How big do you think the dropoff will be and when?

[Littleraven]

I feel like after the initial release when everyone is just checking it out the numbers are going to plummet. That said I feel like it will steadily find it's main audience and then grow again to a healthy number.

A lot of people who never actually played back then are going to check it out, realize it's a totally different game and probably bounce out after they realize they can't hit level 30 in a few hours. I think that will make the game better though as it will weed out all the people who never intended to actually enjoy it anyway.

[Ragnarohk]

What lol? Wrath was basically classic up until the end patch where they introduced group finder.

There is a huge amount of people that miss the old style gameplay of the original trilogy, again the question of how popular it becomes depends wholly on how many people get the itch to return.

Wrath was no Classic. Classes weren't broken as hell. You could actually play all specs in a viable manner. The storytelling and narrative also evolved. Content had various difficulties, etc, etc. QoL changes were big in WotLK.

My point in my original post was that Classic won't overrun Retail. WotLK might (if they ever go down that road)

[schwarzkopf]

Since it is coupled in with the regular monthly fee, I bet a fuckton of people are going to play both versions of the game.

Yep - I think people will play vanilla over a longer period of time, rather than the short spurts of play that live gets.

[garicasha]

Christmas / NYE 2020 will be the benchmark. It'll be when the masses playing 10-15 hours a week start hitting 60, and they'll have a few days off to finish out the last 2-3 levels.

There will honestly be 3-4 small dropoffs. One by level 20, one on PvP servers where they hit Stranglethorn Vale, one at 40, and then IMO the worst part of the game is 48-60, level 53 is the worst because you have so far to go and that bar doesn't move much when you kill a boar.

[Fascinate]

Wrath was no Classic. Classes weren't broken as hell. You could actually play all specs in a viable manner. The storytelling and narrative also evolved. Content had various difficulties, etc, etc. QoL changes were big in WotLK.

My point in my original post was that Classic won't overrun Retail. WotLK might (if they ever go down that road)

Paladins were viable in vanilla, just not optimal....people tend to get those words confused a lot. And while wrath probably does have more broad appeal than classic you also have to take into consideration how many people started post vanilla that want to go back and try that version of the game.

[Kyphael]

I dont get this line of thinking, the grind in BFA is much less rewarding than classic yet people still play. In classic not only do you have the carrot on a stick mechanics of new spells/abilities/talents while you level you also have the chance of getting a BoE epic that could pay for your mount and then some.

I leveled my first toon in early Wrath before huge quality of life changes gradually trickled in. I experienced a lot of learning new ranks for spells every few levels, if that's supposed to entice me, eh. Yes, BfA has terrible grinds, especially pertaining to flight, but unlocking a race after a month of grinding is still better than new waiting 40 levels to be able to even ride my horse. And even then... supposedly I won't even have enough gold to ride when I hit 40 from spending so much on spell ranks.

I'm not ragging on Classic, I'm looking forward to it, but I trully will be taking my sweet time because leveling itself in it without heirlooms and mounts is a hell of a grind from what I recall, and my experience in Wrath was definitely easier than pure Classic, I'd imagine.

[digme]

who cares how many ppl will playing classic. Iam gonna play it, and iam gonna luv it I played the closed beta till the end, and it was soo cool. Iam not a bfa fanboy

[Gavll]

I'm expecting about a 90% drop-off in the first month or two and about 90% of those remaining to quit within 6 months.

So you think only 1% of people who try it will be playing after 6 months? Even if every retail player tried it (~3m), you're suggesting only 30k will be playing in 6 months. There's more people than that playing PServers.

I agree there will be a big surge and drop off, all probably in the first month but I'd expect a much higher percentage of those who get beyond 20 to stay.

[Hexme]

Classic will have less of a drop off than BfA which is gonna be sad.

[MiiiMiii]

What really sucks is that Blizzard will never tell us how successful or unsuccessful this is. They will keep hiding their sub numbers and will never admit that Classic has more players than Retail. The only sign we will get if it was huge, is their next Classic related announcement. Be it TBC or Classic+ or pushing the philosophies of Classic into other games like Retail and Diablo. One thing is for sure, we won't get any hint on the success for several years.

I think the launch will be unplayable for certain servers, and no queue for others. Stay away from streamer servers if you want to play on launch, but in general, just stay away from those servers.

I think at launch and when all these streamers and youtubers will give it publicity, it will be HUGE. The biggest game by far from Blizzard.

Fast forward 2 weeks. A lot of people will quit, but a lot of people will keep showing up. The reputation compared to launch will be at 70% of launch.

Fast forward 6 months. Reputation is now at a steady 40% of what it was on launch. If you want to say that means the game failed, that is just wrong. This is how it is with most games.

Fast forward 6 more months. Reputation is now at 50% of what it was on launch. People are getting into the game due to word of mouth and not many are quitting.

Fast forward to 4 months after Naxx has been out. People are complaining. There is nothing to do. They demand "fresh" servers, or new content. What happens here, time will tell.
They better have a smart plan at this point, but knowing Blizzard and their pride in the 15 years of downgrades they have done to Retail, they won't have a smart plan and they will let it die, then tell us "we told you so".
My guess? New servers starting on phase 1. If they do this, kiss your old server goodbye, it will become a ghost town soon. If they keep adding new servers like this, people will get the same problem they have with Retail. All your hard work don't feel like an investment but a waste of time because in x months a new server will start.

[DarkAmbient]

BFA crowd is tiny in comparison to the millions upon millions that miss how the game used to be, the question is how many decide to come back.

I don't now how true that is, to be honest. I realise we're just pulling numbers out of our arse here, but this guy seems to have done a fair job of estimating how many people are/were playing WoW private servers and the number he came up with his 1.3 million active accounts. We have to bear in mind that not all those servers are vanilla.

Some of those people will be playing because it's free. Some might be retail players with an active sub who miss the old expansions. Some could be diehard classic fans who won't play anything else. Some could be playing because of x5 xp rates or insta max level. But if the number of people motivated enough to play on private servers is around half that of BfA players, I really wonder how many will be prepared to pay the sub fee for classic.

[Aehl]

However, the 25,000 to 50,000 players who stay will be very active.

Is a better estimate.

Classic is a major timesink, and the demographics of today arent what they were in 2004. The days of some pimplefaced teenie hunched over his keyboard with all the time in the world to waste are dead and gone.

Average player is in their 30's with real jobs and real lives.

- - - Updated - - -

Some of those people will be playing because it's free.

The majority of them play because its free. When faced with paying money they balk and say no, why should i pay for it.

[vsb]

1000 players will create level 1 characters.
500 players will level to level 10.
100 players will level to level 20.
80 players will level to level 30.
60 players will level to level 40.
20 players will level to level 60.
10 players will continue to play.

[Gorsameth]

80% drop off after the first 2 months, maybe after 1

[Aehl]

80% drop off after the first 2 months, maybe after 1

More than likely. People dont have that kind of time to throw away anymore.

[MiiiMiii]

More than likely. People dont have that kind of time to throw away anymore.

Exactly why would people not have "that kind of time to throw away anymore"?

What changed? If anything, people have MORE time to "throw away".

[Aehl]

Exactly why would people not have "that kind of time to throw away anymore"?

What changed? If anything, people have MORE time to "throw away".

Go look up gamer demographics. Then come back and tell me.

[Vorkreist]

Blizzard will very likely not tell you how many ppl are in Classic and how many in Retail

Exactly. It would be like making retail subs public again. Just another mega highlight of how much retail sucks since theres barely a mil at best still playing.

[MiiiMiii]

Go look up gamer demographics. Then come back and tell me.

I looked it up and I am back to tell you again. If anything, people have MORE time to "throw away".

[crusadernero]

It will be very interesting to see if classic once again can capture the heart and minds of young gamers today, like it did back then. So much has happend since wow launched in the gaming world and MMORPGs certainly aint on the top anymore. When Blizzard launched wow 15 years ago it changed everything in the MMORPG scene and pumped fresh air into it.

Fast 15 years later, alot of what made wow good back then is hard to find in current retail. One could argue that Blizzard had to do many changes to the game, in order to stay on top with sub numbers, adapt to the ever shifting gaming world and all that. If you look at the income they had and have, they did something right I guess. Does retail feel like a MMORPG today? No, I dont think so.

Me, like many others that played classic back in the day, will for sure try it out. But I predict alot of us that played back then will treat it differently this time than 15 years ago. We are older, we have jobs, kids, wife, other hobbies and maybe a general less notion of putting 8+ hours a day into classic like we once did. Afterall, we did all that back then. BUT, we still like to play games. Personally I will play classic at my own pace, and if that means 5-10 hours a week, thats fine. I know now that the journey is often better than the destination and I will just enjoy ever zone and level. The stuff at max level is there waiting anyway.

Anyway, on topic - Ofc theres going to be a huge influx on players at launch, its going to be utter chaos and will be fun to observe. I doubt most of these players will stick around all the way to lvl 60, but we just gotta wait and see. The outcome will be very interesting and can infact shape and form the future of MMORPGs, once again.

Also, I think alot of people will just mess around in classic when retail is in a content drought. A perfect place to have some fun in the same universe.