Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Rasulis]

Interesting article from Dr. Monica Gandhi of UCSF.

Why California should be hopeful about its COVID future

I attached the March seroprevalence study presentation below which indicates that California general population had a seroprevalence rate of 38.5% by February 2021.

Virtual Grand Rounds: Fighting to the Finish – COVID-19 Vaccines vs Variants

If she is right, the combination of high vaccination rate and high seroprevalence rate had protected California during this summer surge.

Another piece of good news, the hospitalization in Fresno, San Joaquin and Kern counties is going down fast. My sister is getting pretty sick of Fresno. She is hoping the condition will improve enough in another week that she can return earlier.

BTW, it will be Giants vs. Dodgers this weekend. I could care less about the games. However, between the games and fleet week airshow, BART, Muni, Rail and the roads will be packed. It will be interesting to see if we'll have a minor uptick two weeks later.

[PhaelixWW]

If she is right, the combination of high vaccination rate and high seroprevalence rate had protected California during this summer surge.

Just don't forget that seroprevalence is not the be-all and end-all. Simply having measurable antibodies from a natural infection does not mean that your immune system is ready and capable of protection against serious infection. And the antibodies themselves wane. So a high seroprevalence in mid-winter early this year (tested from 1/30-2/20) will not necessarily count for much come late-fall and winter later this year.

I mean, a higher seroprevalence will almost certainly mean more protection against reinfection than in a similar area with lower seroprevalence, so it's still "good"(?) news, but the vaccinations are still far more important than measured seroprevalence from 8-10 months before the next potential spike in question.

[Rasulis]

Just don't forget that seroprevalence is not the be-all and end-all. Simply having measurable antibodies from a natural infection does not mean that your immune system is ready and capable of protection against serious infection. And the antibodies themselves wane. So a high seroprevalence in mid-winter early this year (tested from 1/30-2/20) will not necessarily count for much come late-fall and winter later this year.

I mean, a higher seroprevalence will almost certainly mean more protection against reinfection than in a similar area with lower seroprevalence, so it's still "good"(?) news, but the vaccinations are still far more important than measured seroprevalence from 8-10 months before the next potential spike in question.

I agree. However, it also lines up with this NPR article on super immunity to Covid.

New Studies Find Evidence Of 'Superhuman' Immunity To COVID-19 In Some Individuals

The initial high seroprevalence level in combination with the vaccine may be a factor in why we are not seeing the sharp waning of vaccine protection that we saw in Israel and some other regions.

It would be interesting to see another statewide seroprevalence study to see where we are right now.

- - - Updated - - -

It looks like the Bay Area will be staying masked for the foreseeable future under the new mask mandate termination criteria.

1. A county reaches the "moderate" (yellow) tier of case rates as determined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's data tracker and remains there for three weeks.
2. The county health officer determines that COVID-19 hospitalizations are "low and stable."
3. 80% of a county's total population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19 or eight weeks have passed since a COVID-19 vaccine has been authorized for children ages 5-11.

As currently written, it may be tough for counties to meet all three criteria before the end of 2021. Of the eight counties that adopted this criteria — San Francisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Contra Costa, Marin, Sonoma and Napa — exactly zero are currently in the moderate tier despite weeks of sustained case rate decreases.

Staying in the moderate tier for three weeks could also be a challenge, as evidenced by the case of Santa Cruz County. Once Santa Cruz reached the moderate tier, it rescinded its indoor mask mandate, and was returned to the "substantial" tier just a couple of days after reaching moderate due to fluctuations in the data.

Furthermore, the vaccination requirement is also ambitious. Even in the highly vaccinated San Francisco Bay Area, only Marin County has hit the 80% threshold. The next closest counties are San Francisco and San Mateo at 75% and 74%, respectively. Vaccination rates will increase once the Food and Drug Administration approves the vaccine for children ages 5-11, but that will not happen until the end of the month at the absolute earliest.

Once counties are able to meet the vaccination requirement — either by way of crossing the 80% threshold or reaching eight weeks post FDA approval — there's a decent chance they will no longer be able to satisfy the case criteria.

San Francisco is making an exception for offices and gyms next week.

San Francisco to soften portion of mask mandate next week, rest of Bay Area could be waiting

San Francisco County separately announced that it will soften the mask mandate in "places where stable cohorts of fully vaccinated individuals gather."

"These settings include offices, gyms, and fitness centers, employee commuter vehicles, religious gatherings, and indoor college classes or other organized gatherings of individuals who meet regularly, not exceeding 100 people," the city said in a news release. "People in these settings may remove their masks if the employer or host of the gathering can control access to the setting and verify 100% full vaccination of everyone in the setting."

The city wants businesses to bring their employees back to the downtown offices. Restaurants and bars in the SoMa and Commercial districts have been suffering due to the lack of foot traffic.

[Edge-]

Not covid specific, but covid-inspired lunacy - https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...reats-80328174

The National School Boards Association is requesting federal assistance in investigating, prosecuting, and stopping threats against school board members across the country.

Why? Part of it is unrelated to covid and around racial topics, which is out of bounds for the forum and thread.

But the other part? Because of lunatic, violent, dangerous parents and adults without children who are still sending threats of violence/death, and in increasing instances actually physically assaulting, school board members and teachers.

This shit needs to stop, and I hope the feds don't fuck around and roll hard on these folks threatening and engaging in violence because they want to weaponize an avoidable virus to infect kids and their families.

[Rasulis]

'This is a crisis': Tens of thousands of children affected by pandemic-related deaths of parents

Throughout the pandemic, public health experts and other observers have often noted that children have been largely spared the worst because they are less likely to develop severe illness from the virus. The fact that many of the dead are parents or caregivers has been largely left out of the conversation.

A new study published Thursday in the journal Pediatrics attempts to quantify the vast hole left by these deaths, estimating that roughly 140,000 children under 18 may have lost parents or caregivers from March 2020 to June 2021 due to covid or other causes classified as pandemic-related. Those numbers take into account both official covid deaths and deaths from other causes, such as homicides and drug overdoses, beyond those expected in a typical year before the pandemic.

Note: the current summer surge did not peak till August, 2021. So the actual number is much higher now.

The consequences are life-changing: Losing a parent or other primary caregiver is one of the most stressful things that can happen in a child's life - putting them at risk of a trajectory of depression and post-traumatic stress, as well as physical manifestations of grief, such as heart problems.

The data also reveal vast disparities by race and ethnicity - even more skewed toward an overrepresentation of minority communities than covid deaths. In the United States as a whole, 1 out of 500 children lost at least one parent/caregiver. But for American Indian children, it's 1 out of 168; for Black children, 1 out of 310; for Hispanic children, 1 out of 412; for Asian children, 1 out of 612; and for White children, 1 out of 753. The highest burden of death has occurred along the U.S.-Mexico border, in the South and in tribal areas.

Susan Hillis, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researcher and lead author of the study, said she has been lying awake at night worrying about the magnitude of the problem. "It's disturbing to think about how for every four covid deaths, one child is left behind," Hillis said. "This is a crisis."

Hillis and her co-authors, along with religious and tribal leaders, parent groups, grief support therapists and others are calling on states and the Biden administration to do more to support these children. They are urging a comprehensive response that includes financial assistance, mental health services, education, insurance and increased resources for the foster care system.

Pamela Addison, 37, of Waldwick, N.J., who is raising two young kids on her own after her husband died of covid, started a Facebook group to try to bring attention to the issue and offer support for other parents facing the same loss.

"I feel like these kids are so forgotten," she said. "We need to acknowledge this is happening and the consequences of these children losing a lifetime with their parents."

Mass casualty events in history have been shown to have a domino effect on children. Following World War I, studies showed that children whose soldier fathers died before or after their birth appeared to have decreased life spans. The more than 3,000 children who lost parents in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks still talk about the impact it has had on their lives.

"When a death is sudden and unexpected - which covid is by its nature - there's a lot of uncertainty, and that can put children at risk for many different health consequences," said Komal Sharma-Patel, a clinical psychologist at Children's National Hospital, who has been working with children who have lost parents due to covid.

In areas hit hard by the pandemic, the loss of so many parents has raised questions about how to preserve traditions, culture and community when supporting their children.

Whitney Gravelle, president of the Bay Mills Indian Community in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, said she worries that the impact of the loss of so many elders and parents will impact not just today's children but future generations, especially for small Indigenous communities like hers. She said she'd like to see more counseling about loss due to covid integrated into programs for at-risk children.

"In native communities, this an extension of intergenerational trauma that has been inflicted from forced removal from our lands up through present day," she said.

In Dallas, Aaron Blake Sr., a bishop who has been working with children orphaned by covid, said he broke down in tears when he saw data on parent and caregiver deaths from covid at a recent meeting with other Christian leaders.

He recounted the story of two children, whose young, single mom recently died of covid. The pair seemed destined for foster care. But the school district, social workers and community groups were able to locate the father, who had not previously been involved in the children's care and did not even have beds for them, and work with him to provide a home for the children.

"We want to help these kids stay within their families so we don't see a loss of community," Blake said.

He said he also worries that the impact of the loss of grandparents, even if they are not legally a child's caregivers, is not being fully recognized, and believes more must be done to figure out ways to provide that same sort of guidance to youths who may have lost these loved ones.

"In communities of color - Black and Brown - the matriarchs and patriarchs are grandmothers. They are the major stabilizers and voices in these homes," Blake said. He said his church is working with health departments and school systems to see if there is a way to figure out how many children may have been living in the same home as an elderly relative who died.

"If we can identify these kids," he said, "then we can help them."

[Zan15]

Canada and currently it doesn't seem to be lifted from emergency use in the states either. There are some articles saying it passed the FDA but it is still being distributed under the emergency use authorization act. That said it being rushed through isn't that compelling of an argument to me. I don't believe in miracle break throughs suddenly cutting over half a decade of research time. It looks like I won't have a choice in getting it if I don't want to lose everything I worked for over a decade to achieve I am just utterly disgusted in myself that what I believe is the right thing to do takes a back seat to not wanting to give up my comfort...

It is my own fault I suppose I highly specialized my trade skills to maximize what I could earn but its pigeon holed me into a place where a few people in the world get to dictate my employment.

LOL have you read the things you are not allowed or have to do as part of your employment? Those "few people" sure do "dictate" a lot of things don't they.

BTW i am shocked there are still people holding on to this "rushed" argument after all this time, data, # of shots and the fact the only thing that was rushed was mostly corporate production/research pipeline, federal paperwork red tape and waiting in line for your turn to be reviewed for approval.

None of which effect the quality or results of the vaxx.


sad, just really sad.

[Hollycakes]

Hadn't seen this posted.
Check this response out from a homeless guy who is now becoming famous.
His name is Ray.
Ray knows his shit.

From:
https://twitter.com/FilmThePoliceLA/...66038855217158


Hollywood Blvd, Saturday, 11:22 AM:

ANTI-VAXX PROTESTER:
"Do you see all of these homeless people around. Are they dead in the street with COVID? Hell no. Why?"

HOMELESS PERSON (walking by):
Because I’m vaccinated you dumb fuck.

[Self Inflicted Wounds]

Made her stutter lmao

[Hollycakes]

BTW i am shocked there are still people holding on to this "rushed" argument after all this time, data, # of shots and the fact the only thing that was rushed was mostly corporate production/research pipeline, federal paperwork red tape and waiting in line for your turn to be reviewed for approval.

None of which effect the quality or results of the vaxx.


sad, just really sad.

Was just reading about Shuri from Black Panther and the BS she's spewing too.
Same uneducated nonsense.
Besides telling people it has metal in it for 5G transmission she's saying things like:

'If you don’t conform to popular opinions. but ask questions and think for yourself…you get cancelled.'

She is getting her info from some quack priest Arayomi who says things like:

'Tonight I'm talking about Luciferase, the ingredient allegedly being added to the COVID vaccine to detect those who have not taken it. Luciferase, named by its founder after Lucifer???'

and:

'I don't understand vaccines medically, but I've always been a little bit of a skeptic of them.'

and the best one:

He also asks whether any coronavirus vaccine that contains animal DNA will turn people into human-animal 'chimeras', a 'half-human, a half- animal creature' that he says appears in the Bible.

This is her thinking for herself.
There are no words for this level of stupid.

[PhaelixWW]

There are no words for this level of stupid.

Oh, there definitely are. They're just not fit for polite company, or even whatever lower standard you'd call an internet forum.

[Rasulis]

More people are getting Covid-19 vaccine boosters than first shots

According to most recent data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more people are receiving a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine each day than are getting their first shot or are becoming fully vaccinated each day.

CDC data now shows more than six million fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. An average of 390,444 people are getting a booster shot each day, while only 288,105 people are starting their vaccination series each day and 276,539 people are becoming fully vaccinated each day.

Totally bonkers.

[Edge-]

More people are getting Covid-19 vaccine boosters than first shots



Totally bonkers.

I mean, it's depressingly predictable. The folks who care about protecting themselves and others will continue caring about protecting themselves and others. The Death Cultists will still be Death Cultists.

[PhaelixWW]

More people are getting Covid-19 vaccine boosters than first shots



Totally bonkers.

Why? Overall, about 2/3 of people in the US who are eligible for a vaccine right now are fully vaccinated. That's a larger pool to start with, and filled with people who are obviously not anti-vaxx.

I mean, it's bonkers that there are so many anti-vaxx people in general, but that's not new or surprising information at this point. I'm not even remotely surprised that there are more boosters going out than new vaccinations.

- - - Updated - - -

In related news, Pfizer today official applied to the FDA for an EUA for their COVID vaccine for ages 5-11.

Pfizer and BioNTech asked federal regulators on Thursday to authorize emergency use of their coronavirus vaccine for children ages 5 to 11, a move that could help protect more than 28 million people in the United States.

The companies say they are submitting data supporting the change to the Food and Drug Administration. The agency has promised to move quickly on the request and has tentatively scheduled a meeting on Oct. 26 to consider it. An F.D.A. ruling is expected as early as Halloween.

[Granyala]

Hadn't seen this posted.
Check this response out from a homeless guy who is now becoming famous.
His name is Ray.
Ray knows his shit.

From:
https://twitter.com/FilmThePoliceLA/...66038855217158


Hollywood Blvd, Saturday, 11:22 AM:

ANTI-VAXX PROTESTER:
"Do you see all of these homeless people around. Are they dead in the street with COVID? Hell no. Why?"

HOMELESS PERSON (walking by):
Because I’m vaccinated you dumb fuck.

Haha :'D
That was hilarious.

[Biglog]

The 3 main excuses used by anti-vaxxers all have huge holes.

"It's by body, my choice" - Ironic that they re-used the pro-choice argument that many of them oppose, but this one holds no water because being infected does not only impact you. It's the same reason you can't smoke in most public places for the past 25 years.

"Natural antibodies are as strong/stronger" - This one is simple, the big catch they seem to ignore about this is you have to *get and survive* COVID for this one to apply, potentially dying and/or having permanent lung or other damage, and taking hospital beds that others need and killing them so you can experience it without the vaccine.

"It's a conspiracy by Big Pharma to make money" - The virus is global, China has it's own multiple vaccines, Russia has had it's own Sputnik V vaccine since very early which they distributed free of charge. Those are not part of 'big pharma'. So hundreds of millions of people vaccinated did not get their vaccine from 'Big Pharma' like Pfizer at all. Therefore this one doesn't make any sense either. To buy into this a person must lack knowledge and have the misconception that everyone in the world that has been vaccinated got Pfizer/Moderna/J&J and that is NOT the case. Sputnik V was being pushed to the military (and mandatory for all service personnel there btw) in Russia since early last year. On top of all this, the shots are not expensive at all. Even in the US they are freely available by your local county in most cases, and if you pay they are a whole $20, it's not $5000/shot like a cancer drug that they are getting rich on. Many of them even think US doctors and nurses are 'in on it' which again fails to understand that the pandemic is global, not just in our dysfunctional US health care system or only using US pharma companies.

After the previous arguments like 'masks don't work' (which was never true) fell apart, and cases they said would go away exploded, they moved on to these newer arguments. Every medical worker since WW1 has known masks work. This is the issue though, that anti-vaxxers have dug in their heels and been so misinformed that it's difficult to have a reasonable, rational conversation on it. When one conspiracy theory or lie about the vaccine is debunked and proven false, they just go on to the next one. And after a few rounds of this they circle around and bring up old arguments again that were already debunked.

So that's why eventually it is probably going to become something like seat belt laws and no smoking areas, which upset almost just as many people about losing freedoms when they were implemented. But sometimes there are things that are needed for the greater good of the community. Seat belt laws in the US are estimated to have saved ~400,000 lives since 1975. The death rate from smoking has been cut in half in the US since 1990 from laws that curbed cigarette smoking. I prefer a laissez-faire approach by the government where they stay out of our business in most cases. But there are areas like smoking, seat belts, and now vaccines where people don't act in their own and/or the communities best interests and the government does have to sometimes force the issue for the greater good which is what we are starting to see now. Having a pool of unvaccinated citizens that are constantly spreading new infections is what has dragged out this pandemic for much longer than it needed to be, it's economic effects are impacting everyone, and everyday people (primarily unvaccinated btw) are dying. And increasingly the 80% that understand this are growing weary of the suffering caused by the 20% that don't.

[Rasulis]

I flew back from SD to SF last night. The Southwest flight was packed. Chatted with the stewardess a bit. She said that all flights to SF this week were full. Found out the Warriors and Lakers are going to have an exhibition game today also. I think we are going to stay put this weekend and avoid going to the east bay side of San Francisco.

We'll see if high vaccination rate will protect the city from something like this where we have a lot of out of town visitors. On that note.

San Francisco Orders All City Contractors To Get COVID Vaccinations

The mayoral order requires the contractor work crews to be fully vaccinated by December 31st.

San Francisco’s city workforce has one of these highest vaccination rates of any city in the country. Currently, over 94% of all municipal workers are vaccinated with just over 2,000 employees out of 35,000 registered as either unvaccinated or have not yet reported their status.

A bit heavy handed. However, well within the City's legal right.

[formerShandalay]

The 3 main excuses used by anti-vaxxers all have huge holes.

"It's by body, my choice" - Ironic that they re-used the pro-choice argument that many of them oppose, but this one holds no water because being infected does not only impact you. It's the same reason you can't smoke in most public places for the past 25 years.

"Natural antibodies are as strong/stronger" - This one is simple, the big catch they seem to ignore about this is you have to *get and survive* COVID for this one to apply, potentially dying and/or having permanent lung or other damage, and taking hospital beds that others need and killing them so you can experience it without the vaccine.

"It's a conspiracy by Big Pharma to make money" - The virus is global, China has it's own multiple vaccines, Russia has had it's own Sputnik V vaccine since very early which they distributed free of charge. Those are not part of 'big pharma'. So hundreds of millions of people vaccinated did not get their vaccine from 'Big Pharma' like Pfizer at all. Therefore this one doesn't make any sense either. To buy into this a person must lack knowledge and have the misconception that everyone in the world that has been vaccinated got Pfizer/Moderna/J&J and that is NOT the case. Sputnik V was being pushed to the military (and mandatory for all service personnel there btw) in Russia since early last year. On top of all this, the shots are not expensive at all. Even in the US they are freely available by your local county in most cases, and if you pay they are a whole $20, it's not $5000/shot like a cancer drug that they are getting rich on. Many of them even think US doctors and nurses are 'in on it' which again fails to understand that the pandemic is global, not just in our dysfunctional US health care system or only using US pharma companies.

After the previous arguments like 'masks don't work' (which was never true) fell apart, and cases they said would go away exploded, they moved on to these newer arguments. Every medical worker since WW1 has known masks work. This is the issue though, that anti-vaxxers have dug in their heels and been so misinformed that it's difficult to have a reasonable, rational conversation on it. When one conspiracy theory or lie about the vaccine is debunked and proven false, they just go on to the next one. And after a few rounds of this they circle around and bring up old arguments again that were already debunked.

So that's why eventually it is probably going to become something like seat belt laws and no smoking areas, which upset almost just as many people about losing freedoms when they were implemented. But sometimes there are things that are needed for the greater good of the community. Seat belt laws in the US are estimated to have saved ~400,000 lives since 1975. The death rate from smoking has been cut in half in the US since 1990 from laws that curbed cigarette smoking. I prefer a laissez-faire approach by the government where they stay out of our business in most cases. But there are areas like smoking, seat belts, and now vaccines where people don't act in their own and/or the communities best interests and the government does have to sometimes force the issue for the greater good which is what we are starting to see now. Having a pool of unvaccinated citizens that are constantly spreading new infections is what has dragged out this pandemic for much longer than it needed to be, it's economic effects are impacting everyone, and everyday people (primarily unvaccinated btw) are dying. And increasingly the 80% that understand this are growing weary of the suffering caused by the 20% that don't.

What I find most baffling with the 'It's all so Big Pharma can make more money!' argument is that they then turn around and say, soon the vaccination is going to be superfluous, because there will be 'a pill'. In the discussion I had I asked who they think is going to make money from those 'pills'. There was confusion on the other side and no answer.
I didn't push further after that, maybe they start thinking. They weren't on the same level of crazy that some of the more outrageous conspiracy theorists are, as in they did wear their masks, did take their PCR-tests and all of that, so maybe there's still hope, but I still thought for someone pointing out they are the ones 'thinking for themselves' and not being blinded by the government sources (scientists), they had very few answers to questions. I hope that is what's going to get them thinking.



(Of course I also pointed out that there wont be 'a pill', at least not 'soon' and that vaccinations are not exactly the best way for Big Pharma to make the most money in the long run, but things that you have to take again and again, maybe over several weeks (or even months, or years) are a lot better for making money. But all of that was just answered with something something government propaganda)

[s_bushido]

What I find most baffling with the 'It's all so Big Pharma can make more money!' argument is that they then turn around and say, soon the vaccination is going to be superfluous, because there will be 'a pill'. In the discussion I had I asked who they think is going to make money from those 'pills'. There was confusion on the other side and no answer.

Well, it's worse than that, because in the meantime Big Pharma also supplies medication to the hospitals they inevitably end up in because they were too stupid or stubborn to just get a free vaccine...

[formerShandalay]

Well, it's worse than that, because in the meantime Big Pharma also supplies medication to the hospitals they inevitably end up in because they were too stupid or stubborn to just get a free vaccine...

Yea, but seeing the confusion because of one simple question I thought I might not want to push my luck further, especially since that specific person was taking care of all the rest of the safety measures, as I said, with mask wearing, testing, distancing and so on. They weren't actually questioning the severity of Covid 19. Just afraid of the vaccine, because they read/heard about all the misinformation of it making you infertile, causing other long-term harm and all that jazz and, of course, that it is harmful[I] and [/] gets pushed by the government because of Big Pharma lobbying.

[Rasulis]

Hadn't seen this posted.
Check this response out from a homeless guy who is now becoming famous.
His name is Ray.
Ray knows his shit.

From:
https://twitter.com/FilmThePoliceLA/...66038855217158


Hollywood Blvd, Saturday, 11:22 AM:

ANTI-VAXX PROTESTER:
"Do you see all of these homeless people around. Are they dead in the street with COVID? Hell no. Why?"

HOMELESS PERSON (walking by):
Because I’m vaccinated you dumb fuck.

I can't speak for every single cities in the US, but I am willing to bet the homeless population in SF has a higher vaccination rate than most US southern states. Anybody willing to take the bet?