Canadian Election Night: 2019

[jellmoo]

Any other Canadians morbidly curious as to how the election results will play out tonight? I voted in an advance poll, so I don't have first hand knowledge of what poll lines are like tonight. I'm curious to see if we'll have a high (for us) turnout.

I'm pretty much a leftie, and feeling that the best case scenario for the country is a minority Liberal government propped up by the NDP, but this one is going to be a nailbiter until the very end I think.

[Tojara]

I live in the boonies in Nova Scotia, where most of the population is old as fuck, therefore there was a lot of people there voting lol.

It will probably be a liberal minority government though.

[jellmoo]

I live in the boonies in Nova Scotia, where most of the population is old as fuck, therefore there was a lot of people there voting lol.

It will probably be a liberal minority government though.

It seems like it's going that way, but seat distribution is a funny thing. It may very well come right up to the very end with the seats in BC making all the difference.

[Jastall]

Anything other than a Liberal minority would surprise me. Trudeau just didn't impress during his mandate or campaign, but on the other hand the Conservative and NDP offerings are quite meager. I expect a far lower turnout than in 2015.

As to what kind of minority, I truly cannot say. It would be interesting if the NDP and/or Bloc have the balance of the majority in their hands.

[jellmoo]

The saddest part is that "being unimpressed with a mandate" almost feels like an accomplishment, given the current political state of some of the other countries we are friends with.

But I absolutely agree that inspiration from political leaders has been in a very short supply.

[Corvus]

Not being a Canadian, could someone fill me in on where the main parties sit on the spectrum? Am I correct that from right to left it goes Conservative-Liberal-NDP-Green? I'm just not sure where Bloc Quebecois fits.

[Seiklis]

Well Liberals got at least their liberal minority according to CBC

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1186465398109196290

[jellmoo]

Not being a Canadian, could someone fill me in on where the main parties sit on the spectrum? Am I correct that from right to left it goes Conservative-Liberal-NDP-Green? I'm just not sure where Bloc Quebecois fits.

It goes kind of like this:

Right = People's Party (largely a non factor)
Center Right = Conservatives
Center Left = Liberals
Left = NDP & Green (how far depends on the issue)

The Bloc Quebecois is... Odd. They are leftists socially, skew fiscally conservative in some ways. Their identity is largely tied to Quebec rights and independence so they don't really have a fully fledged platform on a lot of issues.

- - - Updated - - -

Well Liberals got at least their liberal minority according to CBC

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1186465398109196290

Yup, though some of the numbers might change around a bit. But if they end up shy of 170, it looks like the NDP will have the chance to play kinngmaker. Curious if they'll have an official coalition.

[xChurch]

A contest between a giant douche and a turd sandwich if I ever saw one. I really don't like Trudeau since he has basically done nothing of note since becoming PM short of legalizing weed which despite taking years is still not fully fleshed out. That being said, nothing getting done with Trudeau is still vastly better than going backwards with Scheer so I still prefer that he wins. A Liberal/NDP Coalition might actually the best way forward but those usually don't have the best track records.

[Milchshake]

I wonder if all these "The US needs a third party" people are paying attention?

Sorry, but i'm not convinced that multi-party parliamentary systems are that much better the the kludge of the US system. They're just as likely to elect either a neo-liberal or a conservative governments.

Canada's last election produced a neo-liberal victory.
The UK's parliamentary elections keeps producing a clown car of Tory governments.
France's last parliamentary election was between a neo-liberal or a neo-fascist.


le sigh

[Belize]

A contest between a giant douche and a turd sandwich if I ever saw one. I really don't like Trudeau since he has basically done nothing of note since becoming PM short of legalizing weed which despite taking years is still not fully fleshed out. That being said, nothing getting done with Trudeau is still vastly better than going backwards with Scheer so I still prefer that he wins. A Liberal/NDP Coalition might actually the best way forward but those usually don't have the best track records.

Bring back Jean Chrétien! *shakes fist at younguns*

[Seiklis]

I wonder if all these "The US needs a third party" people are paying attention?

Sorry, but i'm not convinced that multi-party parliamentary systems are that much better the the kludge of the US system. They're just as likely to elect either a neo-liberal or a conservative governments.

Canada's last election produced a neo-liberal victory.
The UK's parliamentary elections keeps producing a clown car of Tory governments.
France's last parliamentary election was between a neo-liberal or a neo-fascist.


le sigh

It's not just 3rd party. It's more parties with some sort of instant ranked system. So long as FPTP is the law, 3rd parties are nothing more than spoilers even in Canada's system.

Maine Federal Elections have it right

[Zaktar]

I wonder if all these "The US needs a third party" people are paying attention?

Sorry, but i'm not convinced that multi-party parliamentary systems are that much better the the kludge of the US system. They're just as likely to elect either a neo-liberal or a conservative governments.

Canada's last election produced a neo-liberal victory.
The UK's parliamentary elections keeps producing a clown car of Tory governments.
France's last parliamentary election was between a neo-liberal or a neo-fascist.


le sigh

No system is robust enough to factor out human ignorance and foolishness.

[Corvus]

The Bloc Quebecois is... Odd. They are leftists socially, skew fiscally conservative in some ways. Their identity is largely tied to Quebec rights and independence so they don't really have a fully fledged platform on a lot of issues.

So sort of a bit like the SNP over in Scotland?

Who are they more likely to side with if there was a hung parliament?

[Jastall]

A Liberal minority with the NDP holding the keys to the majority looks to potentially be on the horizon, and that's my personal favorite scenario as that might force Trudeau to actually act on his declarations.

Maxime Bernier being beaten in his own county pleases me. Get lost, mini Trump.

[Seiklis]

A Liberal minority with the NDP holding the keys to the majority looks to potentially be on the horizon, and that's my personal favorite scenario as that might force Trudeau to actually act on his declarations.

Maxime Bernier being beaten in his own county pleases me. Get lost, mini Trump.

Well Alberta is a Conservative romp. I think it's time to stop calling it the Texas of Canada at this point, it's more of a Missouri

Also question for the people who know Canada. Is the amount MPs of each providence determined by a 10 year census? And if so, is inner Canada losing or gaining people? (Alberta, Sask and Manitoba)

[jellmoo]

So sort of a bit like the SNP over in Scotland?

Who are they more likely to side with if there was a hung parliament?

Kinda? I'm not terribly familiar with the intricacies of the Scottish independence movement, but probably similiar but less interested in the country as a whole.

More likely to side Liberal than Conservative, but will almost certainly demand huge concessions for Quebec if they are to support anything.

- - - Updated - - -

A Liberal minority with the NDP holding the keys to the majority looks to potentially be on the horizon, and that's my personal favorite scenario as that might force Trudeau to actually act on his declarations.

Maxime Bernier being beaten in his own county pleases me. Get lost, mini Trump.

Yeah, that's what I've been hoping for. If they have a formal coalition, having somebody to keep the Liberals honest will help a lot.

And I have a huge smile over Bernier losing.

- - - Updated - - -

I wonder if all these "The US needs a third party" people are paying attention?

Sorry, but i'm not convinced that multi-party parliamentary systems are that much better the the kludge of the US system. They're just as likely to elect either a neo-liberal or a conservative governments.

Canada's last election produced a neo-liberal victory.
The UK's parliamentary elections keeps producing a clown car of Tory governments.
France's last parliamentary election was between a neo-liberal or a neo-fascist.


le sigh

What a multiple party system is supposed to do is create checks and balances. Often, it just results in either anything but the two main parties not mattering, or a minority government that fractures in a year and a half.

For my money, the bigger issue in Canada is the way the parliamentary system works. My riding in Quebec was favoured to be won by Liberals by a three to one margin over the next closest competitor. In essence, my vote utterly doesn't matter. Because we only vote for the MP of our riding, and not the party or party leader, depending on where I live my vote essentially may have zero value.

[Corvus]

Paid a visit to the Elections Canada website to look at the results - it is listing the conservatives as ahead in the votes by 0.5% over the liberals but well behind in the seats by 11%.

There are still a lot of votes to count though - I know over here in Australia the smaller rural booths get counted first and the larger city ones come in later which means the vote trends to the left the longer the counting goes on. Does the same happen over in Canada?

[jellmoo]

Paid a visit to the Elections Canada website to look at the results - it is listing the conservatives as ahead in the votes by 0.5% over the liberals but well behind in the seats by 11%.

There are still a lot of votes to count though - I know over here in Australia the smaller rural booths get counted first and the larger city ones come in later which means the vote trends to the left the longer the counting goes on. Does the same happen over in Canada?

Polls close on the East coast first, so votes tend to get counted East to West more than anything else. Canadian population is so centered around the big cities that hug the American border that rural votes are largely a non-factor. As the votes move East to West it largely goes:

East Coast: Centrist
Quebec: Always a clusterfuck of unpredicatbility
Ontario: Mix between center/left and center/right. This year mostly center/left
Prairies: More Right
West Coast: Left leaning

[Rustedsaint]

Ya minority liberal leaders,