Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Puupi]

For the sake of both of us, I hope I can prove you wrong in 6 months. I trust science to come up with a solution/cure until the end of the year.

Hopefully. But this is just simple maths and statistics at this point.

Eg. Italy has lost 0,1% of their whole population in the past three weeks. Spain has lost 0,1% in two weeks.

And as we all know, unfortunately this is only the beginning of the actual widespread epidemic that's to come.

[telygroar]

Europe is starting to use authoritarianism tactics to force people to do things that violates their rights. Communist continent.


Thank god we have the Bill of Rights, Constitution and Amendment Rights which limits governments powers. Greatest country in the world.

Yeah, free for all ! Survive if you can =)

[StayTuned]

Well we aren't flattening it because there is no coordinated effort, we could be looking to upwards of 2.2 million Americans dead and Trump is talking about lifting everything by easter.

He won't. Even oompa loompa is starting to become scared shitless. At first it was him taking, then some people with more knowledge told him to get a grip, now it's again a bit of his own brain diarrhea, soon the experts will again tell him to shut up.
Then you have the chance to vote him out of office.

[Ghostpanther]

It doesn't need to last four years to surpass WW2. 6 months and we are seeing WW2 total numbers. Most countries lost 0,5-1,5% of their population in WW2, which is roughly the same that is estimated for covid19 within the next year.

So you are saying it is going to surpass 50 million dead within the next year? You honestly believe that? There is a huge difference between potential and actual. And so many "what if's". It is to be taken serous and worked on to help reduce it's impact.

I am practicing my part by following the guild lines to help prevent the spread of it. But still no reason to fall for the doomsday predictions by some. As of now, it still pales in comparison to many other human kind death tolls from diseases and wars. A estimated 50 - 60 million died world wide from the Spanish Flu. 675,000 Americans.

[StayTuned]

Hopefully. But this is just simple maths and statistics at this point.

Eg. Italy has lost 0,1% of their whole population in the past three weeks. Spain has lost 0,1% in two weeks.

And as we all know, unfortunately this is only the beginning of the actual widespread epidemic that's to come.

Right, but my hope is that these numbers are the result of our initial carelessness. Asians are much better at dealing with this because they took this shit serious from the beginning.

Italy is a prime example of an overly cocky nation. All of Europe is, really. When corona started they were still kissing each other as a greeting. Germany had "corona parties" and we still had carnival. The USA still had the spring break. We're dumb idiots to be honest.

Now we will see if our current measures will have any effect. I think they will.

[Wilfire]

If you still believe government statistics, IDK what to say. The actual number of dead and infected is probably at least 100x as high as it is officially reported.

[Egomaniac]

He won't. Even oompa loompa is starting to become scared shitless. At first it was him taking, then some people with more knowledge told him to get a grip, now it's again a bit of his own brain diarrhea, soon the experts will again tell him to shut up.
Then you have the chance to vote him out of office.

Just today he was talking about how keeping everything on lockdown was a liberal conspiracy to tank the economy so he looks bad in November.

[JohnBrown1917]

He won't. Even oompa loompa is starting to become scared shitless. At first it was him taking, then some people with more knowledge told him to get a grip, now it's again a bit of his own brain diarrhea, soon the experts will again tell him to shut up.
Then you have the chance to vote him out of office.

Most Americans think Trump is doing a goob job on Corona and his approval rating went up, so good luck with them voting him out of office over this.
Plus, plenty of people in his inner circle don't want a lockdown, they care more about short-term gains, always have.

- - - Updated - - -

If you still believe government statistics, IDK what to say. The actual number of dead and infected is probably at least 100x as high as it is officially reported.

And your sources for this are..?


Infected could be true, but only because not everybody gets tested.

[StayTuned]

If you still believe government statistics, IDK what to say. The actual number of dead and infected is probably at least 100x as high as it is officially reported.

Whom do you think the hospitals etc report to? Also, who is reporting to you, that you spout bullshit like that?

[Shadowferal]

New York will be first state to test treatment of coronavirus with blood from recovered patients

The method dates back more than a century, but it has not been used widely in the United States in decades.

Hoping to stem the toll of the state’s surging coronavirus outbreak, New York health officials plan to begin collecting plasma from people who have recovered and injecting the antibody-rich fluid into patients still fighting the virus.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the plans during a news briefing Monday. The treatment, known as convalescent plasma, dates back centuries and was used during the flu epidemic of 1918 — in an era before modern vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Some experts say the treatment, although somewhat primitive, might be the best hope for combating the coronavirus until more sophisticated therapies can be developed, which could take several months.

Infusions of convalescent plasma were associated with milder symptoms and shorter hospital stays for some patients during the 2002 SARS outbreak, and initial reports from China suggest convalescent plasma might also be effective in dulling the effects of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

New York will begin by offering the treatment only to critically ill patients. But, experts said, once it is proven safe and effective, the treatment will likely work best if given to patients before symptoms become too severe. Casadevall said past studies indicate that proactive infusions of convalescent plasma might also be effective in protecting front-line health care workers from becoming seriously ill.

Similar efforts are underway across the country as hospitals scramble to prepare for an onslaught of critically ill COVID-19 patients, similar to what's happened in New York and Seattle.

[Puupi]

So you are saying it is going to surpass 50 million dead within the next year? You honestly believe that? There is a huge difference between potential and actual. And so many "what if's". It is to be taken serous and worked on to help reduce it's impact.

It might not surpass 50 million in the first world, but when this shit really hits Africa - oh boy...we aren't looking at 1% death ratios.

Keeping the death toll below 1% requires a top of the line health care system without overburdening its ICU capacity. That's possible in western countries, yet unlikely to be achieved everywhere. Third world countries will be totally fucked.

As of now, it still pales in comparison to many other human kind death tolls from diseases and wars.

Yeah because it basically started spreading just weeks ago.

[Shadowferal]

If you still believe government statistics, IDK what to say. The actual number of dead and infected is probably at least 100x as high as it is officially reported.

Same with those that have recovered...likely far more than has been estimated or reported.

[Wilfire]

Whom do you think the hospitals etc report to? Also, who is reporting to you, that you spout bullshit like that?

If the reported numbers were correct, we wouldn't have so many cases of famous people like Prince Charles and Balsonoro getting infected.

[StayTuned]

If the reported numbers were correct, we wouldn't have so many cases of famous people like Prince Charles and Balsonoro getting infected.

Wondeful. Do you base your life decisions on the same kind of logic?

[Puupi]

If the reported numbers were correct, we wouldn't have so many cases of famous people like Prince Charles and Balsonoro getting infected.

Bolsonaro? The president of Brazil? Does he have corona?! God damn.

Maybe there is a god after all!

[Ghostpanther]

It might not surpass 50 million in the first world, but when this shit really hits Africa - oh boy...we aren't looking at 1% death ratios.

Keeping the death toll below 1% requires a top of the line health care system without overburdening its ICU capacity. That's possible in western countries, yet unlikely to be achieved everywhere. Third world countries will be totally fucked.


Yeah because it basically started spreading just weeks ago.

I read or heard it had started in China first back in Nov. of 2019? And we are much better prepared to fight a virus epidemic like this one, than we where in 1918 when the Spanish Flu hit. I remember all the doomsday warnings about Ebola. How many died total? And the great majority of those where in the undeveloped countries in Africa. So you do have a good point about that continent.

[Skulltaker]

If you think that corona will last for four years, you're being overly dramatic. Herd immunity, a vaccine or simply an effective medicine will come before that.

Of course it's a shit situation because we were really not prepared, but it's not WW2. The situation looks much better in Korea already for example.

It will flatten out at some point. Don't insult WW2 by comparing them yet. Compare them when the death toll comes closer. WW2 is still in it's own league

What you need to be aware of is that, when you look at all those neat and shiny 'flatten the curve' diagrams, is that we are somewhere in the first 10 - 15% of the graph right now. I know, three months feels like a lot, but this is still a relatively early stage.

Herd immunity requires a minimum (!) 60% immunization to even be possible. To put that in numbers: We need 4.62 billion people, equally distributed in regards of population density, to contract and survive this virus. We have, so far, 113.000. Let's assume this number is, by now, significantly higher, because by far not all cases are being reported, so let's increase this number by a factor of 10. So we have a whooping 1.1 million immune, when we need 4,620 million. 0.25% potential for herd immunity achieved.

Now the good thing about this is that apparently, if you've developed immunity once, the mutations in Covid-19 are so limited that you'll likely stay immune for the rest of your life, which could lead to an 'extinction' of the virus naturally. In a few generations.

The most conservative projections still assume that 20% of the world's population will contract this virus within the next 15 months. That's 1.5 billion people. If we assume that the number of infected is bigger than the reported numbers by a factor of 10, we have, so far, dealt with or are dealing with 0.3% of the expected total. And we are already seeing signs of terrible strain on the healthcare system everywhere.

I just read a report of my colleagues at the DIFKM, the German Institute for medical catastrophes, who visited hospitals in Strasbourg. Three days ago, they were admitting one patient in need of medical ventilation every hour. They need to be on medical ventilation for anything in between 12 or 21 days. The University hospital there had to postpone all operations bar trauma surgery, they are no longer operating on cancer patients, they are only allowing one bypass-operation per day. The entire hospital is being outfitted to do nothing else but treat Covid-19 patients. They are actively pulling staff and equipment from other hospitals.

And it still isn't enough. Patients 80 years or older are simply not treated anymore, they recieve pain killers and sleeping pills. In case it's not clear as to what that means, the doctors make sure you don't suffer. That's the best they can do.

While this isn't WW2, from a medical point of view, there are already many parallels. When I started studying and practicing medicine I never thought that I'd have to perform triage in my lifetime. Now it looks like that point is weeks away, at best. I cannot imagine what colleagues in the very dire parts of the world are going through right now, and I'm mortifiedby the thought of going through this myself. I've lost patients before, that's unavoidable, but this is different.

So please, don't downplay this. I don't call for full-on panic, but everyone should be aware of what might very well be coming. Soon.

[Gaidax]

Keeping the death toll below 1% requires a top of the line health care system without overburdening its ICU capacity. That's possible in western countries, yet unlikely to be achieved everywhere. Third world countries will be totally fucked.

Yes, we're currently at 0.2% death rate and it requires medical teams literally dancing around the 37 serious cases (ventilated) and out of them 2 who are critical right now (full life support).

Our PM just blankly said that in 15 days from now, at this rate, we won't be able to do this anymore. If this shit hits some "emerging economy" country you will have people there dying like flies. Heck, it might have already did, just going under radar and underreported.

[Egomaniac]

I read or hear it had started in China first back in Nov. of 2019? And we are much better prepared to fight a virus epidemic like this one, than we where in 1918 when the Spanish Flu hit. I remember all the doomsday warnings about Ebola. How many died total? And the great majority of those where in the undeveloped countries in Africa. So you do have a good point about that continent.

Do you remember when Trump said, and im paraphrasing but "we now have 15 cases but soon we'll be at zero or close to zero"?

That was less than a month ago.

[Shadowferal]