Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Cynep]

Crap, they readjusted numbers for the few last weeks... I was celebrating the decrease too soon Still, the good news is since July 30th until today cases increased only 0.11% in 15 days, so it's still flat.

Oh, really? Rolllllll tape:

You claimed that the world had peaked. Peaked, as in reached its highest point, meaning all other points after would be lower.

You should save your pity for yourself because you're right about everyone seeing this.

Yes, I'm still claiming that world has peaked and is flat now, that wall of quotes says the same: the world has peaked; it's 15 days ago now BTW, or even 20 if we treat the word "peaked" figuratively ;] (word "plateau" comes to mind)

And no, I never said "all other points after would be lower", I actually said the opposite: there can be multiple peaks. I think this is the source of your confusion - you mistakenly believe there cannot be multiple peaks.

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261408. Very close to your prediction.

They readjusted the numbers, check for yourself. It's 260401 now, so 12/8 became lower than 31/7.

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Unfortunately it won't last, I see more and more people becoming lax each passing week.

Everyone has "fatigue," tired of hearing about something that most aren't affected by it. Teens and college students are currently the problem demographic.

Yes. An emergency stops being an emergency if it lasts for half a year, so only sustainable measures can be maintained.

[kaid]

Yes, toilet paper was being sold for like 50 bucks per 6 pack on Amazon. You couldn’t buy toilet paper online, until like June. While the 5G conspiracy is going strong, although I have not heard of morons burning them down in a while.

Edit: OMG 2020 is so fucked, I’m reminiscing about the long past of... 2 months ago... it is one thing we can’t blame on Trump... he had nothing to do with people thinking covid attacks their butt hole...

It wasn't that people thought covid was attacking their ass. There are two different not connected supply chains for TP. One is for business level TP which is for office/work place use generally lower quality but sold in big pallet lots. The other is the higher grade TP people use at home. So once everybody was forced to work from home they were also doing all their pooping at home so one supply chain was super stressed and the other couldn't give their TP away but the supply chains were so disconected they could not be redirected in any short time frame.

[Rasulis]

I hope people realize that right now, in the US, the weather is suboptimal for transmission of Covid-19 virus. It is hot and humid. If we don't get it under control now, once winter arrive, and the cold starts to set in, the number of cases will explode. Read up on why "Flu is more common in winter than in summer."

[bmjclark]

There is no federal government in France. We could with central government or state if you want.

Ah, fair enough. I guess I misunderstood what I read and admittedly don't know much about France.

[Specialka]

Ah, fair enough. I guess I misunderstood what I read and admittedly don't know much about France.

No big deal, just wanted to clarify that about France.

[Edge-]

https://www.ajc.com/news/white-house...CSI3A3KTTGGIY/

Even the White House is calling out Georgia and Brian Kemp for being fucking stupid as fuck and having policies that have allowed for the virus to spread in the state. They're encouraging Brian Kemp shut down non-essential businesses and mandate masks, like a responsible leader should do in those circumstances.

[Shadowferal]

Yeah but who listens to the White House?

[Zantos]

https://www.ajc.com/news/white-house...CSI3A3KTTGGIY/

Even the White House is calling out Georgia and Brian Kemp for being fucking stupid as fuck and having policies that have allowed for the virus to spread in the state. They're encouraging Brian Kemp shut down non-essential businesses and mandate masks, like a responsible leader should do in those circumstances.

I find it hard to take the White House calling anyone out seriously when they want schools to reopen despite how bad we are seeing it going now.

[Thee ANCOM]

in case this hasn't been said yet: but the US is well on its way to being a failed state.

fuckers in our government are so ideologically opposed to the idea of the government doing it's job to even maintain its very existence if it means "helping people". when almost 50% of renters in this country are evicted from their homes and the government decides to do NOTHING it only makes the case the whole fucking system needs to be burned down.

[Forogil]

I hope people realize that right now, in the US, the weather is suboptimal for transmission of Covid-19 virus. It is hot and humid. If we don't get it under control now, once winter arrive, and the cold starts to set in, the number of cases will explode. Read up on why "Flu is more common in winter than in summer."

This is not the flu - and it's not clear that it in itself will cause such an increase. The estimate of the weather effect for sars-cov-2 indicate that it's minor.
Obviously if people relax - we get an increase as we see now - regardless of season.

What many fear is that flu and the common cold (that we know are more common during winter - we just don't know exactly why) will cause problems - overwhelmed testing capacity due to similar symptoms, and people thinking that it's just the common cold and going out and spreading sars-cov-2.

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It wasn't that people thought covid was attacking their ass.

It actually does, WHO says that diarrhea is a less common symptom.

There are two different not connected supply chains for TP. One is for business level TP which is for office/work place use generally lower quality but sold in big pallet lots. The other is the higher grade TP people use at home. So once everybody was forced to work from home they were also doing all their pooping at home so one supply chain was super stressed and the other couldn't give their TP away but the supply chains were so disconected they could not be redirected in any short time frame.

What I heard was that some had thought that face masks use the same paper as TP and thus thought TP might run out, and bought everything, and then pictures of empty shelves were posted leading others to buy TP (also in other countries) etc. Both virus and stupidity spreads.

[Tuor]

This is not the flu...

Jesus, after 8 months we still discussing that?? Jesus.

[Rubon]

Seasonal flu kills a lot of people, but those are nearly all at the end of life. The average victim is only robbed of a couple of months of life.

Corona robs the average victim of some 14 years - and the death rate is much higher.

[Rasulis]

This is not the flu - and it's not clear that it in itself will cause such an increase. The estimate of the weather effect for sars-cov-2 indicate that it's minor.
Obviously if people relax - we get an increase as we see now - regardless of season.

What many fear is that flu and the common cold (that we know are more common during winter - we just don't know exactly why) will cause problems - overwhelmed testing capacity due to similar symptoms, and people thinking that it's just the common cold and going out and spreading sars-cov-2.

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It actually does, WHO says that diarrhea is a less common symptom.


What I heard was that some had thought that face masks use the same paper as TP and thus thought TP might run out, and bought everything, and then pictures of empty shelves were posted leading others to buy TP (also in other countries) etc. Both virus and stupidity spreads.

Covid-19 is not flu. However, the mode of transmission is very similar.

How COVID-19 Spreads by CDC

How Flu Spreads by CDC

[Easo]

Found out yesterday that someone in the office has caught it a week ago (just a few people working from office, mostly just empty space now), everybody rushed to do tests and office is now closed for the second time this year.
Well, at least for all of us the test came back negative. Phew...

[PhaelixWW]

Crap, they readjusted numbers for the few last weeks... I was celebrating the decrease too soon

The slight readjustment in the numbers doesn't change the fact that you were already wrong before it happened. This is just your lame attempt to avoid admitting it.

Still, the good news is since July 30th until today cases increased only 0.11% in 15 days, so it's still flat.

Lulz, it's not flat; it went down 2.6%, then up 2.7%, and it's continuing to rise. Would you consider a standard bell curve flat simply because it starts and ends with 0?

Yes, I'm still claiming that world has peaked and is flat now

Which means I was right when I said:

...you specifically predicted that they would never go above the mark seen at the end of July, which was wrong...

and you were wrong when you said:

Where did I do that? You're lying about what I said...

Thanks for admitting it.

...the world has peaked; it's 15 days ago now BTW, or even 20 if we treat the word "peaked" figuratively...

I'm not sure how the heck one can use "peaked" figuratively...

Regardless, the world didn't peak 15 days ago (or 20 day ago... figuratively... wtf?), because yesterday's 260795 was the highest 7-day average of the pandemic so far.

I say "so far", because today is going to be higher still. You know, because the rate is still going up.

And no, I never said "all other points after would be lower", I actually said the opposite: there can be multiple peaks. I think this is the source of your confusion - you mistakenly believe there cannot be multiple peaks.

You really, really need to work on that reading comprehension. You predicted that all other points after would be lower, because you predicted that there wouldn't be multiple peaks. Admitting that a thing is possible is not the same thing as "predicting" it. And you specifically stated that you didn't think it would happen. If you claim that something probably won't happen, then you can't logically later claim that you predicted that it would happen.

But also, no, you can't have multiple peaks on the same wave. That's why "peak" is defined as "the highest point".

They readjusted the numbers, check for yourself. It's 260401 now, so 12/8 became lower than 31/7.

And 8/13 is now 260795, which is still higher than 7/31. And 8/14 is going to be higher than 8/13 and 7/31. You're pretty much making my point for me.

Thanks!

[Cynep]

Lulz, it's not flat; it went down 2.6%, then up 2.7%, and it's continuing to rise. Would you consider a standard bell curve flat simply because it starts and ends with 0?

It was your claim that 2.6% decrease is not a decrease, not mine

I'm not sure how the heck one can use "peaked" figuratively...

What, you forgot your heated emotional debate where you claimed that "peaked"="over" figuratively?

Which means I was right when I said:

and you were wrong when you said:

Thanks for admitting it.

You really, really need to work on that reading comprehension. You predicted that all other points after would be lower, because you predicted that there wouldn't be multiple peaks. Admitting that a thing is possible is not the same thing as "predicting" it. And you specifically stated that you didn't think it would happen. If you claim that something probably won't happen, then you can't logically later claim that you predicted that it would happen.

But also, no, you can't have multiple peaks on the same wave. That's why "peak" is defined as "the highest point".

No matter how many times you repeat your lies, they don't become truth. You quote me saying "it can go higher" and claim I said "it can't go higher" in that quote. Really?

You sure like your gaslighting personal attacks, but you prove yourself wrong with your own posts. Not worth my time.

And to plagiarize @Yadryonych, that was the peak at one time.

[PhaelixWW]

It was your claim that 2.6% decrease is not a decrease, not mine

Again, that reading comprehension bites you in the ass. Go back and re-read what I said: I never said it wasn't a decrease, only that that level of decrease didn't constitute demonstrative evidence of a peak.

What, you forgot your heated emotional debate where you claimed that "peaked"="over" figuratively

Aaaand oh for two, despite my repeated attempts to remedy your failures. I never used the word "peaked" figuratively, I used the word "over" figuratively. It's sad that you still just can't tell the difference.

No matter how many times you repeat your lies, they don't become truth. You quote me saying "it can go higher" and claim I said "it can't go higher" in that quote. Really?

Now you're oh for three. You claimed that the world had peaked, which by definition would mean that the highest point had already been reached. And while you tried to claim that it was possible that you were wrong and that cases might go up again, you repeatedly predicted that it wouldn't happen.

Don't blame me if your position is incoherent and inconsistent.

And to plagiarize Yadryonych, that was the peak at one time.

That was never the peak. People tried then, just like you now, to claim that it was a peak, but it objectively was not. And sorry, but I believe Yadryonych was actually poking fun at you with his post, though I'm not terribly surprised that you failed to understand that.

You sure like your gaslighting personal attacks, but you prove yourself wrong with your own posts. Not worth my time.

You're the one coming in here with ridiculous, nonsensical declarations. And when your errors are pointed out, instead of just admitting your mistake, you continue to attempt to obfuscate, deflect, and project.

But we can go back to the beginning and I can restate the simple truth:

The world as a whole has not peaked.

There is no 3% "soft cap".

And that's all that really should be needed to be said about it.

[Forogil]

Covid-19 is not flu. However, the mode of transmission is very similar.

How COVID-19 Spreads by CDC

How Flu Spreads by CDC

No-one is denying that both are respiratory diseases spreading in a similar way.
But that doesn't imply that they both will be seasonal to a similar extent (especially as we don't fully understand the seasonality of the flu) - it just makes it possible.

When actually looking the weather effect seem minor (but in the expected direction): https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefwe...0000115852.pdf
And schools don't seem to be driving the disease as suggested explaining the flu seasonality: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7
And if increased spread of respiratory diseases during winter is due to vitamin D deficiency it would seem that many stay at home orders have had a counter-productive element; but that wouldn't explain current outbreaks in places that didn't have stay at home orders.

Thus the current outbreaks in India, Texas, and Florida don't necessarily imply that it will spread a lot more during the fall; but it could just be that summer doesn't stop it (as some had hoped) and it will just spread a bit more during the fall (if we don't change things; and there will certainly be changes - the question is how large and in what direction).

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Jesus, after 8 months we still discussing that?? Jesus.

Well, people sort of know that it isn't the flu - but they still think of it as "the flu with another name"; as a disease that spreads, kills, and etc as the flu.

[Zan15]

Well I for one am sure glad the members of US Congress are getting their much deserved vacation. We can wait 3 or 6 more weeks to address these minor issues.

sigh, it has nothing to do at all with the moron in the white house who refused to negotiate with congress at all. Refused meetings. Refused to budge.

Nope
Nada.

I mean congress can't work while in their home states, but Trump somehow can work on a golf course every other week in NJ and Florida? What kind of fuckery logic is that?

You also know congress can be called back to vote on a bill/agreement in just a few days. So where is Trumps agreement? Oh is he full of shit again. Hey we are still waiting for that healthcare plan he said he was announcing in "2 weeks" 4+ weeks ago.....

fucking the irony, the complacency the outright pathetic bad faith arguments....etc etc

[Deja Thoris]

They have to put a bill in front of his desk in order for him to refuse. Congress can also have passed a bill ahead of time. That's not Trump's fault. Its their job to pass bills and they failed Americans in the middle of a Pandemic and Depression.

The leader is responsible for stuff that happens on his watch, ergo its his fault.