Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Acidbaron]

This graphic despicts countries into 3 diferent groups.

I want to comment on this as this was mentioned yesterday on a talkshow here.

Belgium situation looks worse than it is due to our complete reporting that means anyone with the suspicion of COVID19 gets in that list.

A large part of the deaths are now happening in elderly homes. Those deaths we also include in that graph and same goes for people who die under suspicion of in a private environment (their own home of apartment) not something that is done elsewhere.

Our ICU capacity is at 1/5th with roughly around 1000 of the 5000 beds used. So we are more than fine.

[Granyala]

This graphic despicts countries into 3 diferent groups.

Japan, what are you doing? :O

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Yesterday taking my cat to the vet for a minor dental surgery, I saw a guy sitting in his car in his driveway. Reading a newspaper. I was at a red light so I had a little bit to ask Emma the Cat "What the hell, kitten." and look in confusion.

Maybe the wife was agitated and the poor guy sought refuge in his wheels.

[Acidbaron]

I'm not "blaming" anyone. Blaming doesn't help anyone right now. Blame ond potential repercussions/chanced can be assigned & seen to once the post mortem analysis of the situation is done.
I merely state that, in my personal opinion, they acted incorrectly.

Not just China, or the WHO. Pretty much any government took too long to take things seriously.
As for the troll in the White House... I don't know man. Sure, it's hip to make mean jokes about "dumb Americans" around here and his case isn't helping to make that happen less frequently.

But the level of incompetence and disunity in their response displayed by America is just unreal now. And the most staggering fact of all is that this administration still seems to have the support of the people. O_o

You misunderstand that part was while quoting your post not aimed directly at you, the user names escape me but there are a few people in here that resort to calling it the CCP virus.

Take note that health organizations that offer aid in third world countries have been setting up shop often in the US to get aid, such as dental care because that's how poorly the healthcare system is in the US in terms of accessibility they need organizations that we fund to work in Africa to help out in the US. The disconnect of where the US stands and where they think it stands has been going on for quite some time now.

[Poopymonster]

Japan, what are you doing? :O

Probably because when told "Stay the fuck home and it won't spread as fast." and "Wear masks, oh you already are, carry on." and "Don't congregate in large groups. Or small groups for that matter." and "WASH YOUR GODDAMN HANDS" they did.

[Voidwielder]

Russians are not traveling so much, and we have very effective epidemic investigation teams (those who identify who was in infected countries, who were contacting with etc)
Atleast in Moscow these teams are doing good job. Also there is no need to test everyone, you should test yourself only if you feel really bad, like your breath shortens, that means not enough oxygen, or you are in group of risk (old etc).
What is reason to test if your temperature is 37.5, you are 25, and feel more or less okay? Sit at home and enjoy video games. There is people that need test more than you.

Feel dumb yet?

[PosPosPos]

Japan, what are you doing? :O

As the popular saying goes, you don't have cases if you don't test. They don't test because it would look bad on them.

Japan's leadership are some of the largest nationalist egos out there in the world, it's also why they refused to at least consider postponing the Olympics until the rest of the world simply wouldn't attend.

[Kiri]

I was referring to the normal democratic channels (like voting parties etc).
Obviously, when you have civil rights movements forming and going out on the street, shit is already burning to a degree even a corrupt regime can no longer ignore.

In this very thread, it was stated that WHO made the recommendation to not enact travel restrictions, despite knowing that China had lost control of the situation. If that is true (Internet, take what you read with a good ol' box'o'salt) then that would directly contradict the reason we wanted to have them there. Their job is to tell us if one member state has a problem that might affect us, whether that member state likes it or not.

I mean, normal channels also have an effect, which is why many positive developments come without needing to set fire to things. A lot of countries all over the world already were implementing more eco-friendly measures before there was a bigger movement. Corporate interests certainly stymied those to an extent, but it still happened.
It probably depends on the country to begin with tbh. In the US for example, certain issues just can't be fixed through voting since the two parties they got both don't really want it to happen. But that's an issue with that particular system, less the democratic process overall. My country has a lot of parties, which allows voters to vote for specific interests, which in turn causes the bigger parties to adopt stances from smaller ones.
But even in the US, pressure can work, at least on one of the two parties. It's just quite a bit harder haha.

As for the WHO and travel restrictions: I knew of that. The reccomendations are still easily available on the WHO site itself. But that kind of contradicts the point. The WHO made those recs based on the science they have:

WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, as they may allow countries to gain time, even if only a few days, to rapidly implement effective preparedness measures. Such restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.

Full text at https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...id-19-outbreak and https://www.who.int/news-room/articl...rus-2019-ncov/ . Papers this relies on like http://www9.who.int/bulletin/volumes.../14-135590/en/ can be found there as well.

Their recommendation is obviously more nuanced than what the internet, being the internet, would say, but they did base it on the research and data they had. There certainly are quite a few scientists that would agree to it as well.
But that's kind of the point. You said that science and data leave no room for interpretation, but that's kind of not how that works. 2+2=4 leave little room for interpretation (at least in most cases, let's not get into advanced math here) but looking at the data prevalent to this recommendation? There definitely is. The WHO for example had to estimate how much the spread of the disease could still be stymied by restrictions, especially given the long incubation time, and run that against the adverse effects that they would have on the global response, how people would react to it and, yes, even the economic effects. And that is where you leave the realm of pure data and enter interpretation. Because once you start weighing these things against one another, you need to assign value to things that is by definition somewhat subjective. We economists would call it utility.
I mean, just try it yourself. Say, a travel restriction allows you to postpone the peak of an outbreak by 1,5 weeks by imposing four weeks of travel restrictions, which also delays needed help and technical support by say two weeks. Remember, this isn't much about flattening the curve yet, just moving the whole graph a bit to the right. You cannot tell with certainty how many lives are saved by delaying the peak and how many lives are lost by delaying help. What would you say is the better choice here?
Obviously, we don't need to answer this, since we can't. No one really can. But people with much more expertise in this than us took it upon themselves to interpret the data, deduce the effects to the best of their extent (hopefully) and made a recommendation. There is a lot of necessary discourse and interpretation of data necessary for crises like this, not some sort of binary choice to be made with certainty.

Again, I am not some sort of crusader for the WHO saying they always do everything right, obviously. But having a background in science - even though economics is an art for some reason I will never truly agree with - I just kind of want to raise awareness that a lot of good comes from that organization and how hard their work often is. The same goes for many health officials, really. It is always much, much easier to ex post criticize a decision than it is to make it, especially when we only have a single dimension to care about and our own sensibilities of right and wrong. We don't have to worry about our funding. We don't have to worry about the long-term repercussions of pissing off the wrong people, like being in a worse position to respond to a future crisis or even the one we are in right now just at a later point in order to make the present a bit better. And we don't have to take responsibility for making those calls.

[Granyala]

Probably because when told "Stay the fuck home and it won't spread as fast." and "Wear masks, oh you already are, carry on." and "Don't congregate in large groups. Or small groups for that matter." and "WASH YOUR GODDAMN HANDS" they did.

I was referring to the fact that they show exponential growth.
At that rate, stuff will escalate quickly.

[Acidbaron]

As the popular saying goes, you don't have cases if you don't test. They don't test because it would look bad on them.

Japan's leadership are some of the largest nationalist egos out there in the world, it's also why they refused to at least consider postponing the Olympics until the rest of the world simply wouldn't attend.

I think a lot of it has to do with the Olympic games what is a large undertaking. Japan is also a very populated nation with a lot of people living close on top of each other, so it was to be expected that it would go up over time even with respect to all measures.

[stevenho]

If only more countries could have charts looking as nice as Sweden.

[Granyala]

I mean, just try it yourself. Say, a travel restriction allows you to postpone the peak of an outbreak by 1,5 weeks by imposing four weeks of travel restrictions, which also delays needed help and technical support by say two weeks. Remember, this isn't much about flattening the curve yet, just moving the whole graph a bit to the right. You cannot tell with certainty how many lives are saved by delaying the peak and how many lives are lost by delaying help. What would you say is the better choice here?

I know that data isn't always black and white and they can only act on data they actually have, I also know that they have priorities and weighing factors.
Like you said: the socioeconomic issue is complex and whenever human behavior is involved, science ceases to be the neat, mathematical and exact thing we all love. A fact I am prone to overlooking because human behavior is often quite alien and illogical to me.

Anyhow, you are right: everyone is wiser after the fact. None of us were in their position, had limited data, had to make a call NOW. It's probably a lot harder to do than most of us realize (myself included).

Regarding your example above: use modern technology to filter the traffic. System relevant stuff gets through, tourists do not. People native to your country returning from a dangerous location will be detained and quarantined for 50% of the incubation period (if tests are available) or 100% if no tests are yet available.
Yes... I can already hear the "muh humaaan rights" crowd sharpening their pitchforks.

[sybilrogers]

It is such a big disaster to our world many countries suffering from this deadly disease I pray to God this will end soon.

[Granyala]

They did have few bad days, but it is nowhere near exponential growth.

Uuh what kind of mathematical function would you attribute to the shape of the green curve then?
To me, it looks like the beginning of an exponential function. Certainly not linear growth.

[Trassk]

It is such a big disaster to our world many countries suffering from this deadly disease I pray to God this will end soon.

Praying to God wont end it, seen as how church goers are defying the isolation rule and gathering to pray thus spreading it more

[Ghostpanther]

Praying to God wont end it, seen as how church goers are defying the isolation rule and gathering to pray thus spreading it more

Some are. Most of those who believe in the power of prayer, are not doing what you said. You do not need to go to church to pray.

[Dormie]

Idk about you guys but I'm enjoying myself.

[Kiri]

I know that data isn't always black and white and they can only act on data they actually have, I also know that they have priorities and weighing factors.
Like you said: the socioeconomic issue is complex and whenever human behavior is involved, science ceases to be the neat, mathematical and exact thing we all love. A fact I am prone to overlooking because human behavior is often quite alien and illogical to me.

Anyhow, you are right: everyone is wiser after the fact. None of us were in their position, had limited data, had to make a call NOW. It's probably a lot harder to do than most of us realize (myself included).

Regarding your example above: use modern technology to filter the traffic. System relevant stuff gets through, tourists do not. People native to your country returning from a dangerous location will be detained and quarantined for 50% of the incubation period (if tests are available) or 100% if no tests are yet available.
Yes... I can already hear the "muh humaaan rights" crowd sharpening their pitchforks.

It's probably about infrastructure and stuff like that I reckon. Then again, I ain't no expert on that either. All I know, or rather believe to be true, is that this current crisis pretty much shows how our existing institutions are not really robust to such an outbreak at all. The US is one of the countries hit hardest by this, since as the prime example of an LME, it is extremely lean in its make-up. That allows for massive output and growth at peak conditions, but makes it very susceptible to take bigger hits from disruptions. Lots of stuff should have been done long beforehand, but people just didn't because they didn't take the risks seriously.
I just hope that in the wake of all this, we all don't just 'forget and move on' but rather lay the foundations that will let us more easily weather the next pandemic.

[Poopymonster]

Some are. Most of those who believe in the power of prayer, are not doing what you said. You do not need to go to church to pray.

Seems this guy didn't get the memo.

[Felya]

Idk about you guys but I'm enjoying myself.

Be quet!!! Don’t let the normies know...

The struggle... I want to see humans and interact with humans... it is so lonely to do what ever I want at home... miss everyone who makes my days, such days... oh... oh... so much... thoughts and prayers... oh... the struggle... it’s real...

[Grapemask]

If only more countries could have charts looking as nice as Sweden.

Is this... is this sarcasm? Let me quote yesterday's post:

Probably to the great surprise of our Alternative Stats crowd, but not to literally anyone else, Sweden did not have a good day.



This will continue to be the case so long as the Everything I Don't Like Is Fake News crowd continues to be taken seriously. They're as responsible for this body count as the people who make the piss-poor decisions at the top, because the leaders would get run out on a rail if they didn't have enough of these flat Earthers to prop up their stupidity.

The graph at the end of today will be much worse. Yesterday saw 114 deaths. Today has already seen 170. Sweden's death rate is skyrocketing because of you and your fellow flat Earth society members dragging down the rest of the world with your nonsense.