Calculating wasted time/pulls because of people with low survi

[kaminaris]

Long story short, I need math formula or algorithm to calculate how much time we waste as a raid group when we play with people sub 90% survivability.

For example if we have most people with 99% survi on some boss progress and 3 people with 89% survi, how will that impact the the actual number of pulls.
This surely can be calculated.

Or maybe even more advanced one to calculate how much are we going to waste on farm bosses because of such people.

[Hellobolis]

pretty weird thing to ask, especially with such high percentages.

cause realistically the answer is going to be: your guild can't or won't replace those people, so you are stuck with them either way.

as for how much time you are going to lose, not much cause with those percentages you will have combatresses to spare even after ressing them. where do you even look that stuff up on logs, all i ever look at is how early people die/to what they die.

like honestly, just doing some basic napkin math, you are are looking at 1 death every 3 pulls orso on average. and the worst case where you have like 3-4 deaths in one pull will be very rare.

[BeepBoo]

Right, it's not necessarily the individual survival rates that are the issue here. It's that on hard bosses you haven't beaten yet, you typically need the whole squad running at near 100% to get the victory.

Individually, each person might only get 1 death, but when 1 death nukes a run, and everyone is taking turns being the person who fucks up, THAT'S when you start to lose a lot of time.

[Omedon]

Nothing good can come of over-analyzing these stats.

It's real simple: If you feel your time is being "wasted," you're either not having fun or not enjoying the company. It's on you to decide if this is still something you're enjoying.

If not, stop. You don't need a number to validate these feelings.

[Relapses]

Why do you need a math equation? Micromanaging your raid like this will just make you grossly unpopular. If you have an issue with an individual player, teach them how to track their own survivability and let them improve themselves.

[kaminaris]

Guys, this calculations is exactly what I need to convince people to shape up. Long story short, I am in a guild lower than my expectations and skill simply because I have couple of friends here and I don't care as much anymore.

However farm is painful because we waste too much time on bosses we already killed mostly because of stupid deaths.

And there is a guild one step ahead of us while having all-gray logs, with WW monk and enh shammy BUT they do farm like clockwork robots and they just don't die.

Also curiosity.

[Marrilaife]

Why do you need a math equation? Micromanaging your raid like this will just make you grossly unpopular. If you have an issue with an individual player, teach them how to track their own survivability and let them improve themselves.

I have a friend in an underperforming guild like that and half the time raid leader doesn't even investigate why did a person die and to what, they are just getting shat on because they died. Oh you got a debuff you can't do anything about and healer didn't dispel you or heal through it? You suck. Oh you soaked something that needs 3+ players and others didn't go in? You suck. Oh someone ran through you and dropped some puddle on top of you instead of out of the raid? Well you know where this is going...

I'm trying to convince him to find a guild that's either better progressed or more reasonable, but he's too shy to do so.

[Einsz]

Guys, this calculations is exactly what I need to convince people to shape up. Long story short, I am in a guild lower than my expectations and skill simply because I have couple of friends here and I don't care as much anymore.

However farm is painful because we waste too much time on bosses we already killed mostly because of stupid deaths.

And there is a guild one step ahead of us while having all-gray logs, with WW monk and enh shammy BUT they do farm like clockwork robots and they just don't die.

Also curiosity.

You should really look for another guild instead of doing shit like that.

[Moggie]

Guys, this calculations is exactly what I need to convince people to shape up. Long story short, I am in a guild lower than my expectations and skill simply because I have couple of friends here and I don't care as much anymore.

However farm is painful because we waste too much time on bosses we already killed mostly because of stupid deaths.

And there is a guild one step ahead of us while having all-gray logs, with WW monk and enh shammy BUT they do farm like clockwork robots and they just don't die.

Also curiosity.

Yeah, trying to do something like this will make you very unpopular. Remember, at the end of the day it is still a game. When somebody like you comes in and tries bringing down morale as a whole by constantly singling out folks, or even your raid as a whole then they'll most likely either leave or just not show up or worse, just meet up to gkick you. If they're below your expectations and "skills" then move along. You can either choose to not let it get to you and enjoy things or go to another guild that may reach whatever expectations you think you're at vs others. TBH, I imagine nobody will ever meet your expectations no matter what so this will be on you to decide which way to go.

[Kumorii]

why not just use logs and show them damage taken and how much more it is compared to others?

[Biomega]

Trying to reduce this to a numerical metric is counterproductive.

Look through logs and see what people are dying to. Usually it's very easy to identify the problem. Tell the guilty parties not to stand in fire. That'll be a lot more productive in the long run than going "your survivability index is only .78 you gotta pump that to .85 at least by next raid buddy".

[Ninix]

Guys, this calculations is exactly what I need to convince people to shape up. Long story short, I am in a guild lower than my expectations and skill simply because I have couple of friends here and I don't care as much anymore.

However farm is painful because we waste too much time on bosses we already killed mostly because of stupid deaths.

And there is a guild one step ahead of us while having all-gray logs, with WW monk and enh shammy BUT they do farm like clockwork robots and they just don't die.

Also curiosity.

So you're playing with people who obviously don't want to get into too much competition (and probably don't have the skill to), ans your plan is to throw them a freaking formula to prove them how much they suck and are unworthy of tour time.

Yeah, what could go wrong with this ?

[omeomorfismo]

there isnt any "formula" to calculate the time spent with so few informations.
what is the correlation between the survivability and a wipe for example?

[HuxNeva]

Long story short, I need math formula or algorithm to calculate how much time we waste as a raid group when we play with people sub 90% survivability.

For example if we have most people with 99% survi on some boss progress and 3 people with 89% survi, how will that impact the the actual number of pulls.
This surely can be calculated.

Or maybe even more advanced one to calculate how much are we going to waste on farm bosses because of such people.

Waste of time. You either know why you wiped or don't. In the latter case, some esoteric coarse grained formulaic argument will tell you nothing. First tip: forbid public logs. At least that should contain the meter whoring for 'rank' and hopefully get people to focus on mechanics more.

[Kaver]

Nothing good can come of over-analyzing these stats.

It's real simple: If you feel your time is being "wasted," you're either not having fun or not enjoying the company. It's on you to decide if this is still something you're enjoying.

If not, stop. You don't need a number to validate these feelings.

If a raid is wiping over and over because of a few people who cannot survive then it is a problem that should be addressed. Those people should be told that if it keeps happen they will lose their raid spots. This could for example apply to people who keep getting hit by the green balls on mythic Hivemind. If you cannot dodge basic shit then you’re not good enough for mythic.

[LordVargK]

Very simple calculation (but this does not consider probability laws and is therefore an average over infinite trys):

Boss health = H
Raid DPS = X
DPS of raider i = xi, with i being integers 0,1,...,n
Survivalbility of raider i = si

optimal bossfight time = H/X (meaning 100% survivalbility)

Time with Deaths: = H/(si*xi|for all raiders i in the raid)

Time wasted = time with deaths - optimal bossfight time

If Time with Deaths > Total time possible (before Boss enrages/healers go oom), then you will not kill the boss (on average).

[Loveliest]

Before you throw numbers at people, make sure you absolutely know the people are dying because of personal mistakes and avoidable mechanics.

For example, on Ursoc or the dog in the new raid, if the offtank doesn't taunt properly, the main tank dies. If you came to the main tank and told him his survivability was what's causing the wipe, the main tank would probably talk to raid leader / guild master to kick you. And not because you picked on him but because you have no clue what is going on and how things work and you're also causing drama over your own inability to understand.

Another thing - make sure you're perfect. And I mean it. If you have even one death that's from a personal mistake, you'll look like the guy who tries to point out other people's mistakes so people don't notice his own mistakes. Doesn't matter if you have one mistake and they have 100, you can't have any at all. Everyone will watch you like a hawk from then on.

Also, make sure the guild is also the type who takes this kind of criticism. Because if it's not, if it's more like a friends guild, you'll make it uncomfortable for everyone and the raids will go even worse. As a note, tell the raid leader / gm the numbers, not to the actual people.

To be fair, like a lot of people say here, it's better if you find a better fit - once you start thinking like, there's no fix for it. What you're looking for is to basically have people like yourself only, who think they're above the rest (and may or may no be) and who are always ready to leave if nothing ties them down. This will essentially make the guild disband once you get on a harder boss for a couple weeks, because everyone will think they're better than the rest and it's the rest of the people's fault boss isn't going down. Then you end up jumping guild every tier, set on "I just want to kill the end boss, don't care about guildies" and sometimes you'll do it, sometimes you won't, your own morale going up and down with the increasing number of guilds you go through that disband.
Sorry for rant - I know I didn't answer your question, but you won't really find one because mathematically it's very complex (a dps dying doesn't mean it's wipe for example). I just hope you're aware what this train of thought will lead to.

[Mirishka]

Guys, this calculations is exactly what I need to convince people to shape up. Long story short, I am in a guild lower than my expectations and skill simply because I have couple of friends here and I don't care as much anymore.

However farm is painful because we waste too much time on bosses we already killed mostly because of stupid deaths.

And there is a guild one step ahead of us while having all-gray logs, with WW monk and enh shammy BUT they do farm like clockwork robots and they just don't die.

Also curiosity.

Sounds like a great way to demoralize people and kill your raid group.

/thumbsup

[Drusin]

Another thing - make sure you're perfect. And I mean it. If you have even one death that's from a personal mistake, you'll look like the guy who tries to point out other people's mistakes so people don't notice his own mistakes. Doesn't matter if you have one mistake and they have 100, you can't have any at all. Everyone will watch you like a hawk from then on.

No, he doesn't have to be perfect just substantially better than the person. Everyone goofs, even the best raiders in the world will goof, but 100 goofs? I guess it depends on the time frame. 100 goofs in 1 night or 100 goofs over a tier? If they've goofed 100 times in a night they'll probably get kicked so it won't matter.

[Feral Druid ist Op]

Dog players will always remain dog players, no matter what facts you put it on the table,

I raid with one of my 3 alts in a super bad guild WR 800 or so on weekends and have tried to help so many people in the guild with logs and facts that doesn't work unless they want to improve themselves.

Just leave the guild and be done with them.