Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Biglog]

I wonder if the GOP will do Monday morning quarterbacking of the fear mongering strategy they used for this 2020 election. Biden was VP for 8 years and the country didn't end, socialism/communism wasn't implemented, Sharia Law wasn't implemented, guns weren't banned, ammo wasn't banned. Nothing that they fear mongered about came true. They were wrong on every point. So trying to claim that now a Biden Presidency will lead to destruction of the country is just not something the general public buys. That's why most negative attacks against Biden flopped. Biden was in the Senate for over 30 years and VP for 8. Like McCain, negatively attacking people with lifetime career of serving the country like that tends to backfire because the public has already had over 40 years to know the guy and his record.

[Jastall]

Even seniors are turning on Trump.

It turns out telling seniors that you don't give a shit if they die is a bad strategy.

Seniors and women are voting for Biden, and we have record-breaking early voting. It's not looking good for Trump.

That makes me more optimistic than any poll. Seniors especially have that crucial leg up over young and middle-aged people; they actually vote, and in droves, and are an important demographic in several swing states.

[kaelleria]

Were these the polls that were weighted by education? What a horrible model. How about you actually collect representative samples rather than doing post facto and arbitrary weighting?

Urgency to update polling numbers and high costs of proper sampling is probably the cause of this. it feels like pollsters don't understand the timescale of voter decision making because if they did they wouldn't be putting out new poll results every week. Although these dudes offer some insights into how it might be possible to properly use high frequency, nonrepresentative polling:

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/...81315669083-17

WTF are you talking about. No one was weighting by education in 2016. You can look at 538's 2016 data, rcp's data, etc... It was a 5 point miss in PA and the trendline of polls showed Clinton's lead collapsing. A 5 point miss is decently large.

This year they are weighting by education and there's no evidence to show Biden's lead collapsing in PA.

[Breccia]

This Axios article goes over the real issue the Party of Trump has.

We all know Trump appeals most strongly to white males, without college degrees, in rural areas.

All three of those factors are shrinking.

The GOP was in trouble before, that's why they allied themselves with the gun nuts and the Religious Right. (Refusing to feed the hungry, clothe the naked, and heal the sick are not Christian values, and yet, here we are) But they've already done that.

Republicans have hemorrhaged support among suburban women during the Trump years. Now, the GOP even struggles in exurbs.

The US is increasingly less racist, less sexist, and less homophobic -- oh we're not done with any of those, but the times keep changing. Even attracting the KKK and literal torch-carrying Nazis isn't enough anymore.

Not mentioned in the article, of course, is Trump destroying US farms with his failed trade war. So not only is he intentionally working with a shrinking^3 voter base, he's also attacking those same voters directly.

And it's not like a spoiled "billionaire" toddler is attractive to the "criminals" and "rapists" who've been stuck in minimum-wage jobs all their life, either.

The Republican Party can survive this, but not in the direction they're going.

[Eviscero]

WTF are you talking about. No one was weighting by education in 2016. You can look at 538's 2016 data, rcp's data, etc... It was a 5 point miss in PA and the trendline of polls showed Clinton's lead collapsing. A 5 point miss is decently large.

This year they are weighting by education and there's no evidence to show Biden's lead collapsing in PA.

Cool, so we're definitely looking at trash numbers then. Weighting by education is MORONIC.

[kaelleria]

Cool, so we're definitely looking at trash numbers then. Weighting by education is MORONIC.

Other than it being the largest predictor of Trump support in 2016!

[Edge-]

"Of all the issues regarding Hunter Biden and Joe Biden's possible influence peddling, another key question deserves an answer: 'Where’s Hunter’s money?'"

This is the burning question for conservative media. I hope nobody tells them that Trump's kids do business internationally all over, including in China where the family apparently pays more in taxes than they do in the US.

Man, I guess the Hunter shit may have actually been the "October Surprise".

Fuckin weakass shit.

[Milchshake]

Other than it being the largest predictor of Trump support in 2016!

Careful, pointing out that White Males with No College are largest cohort in Trump's base, really embarrasses them.... for some reason
They gonna call the wambulance.

[Redwyrm]

"Of all the issues regarding Hunter Biden and Joe Biden's possible influence peddling, another key question deserves an answer: 'Where’s Hunter’s money?'"

This is the burning question for conservative media. I hope nobody tells them that Trump's kids do business internationally all over, including in China where the family apparently pays more in taxes than they do in the US.

Man, I guess the Hunter shit may have actually been the "October Surprise".

Fuckin weakass shit.

Just like with everything Trump. Over Promise, Under Deliver

[Eviscero]

Other than it being the largest predictor of Trump support in 2016!

My issue is using a non-representative sample (of education) to derive weights to correct for collecting a non-representative sample (of votes). Just spend the time and money to collect a meaningful sample and do it only as frequently as you need to to capture the dynamics of public opinion and/or in response to major events that could impinge on said public opinion.

[DingDongKing]

The Republican Party can survive this, but not in the direction they're going.

(Unfortunately) The Republican Party will be fine and will survive this. They haven't been a party of burgeoning opinions since Reagan/Bush 41. And even back then, they were essentially mouthpieces for special interest groups, lobbyists and think-tanks. The party is so politically bankrupt that someone will always prop them up in exchange for the party advocating their goals. The only difference is how cultish Trump has been.

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-...emic-has-ended

Trump campaign spokesperson goes on CNN to talk. Gets asked about the WH release touting that Trump has "ended" the pandemic.

When asked about it, claims he didn't write it. Claims he hasn't read it. Claims he can't comment on it when the words are read to him.

What's the fuckin point of him being on beyond that? Interview should have been shut down. "Clearly you're not staying informed and aren't doing our viewers a service by coming on unprepared. We're happy to reschedule later so we don't waste viewers time."

[DingDongKing]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-...emic-has-ended

Trump campaign spokesperson goes on CNN to talk. Gets asked about the WH release touting that Trump has "ended" the pandemic.

When asked about it, claims he didn't write it. Claims he hasn't read it. Claims he can't comment on it when the words are read to him.

What's the fuckin point of him being on beyond that? Interview should have been shut down. "Clearly you're not staying informed and aren't doing our viewers a service by coming on unprepared. We're happy to reschedule later so we don't waste viewers time."

I'm guessing they've stopped sending Brian Morgenstern and replaced him with WASP No.542?

[Edge-]

I'm guessing they've stopped sending Brian Morgenstern and replaced him with WASP No.542?

I dunno, but I'm listening to this guy claiming he hasn't been to a rally in a while...as the press secretary for the Trump campaign. I mean, I get that he's not gonna be at every one but like...that's kinda an important person to have at a MEDIA EVENT like a rally. Because they're media events at the end of the day.

Fucking clown shows are actually organized, and comparing Trump's campaign/administration to them does clown shows a disservice.

[Breccia]

Trump campaign spokesperson goes on CNN to talk. Gets asked about the WH release touting that Trump has "ended" the pandemic.

When asked about it, claims he didn't write it. Claims he hasn't read it. Claims he can't comment on it when the words are read to him.

To be fair, fuck that guy.

To give him credit he doesn't deserve, he doesn't work in the WH. But yeah, that's not just a non-defense, it's admission there is no defense.

By the way, the 24-hour challenge I gave Trump supporters on that very topic seems to have ended, but I didn't expect CNN to throw in with me.

[PhaelixWW]

Nah... the Wisconsin poll is an outlier and is discounted a bit because of that.

The change in projection is due to the clock running out.

It's absolutely an outlier, but it's so hugely an outlier, and from an A+ source, that it singlehandedly moved their projection from +7.1 to +9.1 for Biden. Their model thusly moved from 89/11 Biden yesterday to 94/6 Biden today.

[CastletonSnob]

An article on Newsweek says Trump has an 88% chance of winning if the popular vote is close.

I don't think the popular vote will be close. If anything, Trump will lose the popular vote worse than he did in 2016.

[Edge-]

I know the Trump campaign leaving hundreds of supporters stranded in the freezing cold, causing some to be hospitalized for hypothermia. But this headline is...ooph.

Trump’s Omaha rally compared to Fyre Festival after hundreds left stranded in near-freezing temperatures

[Belize]

An article on Newsweek says Trump has an 88% chance of winning if the popular vote is close.

I don't think the popular vote will be close. If anything, Trump will lose the popular vote worse than he did in 2016.

Newsweek also posted an opinion piece talking about how Trump had great big amazing rallies and Biden stayed in his basement, so take with a spoonful of salt.

[zEmini]

Trump down too a 11% chance to win. That is still too close for comfort. I have had the RNG gods in my mount farming routine bless me with chances lower than that.