Russians Are Increasingly Concerned About Western Sanctions and Isolation

[Felya]

We aren't going to admit defeat while we intend to keep fighting, obviously.

Yep, not going to get defeated ever.

The good news, is that you have a leader that is willing to kill off enough journalists, the history written in Russia will be remarkably different than it is everywhere else. It’s already happening... great leader Stalin... lol

[Mormolyce]

And your argument is "It's not coming, la-la-la, our sanctions are working!" ?

Now you're reversing your own argument and arguing against it lol.

You really need to up your game, buddy.

[Shalcker]

The good news, is that you have a leader that is willing to kill off enough journalists, the history written in Russia will be remarkably different than it is everywhere else. It’s already happening... great leader Stalin... lol

It's good thing that "great leader Stalin" is folklore (literally) rather then invention of Putin's media - who are more into "how church is great for unity" and "хруст французкой булки" of pre-USSR Russian Empire.

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Now you're reversing your own argument and arguing against it lol.
You really need to up your game, buddy.

No, my argument never changed. You're overplaying effect of sanctions, and their effect isn't going to last forever.

We already got growth back with sanctions in place, and eventually we're going to be better off then when we started this.

[Mormolyce]

I await the day when Shalcker can simply admit that he lost, rather than trying to argue that he technically didn't lose because he didn't lose by as much as people said he did.

His employers would have to add that line to his script.

If they were better at their job, they would. He'd be more effective if he occasionally took a hit to maintain a shred of credibility.

No, my argument never changed. You're overplaying effect of sanctions, and their effect isn't going to last forever.

We already got growth back with sanctions in place, and eventually we're going to be better off then when we started this.

Respectively: it did, I'm not, they will at the rate you're going; you didn't and you won't.

[Shalcker]

Respectively: it did, I'm not, they will at the rate you're going; you didn't and you won't.

So, what is your projection on how Russian GDP PPP is going to look like in 2018? 2019?

Growing? Shrinking?

Current trend is pretty clear.

[Mormolyce]

So, what is your projection on how Russian GDP PPP is going to look like in 2018? 2019?

Growing? Shrinking?

Current trend is pretty clear.

You won't recover what you lost over the last 5 years, that's my "prediction".

[Shalcker]

You won't recover what you lost over the last 5 years, that's my "prediction".

Well, then there must be another recession somewhere soon enough then.

Preferably global one.

Definitely possible scenario that could delay "recovery" to 2013 levels a year or two.

Without it though we should be there in a year or two at current rate of growth.

[Mormolyce]

Definitely possible scenario that could delay "recovery" to 2013 levels a year or two.

Not so fast, hotshot. It's not getting back to where you were in 2013. It's getting back to 2013 levels plus the losses you took in the last five years. Otherwise you're still in the red.

[Crispin]

Gold reserves protect their currency from USD fluctuations

Fixed that for you. Gold reserves wouldnt protect them from sanctions, excluding them from SWIFT (just an example, not implying that they'll suffer SWIFT sanctions, which they also seem to build an alternative for) is a situation where their gold reserves doesnt help anything.

And as I said earlier. Them buying gold is not an indicator of "everything is fine"

[Shalcker]

Not so fast, hotshot. It's not getting back to where you were in 2013. It's getting back to 2013 levels plus the losses you took in the last five years. Otherwise you're still in the red.

Plus the losses and the gains we took in last 5 years.

"Getting back to where we were in 2013" means being on same level as 2013. Barring crisis that is going to happen in 2019 or 2020.

And then we can meet mid-2020s WW3 with growing economy.

[Mormolyce]

Plus the losses and the gains we took in last 5 years.

You were below 2013 for every year since so those gains were zero lol.

[Shalcker]

You were below 2013 for every year since so those gains were zero lol.

2014 and 2015 were negative gains, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive gains.

If you call that zero you might as well call sanction effect a zero as well.

[Mormolyce]

2014 and 2015 were negative gains, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were positive gains.

If you call that zero you might as well call sanction effect a zero as well.

Are you mathematically illiterate or just a liar?

All of those years were below 2013, meaning that they are all negative with respect to the starting point, ie before the sanctions went in.

How stupid is your usual audience that you think this kind of circumlocution will work? LOL? A primary school student could see through your bullshit.

[Felya]

How stupid is your usual audience that you think this kind of circumlocution will work? LOL? A primary school student could see through your bullshit.

Hey man! Those sanctions mean nothing! It’s about adoption...

[Shalcker]

Are you mathematically illiterate or just a liar?

Are you?

All of those years were below 2013, meaning that they are all negative with respect to the starting point, ie before the sanctions went in.

We aren't talking about absolute values, we're talking about trends. Trends, not absolute values, are what matters in predicting wherever Russia will be or will not be better off in 2019 and/or 2020 then in 2013.

[Mormolyce]

Are you?

We aren't talking about absolute values, we're talking about trends. Trends, not absolute values, are what matters in predicting wherever Russia will be or will not be better off in 2019 and/or 2020 then in 2013.

You really think you can talk your way around basic arithmetic, don't you?

Sorry pal, you've been talking shit for 10 pages and are still at square one.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Not so fast, hotshot. It's not getting back to where you were in 2013. It's getting back to 2013 levels plus the losses you took in the last five years. Otherwise you're still in the red.

Lol, our resident Russia shill apparently seems to think that if Russia rises above 2013 levels, then the sanctions will have "done nothing" when quite literally they lost 5 years of growth and are calling it a win just because they're "back up to" where they were 5 years ago.

God the spin to make it look like a "win" is sad. I bet even our most regular of spinsters would look at this and go "holy fuck how can you possibly spin this, you just look bad".

[Mormolyce]

Lol, our resident Russia shill apparently seems to think that if Russia rises above 2013 levels, then the sanctions will have "done nothing" when quite literally they lost 5 years of growth and are calling it a win just because they're "back up to" where they were 5 years ago.

God the spin to make it look like a "win" is sad. I bet even our most regular of spinsters would look at this and go "holy fuck how can you possibly spin this, you just look bad".

Russian propagandists and their like firmly believe that all facts can be waved away with enough smog and bullshit. It's lesson 1.

[Shalcker]

Lol, our resident Russia shill apparently seems to think that if Russia rises above 2013 levels, then the sanctions will have "done nothing" when quite literally they lost 5 years of growth and are calling it a win just because they're "back up to" where they were 5 years ago.

I never said that they have done nothing.

I only insist that they "haven't done enough for Russia to change it's ways" (proclaimed reason for them to be installed) and aren't going to be effective long-term. Eventually growth will pick up from different direction - and already did in some sectors.

God the spin to make it look like a "win" is sad. I bet even our most regular of spinsters would look at this and go "holy fuck how can you possibly spin this, you just look bad".

Likewise. I look at data and wonder - "Is that really all they hoped for from sanctions? That is pretty weak from what you would expect from two major Western powers - US and EU"

Maybe it really is about nukes hard-capping most dangerous moves. Maybe it is size that makes effective moves too dangerous with global blowback. Maybe it is lack of government debt so limiting capital markets access is far from being critical.

Either way, situation looks stable enough and slowly improving rather then deteriorating from Russian side. Stable enough that they even dare to pull highly unpopular moves like rising pensions age.

[Ulmita]

Lol, our resident Russia shill apparently seems to think that if Russia rises above 2013 levels, then the sanctions will have "done nothing" when quite literally they lost 5 years of growth and are calling it a win just because they're "back up to" where they were 5 years ago.

God the spin to make it look like a "win" is sad. I bet even our most regular of spinsters would look at this and go "holy fuck how can you possibly spin this, you just look bad".

What do you mean nothing? They got Crimea, they got Syria, they got Turkey and a shiton of new customers for their weapon systems (Russia just surpassed UK to grab the 2nd spot for arms exports).

I mean it's a freaking good deal if you ask me.


Kidding aside, threats really do not work with the Russians. We (the EU) need to change the way we think and try to understand what created and what is driving this chasm between us. Cooperation is the ONLY way forward guys. The alternative is very bad news for international stability and prosperity.