Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Draco-Onis]

That's not true. At least not for any of the places for which I've checked news reports. Here in Washington, we obviously always counted the nursing home deaths. That was the first big outbreak.

New York definitely has, as well.

What areas do you see not reporting those deaths?

The Trump administration this week is requiring nursing homes to report deaths due to COVID-19, as for New York I think state laws vary on the matter. There's also the fact that nursing homes are currently in shambles to their reporting is iffy at best.

[Forogil]

No... what you posted wasn't the data table at the top of the article; what you posted was a carefully sliced portion of the data table at the top of the article, attempting to make it look "worse" for the US. And you're ignoring the fact that I didn't say the table itself was meaningless, just that the percentage you seem to be highlighting is fairly meaningless.

The actual data table is this:



You'd note, if you weren't attempting to be disingenuous, that the percentage isn't the percentage of missing deaths. Nor is it the percentage of missing deaths above normal. In fact, it doesn't really have anything to do with how many missing deaths there are at all. It's just a note of how high the deaths are in relation to past years. Which basically means that all that percentage shows is how hard that area has been hit by COVID-19.

Interestingly https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries has a slightly different table with a percentage indicating the relation between confirmed covid-19 deaths to excess deaths.

For NYC it was from

Region New York City
Time period Mar 15th-Apr 4th
Covid-19 deaths 4,981
Total excess deaths 5,099
Covid-19 as percentage of excess deaths. 98%

I don't know why it this table up to April 4th had excess deaths and covid-19 deaths matching each other for NYC, but the later table has a difference.

[dribbles]

And your new graph was a week old as well.

And it is even more disingenuous, as it now switches from weekly numbers to just giving a total up to April 3rd, when there had just been one bad week - which wiped out all the slight reduction deaths in the preceding weeks. We now have at least two bad weeks of data:

No disingenuity intended, the figures are the figures.

The only thing wrong with that new graph is that it doesn't take account of UK population growth over the 5 year period. But then that would make the Coronavirus situation look even more unremarkable in the UK considering the extra 2 or 3 million people now here that weren't in 2015.

[Daedius]

Christ, my Brother in Law suffered a mild heart attack so was in hospital... and he ended up picking up COVID-19 there. :/

[Forogil]

No disingenuity intended, the figures are the figures.

The figure is week older than necessary, and it's switching from weekly numbers (that would look bad) to a total (that doesn't look bad yet for that week).

Samuel Longhorne wrote

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Christ, my Brother in Law suffered a mild heart attack so was in hospital... and he ended up picking up COVID-19 there. :/

That's a problem; together with the infections of health-care workers.

Both in itself - and because some people might hear about this and then don't go to the hospital - even if they have a problem that normally require hospital care.

[jonnysensible]

The figure is week older than necessary, and it's switching from weekly numbers (that would look bad) to a total (that doesn't look bad yet for that week).
.

are you trying to tell me that 'chart by brexit facts for EU . org' is a dodgy propaganda outlet tailored to conspiracy theory loving boomers?

[Tuor]

Like i said in my previous post, lets not lose our hopes.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ncock-11976681

[dribbles]

The figure is week older than necessary, and it's switching from weekly numbers (that would look bad) to a total (that doesn't look bad yet for that week).

UK figures are always going to be a week or so out of date. You legally get a week to register the death until which obviously it is not reported.

And what's wrong with looking over a longer time frame rather than focusing in on one week or 1 minute past midnight on a specific date? I'd be willing to bet 2020 twelve month annual death rates will be not be that far from 2015s.

[Crissi]

So Lt Gov dumbass, of "sacrifice for the economy" fame, has doubled down and is like "There are more important things than living"

spoken like a guy that has never valued his parents or grandparents. Such a sociopath. He needs to be willing to live what he preaches instead of expect others to "sacrifice".

[Gorsameth]

I would say I am shocked this has not been posted yet. But then I remembered who post in this thread. That really think Easter and those protest were going to spread Covid-19.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phc....cfm?prid=2328





This has been spreading a lot more then anyone even realized. Even the experts. So the mortality rate is going to be a lot closer to the Flu then anyone thought possible. I am not saying it will be as low as the flu. But based off of LA county data so far. That is a very low mortality rate.

Edit: And I do not post here. I just read the stupid post and laugh at all the people on both sides that think they have a clue what they are talking about. And not using real data and science.

50x lower then 3.4% is still 200k dead in the US. 7x 'regular' flu deaths.

I'd say that is significant.

[Forogil]

UK figures are always going to be a week or so out of date. You legally get a week to register the death until which obviously it is not reported.

Today is April 21st. The graph had data until April 3rd; that's not one week ago - it's more than two weeks ago, and that additional week with a large excess of death puts this years total ahead of the 2015 total.

No-one is fooled by that.

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are you trying to tell me that 'chart by brexit facts for EU . org' is a dodgy propaganda outlet tailored to conspiracy theory loving boomers?

That would be shocking wouldn't it?

[Pohut]

That first graphic you posted has a new one a couple of weeks more up to date. Still unremarkable if you ask me...

This is the fakest graph I've ever seen. facts4eu.org? Really? That's your source? Why not infowars?

[Forogil]

Like i said in my previous post, lets not lose our hopes.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ncock-11976681

Hmm... That seems overly aggressive and could backfire.

It seems that they are combining Phase I and II, and if they plan on making it available in september they must be planning on doing Phase III while the drug is actively being rolled out. (Both are possible.)

The concern is simply this: assume that the virus has an IFR of about 0.5% (seems possible) and the vaccine has a rare side-effect that kills 0.5% of the vaccinated (cannot be ruled out) - we are then likely to miss that in this trial (due to low number of participants) and kill as many with the vaccine as the infection would have killed.

Obviously they could be planning to rolling it out to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions (that are more likely to die of covid-19) - the problem is that we will not know how the drug work for them since they are excluded from the study.

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This is the fakest graph I've ever seen. facts4eu.org? Really? That's your source? Why not infowars?

Actually, because infowars view covid-19 as a threat!

https://www.infowars.com/covid-19-ha...united-states/

I was expecting to find complete lunacy and only found a mild case there.
(Oh, and I think the article mentions forbidden subjects, let's no go there. And of course they think it's lab-made, but still.)

And in another article they even linked to this study (which seems to be from a respectable source), stating that IHME model is fatally flawed:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/...s-critics-say/

Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn’t guide U.S. policies, critics say

[Tuor]

Hmm... That seems overly aggressive and could backfire.

It seems that they are combining Phase I and II, and if they plan on making it available in september they must be planning on doing Phase III while the drug is actively being rolled out. (Both are possible.)

The concern is simply this: assume that the virus has an IFR of about 0.5% (seems possible) and the vaccine has a rare side-effect that kills 0.5% of the vaccinated (cannot be ruled out) - we are then likely to miss that in this trial (due to low number of participants) and kill as many with the vaccine as the infection would have killed.

Obviously they could be planning to rolling it out to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions (that are more likely to die of covid-19) - the problem is that we will not know how the drug work for them since they are excluded from the study.

Agressive times require agressive measures... We can only wait, but they, investigators, can work. And they doing it.

We don't have any time left.

[Belize]

So Lt Gov dumbass, of "sacrifice for the economy" fame, has doubled down and is like "There are more important things than living"

spoken like a guy that has never valued his parents or grandparents. Such a sociopath. He needs to be willing to live what he preaches instead of expect others to "sacrifice".

I'm sure he'll be the first on the line to sacrifice his life for whatever is more important

[PhaelixWW]

It is truly hilarious to observe US posters trying to insert propaganda and assumptions into absolutely everything, including coronavirus data from around the globe
Sometimes I wonder if this site has any moderators at all.

You omitted 3/4 of the actual data from a data table and presented it as meaningful when it wasn't. That's bias, spin, propaganda, whatever you want to call it. I think that fact is obvious to everyone.

Anyway, I'm not american and I don't give a shit about the USA, would you be so kind and stop thinking I do?
Thanks.

I never claimed you were American. Yet the irony is palpable when you consider the case of someone claiming that they don't give a shit about the US when their avatar is an iconic poster of a US president.

[Puupi]

It is truly hilarious to observe US posters trying to insert propaganda and assumptions into absolutely everything, including coronavirus data from around the globe
Sometimes I wonder if this site has any moderators at all.

Anyway, I'm not american and I don't give a shit about the USA, would you be so kind and stop thinking I do?
Thanks.

Where are you from then?

[PhaelixWW]

No disingenuity intended, the figures are the figures.

The choice of figures is what makes it disingenuous. Your chart, aside from being a week old, is just zooming out to avoid all the salient detail that's embarrassingly inconvenient to your position. Otherwise, it's literally from the same data as the chart you chose to ignore in its favor.

The only thing wrong with that new graph is that it doesn't take account of UK population growth over the 5 year period.

No, that's hardly the "only thing wrong" with that graph. Saying it doesn't make it so.

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Where are you from then?

Theoretically from Sweden, as he's been hyping the Swedish approach ad nauseam.

[Puupi]

Theoretically from Sweden, as he's been hyping the Swedish approach ad nauseam.

Speaking of Sweden....

It's sort of terrifying the popularity the chief epidemiologist of Sweden, aka the architect of death, Anders Tegnell is celebrating over there. He is like a superstar in their country; people are advocating "Swede of the Year" award for him, want a statue of Tegnell etc. The support, the rhetoric and unquestionable loyalty the Swedes have for him really resemble Germany in the 1930's with another gentleman who was voted the man of the year and was responsible for multiple genocides later on.

[Shadowferal]

Why the COVID-19 Death Forecasts Are Wrong

On April 9, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the total death toll would likely be far lower than the initial White House estimate. "It looks more like the 60,000 [figure] than the 100,000 to 200,000," he told NBC's TODAY Show. "But having said that, we'd better be careful that we don't say, 'OK, we're doing so well we could pull back.'"

This figure from Fauci is more in line with the widely cited forecast from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). At present, this model suggests that by August 4, there will have been 60,308 coronavirus deaths in the U.S.—with a range of between 34,063 to 140,145. At time of writing, the Johns Hopkins University tracker has recorded 788,000 cases in the U.S., with 42,364 deaths. The IHME model says the country is six days past the peak number of deaths.

Redlener said that the issue with models is they come up with an answer to a question, such as what the fatality rate is, or when the apex of cases will be. "The problem is forecasting is increasingly inaccurate because of the variables," he told Newsweek.

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Protests against coronavirus 'stay-at-home' orders spread across the country

Protesters defied stay-at-home orders on Monday and took to the streets in the capitals of Maine and Pennsylvania, toting American flags and "Don't Tread on Me" banners, and slamming the safety precautions against the coronavirus as an act of "tyranny."

The demonstrations followed a wave of similar protests that started last week in Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, California, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky.

Anti-quarantine protests have also broken out in recent days in Paris, Mumbai, Beirut, Baghdad and Israel.