Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[unfilteredJW]

Without getting into whether I agree with it or not, or how good or bad the analogies are, all that article really says is that people are too stupid to follow rules that are intended to protect them, so why bother trying to control them? Just let them kill each other and themselves, it's not going to work anyway, and isn't worth the trouble. That doesn't make the rules themselves wrong.

Like toddlers too ignorant of life and all its complexities to understand that it's bad for you to stick something into an electrical socket, or that irons are hot and shouldn't be touched, that putting EVERYTHING in your mouth is probably a bad idea, that pulling on a cat's tail is likely to get you scratched, that gathering in groups of people who are likely sick will end up with people getting sick too, and a thousand other examples.

I don't disagree with the message, that it's kind of pointless to try and control society like this, because people will just keep doing what they want to do regardless of the rules. But again, all that message really tells me is something I already knew; that the general public, and people in general are idiots. Again, that doesn't mean the rules themselves are wrong, it's just that the rules won't work because people won't follow them. Those aren't the same thing.

I’d say selfish vs idiocy but the Venn diagram has a large overlap.

[Rasulis]

I am looking at some weird CDC numbers for California.

Overnight California level of community transmission went from mid 60s to over 160 cases in the last 7 days per 100k. However, hospitalization stayed flat.

Biggest increase was in San Diego. The case rate went from a little over 100 to over 740 (639%). Which is higher than the winter peak. Yet, 7 days hospitalization rate only went up by 5%.

San Francisco case rate went up from 42 to 65. Hospitalization went down by 13%.

Marin case rate went up from 46 to 71. Hospitalization went down 66.67%. As in only 1 Covid patient was admitted in the last 7 days.

[Katchii]

I’d say selfish vs idiocy but the Venn diagram has a large overlap.

Insert [These are the same picture] meme.

The end result is the same, and I'd argue that there's no reasonable difference between the two, in this context. Someone selfish who's aware of the rule and is going to willfully ignore it and do what they want anyway is even worse than someone who's ignorant of the rule or too stupid to understand the rule in the first place. It's just different kinds of stupid, IMO, but one requires a deliberate choice to do something "stupid." It's the difference between a child that eats something bad for them because they can't read the label and don't know what it does and someone who actually read the label, understands that it's bad for them and choses to consume it anyway.

- - - Updated - - -

I am looking at some weird CDC numbers for California.

Overnight California level of community transmission went from mid 60s to over 160 cases in the last 7 days per 100k. However, hospitalization stayed flat.

Biggest increase was in San Diego. The case rate went from a little over 100 to over 740 (639%). Which is higher than the winter peak. Yet, 7 days hospitalization rate only went up by 5%.

San Francisco case rate went up from 42 to 65. Hospitalization went down by 13%.

Marin case rate went up from 46 to 71. Hospitalization went down 66.67%. As in only 1 Covid patient was admitted in the last 7 days.

Wouldn't this be explained by a lot of people testing positive but then just not having it bad enough to require hospitalization?

If that's actually what's happening, isn't that exactly what the vaccine is supposed to do?

[Rasulis]

Wouldn't this be explained by a lot of people testing positive but then just not having it bad enough to require hospitalization?

If that's actually what's happening, isn't that exactly what the vaccine is supposed to do?

I hope so. It is interesting to see that case rate does not equal hospitalization anymore.

Compare Collier, FL with Marin, CA.

Population: 384k vs. 260k.

7-day new case rate per 100k: 45.58 vs. 71.09.

7-day new hospital admission: 29 vs. 1.

% fully vaccinated of eligible population: 72.1 vs. 88.7.

For reference, San Francisco (population 874k) with case rate of 65.91 and vaccination rate of 83.9%, has a 7-day new hospital admission of 33.

[Katchii]

I hope so. It is interesting to see that case rate does not equal hospitalization anymore.

Compare Collier, FL with Marin, CA.

Population: 384k vs. 260k.

7-day new case rate per 100k: 45.58 vs. 71.09.

7-day new hospital admission: 29 vs. 1.

% fully vaccinated of eligible population: 72.1 vs. 88.7.

For reference, San Francisco (population 874k) with case rate of 65.91 and vaccination rate of 83.9%, has a 7-day new hospital admission of 33.

Time will tell, I suppose. I'm cautiously optimistic. I hear more about cases lately where it's a minor annoyance because they were vaccinated and then back to normal in a few days, aside from the quarantining they do to keep others from getting it.

As others have said many times before, stay safe folks.

[Rasulis]

Two counties in the same state, two different reactions to CDC vaccine approval for children age 5 - 11.

Excitement builds in Bay Area on first day of COVID vaccines for young children

On Tuesday night, more than a thousand San Francisco parents joined a virtual question-and-answer session with public health officials, just hours after the CDC signed off on vaccines for elementary-age students. Their questions ranged from where and when they could get the first shots to why they should vaccinate their children if severe COVID-19 is not common in that age group.

Hundreds of Fresno parents seek information on COVID vaccine exemptions after CDC news

Just hours after the Center for Disease Control and Prevention recommended the pediatric COVID-19 vaccine for children 5-11 years old on Tuesday, hundreds gathered at a church in downtown Fresno for a town hall on vaccine exemptions.

[Edge-]

Hundreds of Fresno parents seek information on COVID vaccine exemptions after CDC news

*sigh*

The Death Cult pockets of this state are determined to keep the pandemic going on forever. It's almost like they like it.

[Rasulis]

*sigh*

The Death Cult pockets of this state are determined to keep the pandemic going on forever. It's almost like they like it.

For comparison.

Fresno County, population 999k, % fully vaccinated of eligible population 64.3%, 7-day new cases per 100k is 388.75, 7-day new hospital admission is 235.

[Forogil]

Yeah, moving to a different thread didn't make those claims about Sweden any better So I think I'll just re-quote the Scandanavian Journal of Public Health that basically says (a) Sweden screwed up and (b) it was their government's fault.



I did a little checking around. The Scandanavian Journal of Public Health is a reputable enough source that it cannot be handwaved with "lol North Korea lies about their numbers". They specifically and directly called out Sweden's government for failing, and individual people gave up and just imposed a lockdown on their own.

Posting the same uncited non-argument in a different thread didn't make it any more true. When ranked by deaths/capita, Sweden isn't the worst -- nor even as bad as the USA under Trump -- but they are 54th, with a 147.4 deaths/100k. That's double the global average, also known as "objectively did worse than most of the planet". That's about the same as Ukraine, Iran, and Greece.

Stop using reported deaths as kind of accurate measurement, especially when comparing different countries - compare with https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker and you see a bit different picture with deaths per 100,000 persons:

• 576 Peru
• 300 Iran
• 254 Ukraine
• 242 United States
• 215 World
• 138 Greece
• 106 Sweden
• 27 Denmark

So Sweden has still done a lot worse than Denmark - but not compared to the rest of the world.

Obviously those numbers aren't fully accurate and comparable either; excess deaths is an estimate and countries have different age-profiles that naturally lead to different risks. Some of the covid-deaths will also be old persons that died with covid as a contributing factor and would have died for other reasons (partially explaining why both Denmark and Sweden have higher reported death rates than excess deaths), whereas all the restrictions have led to unrelated avoided deaths (you aren't run over by a bus on the way to work if you don't have to go to work; and practically no-one died of the flu) - and some additional deaths (people in India run over by trains while walking home, since they had no work). (And death reporting takes time and the pandemic isn't over yet.)

It's just that excess deaths are a lot more useful than reported deaths, where countries fudge the numbers even more.

And before someone claims that it has nothing to do with reality - look at the country at top, Peru, which now has about the same number of reported deaths and excess deaths; that is because they recognized this and updated their numbers to better reflect reality, previously there was a large gap as in Iran and Ukraine - https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-...eath-toll.html

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Determination of b- & t-cells ability to recognize Covid virus requires genetic sequencing which is not available commercially.

T-cells tests for covid are available commercially.

https://walkin-clinic.co.uk/coronavi...19-t-cell-test
https://patch.com/us/across-america/...provide-answer
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-au...ry?id=76318248

It's expensive - as is genetic sequencing (also available commercially; the cost of full genome sequencing has really dropped the last decades).

[Rasulis]

T-cells tests for covid are available commercially.

https://walkin-clinic.co.uk/coronavi...19-t-cell-test
https://patch.com/us/across-america/...provide-answer
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-au...ry?id=76318248

It's expensive - as is genetic sequencing (also available commercially; the cost of full genome sequencing has really dropped the last decades).

It looks like those tests only give positive/negative results. They don't provide quantitative results for comparison between t- and b-cells ability to recognize the virus. Whether it is obtained through infection or vaccine. For that, as a lay person, it is my understanding that you still need gene sequencing.

T cell responses arise earlier than antibodies, and last through clearance into convalescence.1
T-Detect COVID is the first clinical test that detects T cells to confirm recent or past SARS-CoV-2 infections. T-Detect COVID test results are a binary positive/negative result. A positive result means there was a recent or past exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. A negative result indicates that past exposure to SARS-CoV-2 probably did not occur.

Much of what we are learning about T cells is consistent with what we see in the immune response to other viruses, but the combination of global scientific focus and the number of people infected with the virus in such a short period of time has led to an understanding of the variability of individual responses on a greater scale. In the setting of COVID-19, we are seeing:

[Breccia]

excess deaths per 100,000 persons

Until there's evidence that someone other than "lol North Korea" in the Scandanavian countries is lying, I'm fine with the journal article I reported.

EDIT: I should add "in this specific context" this information you provided is quite useful in a more general context.

[Corvus]

And anyone that thinks the governments of all of India, China, the US, and Russia are working together on some sort of nefarious tin foil global conspiracy (when India-China, US-China, US-Russia are adversarial also btw) with all of the global pharmaceutical companies I'd say that person is far beyond help.

No, no, see, your just a sheeple who doesn't understand that the aliens/lizardmen/satanic cabal/deep state/whoever else that secretly runs the world is just staging these international incidents to cover up what they are really up to.


Makes no sense, I know.

[Breccia]

It's just that excess deaths are a lot more useful than reported deaths

Adding to this, life expectency.

A new study shows that, of the industrialized countries, the USA had the highest drop in life expectency.

Russia was worst.

[Rasulis]

From CDC Vaccination Summary Page.

192.9M people are fully vaccinated (out of 330M). So we are probably still in for a lot of pain.

20M people already received booster shots. Around 750k - 1M per day and still going.

The people that received Moderna and Pfizer stayed with the same vaccine. Only 21% of J&J recipients stayed with J&J.

San Francisco overnight 7-day per capita new case went from the 40s to the 60s and then back to the 40s. It is back in Moderate zone again.

97.5% of all sworn officers of SFPD are fully vaccinated. 97.8% of non-sworn SFPD personnel are fully vaccinated. 41 sworn officers are unvaccinated and 13 partially vaccinated. Unlike other jurisdictions, SFPD vaccination rate is higher than the city's general population.

[Corvus]

Where I live, Western Australia, the state government is going to make it mandatory to be double vaccinated for at least 75% of the state's workforce. Queue usual whinging. The school I work at (where it will of course be mandatory) have come out and said of course they are going to follow the law. Queue crazies complaining and/or publicly quitting. At least I won't have to be listening to all the conspiracies next year when they are gone. But given teachers have to be university educated here, it just goes to show an education doesn't prevent insanity.

On the plus side, after a slow start, vaccination efforts have really taken off due to the delta wave and lockdowns. For the 16+ range, 78.5% have been double vaccinated and 88.7% have received at least a single does. There is a wide range between states though - Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, which all had the Delta wave are very highly vaccinated. The other states, which avoided the wave, are lagging behind. The ACT (basically Australia's capital) is at 99%+ for single dose for over 16s and almost 94% double vaccinated. Vic and NSW are both over 90% for single doses. Given they are the two most populous states it bumps the countries average up.

The 12-15 age bracket has only fairly recently been approved but uptake rates for them have been really good. They are up to almost 70% first dose and 50% second dose despite starting a long time after the rest of the population.

Turns out having all major political parties actively campaigning for vaccinations makes a big difference.

[Forogil]

Until there's evidence that someone other than "lol North Korea" in the Scandanavian countries is lying, I'm fine with the journal article I reported.

I more meant the comparison with the world and in particular Iran and Ukraine in terms of deaths.

And the neighbors of Sweden are also worth studying. Denmark lifted all restrictions September 10 (after a time with very few restrictions), and e.g. mask use was never above 20% it seems. A major difference is that politicians were more in charge in Denmark than in Sweden, leading to politicians going back to what they know - closing borders, and also overstepping boundaries and e.g., culling millions of minks - with political consequences.

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It looks like those tests only give positive/negative results. They don't provide quantitative results for comparison between t- and b-cells ability to recognize the virus.

That doesn't necessarily say that they cannot give quantitative results, it may be that they don't because it isn't as useful.
Basically I think you have fewer T-cells than covid anti-bodies in a blood sample, and most aren't for covid-19 thus you have a larger statistical error - and the covid-19 specificity is also varying, so you have several measurement making it messier.

Whether it is obtained through infection or vaccine. For that, as a lay person, it is my understanding that you still need gene sequencing.

You can also use gene sequencing for other covid-tests; and some gene sequencing is also commercially available.

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Without getting into whether I agree with it or not, or how good or bad the analogies are, all that article really says is that people are too stupid to follow rules that are intended to protect them, so why bother trying to control them?

That's not what I get.

Instead it is that most aren't stupid and if you explain why they will take precautions even if not strictly required, but some wont even at gun-point.

Thus by focusing on the strict rules you both get backlash every time a politician breaks their own rules (you know as ... did; and why wasn't he/she punished more?), and people get creative in following the letter while ignoring the idea - kids meeting outside of school when they are closed, Russians going on holiday when companies close due to surging infections, people getting a dog to be able to go outside more ...

Obviously many that spread the idea that we shouldn't have the rules are the ones that also ignore the current rules, and wouldn't take precautions anyway.

[Slirith]

*sigh*

The Death Cult pockets of this state are determined to keep the pandemic going on forever. It's almost like they like it.

To be honest, refusing to vaccinate your child should be counted as child abuse. Only exemption should be allergic reactions, not your silly ass religion or feelings.

[Katchii]

That's not what I get.

Instead it is that most aren't stupid and if you explain why they will take precautions even if not strictly required, but some wont even at gun-point.

Admittedly, my statement was a bit overexaggerated and mostly tongue in cheek, so I don't necessarily disagree with your view.

But, I think you're vastly overestimating the intelligence or at least good will of the general population or underestimating just how pervasive the idea you put forth below (following the letter but not the idea) is. The end result is that huge swathes of the population either don't get it, or don't care, and therefore don't do the right thing (follow the idea behind the rules)

Thus by focusing on the strict rules you both get backlash every time a politician breaks their own rules (you know as ... did; and why wasn't he/she punished more?), and people get creative in following the letter while ignoring the idea - kids meeting outside of school when they are closed, Russians going on holiday when companies close due to surging infections, people getting a dog to be able to go outside more ...

Agreed here.

Obviously many that spread the idea that we shouldn't have the rules are the ones that also ignore the current rules, and wouldn't take precautions anyway.

And this is the portion of the population that the rules are FOR, because they're too obstinate, stupid, selfish, or whatever you want to call it, to do the right thing on their own so need hard rules to be put in place to try and force them do the right thing. This is the potion my statement was aimed at. There's no point in making these rules because these people won't follow them anyway.

But overall, yes, I agree with your view.

[Rasulis]

That doesn't necessarily say that they cannot give quantitative results, it may be that they don't because it isn't as useful.
Basically I think you have fewer T-cells than covid anti-bodies in a blood sample, and most aren't for covid-19 thus you have a larger statistical error - and the covid-19 specificity is also varying, so you have several measurement making it messier.

That may be so. However, the currently available commercial products only provide positive or negative results of prior Covid infection.

You can also use gene sequencing for other covid-tests; and some gene sequencing is also commercially available.

I should have added that genomic sequencing is still expensive. The Elecsys tests used in the CARES study could be purchased in bulk for $31 per test. Genomic sequencing is over $1,000 each. The study had 87,866 participants. Each had three tests over a period of 6 - 8 months. Adding genomic sequencing would increase the cost of the study by at least $270M.

[Edge-]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...ce-their-cause

In which a dewormer is still a popular choice of covid treatment by people with precisely zero medical training.

The Death Cult remains strong.