Reuters poll
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/as-u...ters-poll.html

The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years, while still low, also nudged up to a median 35 percent from 30 percent in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken Nov 13-19. It held at 15 percent for the next 12 months.

While many developed economies are already slowing, growth in the world's largest economy is still solid, riding the tail-end of a $1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and official unemployment is the lowest in nearly half a century.

But that shine is forecast to start coming off this quarter, with growth slowing more by the end of next year as a trade stand-off with China shows no signs of letting up.

Economists or dude on the internet who has invested since the 80s... who to believe? Confusing times...

[Kokolums]

Economists or dude on the internet who has invested since the 80s... who to believe? Confusing times...

You don't have to listen to me. But do you really want to disagree with all of corporate America that is going on a massive wave of hiring? Do you think they are stupid? Should I listen to you or to the combined expertise of the entire economy? Remember, they saw 2008 coming and implemented a hiring freeze in 2007.......

[Felya]

You don't have to listen to me. But do you really want to disagree with all of corporate America that is going on a massive wave of hiring? Do you think they are stupid? Should I listen to you or to the combined expertise of the entire economy? Remember, they saw 2008 coming and implemented a hiring freeze in 2007.......

No, I am going to refer to the article I posted above and let you argue against that. I am linking my sources...

[Kokolums]

No, I am going to refer to the article I posted above and let you argue against that. I am linking my sources...

I can link all kinds of articles proclaiming a new recession was coming in 2011, 2014, 2016, etc, etc. I'm not going to argue against those every time another batch shows up, there's not enough hours in a day. What's important is if you know what is going on. You either understand the economy or you don't. I don't know what else to tell you. All I can do is bump the thread once the market hit new highs and maybe we can discuss this again once you see you are totally wrong and you are in a more humble state.

[Daethz]

Chart should be changed
Trump -----> Trump after Democrats Win the House (this is when it starts to fall dramatically) oh also when people where projecting they would win the house, also causing pre-election drops.