Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Paranoid Android]

The states do it by law, and the DNC/RNC have to wrangle with State-level political parties (which can barely be controlled) for some semblance of order.

Basically New Hampshire has a law on the books that says that no state can hold a primary earlier than it. Iowa gets around this by holding a caucus. A few years ago states tried to one up each other and cut in front of New Hampshire (Florida in particular made an aggressive move), which pushed the New Hampshire primary (in theory) into early January. Before that actually happened, the whole mess got sorted and a deal was cut to shape Super Tuesday the way it is (moving California to it) and move Nevada and South Carolina before it in order to diversify the electorate. Florida gets March 17th, earlier than it used to.

There are economic realities to this. Early in the primary season, before any votes are cast, candidates are raising around $8 million - $30 million per quarter, and having near 100% spendthrough. That money can go far in a place like Iowa or New Hampshire... small states with a couple of cities. It wouldn't go very far in a place like Florida or California. In fact in this election, Bernie was the only candidate who went into Super Tuesday with any donated money whatsoever. The rest had pretty much spent it before hand.

So if we were to have a unified national primary day, or let a collection of big states go first, how would it logistically work in terms of election infrastructure? Campaigns wouldn't necessary be able to raise more money to finance that. But equally, Iowa and New Hampshire don't represent much of the country.

It's quite clear, especially after this year, the 40 year old Primary model doesn't really work, and will probably have to be changed before 2024. The problem is that' smuch easier said than done. The DNC can't just mandate it. It can only compel states to make changes by playing them off each other and threatening to suspend them entirely. And that's the part that people miss: The DNC has what it thinks is right, but the Iowa Democratic Party or the Florida Democratic Party, is going to put its own interests first.

New Hampshire can piss off with that law. Yes, two small, white states want to basically throw a festival to boost their economy. The DNC needs to put their foot down and tell both states to piss off.

The only compromise would be to say have first primary/caucus with Iowa and South Carolina on the same day. This is also great because again, campaigning and fawning over one state is exhausting. Yes, as stated above its more about their economy but the big picture is we need candidates to campaign in multiple states from the start. I mean its not like they have the time, most start almost 6 months before Iowa. Of course the other compromise would be 2nd primary of say New Hampshire and Nevada.

Honestly none of the states that don't represent the Democratic Party and honestly the US should be having the first primary.

[Levelfive]

Oh right, my bad. I forgot your hate boner for Sanders which precludes most reasonable conversations. Re-noted.



How do you keep not getting this? There are ample examples of people who CANNOT AFFORD to worry about shit beyond their own immediate concerns. It's not selfishness, it's survival, and it's certainly not a choice in any real sense of the word. Break out of the privilege bubble.

Jesus fuck, everyone else needs to survive too.

[Draco-Onis]

Do they live in large numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona? Or more succinctly, is there enough of them there to put Biden over the top easily enough to make up for the independent-centrists embracing progressives would scare away?

No. There is not. I have watched this in this thread for the past two weeks. You, specifically, wildly over-estimate your leverage. Your arguments have a core flaw: your side doesn't live in the right places. As I said, progressives in Brooklyn can stay home an fuck themselves.

Biden's only question is if he gains more by courting centrists or progressives in those six states, and what is the trade off of one versus the other. And demographic data shows your side would be a poor, poor side to trade for.

You do not have enough people.
You do not live in the right places.

So no. I do not think there will be courting the progressive side. At least not in a meaningful way. Bernie Sanders' entire failed campaign subscribed to the Tinkerbell Theory of politics - that claps... enthusiasm if you will... translated to votes. Biden rolled him state after state after state by ignoring the things people like you said for month and embraced what political experts have said for ages: you rely on voters you KNOW are going to vote, note people you hope are going to vote.

Biden would be making a terrible mistake hoping you people turn out for him. He'd be much better off signing up with old people he *know* will turn out, just like he has up to this point.

Progressives bet big and lost. Now they get to deal with the consequences.

Okay so start your campaign PROGRESSIVES FUCK OFF WE DON'T NEED YOUR VOTE - Biden 2020

You can also start the inauguration now saint Biden will win by a landslide.

[JohnBrown1917]

Obama, and how in 2008-2016 we didn’t have to think about politics every second of everyday, because we’d have a person in charge that will surround himself with quality subject matter experts and will delegate them to do their thing.

More than anything else, that’s what I want. I don’t want revolution, I don’t want free college, I just want to get back to sanity.

Those politics still had a very negative effect on a lot of people, people not caring about politics is what pushes a country to the right,.

[Machismo]

Precisely. No giving into hostage taking. The stakes are too high.

If Sanders supporters want to stay home, fuck 'em. Just remind them that we'll probably see RBG's funeral at the national cathedral before 2024.

Because those are the stakes. Every day they are gambling an 87 year old woman who has had repeated bouts of cancer wakes up and doesn't give John Roberts a 6-3 majority.

It's gonna be a bit hard to advance M4A when that 6-3 majority bulldozes the administrative state.

So yeah. Dare them to stay home. Smile and tell them "you do you, amigo" in the most dismissive way possible. They don't get shit. They vote or they stay home. Regardless, they are unreliable and shouldn't be counted on to show up.

Sanders is a populist, and his supporters are zealots. In reality, that makes them single-issue voters, but the "issue" is that the want Sanders, no matter what. Trump was free to pull his bullshit, because he has a SCOTUS majority, and the Senate. That makes him a dictator with no actual oversight, for all intents and purposes. It becomes even worse, if RBG is gone, as Roberts is a moderate conservative, as opposed to shitheads like Thomas or Gorsuch.

Conservatives sold their fucking souls in 2016 for a couple SCOTUS picks. They oped for a less-moral, less-conservative version of Bill Clinton. Never let them live it down, fucking bury them with it for the rest of their lives. Stop treating them like they even deserve to be in your life. Stop letting them around your kids. Stop inviting them anywhere. Stop taking their calls.

if Bernie supporters want to act like Trump supporters, then treat them the same.

- - - Updated - - -

And this is one reason why it's demoralizing. Many voters simply feel like their voice don't matter. If you don't live in certain states, you don't hold much influence or power. It really only matters in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan for the primaries. And like it was stated before: Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin for the primaries.

As a Marylander, my primary isn't until April 28 and there are states that don't participate until June. June! Why is this acceptable? I have been much more involved in politics than I ever have been and the more I learn, the more I realize just how screwed up our system is. And it's giving me a headache. But what I have learned that there is a generational gap that has to be addressed soon or it will be irreparable. My generation has been heavily screwed thanks to the politics of previous ones and for many, see little hope or optimism for the future.

Biden is Captain Placeholder <Boat Operator> in Menethil Harbor in real life. He's just there to keep the seat warm. His policies imo are just, "I was Vice President when Obama was in office", and our voting base is just accepting this as perfectly fine. I am not expecting instant changes, but damn man... At least stand for more than that. And listening to him speak for more than 30 seconds without cringing is becoming more rare nowadays. I want my presidents to at least stand on their own two feet without tripping over them while sitting down. SMH.

I agree, most voices don't actually matter. It's why I hate the EC so fucking much.

[Draco-Onis]

Sanders is a populist, and his supporters are zealots. In reality, that makes them single-issue voters, but the "issue" is that the want Sanders, no matter what. Trump was free to pull his bullshit, because he has a SCOTUS majority, and the Senate. That makes him a dictator with no actual oversight, for all intents and purposes. It becomes even worse, if RBG is gone, as Roberts is a moderate conservative, as opposed to shitheads like Thomas or Gorsuch.

Conservatives sold their fucking souls in 2016 for a couple SCOTUS picks. They oped for a less-moral, less-conservative version of Bill Clinton. Never let them live it down, fucking bury them with it for the rest of their lives. Stop treating them like they even deserve to be in your life. Stop letting them around your kids. Stop inviting them anywhere. Stop taking their calls.

if Bernie supporters want to act like Trump supporters, then treat them the same.

Yea that's the wrong way to put it Hillary thought the same thing and look at what happen if Biden does an outreach by being a little more progressive he will win their votes. I am not saying he needs to become Bernie but there is a wide gap between them to move in.

[JohnBrown1917]

What a surprise, a lot of youth vote suppression happened again.

Sanders is a populist, and his supporters are zealots. In reality, that makes them single-issue voters, but the "issue" is that the want Sanders, no matter what..

Want anybody who has his policies*

But hey, its clear the dems have no room for left-wing politics.. only conservative ones[the GOP is fascist]. The dems would do good to just stop pretending and not try to get people on the left to vote for them.

[Machismo]

Sanders only plays the crowd at town halls, so kind of irrelevant. I would have preferred him to drop before this but it might be healthy to have one more debate. I'd rather steel up Biden in advance of the general election.



You want votes, give people a reason to vote. This isn't about some strawmany nonsense about holding the election hostage. I've made myself abundantly clear and it has nothing to do with "Sanders lost so I'm not voting for Biden".



Lol. If the stakes are too high, why the FUCK would you ever want to "dare" people to not vote or just write off a portion of the voter base?

I don't understand why people are so eager to help Trump win.



Oh right, my bad. I forgot your hate boner for Sanders which precludes most reasonable conversations. Re-noted.



How do you keep not getting this? There are ample examples of people who CANNOT AFFORD to worry about shit beyond their own immediate concerns. It's not selfishness, it's survival, and it's certainly not a choice in any real sense of the word. Break out of the privilege bubble.

Getting rid of Trump is the reason to vote. Stopping his racist agenda is the reason. Pushing against their version of national socialism is the reason to vote.

Plenty of Sanders voters are unreliable. Barely a majority said they would vote for Biden, if Biden wins the nomination. That's not reliability, that's a wild card, and a risk the DNC shouldn't take. Hell, 8% even said they'd vote for Trump if Biden wins...

[JohnBrown1917]

Yea that's the wrong way to put it Hillary thought the same thing and look at what happen if Biden does an outreach by being a little more progressive he will win their votes. I am not saying he needs to become Bernie but there is a wide gap between them to move in.

Its too late for Biden now, his history and primary campaign are hard to ignore.

[Machismo]

What a surprise, a lot of youth vote suppression happened again.




Want anybody who has his policies*

But hey, its clear the dems have no room for left-wing politics.. only conservative ones[the GOP is fascist]. The dems would do good to just stop pretending and not try to get people on the left to vote for them.

The Democrats have plenty of progressive policies. Now, you may not get this, because you don't live in The United States.

[kaelleria]

I'm going to quote myself all the way back from page 1 of this thread.

You don't answer a question about race relations with your standard down with corporations stump speech and have people respond to it. He had the opportunity to show he's grown since 2016. The debate has shown he hasn't. He's going to get demolished outside of Iowa and NH this go around.

This turned out mostly accurate minus NV and really makes you question whether the Bernie camp will ever get it.

[Machismo]

Yea that's the wrong way to put it Hillary thought the same thing and look at what happen if Biden does an outreach by being a little more progressive he will win their votes. I am not saying he needs to become Bernie but there is a wide gap between them to move in.

Hillary lost, because she's an unlovable asshole, and a terrible human being.

Biden and the DNC have offered outreach on issues. Hell, the ACA exists because of that outreach. Medicare For All is not going to happen, because the electorate doesn't like the idea of "socialism." It's all about marketing and branding, and the Democrats (especially Bernie) suck at it. The vast majority of voters are ignorant morons who pay more attention to memes and fake news on Facebook, than they do on actual substance.

[Vash The Stampede]

The numbers tonight in Michigan show it clearly: Biden and Clinton, who have the same policies almost to the tee, against the same opposition.........and Biden massively outperformed her.

Now, maybe you can argue what they didn't like about Clinton as compared to Biden - the made-up scandals, the stink of Bill's infidelities, or her sex - but it wasn't her policies, and it wasn't her status as "The Establishment."

In 2016 we had to elect Hillary Clinton because she would have been the first female president, though you could say the same thing about Elizabeth Warren but it seems nobody cares now in 2020. Now we have to elect Joe Biden because we have to remove Trump. It seems we can't elect a Democrat based on their morals, history, and policies but because we have a righteous thing that needs to be done. Trump will chew Biden up and spit him out, because Joe Biden has made some shit choices throughout his political career, much like Hillary Clinton.

[Paranoid Android]

Yes, New Hampshire can kick boulders with that stupid law stating that no other state can hold primaries before them. But what we can do is if New Hampshire is opening their doors to vote at 11:00 AM, then other states can open theirs at 11:01 AM on the same day. They can screw a big one if they cry about that. The state is not representative to me or anyone I know and their influence is destroying what ever you define as democracy we think we have.

Totally agree.

As you stated out of spite I would add 3 to 4 states that day to crush the NH primary. That way they become so insignificant

[Machismo]

In 2016 we had to elect Hillary Clinton because she would have been the first female president, though could say the same thing about Elizabeth Warren but it seems nobody cares now in 2020. Now we have to elect Joe Biden because we have to remove Trump. It seems we can't elect a Democrat based on their morals, history, and policies but because we have a righteous thing that needs to be done. Trump will chew Biden up and spit him out, because Joe Biden has made some shit choices throughout his political career, much like Hillary Clinton.

Trump is a fucking rapist and a racist.

Trying to pull the morality card seems foolish.

[JohnBrown1917]

In 2016 we had to elect Hillary Clinton because she would have been the first female president, though you could say the same thing about Elizabeth Warren but it seems nobody cares now in 2020. Now we have to elect Joe Biden because we have to remove Trump. It seems we can't elect a Democrat based on their morals, history, and policies but because we have a righteous thing that needs to be done. Trump will chew Biden up and spit him out, because Joe Biden has made some shit choices throughout his political career, much like Hillary Clinton.

Biden will have it way worse with his dementia.

[Grapemask]

I'm going to quote myself all the way back from page 1 of this thread.




This turned out mostly accurate minus NV and really makes you question whether the Bernie camp will ever get it.

My biggest problem with Sanders is that he is absolutely miserable at discussing his platform in depth. I can't tell if it's just because he is an unrelenting subscriber to the classic Washington line "if you're explaining it, you're losing it," but saying the same five lines is a tough sell to people who aren't already aware of the content behind it.

[Draco-Onis]

Hillary lost, because she's an unlovable asshole, and a terrible human being.

Biden and the DNC have offered outreach on issues. Hell, the ACA exists because of that outreach. Medicare For All is not going to happen, because the electorate doesn't like the idea of "socialism." It's all about marketing and branding, and the Democrats (especially Bernie) suck at it. The vast majority of voters are ignorant morons who pay more attention to memes and fake news on Facebook, than they do on actual substance.

The ACA is a republican market based solution it's fuck all of an outreach, I specifically said they can meet in the middle he doesn't have to go with medicare for all.

[JohnBrown1917]

Trump is a fucking rapist and a racist.

Trying to pull the morality card seems foolish.

Biden is also racist, and will be just as horrible for the muslim population if we go by who he put into charge of his muslim outreach.

[tyrlaan]

Jesus fuck, everyone else needs to survive too.

Um, yeah. I get that. Why don't you get what I'm saying?

Until you do, I'm kind of over trying to break past your privilege.

Sanders is a populist, and his supporters are zealots. In reality, that makes them single-issue voters, but the "issue" is that the want Sanders, no matter what. Trump was free to pull his bullshit, because he has a SCOTUS majority, and the Senate. That makes him a dictator with no actual oversight, for all intents and purposes. It becomes even worse, if RBG is gone, as Roberts is a moderate conservative, as opposed to shitheads like Thomas or Gorsuch.

Conservatives sold their fucking souls in 2016 for a couple SCOTUS picks. They oped for a less-moral, less-conservative version of Bill Clinton. Never let them live it down, fucking bury them with it for the rest of their lives. Stop treating them like they even deserve to be in your life. Stop letting them around your kids. Stop inviting them anywhere. Stop taking their calls.

if Bernie supporters want to act like Trump supporters, then treat them the same.

Meh, this is such a tired argument.

I'm a Bernie supporter and you damn well better believe I'll be voting for Biden in November. Thinking Sanders supporters are unreachable is just lazy and introduces unnecessary risk. But again, people seem hell bent on helping Trump win for some reason.

Plenty of Sanders voters are unreliable. Barely a majority said they would vote for Biden, if Biden wins the nomination. That's not reliability, that's a wild card, and a risk the DNC shouldn't take. Hell, 8% even said they'd vote for Trump if Biden wins...

I guess that "big tent" doesn't apply unless you can afford the cover charge, amirite?