Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

It's a little odd that you just used the same reasoning that you refuted in your previous post, but anyway, whether Sweden is declining really depends on the window of your averaging. Most sites seem to really prefers a 3-day window, but Sweden's reporting oscillates on a cycle of about ~7-9 days.

Reported cases is not a really useful statistics if every suspected case isn't tested and the number of tests per day are increasing, both of which are true for most countries - Sweden included.

The more relevant concrete statistics is number of patients in ICU and number of deaths, both of which are slowly decreasing in Sweden.

As for the strange 7-9 cycles there is a simple explanation for the 7-day cycle seen in most countries (Sweden is just a bit more extreme). It may be deep kept secret, but I will reveal it anyway:

Seven days is the work-week with less work during the weekend. Additionally during the spring there are a large number of extra holidays in most countries (Easter etc, first of May, VE and related national holidays).

[starlights1]

The Sweden argument is fairly easy to counter:

"How does Sweden compare to another nation in the region that is like them in many if not all aspects, such as Norway?"

And the answer on that is not good. This article is a good two weeks old but it comparison Norway with Sweden

Now people will continue to deny whatever does not fit in their bubble or has it not presented itself yet through a channel they use to do the thinking for them.
They are still busy in deciding if the virus is a terrible thing or not, so you wouldn't be able to convince them as they haven't even evolved past that talking point yet.

It's not that straightforward, there are so many other metrics you need to consider. Sweden is more active and has a lot more international travellers compared to Norway.

[Gorsameth]

Doubt they woudn't report at least the proper amount of deaths and people in hospital.

its been how many weeks now? and pretty much every week there are less reports during the weekend and then it catches back up on monday/tuesday.

The issue isn't nurses or doctors but administrative personal both in the places doing the reporting as where it is being collected.

[Forogil]

its been how many weeks now? and pretty much every week there are less reports during the weekend and then it catches back up on monday/tuesday.

The issue isn't nurses or doctors but administrative personal both in the places doing the reporting as where it is being collected.

I agree that we should know better by now, and it's really annoying when you see news organizations falling into the same trap.

However, I'm not sure it's only administrative personell causing the delay - but I believe there also some additional issues (and, of course, in some cases the administrative duties fall on health-care workers who might prioritize patients).

For reported cases there might be less testing during weekends - especially for PCR tests that anyway take a few days, and for countries that count deaths accurately it may take extra time to check if the dead had covid-19 - and no real need to rush that during the weekend.

[Not A Cat]

Massachusetts is slowly starting to reopen, but until further notice everyone is required to wear some form of face mask when outside and avoid large gatherings.

It's looking like schools are going to remain closed for the remainder of the school year.

[Granyala]

They also took a gamble on the whole herd immunity with us not yet knowing how effective this is long term.

I think this will be the kicker that decides whether Swedens approach was a valid alternative or not.
If the immunity is too short to be useful, they accelerated the process for nothing.

As for the virus being 10x more deadly: you still need to take the (currently unknown) % of infected into account before making any judgments.
If 10x more people have been infected compared to Norway, their numbers aren't that catastrophic.
Them failing to protect at least the vulnerable groups is inexcusable though.

[szechuan]

Americas food supply chain may get infected by the Coronavirus since some Meat Packing plants are refusing to close down even though the majority of workers got infected.

They're putting not only other workers at risk but public too because health officials have said that coronavirus strains can live at low and freezing temperatures and on food packaging.

- - - Updated - - -

I think this will be the kicker that decides whether Swedens approach was a valid alternative or not.
If the immunity is too short to be useful, they accelerated the process for nothing.[/B]

It is not a Valid Alternative, it will never be as it requires people to sacrifice others including people with underlying conditions such as Children who have Kawasaki Disease.

Scientists still don't even completely understand the Coronavirus as 85 children have been admitted to the ICU.

Herd Immunity should only be used as a Last Resort.

[Granyala]

It is not a Valid Alternative, it will never be as it requires people to sacrifice others including people with underlying conditions such as Children who have Kawasaki Disease.

Societies sacrifice people all the time. Yes, even yours and mine. Just look at what or lifestyle does to the rest of the world. We've just grown used to the effect that the sick and dying aren't our countrymen.
Whether it is worth it or not, only they can decide for themselves. If the Swedes think it is, we get no say in the matter unless their approach is a direct threat to us (Finland, Norway, maybe?).

[szechuan]

Societies sacrifice people all the time. Yes, even yours and mine. Just look at what or lifestyle does to the rest of the world. We've just grown used to the effect that the sick and dying aren't our countrymen.

And it's the countries Job to also minimize Death and Risk among it's Citizens especially among Children and the Elderly.

Whether it is worth it or not, only they can decide for themselves. If the Swedes think it is, we get no say in the matter unless their approach is a direct threat to us (Finland, Norway, maybe?).

Who said they can't? It's not a Valid Alternative anywhere else and should be used as a Last Resort.

[Captain N]

So the Johns Hopkins University had to get into this because of the Right Wing push for Herd Immunity -- this is what they had to say:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...YyZqBh-OE1Lsd8

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

That's a hell of a trade off.

[Deja Thoris]

So the Johns Hopkins University had to get into this because of the Right Wing push for Herd Immunity -- this is what they had to say:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...YyZqBh-OE1Lsd8

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

That's a hell of a trade off.

Maaan, just relax restrictions, you'll reach herd immunity well quicker!

[PhaelixWW]

So the Johns Hopkins University had to get into this because of the Right Wing push for Herd Immunity -- this is what they had to say:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...YyZqBh-OE1Lsd8

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

That's a hell of a trade off.

And it's a low, low, low estimate, too.

[stevenho]

This side of EU things are almost back to normal.
The thing I miss the most is restaurants, gonna be 2 more weeks for that probably. Not being able to sit down and enjoy a good meal is frustrating.
I wish it was like Germany where restaurants start opening already https://www.france24.com/en/20200510...pen-in-germany

Streets and parks are super crowded though, thanks to the very warm weather.

[Forogil]

At first I wasn't going to answer, but then I realized that the discussion and the problem are linked.

First and foremost the origin was this hyperbole:

SARS-CoV-2, on the other hand, has an estimated R0 of 2-4. Nothing is going to slow it down to below 1 short of extreme measures.

Which is clearly false, as Sweden has managed that with less extreme measures - and S. Korea managed without lockdown (at least until recently - we will see), and even though the testing and contact tracing may seem excessive it doesn't raise to the level that most I would call extreme measures.

That was followed by the goal-post moving of saying that even if Swedish schools weren't closed still 30-40% of children were home, according to a retired school teacher, who for some absurd reason would have detailed knowledge of people staying home from school on a nation-wide scale.

That shows a lack of critical thinking.

And then I noticed: https://www.economist.com/internatio...ens-inequality

Closures will hurt the youngest schoolchildren most. “You can make up for lost maths with summer school. But you can’t easily do that with the stuff kids learn very young,” says Matthias Doepke of Northwestern University. Social and emotional skills such as critical thinking, perseverance and self-control are predictors of many things, from academic success and employment to good health and the likelihood of going to jail.

25% were out, and it didn't make news until now. The reason it wasn't major news is likely because it's hardly shocking.

You mean that it didn't make English news that 25% were home in some areas.

Applying google search and translate one can find that kids went back to school earlier, in the socio-economically challenged areas where the children stayed at home the most - and also need school:

https://www.svd.se/hog-skolfranvaro-...re-klarar-nian

In the municipal compulsory schools in Stockholm, the absence was 32 percent week 12, ie the week that started on March 16, when the Public Health Agency stated at a press conference that there was community spread of the corona virus in Stockholm.
As a comparison figure, the city has taken on March 25, 2019, when 7 percent of the students were absent.
Week 13, the absence had dropped to 27 percent and by week 14 it was at 25 percent. Week 15 was Easter holidays and after that the absence dropped to 14 percent.
…
But after Easter they are stricter and staff have called parents and asked them to send the children to school if they are healthy.

And before you ask - what about other areas?

Some seemed to have a similar trajectory - but in some the papers just report that nothing was happening - which is kind of the definition of a slow news day:
https://www.vetlandaposten.se/artike...an-som-vanligt

Despite corona pandemic - low absenteeism in elementary school: "It's almost as usual"

https://www.vk.se/2020-04-29/inga-la...ning-pa-skolor

After the Easter holidays, there are no reports that more than usual among staff and students are absent due to illness.

Obviously there were also early reports of high number of children and in some cases teachers being home (which can be due to symptoms: for covid-19 or the common cold) - but from March and beginning of April:
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/cor...ro-i-skolorna/ from April 2

"In some cases it has not been understood that the school is open" - extremely high absenteeism in Södertälje's schools

https://nxt.barometern.se/nybro/stor...und-av-corona/ March 18

Many parents keep their children at home from the preschool in the municipality. According to Marie Carlsson, area manager, between 60 and 70 percent of children are missing. The high absence rate is part of the fact that many parents take the recommendations of the Public Health Authority seriously. They keep their children at home with the slightest cold symptoms.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/va...ta-fran-skolan March 29

As a consequence of the corona virus, the absenteeism among pupils in primary school has increased substantially. Last week, on average, about 30 percent of students were away from school in Värmland's two largest municipalities.

The Stockholm region is 23% of the country's population, and has 36% of the country's cases. It has the most cases, sure, but it's not even the region with the highest infection rate. Both Sörmland and Örebro have a higher case rate.

Those regions have a smaller population and they are all next to each other geographically.

[Shadowferal]

Americas food supply chain may get infected by the Coronavirus since some Meat Packing plants are refusing to close down even though the majority of workers got infected.

They're putting not only other workers at risk but public too because health officials have said that coronavirus strains can live at low and freezing temperatures and on food packaging.

CDC says: In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from food products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient, refrigerated, or frozen temperatures.

[Forogil]

So the Johns Hopkins University had to get into this because of the Right Wing push for Herd Immunity -- this is what they had to say:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...YyZqBh-OE1Lsd8

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity.

Why are people so bad at math?

The number of actual cases is a lot higher than the confirmed case, so calculation gives the wrong result - but anyway:
With 25k infected per day and 308*0.7 million to infects it would be well into the 2040s before herd immunity is reached, since 308,000,000*0.7/25,000=8,624.

Why are people just reporting this - without even trying to see what the result really is?

[breadisfunny]

looks like wisconsin is slowly reopening up. https://www.tmj4.com/news/coronaviru...ross-the-state

Disc golf courses at Milwaukee County Parks will reopen Saturday with social distancing requirements and adjustments.

For the time being, no baskets or benches will be available on the courses as a safety precaution.

also the governor has released a best practices and guidelines book for businesses to follow as they deem fit. could start reopening by 15th.

[stevenho]

Golf courses closing was among the most bizzare things during this ordeal. Literally acres between people but NOPE, closed.
Fortunately they finally opened last week and it wasn't even crowded.

[PhaelixWW]

Why are people so bad at math?

The number of actual cases is a lot higher than the confirmed case, so calculation gives the wrong result - but anyway:
With 25k infected per day and 308*0.7 million to infects it would be well into the 2040s before herd immunity is reached, since 308,000,000*0.7/25,000=8,624.

Why are people just reporting this - without even trying to see what the result really is?

Because we understand that JH is specifying "confirmed" cases, as opposed to actual cases. 10-20x the number of confirmed cases being asymptomatic unconfirmed cases would mean 250-500k cases a day, which would cause herd immunity threshold to be reached in 460-920 days. That's in line with late 2021 being the earliest possible date.

I guess you just didn't understand that distinction, and decided to shitpost instead.

[Stelio Kontos]

https://news.yahoo.com/rise-german-v...200849282.html

Germany's coronavirus spread appears to be picking up speed again, official data showed Sunday, just days after Chancellor Angela Merkel said the country could gradually return to normal.

The Robert Koch Institute for public health said Germany's closely watched reproduction rate (R0) had climbed to 1.1, meaning 10 people with COVID-19 infect on average 11 others.

The RKI has warned that for the infection rate to be deemed under control and slowing down, the R0 has to stay below one.

It's totally ok to reopen, guys. What's the worst that could happen?